As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, VsX isn't a great way to measure the offensive abilities/results of the pre-consolidation period. The two biggest issues I've noted are 1) talent was spread out over multiple leagues for most of the time, and 2) in lower scoring scenarios, differences of just a couple points could (and did) either boost a player's score super high, or wreck it far more than it "should" (for lack of a better word".
The first problem is going to be hard to solve. I think it's ultimately going to be assigning various weights to the different leagues and applying those weights to the scores achieved within seasons, but I'm not where near ready to work on that. However, I've been working on a variation of VsX that I think helps ameliorate the second issue a bit, and I'd like to get your thoughts on it.
First, I know some people think that pre-consolidation should be measure on a Vs1 basis; that seems crazy to me, as it means that no player from the first 40ish years of hockey can't get a score over 100 for any given season, and that seems crazy to me. Do we really feel good saying that Jamie Benn had a better offensive season than Russell Bowie ever did? I hope not.
Second, a couple examples demonstrating the impact of lower scoring seasons on VsX/Vs2/etc-
In 1891, George 'Bunny' Lowe led the AHAC in points with 5.5 (according to the stats I have collected as of this moment). Second place was Alex Kingan with 3.5, Archie McNaughton was third with 3. That small difference in points resulted in Lowe receiving a Vs2 of 157.14- that's ridiculous, a two point difference shouldn't have that level of impact.
In 1903 Russell Bowie led the CAHL in points with 27.33. Frank McGee was second with 24.33, which means 24.33 would be the benchmark for Vs2. Accordingly, Herb Jordan's third place finish (17 points) would be worth just 69.87 points- again, that feels far too low for the 3rd highest scorer in what was almost certainly the best league in the world.
The 1907 ECAHA is similar- Bowie and Ernie Russell finish well ahead of the pack. Alf Smith's 3rd place finish ends up being worth just 76.89, and Harry Smith's 4th place is worth just 61.36.
I could go on, but I hope this gets the general idea across.
What I decided to try was to use averages, and to have sort of a floating benchmark for the first 3 finishers. Why top 3? In small leagues with talent spread out over multiple leagues, I don't really think anything lower than 3rd is worth going through extra effort for. Top tier offensive talent should be placing at or near third consistently in this environment.
For first, the benchmark became the average of the 1st and 2nd place finishes. That keeps first place finishes above 100, but keeps the number to a more realistic level.
The benchmark for second place remained the same- 2nd.
The benchmark for third place (and below) became the average of the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. This keeps 2 ahead of 3, but pulls up the rear a little bit to account for the issue previously discussed.
Finally, I ran this for all the seasons and have 1-year through 7-year spreads. Here is what the top 10 for each of those look like:
1-Year
Name | Score |
Russell Bowie | 133.04 |
Archie McNaughton | 126.83 |
George Lowe | 122.22 |
Bob MacDougall | 121.28 |
Reginald Bradley | 118.92 |
James Virtue | 115.00 |
Haviland Routh | 113.29 |
Dolly Swift | 112.00 |
Marty Walsh | 111.56 |
Harry Trihey | 109.86 |
In case anyone was curious, from 1887-1909 there were 13 players who led the AHAC/CAHL/ECAHA in points, and another 19 who finished (or tied for) second.
2-Year
Name | Score |
Archie McNaughton | 124.25 |
Russell Bowie | 123.13 |
Bob MacDougall | 114.30 |
Haviland Routh | 110.75 |
Reginal Bradley | 108.55 |
Harry Trihey | 108.48 |
George Lowe | 105.56 |
Dolly Swift | 105.02 |
Marty Walsh | 101.51 |
Herb Jordan | 100.00 |
Archie Hodgson | 100.00 |
Jack Campbell | 100.00 |
3-Year
Name | Score |
Russell Bowie | 119.16 |
Archie McNaughton | 124.25 |
Bob MacDougall | 110.71 |
Haviland Routh | 107.16 |
Harry Trihey | 100.27 |
Dolly Swift | 99.54 |
Art Farrell | 98.03 |
Herb Jordan | 97.97 |
Archie Hodgson | 96.09 |
George Lowe | 94.07 |
4-Year
Name | Score |
Russell Bowie | 116.09 |
Bob MacDougall | 108.03 |
Herb Jordan | 95.96 |
Dolly Swift | 95.57 |
Archie Hodgson | 90.01 |
Archie McNaughton | 88.90 |
George Lowe | 86.86 |
Alf Smith | 85.08 |
Harry Trihey | 82.38 |
Haviland Routh | 81.94 |
5-Year
Name | Score |
Russell Bowie | 114.03 |
Bob MacDougall | 97.39 |
Herb Jordan | 93.03 |
Dolly Swift | 92.69 |
Alf Smith | 83.43 |
Archie Hodgson | 82.20 |
George Lowe | 81.85 |
Blair Russell | 79.38 |
Shirley Davidson | 73.74 |
Archie McNaughton | 73.73 |
6-Year
Name | Score |
Russell Bowie | 112.66 |
Herb Jordan | 88.63 |
Bob MacDougall | 87.04 |
Dolly Swift | 85.58 |
Alf Smith | 76.95 |
Blair Russell | 76.35 |
Archie Hodgson | 73.05 |
George Lowe | 72.97 |
Chauncey Kirby | 68.28 |
Rat Westwick | 67.28 |
7-Year
Name | Score |
Russell Bowie | 110.85 |
Herb Jordan | 80.86 |
Dolly Swift | 77.46 |
Bob MacDougall | 74.61 |
Blair Russell | 72.72 |
Alf Smith | 71.33 |
Rat Westwick | 65.15 |
Archie Hodgson | 64.73 |
Chauncey Kirby | 62.92 |
George Lowe | 62.55 |
A couple quick comments:
0) I should have noted this earlier, but I have 1310 player-seasons (not individual players, but total seasons by all players), so my data set includes any player who had one of the top 131 seasons. This ended up being 62 players. For those 62 players, I included all the information they had for the specified timespan and leagues.
1) First, obviously, this only tracks what a player did in the AHAC/CAHL/ECAHA. Players who spent considerable time in other leagues and/or outside the 1887-1909 time-frame are going to look worse here. Look at Marty Walsh, Tommy Phillips, or Frank McGee, for example. Those guys were clearly top 10 offensive forces, but that doesn't show here due to the cutoffs.
2) Russell Bowie... yet another metric where he just looks truly spectacular. The fact that his 7 year score is still at 100 while the next highest player is at just 80 really shows how good of a point producer he was for so long.
3) I don't know if we can really group all the players into this time period into a single VsYear metric fairly, but if I was going to try, I'd pick the 5-Year number.
4) Herb Jordan looks good. A little bit of "always the bridesmaid, never the bride" with him, but I think this really starts to capture his impact once we start looking at 4+ years.
5) Dolly Swift's longevity never fails to amaze me. He debuted 6 years before this time-period, and then also missed some prime years due to Quebec HC not playing in all the early AHAC seasons. And he missed half of 1887.
I also became curious as to what this looks like if we just look at finishes as a rank, and then averaged out a players 1-Year through 7-Year finishes. I've also included the year the player debuted in the AHAC/CAHL/ECAHA. I'd like to stress that this is when they debuted in these leagues, not when they made their Senior debuts, and it doesn't track that several players (Phillips, McGee, etc) didn't always play in this set of leagues, regardless of when they debuted.
I'll pop this table out to 20, because I want to be sure to include Alf Smith and Rat Westwick, because they are an interesting case study I want to mention in a bit:
Rank | Name | Debut | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 4Y | 5Y | 6Y | 7Y | Average |
1 | Russell Bowie | 1899 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.14 |
2 | Bob MacDougall | 1894 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3.00 |
3 | Dolly Swift | 1887 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5.29 |
4 | Herb Jordan | 1903 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6.00 |
5 | Archie McNaughton | 1888 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 7.00 |
6 | George Lowe | 1887 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7.43 |
7 | Archie Hodgson | 1887 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8.43 |
8 | Harry Trihey | 1897 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 10.86 |
9 | Haviland Routh | 1891 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 11.29 |
10 | Alf Smith | 1895 | 34 | 21 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13.00 |
11 | Shirley Davidson | 1893 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13.86 |
12 | Art Farrell | 1897 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 15.00 |
13 | Joe Power | 1903 | 38 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 15.14 |
13 | Blair Russell | 1900 | 14 | 23 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 15.14 |
15 | Graham Drinkwater | 1893 | 14 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16.43 |
16 | Billy Barlow | 1891 | 14 | 27 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 17.00 |
16 | Rat Westwick | 1895 | 14 | 30 | 25 | 20 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 17.00 |
18 | Bert Russell | 1889 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17.57 |
19 | Chauncey Kirby | 1890 | 36 | 25 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 18.00 |
20 | Jack Campbell | 1887 | 14 | 10 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 20.29 |
20 | Cam Davidson | 1894 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 20.29 |
I think this table really captures the effects of career-length on scoring/Vs whatever scoring finishes. Look at guys like Rat Westwick and Alf Smith. They debuted in 1895, but never really stood out until well into their careers. Rat Westwick especially was a rather poor point producer (comparing to historical greats), who played long enough to just outlast other players.
Plus, it should be noted that neither Alf Smith nor Rat Westwick achieved their highest-value offensive seasons early on- Westwick's highest score came in 1902, Alf Smith in I believe 1906.
As always, I welcome any thoughts, comments, or ideas. Or if any of this data looks suspect, I'll be glad to check if I made any errors.