Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[Bcap88]

Like some have said there’s really no downside here we have a need at both wing and d and whatever pick will fill said need with hopefully w high caliber player

 

[Guttersniped]

Regarding the first part, so are you saying that if Capitals were given a possibility to draft Ovechkin's literal clone, they should say "no, thanks" because they already have one Ovechkin in this spot? Nashville literally drafted Seth Jones into the logjam of D and fixed that by trading him for perceived young #1C Ryan Johansen. They had an enormous need for a center but still, they ignored their need because they believed Jones is a better prospect than Monahan or Lindholm.

Regarding the second part, this is like, all your opinion. If you believe that multiple prospects are equal, then of course, "a need" is the only thing separating them but:

1) I don't think that many people believe that Slafkovsky/Jiricek/Nemec/Cooley are equal (before even adding Savoie, Nazar to this crop). Judging by what people write here, most people prefer player X over player Y.

2) If you spend thousands or millions of US$ to run your scouting department, them coming back saying that "You know what, boss, Jiricek, Nazar, Cooley, Nemec, Slafkovsky are all entirely equal, pick up whoever fits the need." is absurd. IMO, "equal" prospects exist only in rationales of people who want to push the "team need" narrative. And that's fine, this narrative is fine for mock drafts (otherwise those would be rankings with players assigned to teams) and building a team on the forum, however in the real life, BPA works better because if you maximize value via draft, you can fix the team needs by trading value from the area of strength to the area of relative weakness.

After we spent forever agonizing over Sanderson vs Drysdale (for no reason), the Ducks went into the 2020 draft planning to take either of them if one was left at #6.

They presumably preferred one defenseman over the other but the plan was to get at least one of the two top defensemen.

So they thought the defensemen were better than the entire forward group that would still be around when they picked at #6.

Or maybe the fact that they drafted Zegras at #7 in the draft before and another forward with their 2nd pick played a part too. And the fact that they drafted two forwards with their first two picks in three drafts before in 2016-18.

They also had a late 1st in 2020 and that draft was pretty deep with forwards. So it made sense to draft a defenseman with their first pick. Need, specifically in your prospect pool and not necessarily in your line-up, is going to play a part in drafting.

If the team thinks Cooley is going to be a complete dominant stud and much better than Slafkovsky? Then they take him. Not sure that’s the case.

And power forwards have plenty of trade value if they hit. Kemell is a guy you can knock for trade value. Or Holtz, for that matter, they’re just scoring wingers. They’re very boom or bust by nature, and even if they hit it’s still a type of player that gets moved often enough.

If we’re considering a defenseman we would literally have to choose between Nemec vs Jiricek and I assume our scouts have an opinion there.

Seth Jones was seen as the potential 1OA in 2013, he would be hard to pass up at #4.

Florida had taken a defenseman at #23 in 2012, one at #3 in 2010 and one at #14 in 2009 and that probably played a part in why they took Barkov.

Tampa had taken defenseman at #10 in 2012 and one at #2 in 2009, so they went with a forward as well with Drouin at #3.

The Preds couldn’t pass up Jones at #4 and they actually hadn’t drafted a defenseman with their top pick since 2009 (#11). They had a strong defensive core because the non-1st round defensemen they picked turned into studs (Josi, Ekholm) and most of their forward selections everywhere didn’t.

Is that the longest post you’ve made without the use of florid profanity?

I did say I was punchy.

 

[Billdo]

"Tough spot" is right.

'Cause then it would be :

1.) Do we take Shane?
2.) Do we draft Nemec?
3.) Do we draft Jiricek?
4.) Do we trade the pick?

I have a feeling Fitz would rather choose a D-man if Slaf wasn't available, then draft another Center.


That's my thought, too.

I think both teams' GM's would salivate at the opportunity to somehow draft Shane Wright if MTL galaxy-brains their pick.

Plus if Slaf is gone they both need a center more than we do, so we can get whatever additions to their pick AND get Nemec or Jiricek. You run the risk of Wright being a superstar but I don't think he'll be that anyway.

 

[RSeen]

I must attest though to the idea of a top-pair RD coming up as Hamilton ages and playing possibly with Luke Hughes on what could be a top pair in the league...

Its very, very convincing and the depth at RD would certainly help us considering the lack of prospects in that department. Though technically Luke could play the right and maybe one of our LD blossoms into a top-4 role?

Still though, a top pair RD is probably the more valuable asset and much harder to find than a winger. Then again we may already have a solid enough foundation with Luke/Siegenthaler and Hamilton/Severson. And with rumors of Severson wanting to re-sign I wouldnt blame Fitzgerald for getting antsy and leaning toward a more 'needed' player in Slafkovsky, then take some shots over rest of this and the next few drafts at RD.

Defense twice in back to back drafts top-4 would be bold and Id respect the attention to detail for the future core. Because in theory having two 1st overall centers should lower the amount of or level of draft capital you have to dedicate to their wings.

The one issue I have with draft another Dman is we don't have much PP opportunity to provide. Ideally you only want 1D on each unit and that is likely going to be Dougie and Luke once he arrives. You potentially go with 2D on the second unit if you have to but its usually more effective to have 1D.

Regardless, if one of the D are the BPA, you should probably still draft them and try to figure it out.

 

[Eggtimer]

I think with Hamilton and Luke they go forward with #2 .

 

[FooteBahl]

Is that the longest post you’ve made without the use of florid profanity?

f*** those Floridians

 

[BurntToast]

I thought Slafkovský played great. It feels like he has high hockey IQ. He was very noticeable. Slaf was able to chip the puck-out to set up a goal, set up the screen on Tatars goal, and made a sweet bank pass off the boards (with the open net). What are the Devils weaknesses again? He checked every box in game one.

 

[devilsblood]

Slaf is my preference and anyone who thinks we should trade a 2OA for Kevin f***ing Fiala shouldnt watch hockey ever again

Kevin Fiala is 25th in the league over the last 3 years in terms of goals scored in the NHL. 32nd in points.

We can only hope that whoever we draft has that level of impact in the league.

I'm not advocating trading the pick for Fiala, but it has nothing to do with watching hockey.

 

[Devs3cups]

We're getting a good player. Hell of a lot better one than we would be getting if we had normal goaltending lol. we should all be happy with adding one of Wright, Slaf, Jiricek, Nemec or Cooley. That's my mindset at least lol.

 

[Bad Goalie]

As long as he gets his 9(?) game stint from opening night, Im okay with the AHL route.

My main gripe was him not getting any games out of camp. For his size and apparent acumen Id be slightly disappointed by that (and more disappointed by a Liiga return, which as you state doesnt help his NA game)

If we draft him id like his ELC signed as soon as possible.

Is the 9-game route your thought on how many games it takes to decide if he's good enough?
He's not coming out of Canadian Jrs.where the rule is only 9 games at the NHL level and after that he can't be sent back. He can play as many games as NJ wants to give him before making a decision. He can go up and down as well during the season. They could decide AHL after 5 games or after 20 games say it's probably better if we let him go down and get 1st line duty, regain his confidence, and adjust his game to where we'd like him to get. Success at that level is more important to his progress than doing just okay in the NHL.

 

[devilsblood]

The one issue I have with draft another Dman is we don't have much PP opportunity to provide. Ideally you only want 1D on each unit and that is likely going to be Dougie and Luke once he arrives. You potentially go with 2D on the second unit if you have to but its usually more effective to have 1D.

Regardless, if one of the D are the BPA, you should probably still draft them and try to figure it out.

If the D options at 2nd OA are strong defensively I don't worry about PP oppurtunities. And if the BPA at our pick is a RD then picking a RD is an easy call.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Only 55 more days until the draft!

 

[Nico Hischier]

I think jiricek is more likely to become a top pair franchise defenseman than slafkovsky becoming a top pair franchise winger. But what do I know... jiricek could end up like adam Larsson and slafkovsky could be mikko rantanen

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I'm not sure you can really go wrong at 2nd overall, but the more I read and watch about Slafkovsky, the more I like the idea of having a big top-6 winger that's more Joe Thornton than Milan Lucic. A I don't really care if he crashes and bangs and works the boards. If he has good hands and a good playmaking IQ, he could be invaluable in the Devils' top-6 for a long time.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I'm not sure you can really go wrong at 2nd overall, but the more I read and watch about Slafkovsky, the more I like the idea of having a big top-6 winger that's more Joe Thornton than Milan Lucic. A I don't really care if he crashes and bangs and works the boards. If he has good hands and a good playmaking IQ, he could be invaluable in the Devils' top-6 for a long time.

People saying they don't want a Kakko situation, but Kakko seems to be figuring it out and i would totally have him on our team next to Jack

 

[Billdo]

I think jiricek is more likely to become a top pair franchise defenseman than slafkovsky becoming a top pair franchise winger. But what do I know... jiricek could end up like adam Larsson and slafkovsky could be mikko rantanen

Jiricek would end up like Josi and Slaf could be Zacha too though, the draft is a crap shoot unless they're "generational" like McDavid, Matthews, presumably Bedard, etc

 

[Oneiro]

All fans project things onto future draft picks that don’t hold water but we’ve reached fan fic levels on Slaf. I don’t see anything too extraordinary from any of the guys we’re discussing, especially IQ wise. Compare these guys to a young Couturier or Doughty. Do you think any of them think the game as well as those guys did? Because that’s the kind of player that makes an impact fast - and it’s not any of this crew. Thrilled to draft any of them but there are some serious visualization exercises going on here.

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

All fans project things onto future draft picks that don’t hold water but we’ve reached fan fic levels on Slaf. I don’t see anything too extraordinary from any of the guys we’re discussing, especially IQ wise. Compare these guys to a young Couturier or Doughty. Do you think any of them think the game as well as those guys did? Because that’s the kind of player that makes an impact fast - and it’s not any of this crew. Thrilled to draft any of them but there are some serious visualization exercises going on here.

Couturier made a fast impact? I seem to remember him being more of a late bloomer.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

All fans project things onto future draft picks that don’t hold water but we’ve reached fan fic levels on Slaf. I don’t see anything too extraordinary from any of the guys we’re discussing, especially IQ wise. Compare these guys to a young Couturier or Doughty. Do you think any of them think the game as well as those guys did? Because that’s the kind of player that makes an impact fast - and it’s not any of this crew. Thrilled to draft any of them but there are some serious visualization exercises going on here.

Couturier made a fast impact? I seem to remember him being more of a late bloomer.

Ya Couturier was a late birthday from the previous draft year that stepped into the league as an 18-19 year old but didn’t actually have much of an impact at least from a production standpoint for a while. Didn’t even have a season over 0.5ppg until his 5th season when he was 22-23 and then didn’t really breakout as a big producer until his 7th season when he was 24-25. Certainly wasn’t an instant impact.

Couturier was also an 8th overall pick so I don’t know why you’re acting like Couturier was much better at the same age. Slafkovsky thinks the game well IMO. I don’t think he’s definitely ready next season but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was and it wouldn’t surprise me if he had a better impact than Couturier’s 27 point rookie season.

Doughty on the other hand was a second overall pick who had an instant impact. Not fair to expect that from our second pick.

Should mention that Couturier has had a reputation for a while as being good all around and defensively responsible and I don’t remember but I’m sure he was decent at that in his younger years. But he still wasn’t having that much of an instant impact in his early years as a 34 point guy.

 

[Oneiro]

Ya Couturier was a late birthday from the previous draft year that stepped into the league as an 18-19 year old but didn’t actually have much of an impact at least from a production standpoint for a while. Didn’t even have a season over 0.5ppg until his 5th season when he was 22-23 and then didn’t really breakout as a big producer until his 7th season when he was 24-25. Certainly wasn’t an instant impact.

Couturier was also an 8th overall pick so I don’t know why you’re acting like Couturier was much better at the same age. Slafkovsky thinks the game well IMO. I don’t think he’s definitely ready next season but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was and it wouldn’t surprise me if he had a better impact than Couturier’s 27 point rookie season.

Doughty on the other hand was a second overall pick who had an instant impact. Not fair to expect that from our second pick.

You’re thinking offensively. I’m talking about 200 ft game - he belonged instantly. Offense came later.

Broader point is I think most, if not all these guys go the Holtz, not Mercer, path. And no I don't see a player as smart as Couturier in Slafkovsky.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

You’re thinking offensively. I’m talking about 200 ft game - he belonged instantly. Offense came later.

Broader point is I think most, if not all these guys go the Holtz, not Mercer, path.

Ya I added that in but it is not some dreamland, fan fic idea to think that Slafkovsky could come in and be able to play at the NHL level right away.

I think most of them do too. But I think there’s a 95% chance Shane Wright plays next year and does fine and I think Slafkovsky could do well enough and make it out of camp and then stick. He has the tools and IMO thinks the game well. I’m not saying he will but it’s not unrealistic to thinks it reasonably possible.

 

[Tretyak 20]

Yeah which is even more crazy when you think about it. Legit one job for a goalie from day 1 of playing the game. One job in a 1-0 or 5-0 game and that’s to stop the puck. Why can an 18 year old play in the physical Nhl with grown men but goalies can’t figure it out?

As a goalie myself I can tell you success at the position is about 60% in your head. You've got to learn a huge amount of poise and focus, and learn to never get rattled. Not attributes teens are usually known for. The minute you start second-guessing yourself your game will go all to hell - doesn't matter how talented you are.

 

[njdevils1982]

nm

 

[Guttersniped]

Ya I added that in but it is not some dreamland, fan fic idea to think that Slafkovsky could come in and be able to play at the NHL level right away.

I think most of them do too. But I think there’s a 95% chance Shane Wright plays next year and does fine and I think Slafkovsky could do well enough and make it out of camp and then stick. He has the tools and IMO thinks the game well. I’m not saying he will but it’s not unrealistic to thinks it reasonably possible.

He’ll be 18 years old, it’s pretty unrealistic.

Rantanen, if we’re using him as a comparison, had an October birthday so he got to play another season in Liiga before his draft year.

Ratanen then came over at 19 in 2015-16 (his D+1 year but the equivalent of Slaf’s D+2 year) and played 9 games in the NHL and had zero points. He scored 60 points, with 24 goals, in 54 AHL regular season games.

In 2016-17, at 20, he played 4 AHL games and had 2 assists. He played 78 NHL regular season games and had 38 points with 20 goals.

He had 84 points, with 29 goals, in 81 regular season games in 2017-18 at 21. He played in 6 playoff games and 4 assists.

They aren’t the same player but I doubt Slafkovsky matures faster than Ratanen and bigger players don’t traditionally make it that quickly. Considering that the team has discussed not rushing guys, I doubt he plays in the NHL that quickly.

Another question is if he even comes over to the AHL or stays in Liiga for another season.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

He’ll be 18 years old, it’s pretty unrealistic.

Rantanen, if we’re using him as a comparison, had an October birthday so he got to play another season in Liiga before his draft year.

Ratanen then came over at 19 in 2015-16 (his D+1 year but the equivalent of Slaf’s D+2 year) and played 9 games in the NHL and had zero points. He scored 60 points, with 24 goals, in 54 AHL regular season games.

In 2016-17, at 20, he played 4 AHL games and had 2 assists. He played 78 NHL regular season games and had 38 points with 20 goals.

He had 84 points, with 29 goals, in 81 regular season games in 2017-18 at 21. He played in 6 playoff games and 4 assists.

They aren’t the same player but I doubt Slafkovsky matures faster than Ratanen and bigger players don’t traditionally make it that quickly. Considering that the team has discussed not rushing guys, I doubt he plays in the NHL that quickly.

Another question is if he even comes over to the AHL or stays in Liiga for another season.

First I’d much rather him come over right away to the AHL. Let’s him acclimated to NA, familiarize himself with the organization and then he can get a shot in the big leagues if earns it.

I also don’t think it’s close to as unrealistic as you’re suggesting. Him being a second overall pick on its own makes it less unrealistic than you’re suggesting. How many 2nd overall picks other than Beniers who came in at the end of the season, haven’t come right in. It is a weaker than average draft and that doesn’t mean the Devils would rush him but it certainly could give him a chance to make it with a strong camp if they choose to bring him right over.

There’s also always surprise players that make it much earlier than expected like Sillinger this year. It isn’t unrealistic to suggest a 2nd overall pick who doesn’t have any really major holes in his game could possibly make the NHL right away. Not saying he’s gonna tear it up. But if they decide to bring him over and he does well in camp they could quite possibly decide to give him a shot. Not saying it’s gonna happen. If I had to guess I’d say he probably takes an extra year but it’s certainly possible.