Value of: Dmitry Orlov UFA

[AhosDatsyukian]

Was the #1 D for the Cup winning Caps back in 2018 and for a few years after, since then had a brief highly productive pit stop in Boston before shockingly signing a 2 year deal high AAV with the Canes, where he has been a solid 2nd pair guy (technically 3rd pair last year but really the Canes' depth was so insane they basically had 2 2nd pairings). Has been widely assumed the Canes signed him as a bridge to Nikishin and won't bring him back. UFA this summer, turning 34 in July.

What teams would be interested and what contract do you see him getting?

 

[BHawk21]

Chicago. High money low Term. Playing with Levshunov.

 

[Drake1588]

Was the #1 D for the Cup winning Caps back in 2018 and for a few years after...

What teams would be interested and what contract do you see him getting?

That is inaccurate. The Caps' No. 1 defenseman in 2018 was John Carlson. Their No. 2 was Matt Niskanen. Orlov was their No. 3 (and an excellent #3 at that, but a #3).

Carlson remained the Caps' top defenseman until early this year, when Jakob Chychrun probably assumed most of that mantle (certainly offensively; Carlson still assumes a lot of the all-rounder duties of a No. 1).

Orlov's is an interesting case, in many ways similar to the reception he found in free agency two years ago. He's a well regarded and low-maintenance D but his age gave teams pause when he went looking for term. He settled for good AAV, but light on term from Carolina. He's two years older and I suspect he's looking at something similar: Seeking term and high AAV, he probably finds a landing spot with whatever team elects to pay him well but is able to mitigate its risk by making the deal short. What might have changed is he might be going into free agency this time with more realistic expectations.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

That is inaccurate. The Caps' No. 1 defenseman in 2018 was John Carlson. Their No. 2 was Matt Niskanen. Orlov was their No. 3 (and an excellent #3 at that, but a #3).

Carlson remained the Caps' top defenseman until early this year, when Jakob Chychrun probably assumed most of that mantle (certainly offensively; Carlson still assumes a lot of the all-rounder duties of a No. 1).

Orlov's is an interesting case, in many ways similar to the reception he found in free agency two years ago. He's a well regarded and low-maintenance D but his age gave teams pause when he went looking for term. He settled for good AAV, but light on term from Carolina. He's two years older and I suspect he's looking at something similar: Seeking term and high AAV, he probably finds a landing spot with whatever team elects to pay him well but is able to mitigate its risk by making the deal short. What might have changed is he might be going into free agency this time with more realistic expectations.

Yzerman...no...

 

[Silky mitts]

Similar deal as last time maybe, 2x$7.75M
Orlov Niskanen was the Caps’ top pair 5 on 5 when they won

 

[TheNewEra]

San Jose/Chicago/Pittsburgh/Philly should really offer him a lot of money with low term because they all desperately need help

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

That is inaccurate. The Caps' No. 1 defenseman in 2018 was John Carlson. Their No. 2 was Matt Niskanen. Orlov was their No. 3 (and an excellent #3 at that, but a #3).

Carlson remained the Caps' top defenseman until early this year, when Jakob Chychrun probably assumed most of that mantle (certainly offensively; Carlson still assumes a lot of the all-rounder duties of a No. 1).

Orlov's is an interesting case, in many ways similar to the reception he found in free agency two years ago. He's a well regarded and low-maintenance D but his age gave teams pause when he went looking for term. He settled for good AAV, but light on term from Carolina. He's two years older and I suspect he's looking at something similar: Seeking term and high AAV, he probably finds a landing spot with whatever team elects to pay him well but is able to mitigate its risk by making the deal short. What might have changed is he might be going into free agency this time with more realistic expectations.

Orlov led the Caps in EV TOI that season. Carlson may have an argument for being their most important D due to his powerplay ability but Orlov/Niskanen was their top pair and Orlov was the better player on that pair.

 

[Drake1588]

Orlov led the Caps in EV TOI that season. Carlson may have an argument for being their most important D due to his powerplay ability but Orlov/Niskanen was their top pair and Orlov was the better player on that pair.

Francois Beauchemin was the Ducks' ice time leader deep into the 2007 playoffs, owing to his deployment and coaching decisions about matching and special teams. He was their No. 3 defenseman too, trailing behind Pronger and Niedermayer.

Every single solitary person associated with the Ducks or the Caps would defend the roles that those No. 3 defensemen played on their clubs in winning their titles, but would object to the characterization of either as a No. 1 based purely on TOI -- or even more strained, EV TOI, dismissing special teams ice time entirely. A stopwatch sometimes doesn't tell the whole story.

 

[biturbo19]

I'd expect him to go for a high dollar, long-term deal. Wherever that may take him really.

The high dollar short-term 2-year deal with the Canes was designed pretty much precisely to carry him to UFA just as the cap was projected to skyrocket. Same as Gavrikov more or less. Both of them reportedly had longer offers on the table at significant money...but every indication was that their agents urged them to gamble on themselves and the cap increase to hit UFA again quickly, in the "brave new cap world" coming this summer.


With Orlov especially, he's already got a ring. I'm not sure he'll take any kind of discount to go chasing another one. More likely just cash out and set himself up even more lavishly for life...and if that happens to be with a competitive team, all the better probably.

 

[BKarchitect]

I’m a big proponent of looking at season splits, especially when it comes to young or old players. Trajectory matters.

Pre January 1:
37 GP, 17 PTS, +16

Post January 1:
34 GP, 9 PTS, -2

Carolina as a team, pre January 1:
0.622 winning%, GA/GP: 2.81

Carolina as a team, post January 1:
0.625 winning%, GA/GP: 2.60

…so, in the second half of the season, the wheels have fallen of Orlov’s production and yet Carolina has been a slightly better team and much better defensively while Orlov continues to be mistake prone.

If he were 29, you could chalk it up to a bad few months or maybe Chatfield in worse form too or the Canes just focusing on a more defensive structure.

For a guy who is going to be 34 in July, this is pretty much a giant red flag that the decline is in full swing and you aren’t going to get what the overall stat line from this year says, at any point in his next deal. At best I think you pay him as a #4 this next year and any year beyond that, your probably should expect a bottom pair contributor.

Now what that nets in a wild summer could be interesting.

 

[trick9]

Orlov led the Caps in EV TOI that season. Carlson may have an argument for being their most important D due to his powerplay ability but Orlov/Niskanen was their top pair and Orlov was the better player on that pair.

You can't find a single person in Washington that calls Orlov their #1 D during the 2018 run.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

I’m a big proponent of looking at season splits, especially when it comes to young or old players. Trajectory matters.

Pre January 1:
37 GP, 17 PTS, +16

Post January 1:
34 GP, 9 PTS, -2

Carolina as a team, pre January 1:
0.622 winning%, GA/GP: 2.81

Carolina as a team, post January 1:
0.625 winning%, GA/GP: 2.60

…so, in the second half of the season, the wheels have fallen of Orlov’s production and yet Carolina has been a slightly better team and much better defensively while Orlov continues to be mistake prone.

If he were 29, you could chalk it up to a bad few months or maybe Chatfield in worse form too or the Canes just focusing on a more defensive structure.

For a guy who is going to be 34 in July, this is pretty much a giant red flag that the decline is in full swing and you aren’t going to get what the overall stat line from this year says, at any point in his next deal. At best I think you pay him as a #4 this next year and any year beyond that, your probably should expect a bottom pair contributor.

Now what that nets in a wild summer could be interesting.

I'd say your analysis decently matches the eye test. Orlov has great skill. He moves the puck well, sometimes convincing you that he's a #1 D for a shift or a game. He has a good shot. He likes to be pretty mobile back there, and it seemed like a match made in heaven for the Canes, where defensemen go to have career highs based on our system. We utilize defensemen a LOT on the cycle.

At the same time, damned near every game he has two turnovers that lead to odd man rushes. What's baffling to me is this is most often a case of directly coughing up the puck, sometimes not even under pressure, and falling down on the ice.

As a point of comparison, Brent Burns makes more mistakes than Orlov does at this point in their careers. With Burns, his mistakes are usually he just misses his man due to lack of footspeed, being a little out of position, or not getting his stick in just in time. With Orlov, almost every game I have a "what team does he play for" moment.

Still a good player, but the gaffes are disconcerting. And a lot of his mistakes are already covered up before they amount to much due to the excellent skating of his partner, Jalen Chatfield.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Orlov underlying stats have been good this year, but I think his foot speed is definitely shot. If a player gains a step on him he will probably get scored on. I don't think he has been as bad as Canes fans are saying, but his mistakes are pretty bad.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Orlov underlying stats have been good this year, but I think his foot speed is definitely shot. If a player gains a step on him he will probably get scored on. I don't think he has been as bad as Canes fans are saying, but his mistakes are pretty bad.

But then there are also times when he plays with his chest out and skates well with the puck in the neutral and offesnive zone making things happen. He's a very curious player but absolutely not consistent. Totally fine for your 2nd pair but hard to rely on him. He is built like a friggin tank as well. I think the Canes timed it perfectly with the 2 year deal. I'm sure he'll get some decent offers in the off-season since the D market is very weak.

 

[BKarchitect]

I'd say your analysis decently matches the eye test. Orlov has great skill. He moves the puck well, sometimes convincing you that he's a #1 D for a shift or a game. He has a good shot. He likes to be pretty mobile back there, and it seemed like a match made in heaven for the Canes, where defensemen go to have career highs based on our system. We utilize defensemen a LOT on the cycle.

At the same time, damned near every game he has two turnovers that lead to odd man rushes. What's baffling to me is this is most often a case of directly coughing up the puck, sometimes not even under pressure, and falling down on the ice.

As a point of comparison, Brent Burns makes more mistakes than Orlov does at this point in their careers. With Burns, his mistakes are usually he just misses his man due to lack of footspeed, being a little out of position, or not getting his stick in just in time. With Orlov, almost every game I have a "what team does he play for" moment.

Still a good player, but the gaffes are disconcerting. And a lot of his mistakes are already covered up before they amount to much due to the excellent skating of his partner, Jalen Chatfield.

Of topic a bit but how do folks see the pairs shaking out with Burns and Orlov out the door and Nikishin and Morrow in? I assume ideally Ghost and Walker remain the third pair so does Morrow go to Slavin's right as the Burns replacement and then Chatfield gets a younger Russian partner?

Pretty slick succession plan, great timing on the deals - if a little rough at times this year with decline from the two vets.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Of topic a bit but how do folks see the pairs shaking out with Burns and Orlov out the door and Nikishin and Morrow in? I assume ideally Ghost and Walker remain the third pair so does Morrow go to Slavin's right as the Burns replacement and then Chatfield gets a younger Russian partner?

Pretty slick succession plan, great timing on the deals - if a little rough at times this year with decline from the two vets.

It is a good transition. I think Morrow needs to work on his defensive game, but he won't be too different from Burns offensively (probably way better). I could see Morrow hitting 50+ points next season. He hasn't even been playing power play minutes (Burns has been the worst defenseman in history ever on the powerplay btw).

 

[Discipline Daddy]

It is a good transition. I think Morrow needs to work on his defensive game, but he won't be too different from Burns offensively (probably way better). I could see Morrow hitting 50+ points next season. He hasn't even been playing power play minutes (Burns has been the worst defenseman in history ever on the powerplay btw).

Good question. The likeliest scenario is we slot in Nikishin and Morrow for Burns and Orlov as they walk. We may try Morrow next to Slavin, but that would once again force Slavin to 100% babysit his partner. The better strategy might be to pair Walker with Slavin, and then something like

Slavin - Walker
Nikishin - Chatfield
Ghostisbehere - Morrow

Problem is, you either then are pairing Morrow with Ghost (gonna get a shit ton of goals against) or you're pairing two rookies: Nikishin and Morrow.

We have the capspace to sign an expensive D, so I could foresee GM Tulsky shooting big and landing someone else's contracted, expensive D with Morrow as part of the return.

 

[stempniaksen]

Chicago. High money low Term. Playing with Levshunov.

If he's bag chasing this absolutely makes the both sense for both sides. I know the Hawks have a stable of good young defenceman but getting a veteran who can actually play (I'm looking at you Brodie and Murphy) would be good insulation for those guys.

 

[BHawk21]

If he's bag chasing this absolutely makes the both sense for both sides. I know the Hawks have a stable of good young defenceman but getting a veteran who can actually play (I'm looking at you Brodie and Murphy) would be good insulation for those guys.

Vlasic-Rinzel
Orlov-Levshunov
Allan/Kaiser/Del Mastro-Murphy/Crevier

Korchinski #1 in rockford.

 

[OG]

Not sure how some Canes fans give zero consideration to him re-signing in Carolina for 1-2 years at a significant discount to remain on a good team and mentor Nikishin.

 

[43sfriends]

Come home to WSH Dima

 

[WTFMAN99]

Chicago. High money low Term. Playing with Levshunov.

I was going to say if the Leafs moved off Rielly in the off-season, I wouldn't mind a 1-2 year deal with Orlov or even Provorov but Orlov would be a great add for the reasons you stated.

 

[Chrispy]

Not sure how some Canes fans give zero consideration to him re-signing in Carolina for 1-2 years at a significant discount to remain on a good team and mentor Nikishin.

Carolina would need probably need to move Gostisbehere out to make that work. Nikishin will be in Raleigh and Morrow has looked good in a couple of trials this year. But in that scenario, your PP QBs are likely rookies (Morrow, Nikishin.) So I think they hang onto Ghost for the PP.

Even if Morrow isn't planned for next season, there's still more of a need for a RD than to re-sign Orlov and play someone on their off side.

 

[qcal1427]

He's going back to Russia IMO

 

[SherVaughn30]

Gonna go out on a limb and say the Kings let Gavrikov walk and sign Orlov to a 2 year deal.