Do You Think The Oilers Have Done Enough To Help McDrai Win The Cup?

[Luigi Lemieux]

After Crosby got injured, the Pens went from #3 in PTS % to #12 the rest of the way and lost in the first round of the playoffs. They were a PLUS 31 before injury and a PLUS 1 afterwards, so they were a bit lucky to be at the point % they were.

As for the OP, it needs to be repeated that the 2009 Pens had an inferior supporting cast to the Oilers in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

12th in the nhl and ~100 point pace is still incredible for the team minus Crosby and Malkin. Edmonton is probably 30th without McDrai.

Imo it's both, management has been horrendous and they duo hasn't always played the right way, a winning style.

 

[Magic 8 Ball]

needs more Skinners imo

I got a fever...and the only prescription...is more Skinner

 

[avsfan9]

They can have all the 4 and 5 point games they like but when you let in 6 you still lose

 

[Voight]

No because they've failed to surrounded those two with high end talent or any depth at all.

 

[daver]

12th in the nhl and ~100 point pace is still incredible for the team minus Crosby and Malkin. Edmonton is probably 30th without McDrai.

Imo it's both, management has been horrendous and they duo hasn't always played the right way, a winning style.

Where do the 08/09 Pens finish without Malkin and Crosby?

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I think they have done enough.

At first I thought McDavid was a Choker especially after that playoff series v the Jets.

After that McDavid joined Draisaitl in being playoff beasts.
Here's the thing though. We have a cap they were eating up 21 million or 20 to 25 % of the cap. They have to be the team.

So the overall team has to be lifted by them. Well both players at EVen strength will cheat. When it works it's amazing. If they were not the superstars they were they would be benched.


Hyman dropped 50
RNH signed a sweet heart deal (not even talking about 100 points season he straight up is a 7 or 8 million guy)
They may have overpaid Nurse a few million.
Bouchard out of nowhere.
Ekholm trade

But sometimes I see that defensive zone coverage by the stars and at times I wonder if any goalie that isn't among the best would swim and not sink.

Like Shesterkin would do great for them but they can't afford the 11.5 million he commands now.

They were one period from the cup
They can win it all.

 

[PainForShane]

I think they have done enough.

At first I thought McDavid was a Choker especially after that playoff series v the Jets.

After that McDavid joined Draisaitl in being playoff beasts.
Here's the thing though. We have a cap they were eating up 21 million or 20 to 25 % of the cap. They have to be the team.

So the overall team has to be lifted by them. Well both players at EVen strength will cheat. When it works it's amazing. If they were not the superstars they were they would be benched.


Hyman dropped 50
RNH signed a sweet heart deal (not even talking about 100 points season he straight up is a 7 or 8 million guy)
They may have overpaid Nurse a few million.
Bouchard out of nowhere.
Ekholm trade

But sometimes I see that defensive zone coverage by the stars and at times I wonder if any goalie that isn't among the best would swim and not sink.

Like Shesterkin would do great for them but they can't afford the 11.5 million he commands now.

They were one period from the cup
They can win it all.

Well said. In the meantime, everyone clowning on Skinner is "forgetting" he let up only 16 goals in seven games in the finals (0.909 save percentage), that's more than respectable even considering that awful misplay in game 3. Obviously if he lets up 6 goals a game they lose, but he only let up 2 both game 7s (Florida and also Vancouver in the western conf semis). He played well enough to give his team a chance to win, that's all you can really ask for.

If you can only manage a single goal in the most important game of the year, my guess is it's probably not the goalie's fault if you lose.

Also, their 3rd line is Jeff Skinner (35 goals a couple years ago), Adam Henrique (defensively responsible ~20g scorer most years), Hyman who scored 50+ last year -- I'm not sure there's a better 3rd line in the entire league. Their depth (at least offensively) is clearly there.

 

[Matty Sundin]

If playoffs were to start today, the only team West/East team I wouldn’t call them favorites in a playoff series is Vegas and I wouldn’t be call long them underdogs either as it’s more of a near even series.

The league is still showing effects to of dilution. They have some issues still but all the tops teams this year have some holes or are just not trustworthy.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

They’ve done enough and I think they win it this year

 

[Oneiro]

No.

This is still a terribly constructed team. And their cup run was a nice bit of luck in terms of matchups - absolute tragedy that COL faced DAL too early thanks to this dumb playoff format. They'll be back to being out in round 2 this year.

 

[PaulD]

They built a team that lost to cup champs in :
2022 Aves
2023 Knights
2024 Panthers

Where they have not done enough is in net. They should have been to land one of the many goalies to have switched teams in the last several seasons.
Other than that. Full marks to management.

 

[OilWagon]

It's a process though, who cares if they lose one game. Ultimately you want two dominant lines. Let them work through it. Them knowing they'll be put back together at the slightest hint of trouble is a crutch. Crosby and Malkin didn't play on the same line for like 15 years straight, no matter the score.

Draisaitl has been dominating with his own line plenty this year, doesn't mean knoblauch can't put them together when the moment is right. He also plays them together coming out of a PK, 4 on 4 and in the last minute of play,. It's really quite effective, I suppose the geniuses at hfboards are better coaches then Knoblauch though, even though he has the best record in the league since taking over the team.

 

[tfwnogf]

I think the stars aligned for them last year, I don't know if they'll ever get that close again. Especially with such an old team, and Skinner is not a good goalie. He has flashes where he looks competent, but he's just too unpredictable. Which version of Skinner will they get this year's playoffs? I think he makes the whole team uneasy. How can you play 110% and stay focused when your goalie gives up stinker after stinker. The moves they made in the off season have backfired a little, but they've largely righted the ship after a crap start. Still, so many small, soft players with no teeth is not good for playoff hockey.

Last year's playoffs they dodged Vegas and Colorado who could have taken them out. Both look strong this year and there's also the Wild who seem to have the Oilers' number.

 

[bucks_oil]

I think they have done enough.

At first I thought McDavid was a Choker especially after that playoff series v the Jets.

After that McDavid joined Draisaitl in being playoff beasts.
Here's the thing though. We have a cap they were eating up 21 million or 20 to 25 % of the cap. They have to be the team.

....
They can win it all.

Anytime this discussion comes up, I feel like the "cap hit" point is under appreciated.

THROUGHOUT McDrai's career, Oilers management has been battling against the cap and losing.

• $6M ostensibly dead cap in Lucic - Still $2M in dead cap to this day
• $2M in dead cap in Sekera
• THREE YEARS of $4M LTIR in Klefbom which had these effects:
  • Klefbom was the #1 all-situations Oilers D, and was lost during his prime years (that's tough to recover from)
  • LTIR meant no cap accruals for the deadline in any of those years - this was a huge, under appreciated detriment... ALL of the cup winners recently either cheated LTIR or accrued significant salary for additions... Oilers could do neither
  • Boosted up Nurse so that he got paid artificially high
  • Lost Larsson since his best buddy was gone at the same time his father passed away
• $4M for Koskinen for three years - dead cap within months
• $5M for Jack Campbell - still $2M in dead cap after buyout
• FLAT CAP FOR THE LAST HALF DECADE

So you compare that to Sid and Geno... they were lucky enough to have HoF Fleury and near HoF Letang from the start and managed only 1 cap during their ELC period.

Then, like the Oilers, the mantra was the team was too cap-heavy to properly support the stars.... BUT... unlike Edmonton's situation, the cap was RISING.

In fact, by the time the Pens won cup #2

• The cap had risen by 26%
• Crosby+Malkin's contracts went from being >30% of the cap to being 24% of the cap

In fact if you look at most of the dynamic duos around, they won when their contracts were in the low-20% range.

So the Oilers have a chance this year, because:

• McDrai are low 20's percent of the cap
• Edmonton is accruing cap as we speak
• Kane is $5M that has been unspent... so come deadline we are spending that OR he's coming back... so that cap is dead now, but will be used one way or another
• Drai's contract doesn't kick in till next year

Next year? Oilers are probably screwed for two more years until the cap rises enough to absorb Drai, Bouch and McD's new contracts... but we should be fine at the tail end of their early thirties, a period where guys like Yzerman & Ovechkin hadn't yet won their first cup.

 

[bucks_oil]

No.

This is still a terribly constructed team. And their cup run was a nice bit of luck in terms of matchups - absolute tragedy that COL faced DAL too early thanks to this dumb playoff format. They'll be back to being out in round 2 this year.

Do you apply the same logic to Edmonton the year they lost to Vegas in round 2? Vegas players even saying that was their toughest series?

The playoff format is what it is... also why is it "dumb" that you met up with the 1st in your division in round 2? You guys finished in THIRD. 1st vs 4th and 2nd vs 3rd is about as basic a playoff format as you can get. You finish THIRD and you should be expecting to see the 1st place team in round 2.

Also... in case you tuned out, Edmonton still had to BEAT Dallas, which you failed to do and they accomplished in 6 games.

And finally... because I'm just beside myself why you feel aggrieved by the playoff format.... IF they went back to a 1-8 playoff format (1v8, 4v5,,, 2v7, 3v6), you (4th) STILL would have been facing Dallas in the 2nd round ASSUMING that you beat Edmonton (5th) in your 1st round matchup, which is far from a given.

The only thing "dumb" about the playoff format is that it prioritizes divisions but the schedule does not provide equal gameplay within the division. If you want to prioritize divisional standings, you need to equalize the number of divisional games... which is currently not the case.

 

[Video Nasty]

They can have all the 4 and 5 point games they like but when you let in 6 you still lose

The team had 16 games last season letting up 5 or more goals. They have 7 through 41 games so far this season. They were 10th in goals allowed and 8th so far this season.

For comparison, the Avs had 15 such games last season and have 12 so far through 43 games this season. They were 16th and are currently 23rd.

Careful about casting stones and relying on old perceptions.

 

[SEALBound]

Anytime this discussion comes up, I feel like the "cap hit" point is under appreciated.

THROUGHOUT McDrai's career, Oilers management has been battling against the cap and losing.

• $6M ostensibly dead cap in Lucic - Still $2M in dead cap to this day
• $2M in dead cap in Sekera
• THREE YEARS of $4M LTIR in Klefbom which had these effects:
  • Klefbom was the #1 all-situations Oilers D, and was lost during his prime years (that's tough to recover from)
  • LTIR meant no cap accruals for the deadline in any of those years - this was a huge, under appreciated detriment... ALL of the cup winners recently either cheated LTIR or accrued significant salary for additions... Oilers could do neither
  • Boosted up Nurse so that he got paid artificially high
  • Lost Larsson since his best buddy was gone at the same time his father passed away
• $4M for Koskinen for three years - dead cap within months
• $5M for Jack Campbell - still $2M in dead cap after buyout
• FLAT CAP FOR THE LAST HALF DECADE

So you compare that to Sid and Geno... they were lucky enough to have HoF Fleury and near HoF Letang from the start and managed only 1 cap during their ELC period.

Then, like the Oilers, the mantra was the team was too cap-heavy to properly support the stars.... BUT... unlike Edmonton's situation, the cap was RISING.

In fact, by the time the Pens won cup #2

• The cap had risen by 26%
• Crosby+Malkin's contracts went from being >30% of the cap to being 24% of the cap

In fact if you look at most of the dynamic duos around, they won when their contracts were in the low-20% range.

So the Oilers have a chance this year, because:

• McDrai are low 20's percent of the cap
• Edmonton is accruing cap as we speak
• Kane is $5M that has been unspent... so come deadline we are spending that OR he's coming back... so that cap is dead now, but will be used one way or another
• Drai's contract doesn't kick in till next year

Next year? Oilers are probably screwed for two more years until the cap rises enough to absorb Drai, Bouch and McD's new contracts... but we should be fine at the tail end of their early thirties, a period where guys like Yzerman & Ovechkin hadn't yet won their first cup.

Good post and comparison.

I think when you get stars like McDavid and Drai, it is vital that you use their ELCs to go for it. Easier said than done, I know but looking at the Pens - they still had Malkin on his ELC in 09 and he wins the Conn Smyth. After that, he gets a matching $8.7mil. From 2010 to 2015, it was difficult to surround Sid and Geno with the depth needed to win. There just wasn't that much money to go around and it got tougher when Letang got his $7.25mil deal. Not that much different than McDrai+Nurse right now.

The only thing that really saved the Penguins and got them their B2B cups was that they were able to swing a trade for Kessel (which is not a situation that comes up all that often) and they got 5 players on each deals from WBS that were able to have a legit impact - Sheary, Rust, Wilson, Kuhnhackl, and perhaps most importantly, Matt Murray. The next year, they were able to add Guentzel. But in 2015, the cap had risen enough since their deals that it made adding a guy like Kessel possible if you can offset it with the youthful impact players. Not to mention, every trade JR made that year was just gold (Scuderi for Daley, Perron for Hagelin, Schultz for a 3rd, and Dupuis retires). It's tough to get that many home runs in such a short stretch.

That is where I see the biggest difference right now. Instead of adding Sheary, Rust, and Murray, the Oilers are left with trying guys like Perry, Skinner, Henrique, and relying on Skinner (who isn't terrible but a clear one or two tiers down from what Murray did in 16 and 17). This is where I think letting Holloway and Broberg is going to truly bite them in the butt. Those are the young impact kids you need. I would have been shopping Kane and RNH in order to keep those kids.

Drai moving up to $14mil and then McDavid likely getting the same but probably more...I mean, that's going to continue to kill their ability to get that depth needed. If Kane is truly LTIRetired, maybe McDavid could opt for a shorter $12.5mil deal. Take the $2.5-3 he leaves on the table and combine that with Kane's $5mil, that gives them the ability to bring in a $8mil player or a solid $6mil player and $2mil role player. That could be of actual impact to their chances vs padding their bank accounts just that much more. But frankly, Drai taking the $14mil makes me think that the "take less to win" isn't really on their radar. I expect McDavid to get his purse and they will continue to be a two man team until they slow down to the point where they are no longer contenders. But hey, at least their be able to cry themselves to sleep on a fat stack of cash.

 

[PocketNines]

The last 3 seasons their roster has been good enough to win the cup

I spat coffee

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

Just goes to show how piss poor management can sewer a team that has 2 of the best players. The window is starting to close and will only get harder once the big boy contracts kick in. It took management way too long to build up to this point of being a contender. I do feel if Edmonton was in Florida they would've won a cup or two by now.

 

[Coffey]

Just goes to show how piss poor management can sewer a team that has 2 of the best players. The window is starting to close and will only get harder once the big boy contracts kick in. It took management way too long to build up to this point of being a contender. I do feel if Edmonton was in Florida they would've won a cup or two by now.

Chia was just so so bad.
And Holland had some definite questionable takes.

 

[Sharksfan66]

No. For as much as people talk about their playoff success, would you feel comfortable with your team competing for the cup with the goaltending duos they've been running out there?

Watching SJ, Colorado, Washington, NJ, Vegas, Ottawa go out and get legit starters in the last few years shows it's totally doable. Colorado especially redid their entire tandem mid-season. Seems crazy to me Edmonton hasn't tried this yet. Again, it's not like the options for an upgrade haven't been there.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Skinner wouldnt win a cup with the 80s oilers

No. For as much as people talk about their playoff success, would you feel comfortable with your team competing for the cup with the goaltending duos they've been running out there?

Watching SJ, Colorado, Washington, NJ, Vegas, Ottawa go out and get legit starters in the last few years shows it's totally doable. Colorado especially redid their entire tandem mid-season. Seems crazy to me Edmonton hasn't tried this yet. Again, it's not like the options for an upgrade haven't been there.

For whatever reason it seems like they feel that skinner is the guy

He must look great in practice or something

 

[Video Nasty]

I spat coffee

He’ll say anything to protect Crosby and his legacy.

 

[bucks_oil]

Good post and comparison.

I think when you get stars like McDavid and Drai, it is vital that you use their ELCs to go for it. Easier said than done, I know but looking at the Pens - they still had Malkin on his ELC in 09 and he wins the Conn Smyth. After that, he gets a matching $8.7mil. From 2010 to 2015, it was difficult to surround Sid and Geno with the depth needed to win. There just wasn't that much money to go around and it got tougher when Letang got his $7.25mil deal. Not that much different than McDrai+Nurse right now.

The only thing that really saved the Penguins and got them their B2B cups was that they were able to swing a trade for Kessel (which is not a situation that comes up all that often) and they got 5 players on each deals from WBS that were able to have a legit impact - Sheary, Rust, Wilson, Kuhnhackl, and perhaps most importantly, Matt Murray. The next year, they were able to add Guentzel. But in 2015, the cap had risen enough since their deals that it made adding a guy like Kessel possible if you can offset it with the youthful impact players. Not to mention, every trade JR made that year was just gold (Scuderi for Daley, Perron for Hagelin, Schultz for a 3rd, and Dupuis retires). It's tough to get that many home runs in such a short stretch.

That is where I see the biggest difference right now. Instead of adding Sheary, Rust, and Murray, the Oilers are left with trying guys like Perry, Skinner, Henrique, and relying on Skinner (who isn't terrible but a clear one or two tiers down from what Murray did in 16 and 17). This is where I think letting Holloway and Broberg is going to truly bite them in the butt. Those are the young impact kids you need. I would have been shopping Kane and RNH in order to keep those kids.

Drai moving up to $14mil and then McDavid likely getting the same but probably more...I mean, that's going to continue to kill their ability to get that depth needed. If Kane is truly LTIRetired, maybe McDavid could opt for a shorter $12.5mil deal. Take the $2.5-3 he leaves on the table and combine that with Kane's $5mil, that gives them the ability to bring in a $8mil player or a solid $6mil player and $2mil role player. That could be of actual impact to their chances vs padding their bank accounts just that much more. But frankly, Drai taking the $14mil makes me think that the "take less to win" isn't really on their radar. I expect McDavid to get his purse and they will continue to be a two man team until they slow down to the point where they are no longer contenders. But hey, at least their be able to cry themselves to sleep on a fat stack of cash.

Well... I think they DID try to shop Kane this summer, but had no takers.

Disagree with you that shopping RNH to keep Broberg and Holloway was the way to go. Broberg and Holloway lost their value to the contending Oilers the moment they signed those offer sheets. As you say, you need young CHEAP talent pushing in and StLouis threw a wrench in that plan, self-imposed as it may have been.

As for Drai sticking it to the Oilers at $14M, numbers don't really support that claim. Malkin's $8.7M, which was widely heralded as a steal at the time, would be $13.6M today. I think there is some degree of compensation for Drai being one of the biggest value contracts over the last 8 years... I suppose that's the price you pay to keep him happy. If McD signs for similar we'll be ok.

Those vet players we signed were done so because they were cheap and willing to take less to win... very similar to Kessel back in the day.

As for youth... I expect you'll see a few of Savoie, Akey, O'Reilly, Rodrigue and Philp make some impact over the next two seasons when the cap is tight... we need that.

If you project out to 2026-27, the cap situation doesn't seem too terrible. Cap is projected to be at least 97M by then: NHL Salary Cap Jump to $97 Million Will Save Several Teams

Oilers would be set up like this:

RNH ($5.1) McD ($16) Hyman ($5.5)
XXX ($5M) Drai ($14M) XXX ($3M)
Savoie ($1M ELC) XXX ($3M) XXX ($1M)
Janmark ($1.5M) Philp/O'Reilly ($1M ELC) XXX $1M

Ekholm ($4M) Bouchard ($9.5)
Nurse ($9.25) XXX ($4M)
XXX ($2M) XXX ($1M)

XXX ($5M)
Rodrigue ($1M ELC)

Extras: 2 x $1M

Dead Cap: Campbell $2.6M

TOTAL: 97.5

It's tight for that year, but loosens up thereafter as the cap continues to rise and there won't be anyone getting raises for a few years. Older guys like Hyman, Ekholm and RNH get replaced by similar priced guys or if still capable of contributing, resign for less than their current salaries.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Not good enough on defense

Not stable enough in net

Lack depth in bottom 6 forwards