GDT: DIG IN! RIGHT NOW! Mantra of the 24-25 Season starts today! Oilers v Jets, 8 PM

Spawn

Something in the water
Feb 20, 2006
44,360
16,824
Edmonton
I've mentioned this before on here, but this is the reality of the Oilers bottom 6 if we consider the current top 6 set in stone.

Evander Kane when he last played a full season+playoffs healthy scored 37G and 56P in 58GP (52G, 79P/82GP pace). He followed that up with a season+playoffs of 19G 33P in 53GP (29G, 51P/82GP pace) after going through a serious tendon laceration. He then followed that up with a mostly injured season+playoffs still producing 28G and 52P in 97GP (24G 44P/82GP pace). A healthy Evander Kane is a 25 goal scorer playing on your 3rd line.

Adam Henrique just came off a 10G 16P in 39 games stretch in Edmonton on a new team playing mostly 3rd line. He's scored at a 40-50P pace in every season since his rookie year.

Connor Brown, while coming off a tough year after ACL surgery and joining a new team has a track record of being a 30-40P player who consistently scores 10-20 goals per year. There is reason to believe this player will reemerge given that in his last 36 games (season and playoffs) after scoring his first goal of the season he was able to put together 6 goals and 13 points (14G, 30P pace/82GP).

Janmark is another player that people are writing off despite a lot of data that shows last year as an anomaly for him offensively. His previous two seasons (one in Vegas, and one in Edmonton) were almost identical offensive production. 11G 31P/ 82GP pace and 12G 31P/82GP pace.

This bottom 6 has a lot more potential than they are given credit for.

All of this is fair. But you’re discounting an important factor in age.

All four of those guys are at (or past) the point where forwards typically start to see pretty big dips in production. Obviously there are plenty of forwards who can maintain good production into their 30s, but your average player doesn’t.
 

CrazyJoeDavola

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
3,904
3,934
Vancouver
Turned the game off right before g7 ended. Too painful to watch the post-game stuff, documentary stuff, nothing.

Time to erase the past and pave the way to home ice in the playoffs. We will prevail. It's our year.

༼つ ◕_◕ ༽つ OILERS TAKE MY ENERGY ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
 
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McFlyingV

Registered User
Feb 22, 2013
23,762
15,712
Edmonton, Alberta
All of this is fair. But you’re discounting an important factor in age.

All four of those guys are at (or past) the point where forwards typically start to see pretty big dips in production. Obviously there are plenty of forwards who can maintain good production into their 30s, but your average player doesn’t.
Do you have actual numbers to support this? Because you make it seem like its rare for 30 and 31 year olds to maintain production when I'm pretty sure that's not statistically supported.
 
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RegDunlop

Registered User
Nov 5, 2016
3,823
4,121
Edmonton
Fellas
Excited we're finally here!!

Been reading off and on most of summer but I don't usually post.
Thank you to all the regulars who keep the home fires burning here.
Looking forward to spending this championship season with y'all starting tonight. Number 6 here we come!!
 

Spawn

Something in the water
Feb 20, 2006
44,360
16,824
Edmonton
Do you have actual numbers to support this? Because you make it seem like its rare for 30 and 31 year olds to maintain production when I'm pretty sure that's not statistically supported.

There have been lots of posts/studies about it over the years

Here’s just one for example:


In addition, we now have an estimate of how even strength scoring ability changes through a player's 30's. On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp -- they hit 80% at age 31, 70% at age 32-33, and 60% at age 35

I know we’d love to say… oh our guys are different or point to injuries or whatever. But injuries are part of what slow guys down over time as they age.
 
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russ99

Registered User
Jun 9, 2011
3,825
2,840
Do you have actual numbers to support this? Because you make it seem like it’s rare for 30 and 31 year olds to maintain production when I'm pretty sure that's not statistically supported.
Secondary scoring from the bottom six is nice, but not the reason we have those guys. If you’re going to judge them solely on offensive output it’s never going to measure up.
 
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tiger_80

Registered User
Apr 11, 2007
10,274
3,560
I mean I don't really care about Taylor Swift (though I have no real animus against her either, seems like a nice enough person), but even in say the 80s winning 2 tickets to whoever would be the equivalent to her in that era, like Michael Jackson or Madonna or something would be a pretty big deal lol.
Could be Brett Kissel or even Phil Kessel.
 

McDrai

Registered User
Mar 29, 2009
24,668
19,960
The nice thing about this game is that it’s not all or nothing. Won’t be terribly deflating if we lose :laugh:
 

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
78,043
40,821
Alberta
It's up, I'm damned proud of it.
 

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CycloneSweep

Registered User
Sep 27, 2017
50,679
42,360
Yup a guy who’s spent a career scoring 20/30 goals a year on teams that don’t have a mcdavid or Draisaitl is a wild card. Like always you’re just assuming the worse case on absolutely everything.

For a guy who eats so much crow it could be considered animal cruelty, you sure don’t ever learn your lesson.
I’m not wrong about everything and I’m not right about everything. I was absolutely right about Brown being an awful dman. I was wrong about Connor Brown being a productive player offensively last year.

Skinner is a wild card because he hasn’t played with any expectations in years and is coming off a pretty down year for him that got him bought out. The wild card part of him is if he can make up for his massive defensive issues to his game and if he will crumble under expectations.

And I’m not assuming the worst case on everything. I don’t think our d is good enough but we definitely have the time to address it. I’m being realistic about a few players who have started their declines at an age that…you know, non elite players decline.
 

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