Do You Think Ovechkin's Legacy Will Improve over Time

[Michael Farkas]

That would not likely be true for the headman of a play. It would be likely for defensemen who are often "behind" the play.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Isn’t there something floating out there to how Ovechkin basically consistently outperforms his xGF in large part because nobody else can consistently compete with his massive outperformance of xGoals off middle range scoring chances? Basically look at how Washington has run their powerplay for basically twenty years for instance.

 

[Regal]

Agreed. It's the same thing with draft prospects, it's like, "ok, this guy doesn't do too much...not a real play driver, doesn't impact much shift to shift. But if you get the puck on his stick, it's got a higher chance of going in the net than any other stick out there" haha - I had to break my own formula last year for Cole Eiserman. His scoring ability is a 10 out of 9. The rest of his game is mush. But, what's the thing they're counting on the scoreboard? Right.
It's so hard to figure out where that ranks. And it's entirely different than other single dimensional things...sure, the 4th liner that just occupies space is probably not as useful as the guy who makes physical plays on the puck. But no one is going to go nuts over that. It's a 4th liner.

With Ovechkin, it's like even if he's worth - say - -0.37 goals per most games over the last few years...who can make up that ground faster? He’s a wrist flick away from flipping that faux equation. Really tough.

Yea I think it can be so difficult to rank players when they’re not doing both the scoring and the play driving. And while the goal is to put the puck in the net, that’s also not going to happen without a transition game and/or cycle game, etc. As a Canucks fan it makes me think about last year where Boeser had 40 goals and Garland had 47 points, but I consider them about equal contributors to the team because of the massive gulf in everything else they brought to the team and how they produced those points.

At the same time, it kind of puts into perspective that as much as we love to rank players on here, ultimately a team is comprised of a bunch of parts and you need a mix of skills to make it work. A team of 12 Ovechkin’s at forward would probably be a lot worse than the Caps currently are, but having that scoring ability on the team is also more valuable than replacing him with another Strome or Protas or Wilson level player.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Isn’t there something floating out there to how Ovechkin basically consistently outperforms his xGF in large part because nobody else can consistently compete with his massive outperformance of xGoals off middle range scoring chances? Basically look at how Washington has run their powerplay for basically twenty years for instance.

Yeah, any xGF model underrates players who can score from a distance by its very nature, and Ovechkin is the best one of those. It's not really a flaw in the metric because the whole thing about elite talents is that they do unexpected things, and if you force a model to account for every individual shooter's ability you don't really have a model anymore, you just have...reality, which we already had before we started doing math.

 

[Regal]

Yeah, any xGF model underrates players who can score from a distance by its very nature, and Ovechkin is the best one of those. It's not really a flaw in the metric because the whole thing about elite talents is that they do unexpected things, and if you force a model to account for every individual shooter's ability you don't really have a model anymore, you just have...reality, which we already had before we started doing math.

Over enough of a sample you can also kind of adjust for this with elite players. Someone like Draisaitl is the same way. And it’s one of those things where some nuance is always needed. Ovechkin’s performance this year is so beyond the expected models that we have to assume a degree of variance is helping.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Forget the goals record.

If he won another cup this year while winning a Conn Smythe how much would that boost his legacy?

 

[psycat]

Already "improved" beyond reason so pretty safe yes.

 

[wetcoast]

Forget the goals record.

If he won another cup this year while winning a Conn Smythe how much would that boost his legacy?

That's something that we will probably never know as yes the Capitals could win the SC but the probability of Ovi being the Conn Smythe winner would be really small unless something miraculous happens.

 

[Sentinel]

That's something that we will probably never know as yes the Capitals could win the SC but the probability of Ovi being the Conn Smythe winner would be really small unless something miraculous happens.

If he leads in goals again, a CS is a given.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

If he leads in goals again, a CS is a given.

Prediction right now: Hunter Shepard will get the Conn Smythe.

(The nice part is that no one will give a hoot when I inevitably miss this one, but I can take big credit if it lands.)

 

[wetcoast]

If he leads in goals again, a CS is a given.

Like I said it will take something miraculous, just watch him play he doesn't drive play at all and is a defensively liability and there are no ENG in the playoffs.

His last 4 playoff series are more indicative of what might happen this post season.

There is no shame in that he is 39 years old, his legacy is what it is.

 

[Run the Gauntlet]

If he leads in goals again, a CS is a given.

When was the last time a 39 won playoff MVP?

 

[Hoser]

Seem revisionist a bit, the year after they won the cup Ovechkin had "only" 607 goals and just turned 33... how many people had the idea of the goal record being in play back then ?

And the Capitals were the cup champ, had a 104 pts season, third in the east, we can bet a lot of money that winning a back to back cup were all they thought about.

Ovechkin scoring 215 goals in his next 344 games has a 33-38 years old winning 2 others Rocket, who saw that coming ? The league scoring had just went up, without it it would have been just impossible.

The 5 season after the cup he scored at a 0.625 goals per games, that a 51+ goals by 82 paces, thats even higher than young Ovechkin pre-cup win career pace of 0.605 gpg.....

In 2014 at least that was the reaction:

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

forums.hfboards.com

Feel like the idea of him catching up Gretzky must be more recent than the 2018-2019 season, even more so the idea of any sacrifice the team would be making to help make it happen, that must started only when the Caps started to miss the playoff in the latest (2022-2023 ?).

Ha, what a fun trip down memory lane with that thread from 2014. Look who the only one who gave Ovechkin any chance of beating Gretzky's record was:

It's quite possible that Ovechkin might do it.

Truth be told I really didn't think he would.

 

[bobholly39]

Forget the goals record.

If he won another cup this year while winning a Conn Smythe how much would that boost his legacy?

A LOT. Like a tremendous amount. Especially this year. Age 39. After injury. Still going strong. After breaking record. After his team was supposed to be a bottom feeder and surprising all year to lead, etc.

Personally I still see Capitals as a paper champion. I can see them losing to my Habs in round 1 even. But if he does win a cup and smythe it would be a huge boost.

 

[bobholly39]

That's something that we will probably never know as yes the Capitals could win the SC but the probability of Ovi being the Conn Smythe winner would be really small unless something miraculous happens.

That's a really horrible take lol.

If Capitals win the cup this year - Ovechkin is the most likely smythe winner.

'Something miraculous'?

It's obviously possible someone else would win the smythe - but he's definitely the most likely winner if his team wins the cup.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I don't want to be the guy that says it like this, but are you watching these Caps games...? Ovechkin is tough to find out there more nights than not. Last playoffs, I believe one of the proprietary analytics outfits (Sportlogiq?) had him as the only player (only forward?) in the entire playoffs for any team that didn't have nor contribute to a scoring chance.

So, yeah..."something miraculous" is about right haha...but under that umbrella is also "scores 20 power play goals in a single playoff"...he keeps throwin'em in the net, so he's always got a chip and a chair...

 

[Midnight Judges]

Shooting from far away inherently allows more opportunities and time for shots to be blocked.

It also reduces the effort necessary from teammates to acquire an assist.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I don't want to be the guy that says it like this, but are you watching these Caps games...? Ovechkin is tough to find out there more nights than not.

Yikes.

Ovie turned the tide of this most recent game with a couple big hits.

But you don't notice the 240 pound guy who hits like a truck and is #2 in the entire NHL in goals per 60, and 6th in points per 60 at 5v5?

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Huh.

"Wow" is really the word for it.

 

[Midnight Judges]

So, yeah..."something miraculous" is about right haha...

Miraculous would be Ovechkin actually getting a fair shake in this Penguins fan dominated forum.

I don't believe in miracles.

Ovie started this season with 15 goals and 25 points in 18 games. Certainly that is a Conn-Smythe level of play in many years.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Yup, stats are cool. I see you have come to love point per game and other partial carvings, that's good haha - wonder why per 60 and per game things have suddenly become acceptable? Anyway...

Direct question: if you are watching Capitals games, what do you see? Shift to shift, is Ovechkin really the best Capital on the rink?

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don't want to be the guy that says it like this,

Yea you do

 

[sr edler]

When OV was out injured earlier this season his team (very predictably) didn't miss a single beat. If WSH goes far in the playoffs this spring it'll be because of good team play, not because of greybeard throwing an occasional projectile on the PP or scoping in a pair of ENGs 3 goals up with 5 seconds left on the clock.

They have a good youth group over there, and built some winning culture with back-to-back AHL championships.

 

[sr edler]

After his team was supposed to be a bottom feeder and surprising all year to lead, etc.

WSH turned it around this season precisely because they stopped catering to Ovechkin's goal record nonsense and built a good team structure instead based off of their youth and depth. Ovi himself then could tailgate behind a good team, win-win for both parties.

They didn't even let him score all the ENGs this season, with the Dolph Lundgren lookalike having 5 of his own, which put salt on my own pre-season prediction that he would have 10+ this year.

 

[Midnight Judges]

When OV was out injured earlier this season his team (very predictably) didn't miss a single beat. If WSH goes far in the playoffs this spring it'll be because of good team play, not because of greybeard throwing an occasional projectile on the PP or scoping in a pair of ENGs 3 goals up with 5 seconds left on the clock.

But again, just to highlight the nature of your misrepresentation, Ovechkin is 2nd in the NHL in goals per 60 at 5v5. He's 6th in points per 60 at 5v5. So where does this EN and PP pejorative stem from?

And tell me, precisely how many EN goals does Ovechkin have this season while his team is "3 goals up?"

The Capitals have a better record with Ovie than they do without (or at least they did when the games mattered - pre clinching). So your assertion that they "didn't miss a single beat" is incorrect.

Sidney Crosby leads this generation in empty net points, yet somehow in certain circles it's only ever Russian players who get that highlighted. Kucherov is rampantly called an "empty net merchant" by Canadians on YouTube despite Nathan MacKinnon having more empty net points. Same goes for Ovechkin and Crosby.

Huh. Funny how that works:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

WASH turned it around this season precisely because they stopped catering to Ovechkin's goal record nonsense

Oh yeah? Precisely when did that start happening? When his GPG and shots per game went....up?!?

Could it be that the the greatest goal scorer of all time - who came to a lottery team which then had the second highest points % in the entire NHL during his career - actually *GASP* helped the team win tons of games?

This is just as incoherent as in the Penguins forum where Ovechkin is so unbelievably great that he must be doping...except he simultaneously sucks.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If you take out Empty Net situations, Ovechkin stays at 2nd in G/60 and drops to 10th in P/60 at ES among those with 500+ Minutes this year.

This is one of the main reasons Evolving Hockey’s Even Strength or 5v5 data is usually preferred to some other sources these days. You’d be surprised how much of a difference it can cause. It’s a more direct measure of what tends to be discussed.