Do the Leafs win a Cup if Bryan Berard doesn't get hurt?

[MS]

No, but Berard might be a Hofer.

No, but Berard might be a Hofer. Hell of a talent.

Definitely not. The guy was 23 and had back-to-back sub-0.5 PPG seasons before getting hurt.

He was a Marek Zidlicy or Tyson Barrie if he stayed healthy.

Dude Bryan Berard wasn't even that good.

No offense to the guy, it sucks he nearly lost his eye but he was a completely mediocre defenseman. He could rush but puck a bit, and ok with breakout passes but win a cup? Guy was not solid at all in his own end.


Lol. Leafs don't nearly have enough respect in the handshake line for that magic.

Basically this. He was a decent young offensive defender but nothing groundbreaking with pretty major defensive issues.

His injury is one of those things where it allows this 'what if?' to happen that he might have been a great player but that was pretty bloody unlikely.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Ehh maybe they get past New Jersey in 2001 but I don't know if they beat Colorado who was on a mission that season. I will say the Leafs defence with Berard and assuming the McCabe trade still happens would've been monstrous. Berard on that '02 team would've really helped with facilitating offence from the back-end, especially with Yushkevich injured and Quinn needing to ride Kaberle-McCabe into the ground due to a lack of depth. But again, even if they beat Carolina I think Detroit takes care of them in the Finals. I think the seeding for these years would be much different too but the '01 Avalanche and the '02 Red Wings were such monsters that I don't think it would've mattered.

'03 is an interesting thought experiment. Svehla was underratedly a strong defenseman and was good for the Leafs that season. Running a defence of Kaberle-Svehla, Berard-McCcabe, and Lumme-Wesley may have helped the Leafs offensively who couldn't solve Cechmanek and struggled against a strong Flyers team defensively. If they manage to get past them maybe they still have whatever magic and mental domination they had against Ottawa during this time and meet New Jersey in the Conference Finals. New Jersey though was just as if not more stingy than Philadelphia that year and they had a HOF goalie to boot. I'm not sure the Leafs even get by that '03 Ottawa team even with Berard but if they did I think New Jersey would have more in the tank and move on.

'04 would be the best chance for the Leafs if Berard stayed healthy and stuck around. McCabe-Leetch, Berard-Marchment, Kaberle-Klee would've been the most talented defence in terms of offence and puck movement, which would be crucial for a team who's forward group was old as all get out and lacked high-end skill. Leafs maybe win the division (missed out on it by 1 point) or Conference (missed by 3 points) which would give them an easier path. Avoid a 7 game series with Ottawa and a strong Flyers team. Tampa was a hell of a team though, if a bit young. Flyers lost to them that year because they were walking wounded, if the Leafs manage to stay healthy enough (which they very much didn't) perhaps they come out of the East. While Calgary had a fantastic run they were upstarts and not on the same level as those Championship Colorado and Detroit teams. I think if the Leafs were gonna win the Cup any year with a healthy Berard it'd be 2004.

So with Berard, I think the Leafs make at least one Finals and maybe win One Cup.

 

[seventieslord]

Calling him a Zidlicky or Barrie is probably selling him short style-wise. Because he was one of those rare defensemen who could cut through a team defense and cleanly get it into the zone. He had end-to-end ability. That's why I said "rich man's Jake Gardiner, poor man's P.K Subban". I picked those names specifically because they weren't just "guys who are better offensively than defensively, who can get points by QBing a powerplay", they were exceptional possession players who, at their best, really drove play in the right direction. Berard was one of those super smooth skating guys whose offensive value shone through at even strength way more than it did on the powerplay - like a Coffey, Howe, Niedermayer or Karlsson, though nowhere near as good as any of them.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Calling him a Zidlicky or Barrie is probably selling him short style-wise. Because he was one of those rare defensemen who could cut through a team defense and cleanly get it into the zone. He had end-to-end ability. That's why I said "rich man's Jake Gardiner, poor man's P.K Subban". I picked those names specifically because they weren't just "guys who are better offensively than defensively, who can get points by QBing a powerplay", they were exceptional possession players who, at their best, really drove play in the right direction. Berard was one of those super smooth skating guys whose offensive value shone through at even strength way more than it did on the powerplay - like a Coffey, Howe, Niedermayer or Karlsson, though nowhere near as good as any of them.

This is a good point. In fact, I was going to comment on your last post "congratulations on forgetting that Tyson Barrie himself played on the Leafs" but then remembered that he was not, in fact, a rich man's Jake Gardiner at that point in time, haha.

 

[JackSlater]

I will say that as a Red Wings fan at the time the thought of Toronto with a healthy Berard, or a player of equal value, likely would not have had me overly concerned. Or remotely concerned. There were four scary teams at that time, then teams like St. Louis that seemed theoretically tough, then on the next level you had teams like Toronto. Getting knocked out by a weak team on a hot streak or a team bunkering down completely was more of a fear.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

One of the biggest mistakes the Leafs made was trading away Danny Markov. He was a tank. He was a very good defensive defenseman - tough, but clean. He was probably the best penalty killer after Yushkevich. From what I recall (I don't think the stats are available anymore), he was a tremendous shot blocker too. The very next season, in Phoenix, he averaged close to 23 minutes per game on a 95 point team.

In exchange, the Leafs got Robert Reichel (a soft, inconsistent centre - who vanished in the playoffs and never really found a dedicated role on the team), Travis Green (a good penalty killer, but he could have been replaced), and Craig Mills (never played a game for Toronto).

Granted, I'm not sure if having Markov would have gotten the Leafs past Carolina in 2002 (and even if that happened, they would have been obliterated by Detroit). But Green and Reichel combined for zero points against Carolina.

A blueline with Yushkevich/Kaberle, McCabe/Markov, and Berg/Lumme looks a lot better. Hoglund/Sundin/Renberg would remain the top line, and Roberts/Tucker/Mogilny would have been a very good second line. Valk/McCauley/Domi was a solid fourth line (two PK'ers and a goon). The third line would be weakened without Green, but it could have been built around Corson. I think this version of the Leafs would have done better (that way, McCabe and his boneheaded players wouldn't have got 25 minutes a night, and Berg wouldn't have been forced into the #4 position).

(The biggest what if, when it comes to defensemen, is if the Leafs got Robert Svehla earlier, and/or if he stayed in 2004. He was only there for one year, but he probably had a better season than any other blueline during the Joseph/Belfour era. He was a beast. He matched Yushkevich in checking and defensive ability, but was a surprisingly good playmaker. Maybe if he was around, management wouldn't have turned the locked room into a geriatric convention in 2004).

 

[Johnny Engine]

One of the biggest mistakes the Leafs made was trading away Danny Markov. He was a tank. He was a very good defensive defenseman - tough, but clean. He was probably the best penalty killer after Yushkevich. From what I recall (I don't think the stats are available anymore), he was a tremendous shot blocker too. The very next season, in Phoenix, he averaged close to 23 minutes per game on a 95 point team.

In exchange, the Leafs got Robert Reichel (a soft, inconsistent centre - who vanished in the playoffs and never really found a dedicated role on the team), Travis Green (a good penalty killer, but he could have been replaced), and Craig Mills (never played a game for Toronto).

Granted, I'm not sure if having Markov would have gotten the Leafs past Carolina in 2002 (and even if that happened, they would have been obliterated by Detroit). But Green and Reichel combined for zero points against Carolina.

A blueline with Yushkevich/Kaberle, McCabe/Markov, and Berg/Lumme looks a lot better. Hoglund/Sundin/Renberg would remain the top line, and Roberts/Tucker/Mogilny would have been a very good second line. Valk/McCauley/Domi was a solid fourth line (two PK'ers and a goon). The third line would be weakened without Green, but it could have been built around Corson. I think this version of the Leafs would have done better (that way, McCabe and his boneheaded players wouldn't have got 25 minutes a night, and Berg wouldn't have been forced into the #4 position).

(The biggest what if, when it comes to defensemen, is if the Leafs got Robert Svehla earlier, and/or if he stayed in 2004. He was only there for one year, but he probably had a better season than any other blueline during the Joseph/Belfour era. He was a beast. He matched Yushkevich in checking and defensive ability, but was a surprisingly good playmaker. Maybe if he was around, management wouldn't have turned the locked room into a geriatric convention in 2004).

My unreliable impression was that Markov got himself into some sort of trouble in Toronto and needed to be in a different city for his own benefit, but that's the stuff of vague rumours for what I know. Maybe others here know more.

The interesting thing to me about the roster turnover in summer 2001 is that most of the roles were directly replaced with pretty similar players, though not directly for the players any given guy was traded for.
Soft offensive middle six centre: Yanic Perreault out, Reichel in (downgrade)
Complimentary top six winger: Steve Thomas out, Renberg in (upgrade at the time, if a little sad)
Defensively oriented middle six centre: Igor Korolev out, Green in (not that different)
Dynamic top six winger: Sergei Berezin out, Mogilny in (laughably large upgrade)
But as you mentioned, they didn't exactly replace their physical #4, although Berg had been a deadline acquisition just before that.

There's also Karel Pilar, who looked really, really good in the second half of the season and playoffs before breaking his hand, and then had his career knocked entirely off the rails by a heart condition. A group of six with both him and Yushkevich in it is another what-if for that team, if not quite as enticing as the one you put down with Markov.

I did a rewatch of that playoff run recently (with note-taking), and my own theory on the Carolina series is that they couldn't put together a line that was any threat to carry and shoot the puck. The Roberts line ate New York and Ottawa alive with their forechecking, but the Canes let them carry over the line and figure out what to do from there, the answer for which seemed to be "Jonas Hoglund leads the team in shots on goal" which should never be your A-option. Sundin and Mogilny were more equipped to solve that issue, but Sundin was fresh off the DL, and Mogilny had no chemistry whatsoever with Reichel, who might have turned in the most useless playoff performance I've ever seen.

 

[sr edler]

In exchange, the Leafs got Robert Reichel (a soft, inconsistent centre - who vanished in the playoffs and never really found a dedicated role on the team), Travis Green (a good penalty killer, but he could have been replaced), and Craig Mills (never played a game for Toronto).

Weren't Reichel and Green both semi-washed up (or even wholly washed up) as well? No way Daniil Markov brings back that package in prime condition.

 

[DitchMarner]

Weren't Reichel and Green both semi-washed up (or even wholly washed up) as well? No way Daniil Markov brings back that package in prime condition.

Reichel had a solid first season in terms of point production (51 points, I think) but was a disappointing producer for a player of his skill level afterward.

He also really sucked in the playoffs and was soft. Basically, he was exactly the type of skilled top six player Maple Leafs fans don't like having and constantly complain about. Not sure why anyone thought he would be a good fit on the Corson/Tucker/Domi era Leafs to begin with. I wouldn't have minded having the Calgary or NYI version.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Weren't Reichel and Green both semi-washed up (or even wholly washed up) as well? No way Daniil Markov brings back that package in prime condition.

Like DM said there, Reichel produced, and it seems like most of his points went through Gary Roberts in his first season. I don't have much memory of how he looked (other than boring, forgettable), but in the playoffs he was shying away from every single one-on-one battle he could, and wasn't even making the extra move at the blue line when he had the puck - think "oh, looks like there's a defenseman here, guess all I can do is take a 50-foot wrister and hope it's 1982". They tried him on Mogilny's line, then Robert's line, then infamously accidentally scratched him giving McCauley his shot. He was weirdly effective as a time-killing third liner with Domi for most of the rest of the playoffs but every time they tried him somewhere else - Mogilny, Sundin when he came back, ice cold. I guess he declined as a regular season player from there, but again, very few memories.

Travis Green is a guy who I see was a 70-point player at one juncture and can't really figure out why from what I know of him. Most of the time when you get these washed up scorers you'll see a crisp pass on power play #2, a crafty move to lose some third pair defenseman in traffic, but with Green it was just a guy going about his business, winning lots of faceoffs and scoring third-line goals about as much as a third line player does. Among Toronto's basket of surly grinders he was the George Harrison of the group, and I don't think too many people would mention him if they weren't saying "I sure miss having Tucker, etc, etc, and Travis Green on the team". He did complement the Mogilny line in the 2002 playoffs more than Reichel did, but there's no way he'd have been in that position if Sundin was there. Like Reichel his next season was less of the same, and then he got waived in the summer, perhaps to solve some dressing room issues that Green may have been a minor player in.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

One of the biggest mistakes the Leafs made was trading away Danny Markov. He was a tank. He was a very good defensive defenseman - tough, but clean. He was probably the best penalty killer after Yushkevich. From what I recall (I don't think the stats are available anymore), he was a tremendous shot blocker too. The very next season, in Phoenix, he averaged close to 23 minutes per game on a 95 point team.

If we're talking roster mistakes from this era we can't ignore Quinn losing 2/3 pieces from the Gilmour trade. Waiving Steve Sullivan to make room for Dmitri Khristich was an all-timer bad decision. Could've used his scoring and skill, especially in '02. Jason Smith for draft picks also ended up being a poor move, Smith would've fit well as a physical shutdown defenseman on a team that was filled with tough customers and character guys.

 

[seventieslord]

If we're talking roster mistakes from this era we can't ignore Quinn losing 2/3 of the Gilmour trade. Waiving Steve Sullivan to make room for Dmitri Khristich was an all-timer bad decision. Could've used his scoring and skill, especially in '02. Jason Smith for draft picks also ended up being a poor move, Smith would've fit well as a physical shutdown defenseman on a team that was filled with tough customers and character guys.

It was even worse when they traded him (99 deadline). What playoff-bound, soft team trades a player like Jason Smith at the deadline and doesn't get a player back?

 

[Crosby2010]

Berard was not a guy that was going to catapult them to the Cup. He didn't in 1999, and he wasn't exactly having a banner season in 2000 when he got the injury either. Mad Mike Milbury of all people actually made a good trade in 1999 getting Potvin in return by trading away Berard. Personally it was probably too premature to see if this young defenseman was going to develop but maybe he saw that he already peaked. Berard had that great rookie year, and still had a pretty good year in 1998. But I can remember even in 1999 I didn't think the Leafs were getting a future Norris d-man. That's what you would assume 4 years after being 1st overall. But even by that time I feel the league was figuring him out. Sort of reminds me of Daigle in the way that he was well known to be washed up by the time he was 22-23 years old. You just knew. I never got this feeling with Lafreniere, but I did with those two.

 

[MXD]

They weren't a Torey Krug away from the Cup.