Do you think Ovechkin's legacy will improve over time?

[Plural]

Well there might have been a few people dismissing him all together but he made the vast majority of people's at least top3 ever even before the WC. I argued for him being the GOAT of all team sports here on hfboards even before he won the cup.

I'd say most included him as a contender for the Goat. But a there always was a portion of people saying he can't be unless he wins the Cup. Those people exist in all sport fans and even if we don't agree with them, it's not like their opinion is somehow invalid. It's an opinion on subjective listing.

 

[filinski77]

The problem with him is that since they won the NHL Cup (that`s pushing ten years) there is this perception that the only purpose of his career is to break that record. His entire, or even the team`s effort go in that direction. Everything else is a foot note at best.
His records doesn`t happen in a "natural way" at least that`s what it feel like. People don`t like that type of cheryy picking record chasing.
Nobody has ever felt that Gretzky kept on playing in the 90s to chase records, it was just a byproduct of his play.
That``s wey I don`t think that Ovechkin`s legacy will grow. Hos greatness is based on his sensational, outstanding play from 05-10- Not on his stat chasing in the last 10 years of his career. And people always remeber first what happened last.

But that perception is completely wrong. If a handful of misinformed (or biased haters) fans feel that way, it doesn't make it reality.

Ovechkin has been a great player since the cup. He's not out here compiling 30 goal seasons and finishing 90th in points year-in, year-out.

Age	Points Rank	Goals Rank
39​	11th	1st
38​	72nd	36th
37​	40th (32nd)	9th (9th/gp)
36​	16th	4th
35​	64th (27th /gp)	13th (8th/gp)
34​	18th	1st
33​	15th	1st

Ovechkin has accumulated still some of the best totals in the league over that span since the cup. He has not been record chasing anything.
Despite being aged 33 to 39 in this timeline, he's still 23rd in points and 4th in goals since 2018/2019. Only 1 goal behind 3rd, and 30 points behind 12th.

The Capitals only goal since the cup was not solely to only help him get the record.
Ovechkin has still been year-in, year-out the best (or one of the best) players on that team. The Caps have made the playoffs EVERY year except for one. The Caps have made a 1st round draft pick every year (except for 1) from 2018 to 2024, The Caps have made 8 2nd round draft picks in the last 7 years. And the Caps have a great prospect pool and set of young NHLers while also being a top team this year,

So I repeat - people can say that there is that perception, but the actual facts and stats will say the complete and utter opposite.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The problem with him is that since they won the NHL Cup (that`s pushing ten years) there is this perception that the only purpose of his career is to break that record. His entire, or even the team`s effort go in that direction. Everything else is a foot note at best.
His records doesn`t happen in a "natural way" at least that`s what it feel like. People don`t like that type of cheryy picking record chasing.
Nobody has ever felt that Gretzky kept on playing in the 90s to chase records, it was just a byproduct of his play.
That``s wey I don`t think that Ovechkin`s legacy will grow. Hos greatness is based on his sensational, outstanding play from 05-10- Not on his stat chasing in the last 10 years of his career. And people always remeber first what happened last.

They have the 3rd most wins in the NHL during his career despite them being a lottery team when he came on board. They're #4 in the NHL since the 2010-2011 season.

They've had the #1 powerplay in the NHL during his career. #3 in goals for.

They're currently swimming in young talent that they drafted or acquired.

What exactly is it you think the Capitals have sacrificed for Ovechkin's career success in his later years?

But that perception is completely wrong.

Where is this unsupported narrative coming from? Who is perpetuating it and how has it taken hold?

Truly, it's fascinating.

 

[MadLuke]

The problem with him is that since they won the NHL Cup (that`s pushing ten years) there is this perception that the only purpose of his career is to break that record.

Seem revisionist a bit, the year after they won the cup Ovechkin had "only" 607 goals and just turned 33... how many people had the idea of the goal record being in play back then ?

And the Capitals were the cup champ, had a 104 pts season, third in the east, we can bet a lot of money that winning a back to back cup were all they thought about.

Ovechkin scoring 215 goals in his next 344 games has a 33-38 years old winning 2 others Rocket, who saw that coming ? The league scoring had just went up, without it it would have been just impossible.

The 5 season after the cup he scored at a 0.625 goals per games, that a 51+ goals by 82 paces, thats even higher than young Ovechkin pre-cup win career pace of 0.605 gpg.....

In 2014 at least that was the reaction:

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

forums.hfboards.com

Feel like the idea of him catching up Gretzky must be more recent than the 2018-2019 season, even more so the idea of any sacrifice the team would be making to help make it happen, that must started only when the Caps started to miss the playoff in the latest (2022-2023 ?).

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don't think people came around on the idea that Ovechkin went from "theoretically could" break the record to "more likely than not will break the record" until he posted 50 goals in 2021-22, by end of season that got him to 780 goals, which is 214 short of Gretzky's total.

 

[seventieslord]

I don't think people came around on the idea that Ovechkin went from "theoretically could" break the record to "more likely than not will break the record" until he posted 50 goals in 2021-22, by end of season that got him to 780 goals, which is 214 short of Gretzky's total.

114

 

[WarriorofTime]

114

D'oh, my bad

 

[daver]

Points per game
Hull: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9
Ovechkin: 1, 1, 1, 5, 5, 8, 9, 9
Goals per game
Hull: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 6, 6
Ovechkin: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 6, 8, 9

Let's say their goalscoring is a wash. The argument for Hull over Ovechkin is primarily based on Hull's superior point finishes.

Eliminate the duplicates and their PPG finishes look like this:

Hull: 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 7
Ovechkin: 1, 8, 9

Agree with a lot - and then I would add the context of how it is statistically harder to have the dominance (points and goals) that Ovi has had in a larger and more nationalized league.

What statistical evidence do you have to make this statistical claim?

I argue that, on average, a Top 3 finish in the 06 era is similar to a Top 5 finish in the current era, a Top 5 finish in the 06 era is similar to a Top 10/15 finish in the current era. This is based on the average % gap between the #3/#5/#10 scorers and the Top 2 scorers.

My guess is that Hull was closer to the league's best scorers during his prime than Ovechkin was if you calculated this metric for their best 10 seasons.

 

[Caps8112]

The problem with him is that since they won the NHL Cup (that`s pushing ten years) there is this perception that the only purpose of his career is to break that record. His entire, or even the team`s effort go in that direction. Everything else is a foot note at best.
His records doesn`t happen in a "natural way" at least that`s what it feel like. People don`t like that type of cheryy picking record chasing.
Nobody has ever felt that Gretzky kept on playing in the 90s to chase records, it was just a byproduct of his play.
That``s wey I don`t think that Ovechkin`s legacy will grow. Hos greatness is based on his sensational, outstanding play from 05-10- Not on his stat chasing in the last 10 years of his career. And people always remeber first what happened last.

So what was Gretzky doing differently? Why is Gretzky playing from 1988 until 1999 without any team accomplishments different than Ovi playing from 2018 to the present without any team accomplishments, different or record chasing as you say? Ive said this in other threads when this "caps are all in on the record" idea comes up, what would you like them to do differently that would signify them doing whats best for the club? There was no world where the caps were letting the most important player in franchise history who led them to their only championship, walk when his contract was up, which was the same for Crosby (not the championship aprt), rightfully so. So what would the Caps doing whats best for the Caps have looked like the last 2 or 3 years? They had a couple bad years, mainly due to poor goaltending/coaching personnel decisions. They are competitive again now with promising young players in the lineup and on the way. IMO the "bad record chase" narrative is mainly for the haters and really just lazy all around. What were they supposed to do, say Ovi, your on the team but we arent going to utilize you and your mainly gonna sit on the bench and sell jerseys.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Let's say their goalscoring is a wash.

It isn't a wash.

Peak, prime, longevity - Ovechkin is a superior goal scorer to Bobby Hull in almost every context:

 

[Midnight Judges]

Bobby Hull played in a higher per-game scoring environment than Ovie did:

NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

His PPG through 1036 games was 1.11. Ovie's PPG through 1084 games (2019) was 1.12 and through 1,444 games is 1.09.

This idea that Hull was a significantly better point accumulator comes almost entirely from the fact that he played against a massively weaker talent pool:

Estimating the size of the NHL's talent pool (1950-2023)

There have been hundreds (and probably thousands) of posts on HOH that discuss the size of the NHL's talent pool. The data that's needed to determine the talent pool (youths actively involved in organized hockey) has never been maintained with any rigour or consistency, across countries and...

forums.hfboards.com

1.8M - 3M during Hull's NHL career.
6M - 9.5M during Ovie's career.

 

[MadLuke]

Ovechkin is a superior goal scorer to Bobby Hull

Not sure how fair it is to start Hull at late 18 vs Ovechkin at early 20 in some of those first x season comparison, specially in the being a young rookie in the 06 era vs 2006 context.

From 20 years old season to their 30 years old season, it was 7 to 6 Rockets, goal per games during that time looked like (500 games or more during Ovechkin 10 years, 450 for Hull, 70 games season), to note obviously that type of comp will be quite dependant on how your career align on the competition prime years or not and if scoring change when they started-ended to play exactly, Howe for example was old for a lot of this, Stamkos was not, would Hull faced young Howe-Richard instead would be different:

2006-2016 / ratio :
Ovechkin.: 0.63 / 1.0
Stamkos..: 0.55 / 0.87
Kovalchuk: 0.52 / 0.83
Crosby...: 0.48 / 0.76
Malkin...: 0.46 / 0.73

1959-1969:
Hull.....: 0.61 / 1.0
Howe.....: 0.45 / 0.74
Mahovlich: 0.45 / 0.74
Beliveau.: 0.44 / 0.72
Ullman/Geoffrion/Mikita: 0.41 / 0.67

During the playoff in that windows, Ovechkin was 9th in goals and 6th among those who played 25 games or more.
During the playoff in that windows, Hull was first in goals and first among those who played 25 games or more.

Calling their 20-30 hard to call either way seem fair, Hull could have an argument, but so could Ovechkin.

If we look what Ovechkin did relative to only other canadians in the nhl (Hull was not competing with Malkin-Gaborik-Kovalchuck) and do not stop after 30, their best seasons that appear in the top 100 of all time adjusted could look like this:

fullName	season	numGames	Tgames	TGoals	proRatedCanadianAvgTo82	AdjustedSeasonGoals	gpg	gpgAdjusted
Bobby Hull	19661967​	70​	66​	52​	29.8​	94.9​	0.79​	1.23​
Alex Ovechkin	20072008​	82​	82​	65​	31​	97.4​	0.79​	1.19​
Bobby Hull	19651966​	70​	65​	54​	34.3​	85.6​	0.83​	1.12​
Alex Ovechkin	20192020​	70​	68​	48​	30.4​	85.9​	0.71​	1.08​
Alex Ovechkin	20142015​	82​	81​	53​	28.7​	85.8​	0.65​	1.06​
Alex Ovechkin	20092010​	82​	72​	50​	30.7​	75.6​	0.69​	1.05​
Alex Ovechkin	20082009​	82​	79​	56​	32.4​	80.3​	0.71​	1.02​
Alex Ovechkin	20132014​	82​	78​	51​	30.5​	77.7​	0.65​	1​
Bobby Hull	19611962​	70​	70​	50​	33.6​	81​	0.71​	0.99​
Alex Ovechkin	20152016​	82​	79​	50​	30.1​	77.1​	0.63​	0.98​
Alex Ovechkin	20122013​	48​	48​	32​	32.3​	78.6​	0.67​	0.96​
Bobby Hull	19681969​	76​	74​	58​	39.1​	74.3​	0.78​	0.93​
Bobby Hull	19631964​	70​	70​	43​	31.2​	75​	0.61​	0.91​
Alex Ovechkin	20172018​	82​	82​	49​	31.1​	73.2​	0.6​	0.89​
Alex Ovechkin	20182019​	82​	81​	51​	33.3​	71.1​	0.63​	0.88​

Ovechkin name appear twice as much, obviously Hull leave the nhl still an elite goalscorer and was still one for 4 seasons... but in term of longevity of elite scoring in the nhl no doubt Ovechkin beat Hull, he beat everyone without having to think about it much, peak, absolute prime, too close to tell is maybe not a bad place to end up to, they both have a season that we could consider the most impressive of all time and a prime we both could consider the best of all time.

 

[MadLuke]

Bobby Hull played in a higher per-game scoring environment than Ovie did:

When he enter the league there was 1.,59-.6 assists per goals I think, not 1.65-1.7, there is a bit more to how many points goes around than how many goals get scored. And we tend to compare to their peers anyway, to take that into account.

I to really unsure I agree with the idea of Hull being a much better point accumulator, at all...

to go back to the 2006-2016 vs 1959-1969 comp, Ovechkin lead the league in points, third to Crosby-Malkin in ppg, Hull was second in point behind Howe playing in his 30s, leading in ppg but Mikita-Beliveau-Hower virtually tie with him, it is at best really close for Hull in that regard no ?

Top 10 is noisy.

 

[Crosby2010]

So what was Gretzky doing differently? Why is Gretzky playing from 1988 until 1999 without any team accomplishments different than Ovi playing from 2018 to the present without any team accomplishments, different or record chasing as you say? Ive said this in other threads when this "caps are all in on the record" idea comes up, what would you like them to do differently that would signify them doing whats best for the club? There was no world where the caps were letting the most important player in franchise history who led them to their only championship, walk when his contract was up, which was the same for Crosby (not the championship aprt), rightfully so. So what would the Caps doing whats best for the Caps have looked like the last 2 or 3 years? They had a couple bad years, mainly due to poor goaltending/coaching personnel decisions. They are competitive again now with promising young players in the lineup and on the way. IMO the "bad record chase" narrative is mainly for the haters and really just lazy all around. What were they supposed to do, say Ovi, your on the team but we arent going to utilize you and your mainly gonna sit on the bench and sell jerseys.

To be fair Gretzky took a team to the Cup final in that timeframe and he took the Rangers to the semis. He got out of the second round from 1993 to 1997 more times than Ovechkin has in his entire 20 year career. So even just the team accomplishments Gretzky was certainly doing them well.

 

[Lou Sassole]

The problem with him is that since they won the NHL Cup (that`s pushing ten years) there is this perception that the only purpose of his career is to break that record. His entire, or even the team`s effort go in that direction. Everything else is a foot note at best.
His records doesn`t happen in a "natural way" at least that`s what it feel like. People don`t like that type of cheryy picking record chasing.
Nobody has ever felt that Gretzky kept on playing in the 90s to chase records, it was just a byproduct of his play.
That``s wey I don`t think that Ovechkin`s legacy will grow. Hos greatness is based on his sensational, outstanding play from 05-10- Not on his stat chasing in the last 10 years of his career. And people always remeber first what happened last.

He won the Cup and the Conn Smythe 6 years ago, how is that "Stat Chasing"?

 

[Lou Sassole]

I don't think people came around on the idea that Ovechkin went from "theoretically could" break the record to "more likely than not will break the record" until he posted 50 goals in 2021-22, by end of season that got him to 780 goals, which is 214 short of Gretzky's total.

Yeah, I remember Buccigross mentioned it in an article back in 2010, but it was just a "what if". Nobody really considered it plausible. This old 2015 article is an interesting snapshot of someone revisiting his initial idea.

How Did Bucci Do? Revisiting John Buccigross’s Alex Ovechkin Goals Projection

In February of the 2009-10 season, John Buccigross of ESPN was spurred by a mailbag question to do a quick thought experiment: does he think Ovechkin could set the all-time goals mark? Gabe Desjard…

hockey-graphs.com