Do You Think Ovechkin's Legacy Will Improve over Time

[MeHateHe]

Ovechkin is 5th all-time in adjusted points.

Interesting anecdote. Has nothing to do with what I’m saying.

He's one of the most physical players of all time. The Capitals have won playoff series in large part due to physicality.

10-12 years ago.

If anyone is saying goals alone are the case for Ovie, then they are either 1) Extremely bad at evaluating hockey players; or 2) Not making a good faith argument.

Look at the last two pages. Some guys with Capitals gear in the avatars are saying exactly that.

ETA: Okay, not just Capitals gear, but also guys with Soviet gear in their avatars, because Moscow and Washington are, in fact, two different places.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Plus, assists is a team-reliant stat. An average player can rake up assists on a stacked team. The same cannot be said about goals.

What does "assists is a team-reliant stat" mean...?

Unless that is the explanation right there, in which case, the opposite term is more common. "Bad team scorer", referring to goal scorers because "someone's gonna score". This tends to favor "streak and score" (as I call them) wingers with limited playmaking/vision/hockey sense - Owen Tippett, Anthony Duclair, P.A. Parenteau, Mike Bullard, etc.

Assists (well, play drivers and playmakers with consistency) are "built"...goals are scored. So if you're on a bad team with no help, it's harder to consistently generate assists because every time you move the puck,.you're at a greater risk of a play not being successful because of the lack of skill around him.

In Philly, for instance, Tippett gets the puck, skates as fast as he can down the wing, and fires to the far top corner...if it goes in, it goes in...if it doesn't and it wraps around the boards for an opposing breakout, well, who cares, they're down 4-1 anyway haha

 

[wetcoast]

Google trends is a good measure for popularity (selling the game). Ovechkin vs McDavid over the last half decade:

View attachment 1026262


Ovechkin vs Crosby:

View attachment 1026278

Could be Bots but the orginal assertion really has little to no meaning or revleance anyways.

Hockey people are better arbiters of greatness and importance than random masses be it people or bots.

 

[MadLuke]

Plus, assists is a team-reliant stat. An average player can rake up assists on a stacked team. The same cannot be said about goals.

Toronto Zach Hyman and Edmonton Hyman scored goal at quite different pace and he was past 28 years old when the trade happened so we can doubt it is because he got better. He was playing 19 minutes a night with the Leaf, would make significant deployment change being the reason also doubtful.

Last 3 leafs season, Hyman scored at a .89 goal per 60 at 5v5 and 2.59 on the PP, put him with 2 of the best passer of all time and make a winger and he went to 1.18 at EV and 2.92 on the power play his first 3 Oilers seasons.

The average player (that not a goalscorer) on a stacked team will probably not make the first PP unit (and could miss the second one, almost by definition an average bottom top 6, higher end third liner would fall short on a stacked team) and will have an hard time racking assists I think.

A scorer with a finishing touch could get a spot on a great playmaker wing, power play in front of the net and rack goals, maybe one is more than the others but I am not sure how clear it is.

Maybe it is a montreal bias, but we saw boderline NHL players raking goal on the powerplay when Markov was driving them (the MA Bergeron type), not much the other way around come to mind. But maybe it is no team give a Bergeron level D without a flashy great slapshot a chance to play to start with.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Fluke assist seasons are usually more like a good assist guy having a lot more than typical, like the year Huberdeau had 85, or even Gretzky in 1985-86 which even by his standards was a one-off, rather than a 20 assist guy randomly having 50 one year. You aren't too likely to just put a random guy as 1st line center/1st unit powerplay to give them very high likelihood of generating a high assist season completely out of nowhere. Will have to check on Defensemen who do sometimes get randomly put on first powerplay to get a lot of assists that way and could sort of right place/right time if they wind up on a really high scoring team likely pick up a lot of easier 2nd assists. Better question what to make of Forwards that have really high assist to goal ratios (Thornton 2.58 assist to goal ratio for instance) and to what extent, if any, their point totals/finishes relatively overstate their offensive contribution.

 

[Gerulaitis]

Google trends is a good measure for popularity (selling the game). Ovechkin vs McDavid over the last half decade:

View attachment 1026262


Ovechkin vs Crosby:

View attachment 1026278

Great research. Thanks

 

[Gerulaitis]

There really are no good or standout examples of a great goal scorer making a good playmaker a great playmaker though, as there are with a great playmaker making a good but not great goal scorer a threat to win the goalscoring crown. You had Forsberg and Thornton propelling good but not great goal scorers like Cheechoo and Gagné into fighting for the goalscoring title, for instance, which they wouldn't have done without that support.

If assists are so easy or random to come by in abundance for anyone, shouldn't a Cheechoo equivalent player at least have challenged for the assist crown in any random year at some point?

There are obviously symbiotic or semi-symbiotic relationships though relating to this. Hull & Oates was a symbiotic one, Mogilny & Lafontaine as well. Anson Carter and Alex Burrows certainly helped the Sedins, but they hardly made them, so semi-symbiotic at best.

But not all goals are created equal. It's incredibly hard to do everything on your own goal scoring wise, unless you're prime Lemieux, or young Ovechkin, or Bure going end-to-end on course to destroying his health.

I'll repeat you can't have assists without actual goals. Somebody has to convert your pass and beat a goaltender (in most cases).

Some players are better at setting up their teammates, some are better at scoring goals

 

[Victorias]

I'll repeat you can't have assists without actual goals. Somebody has to convert your pass and beat a goaltender (in most cases).

Some players are better at setting up their teammates, some are better at scoring goals

You can’t have an assist without a goal because that’s how assists are defined. That doesn’t say anything about the value of playmaking relative to finishing.

A playmaker may make tons of high value plays (e.g. puck carries and passes into high danger areas) without getting credit via assist because a goal was not ultimately scored. The lack of a finish doesn’t mean those plays didn’t have value - it’s just harder to assign it.

If you really wanted to approximate the value of different actions, you would need to model the real-time change in win probability based on that action. In other words, if you’re in a 2 on 1 and the defenseman plays the pass the correct play (which adds the most win probability) is to shoot and vice versa if he plays the shot.

But this gets both extremely complicated to both model and understand. So, we continue to use points as a proxy for involvement in creating goals. It’s definitely not a perfect measure but generally the players with the most points are the best offensively.

As far as this relates to Ovi, I think he is one of the greatest ever because he is the best finisher/shooter ever and has therefore contributed to a ton of wins in that way. However, it’s fair to acknowledge that he doesn’t contribute much in terms of goal creation via other means. Therefore, I would rank him behind someone like McDavid whose total contribution via finishes, puck carries, and passes exceeds Ovi’s. You can approximate this with goals and assists, model it with a more sophisticated method, or just watch and state your opinion. There are advantages and disadvantages to each approach and that’s why we have discussions.

 

[Gerulaitis]

You can’t have an assist without a goal because that’s how assists are defined. That doesn’t say anything about the value of playmaking relative to finishing.

A playmaker may make tons of high value plays (e.g. puck carries and passes into high danger areas) without getting credit via assist because a goal was not ultimately scored. The lack of a finish doesn’t mean those plays didn’t have value - it’s just harder to assign it.

If you really wanted to approximate the value of different actions, you would need to model the real-time change in win probability based on that action. In other words, if you’re in a 2 on 1 and the defenseman plays the pass the correct play (which adds the most win probability) is to shoot and vice versa if he plays the shot.

But this gets both extremely complicated to both model and understand. So, we continue to use points as a proxy for involvement in creating goals. It’s definitely not a perfect measure but generally the players with the most points are the best offensively.

As far as this relates to Ovi, I think he is one of the greatest ever because he is the best finisher/shooter ever and has therefore contributed to a ton of wins in that way. However, it’s fair to acknowledge that he doesn’t contribute much in terms of goal creation via other means. Therefore, I would rank him behind someone like McDavid whose total contribution via finishes, puck carries, and passes exceeds Ovi’s. You can approximate this with goals and assists, model it with a more sophisticated method, or just watch and state your opinion. There are advantages and disadvantages to each approach and that’s why we have discussions.

Ovechkin scores many more goals than McDavid.
He's stronger leader.
He hits harder.
He's ahead McDavid - at least for now

 

[Victorias]

Ovechkin scores many more goals than McDavid.
He's stronger leader.
He hits harder.
He's ahead McDavid - at least for now

As explained above, McDavid creates significantly more goals overall through his own finishes and set ups for teammates. Yes, Ovechkin is more physical and I’m not in the locker room so I don’t know about leadership.

Something to consider is that the better a player is individually, the more he needs to utilize teammates in order to generate goals for his team. Defenders know McDavid can fly or stickhandle by them, so he attracts 2-3 of them and has to be able to set up his teammates. That means he will score fewer goals but still create more overall.

 

[MadLuke]

As explained above, McDavid creates significantly more goals overall through his own finishes and set ups for teammates. Yes, Ovechkin is more physical and I’m not in the locker room so I don’t know about leadership.

Than out of prime Ovechkin sure.

Prime vs prime I wonder...

At 5v5 Prime Ovechkin team scored at the same exact same rate as a prime Crosby team was:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

His team was shooting the most of any non RedWings team when he was on the ice.

McDavid is one among many in that regard:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Solid Top 5 and always in the mix... but...

McDavid powerplay is always top of the league so maybe an advantage there, but Ovechkin power play was also number 1 with a clear separation:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

McDavid prime seem much longer, so it should be a clear enough win at the end, but prime versus prime, significantly more goal generated by one or the other (with obviously taking into account how much scoring did rise between the 2 player peak) ? Is that really clear ? Peak Ovechkin was leading the league in points, over peak Malkin that only played 2 less games, 1.42 ppg vs Malkin 1.28 and Crosby 1.35, it was not a goals or points debatge situation. His teams scored the most goals in the league by a good amount and the most points in the east by a good amount, so not a free calories numbers versus team success either.

 

[wetcoast]

Ovechkin scores many more goals than McDavid.
He's stronger leader.
He hits harder.
He's ahead McDavid - at least for now

McDavid has played 9 seasons do you have Ovi in his first 10 seasons ahead of McDavid?

Does anyone?

Even as of now there is a case for McDavid over Ovi when you factor in his 9 year prime but that will be a moot point soon enough anyways barring a catastrophic injury.

 

[Victorias]

Than out of prime Ovechkin sure.

Prime vs prime I wonder...

At 5v5 Prime Ovechkin team scored at the same exact same rate as a prime Crosby team was:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

His team was shooting the most of any non RedWings team when he was on the ice.

McDavid is one among many in that regard:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Solid Top 5 and always in the mix... but...

McDavid powerplay is always top of the league so maybe an advantage there, but Ovechkin power play was also number 1 with a clear separation:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

McDavid prime seem much longer, so seem like it should be a clear enough win at the end, but prime versus prime, significantly more goal generated by one or the other (with obviously taking into account how much scoring did rise between the 2 player peak) ? Is that really clear ? Peak Ovechkin was leading the league in points, over peak Malkin that only played 2 less games, 1.42 ppg vs Malkin 1.28 and Crosby 1.35, it was not a goals or points debatge situation. His teams scored the most goals in the league by a good amount and the most points in the east by a good amount, so not a free calories numbers versus team success either.

Yeah, if you isolate to three year peak I think they are comparable. And that makes sense considering they have the highest peaks of any players over the last 20 years.

However, if you look at any larger window (up to the length of McDavid’s career), it’s no longer close.

 

[Gerulaitis]

As explained above, McDavid creates significantly more goals overall through his own finishes and set ups for teammates. Yes, Ovechkin is more physical and I’m not in the locker room so I don’t know about leadership.

Something to consider is that the better a player is individually, the more he needs to utilize teammates in order to generate goals for his team. Defenders know McDavid can fly or stickhandle by them, so he attracts 2-3 of them and has to be able to set up his teammates. That means he will score fewer goals but still create more overall.

Let's make it clear and simple:

McDavid is a center, a playmaker.

Ovechkin is a winger, a shooter.

One mostly creates goals like you said , the other scores them.

Ovechkin excels in his department (outscored everyone in history) more than McDavid excels in his.

We can revisit this conversation when McDavid breaks the all time assists record.

 

[Gerulaitis]

McDavid has played 9 seasons do you have Ovi in his first 10 seasons ahead of McDavid?

Does anyone?

Even as of now there is a case for McDavid over Ovi when you factor in his 9 year prime but that will be a moot point soon enough anyways barring a catastrophic injury.

We compare their careers. Not 9 years Vs 9 years. McDavid has a chance to be ranked above Ovechkin in the future. Time will tell

 

[Michael Farkas]

We can revisit this conversation when McDavid breaks the all time assists record.

This might be necessary if he scored 7 goals a year haha

"Simple" really over-sells what's being hawked here...

 

[jigglysquishy]

McDavid has shown the ability to be both an elite goalscorer and elite playmaker.

G: 1, 2, 6, 7, 7, 10
A: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3

He's absolutely a much better playmaker. But seasons like 2021 or 2023 where he is best/next best at both are incredible.

It's just a different level of skillset.

 

[Victorias]

McDavid has shown the ability to be both an elite goalscorer and elite playmaker.

G: 1, 2, 6, 7, 7, 10
A: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3

He's absolutely a much better playmaker. But seasons like 2021 or 2023 where he is best/next best at both are incredible.

It's just a different level of skillset.

Exactly.

Meanwhile Ovi’s best assist finishes are 6, 6, 10 and the two years he was 6th in assists he was outside the top 10 in goals. I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

So, yeah, Ovi is a better pure goal scorer than McDavid is a pure “assist maker”. But when you factor in McDavid’s goal scoring to derive his overall offensive impact, there’s no metric that makes Ovi comparable unless perhaps you look at a narrow window of three years.

Think about it differently: the guy with the most assists all-time after Gretzky is Ron Francis. Does that make him better than McDavid as a playmaker or overall offensive threat?

 

[Gerulaitis]

This might be necessary if he scored 7 goals a year haha

"Simple" really over-sells what's being hawked here...

Well, McDavid had only one 50+goal season so far.

 

[WarriorofTime]

McDavid will pretty easily be over both Ovechkin and Crosby. Doesn’t need a cup for me either (in salary cap era, individual
players have even less control over cup than before, everyone is between 0-3 cups if you look around the league and I think even 3 is going to be more unobtainable, outside of the random Pat Maroon type, since the league got rid of those really long term to lower the aav type deals, at least until they add a luxury tax, re-structuring or bird rights or some other way to go over the cap to retain players you already have). He’s very easily best player in the salary cap era and will likely hold the title for a long time.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Well, McDavid had only one 50+goal season so far.

Yup, folks can count all right...

The one season he made a concerted effort to shoot more and take more pucks to the net, he put in 65 or whatever it was and led the league. Just like when another, uh, not amazing goal scorer in Crosby led the league in goals, effectively, on a dare...

It's interesting how the smart, balanced attackers can do things like that...even though goals are just so darn hard, while you can trip over two assists just walking into the rink haha

I just don't feel like enough work has been done here to really dig into to the anatomy of a goal to justify some of these really large scale arguments...

 

[Greatzsky 99]

I think most people (rightly) put Ovechkin as the second best player of this era. There is a significant concrete gap between Crosby and Ovechkin.

However, what happens when people who saw both players and lived in this era get older and become the minority?

On paper, Ovechkin has a slight lead in individual awards. 3 to 2 Harts, 8 First team all stars to 4 and probably most important of all, he will probably have the goal record.

Now those of us growing up in this era know how many awards Crosby might've gotten if not for the injuries and how much centre depth is better than winger depth so the first team all stars are misleading....but when the majority of hockey fans didn't grow up in this period look up the players on wikipedia...won't Ovechkin look like he was the better player?

They'll dismiss most of the writers of this era as having anti-Russian bias or something.

I myself am a Capitals and Ovechkin fan so I don't consider this a tragedy exactly. I just think historiography is an interesting topic.

Good question, in about 50 years, if someone look at stats, Ovi will be number one in the most valueble stat.

 

[CactusCap]

It blows my mind that we have this many sad pathetic people watching hockey who would willingly argue for hours and hours that Alex f***ing ovechkin isn’t one of the 10 greatest players to ever play the game. There is only one reason this happens and we all know what it is.

 

[K Fleur]

Simplifying aspects of hockey as separate departments is pretty silly.

Acting like the sport is your local Home Depot and Ovechkin is better in the electrical department than McDavid is in the lumber department. Pretty stupid Lol

 

[Michael Farkas]

It blows my mind that we have this many sad pathetic people watching hockey who would willingly argue for hours and hours that Alex f***ing ovechkin isn’t one of the 10 greatest players to ever play the game. There is only one reason this happens and we all know what it is.

Intently watching 100+ years of hockey...?