Here you go, fam, here is my thesis for y'all:
Disclaimer: I'm neither for nor against this as a solution to the Rangers and Staal. I'm just pointing things out.
Let's assume that we buy Staal out this off-season, and Gorton "replaces" him with a $2m AAV player. If Gorton is actually a good GM, he can sign a guy worth a market value of $2m AAV and get better play out of him than he'd get out of $5.7m AAV Staal.
What this now does to the cap implications is still "save" us cap next year and the year after, even with Girardi's buyout cap hit which for some reason matters here.
Yes, we do get penalized in years 3-6 here because of the buyout and replacing Staal with this $2m AAV player. Now, before you come at me on semantics "but 'fish, you say, this $2m AAV player isn't going to sign this off-season for a 6 year, $12m AAV deal". I know that shit. This is a generous aggregation of the 'replacement' of Staal. So calm down. Reality is that Staal is a third-pairing guy, so buying him out opens a hole at 3LD. We should NEVER pay more than $1m AAV for a guy to play on our third-pairing. Not f***ing ever. So here's a $2m AAV generous concept.
Now, years 2021-2024 sure look ugly, but keep in mind that the cap is not fixed. It's going up. Expansion is happening, which means more HRR, which means more cap. If the cap ceiling, for modesty, in 21-22 is $85m, that $4.46m of buyout cap + our replacement player is 5% of our total cap. And I mention again that this number should not inhibit any GM worth his weight in being a GM in fielding a competitive team. Which is important for the Rangers, as apparently HFNYR believes that is right around where we'll start being competitive again.
I suppose I should also mention that, well, who the f*** knows what the cap ceiling will be in 21-22? I don't. Who the f*** knows what this roster will look like then? I don't.
In conclusion: If the Rangers want to compete next year, buyout Staal. If the Rangers do not want to compete next year, wait. If the Rangers want to compete and are afraid of carrying too much 'dead cap' + replacement player cap, then continue waiting.
Thank you,
silverfish
Damn. Y'all fight with me all morning. Then I finally give you the content you ask for, and 30 minutes pass and no response?
I'm hurt.