Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[hidek91]

I mean how is a guy who didn't even have a higher PPG than a f***ing Dman picked 20th overall and only barely had one after his ice time got bumped a bit seen as this slam dunk 2nd overall pick??? It just makes NO sense.

We just can't pick Cooley. You're not allowed to have 3 great undersized forwards on one team. It's not allowed.

2015 was different story though. That draft was so deep that lots of those prospects would have attacked top 3 in other draft years.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

There it is the first of my many vote changes

edit: Slaf to Jiricek if you are curious

 

[Hisch13r]

2015 was different story though. That draft was so deep that lots of those prospects would have attacked top 3 in other draft years.

I don't really know what you're getting at. I was talking about how Slaf even after the jump in ice time barely had a higher PPG than Heinola. That's not a 2nd overall player.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don't really know what you're getting at. I was talking about how Slaf even after the jump in ice time barely had a higher PPG than Heinola. That's not a 2nd overall player.

What more do you need to know than that it’s about a lot more than production. There’s so much context and it’s stupid to just look at production and decide that he isn’t a worthy 2nd overall selection because this was his production and this was someone else’s. There’s so much context not being taken into account with that and so much more that goes into scouting than that. He has an elite set of tools and plays a hard nosed, physical game.

Heinola had some damn good production in his draft year. Good enough to be taken higher than he was. But it’s not just about production. I don’t even know/remember his situation either. Especially with a dman. Maybe he got the opportunity to run the top powerplay which ended up being very good. Not saying that happened but that would be a pretty easy way for a young skilled defensmen to grab 14 points in 34 games. Or maybe he was just put in a lot of offensive opportunities and made the most of them. Doesn’t mean he should’ve immediately been a top 10 pick.


Lucas Raymond was doubted as a prospect because of his production. He put up slightly worse production than Slafkovsky in a bit better of a league. Then he put up 18 points in 34 games (only 6 goals) in the season after being drafted.
Then he goes right from that to 57 points (23 goals) in the NHL in his second season post draft.
That’s all because he had a really good and translatable skillset. Didn’t do that great in a mens league in Europe. But he had the tools. That’s what scouts are hired to do. Watch the players and figure out who’s gonna be a good NHL player. Not just look at the stats
I think Slafkovsky will have similar success and his skillset should translate very well IMO.

 

[Hisch13r]

The fact that Slaf's already physically matured and 218 pounds also scares me. There's not much more room to grow. If he was at the same level but like 30 pounds lighter I'd feel more confident that as he put on more size he'd be able to improve his game considerably.

 

[glenwo2]

I don't understand this Zacha comparison.

SLAF IS *NOT* ZACHA NOR WILL HE BE ANYTHING LIKE ZACHA!!! WTF, People??

The fact that Slaf's already physically matured and 218 pounds also scares me. There's not much more room to grow. If he was at the same level but like 30 pounds lighter I'd feel more confident that as he put on more size he'd be able to improve his game considerably.

He's 18.

Last I checked, people can still continue to mature physically after 18....unless that's illegal now because he already has a bigger frame than most at 18...OMGERD!

 

[Jersey Fresh]

I don't know what's so difficult to understand. It's not a player comparison at a micro-level. These are both guys with great "tools" who didn't have production to point to - pure projection players. That just adds another layer of volatility when you can compare him to players who actually produced, instead of wondering why they didn't.

 

[Brodeur]

The fact that Slaf's already physically matured and 218 pounds also scares me. There's not much more room to grow. If he was at the same level but like 30 pounds lighter I'd feel more confident that as he put on more size he'd be able to improve his game considerably.

We'll see how things go at the combine. It's not just weight, but how much of that is muscle.

The one I always think of was Drew Doughty and Zach Bogosian who weighed about the same going into the draft. Doughty was overweight (I think he was pushing 215-220 pounds at one point) and Bogosian looked like a beast at the combine. But the Kings liked Doughty's hockey sense and figured they could get him in a better training regimen.

That thought process doesn't always work. The Sharks thought the same thing with Steve Bernier when they drafted him over Parise/Getzlaf.

Looks like Slafkovsky (in orange) plays floorball.

 

[Triumph]

The fact that Slaf's already physically matured and 218 pounds also scares me. There's not much more room to grow. If he was at the same level but like 30 pounds lighter I'd feel more confident that as he put on more size he'd be able to improve his game considerably.

This I'm not concerned about because it's one thing to be that weight and another thing to know how to use that weight, especially in the European leagues. The World Championships should give us some answers to the questions about him.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don't know what's so difficult to understand. It's not a player comparison at a micro-level. These are both guys with great "tools" who didn't have production to point to - pure projection players. That just adds another layer of volatility when you can compare him to players who actually produced, instead of wondering why they didn't.

That doesn’t mean their tools or skillsets are equal though. I like Slafkovsky skillset and how he plays more and that’s why I want us to take him. You’re also comparing their production at completely different levels. You have no clue if Cooley would’ve produced better than Slafkovsky in LIIGA. Him having great production with the NTDP doesn’t guarentee that he’s gonna have great production in the NHL. Context is also so important. Cooley played on a NTDP team designed to help him succeed with multiple other high-end prospects. Some of them produced at a similar levels to him. Particularly over the last half of the season. Slafkovsky moved to a different country as a teenager to play in a mens hockey league where he struggled to get opportunity for most of the season. Completely different situations. Production is certainly worth looking at. But you have to watch the prospects.
Scouts do that. And they look at their skillsets and so many other aspects and that’s how they figure out if they think a prospect will succeed at the NHL level. A lot of Scouts clearly believe Slafkovsky projects as a good NHL player and I agree.

And this is also why Slafkovsky doing so well against a strong level of competition at the Olympics probably helped his stock so much. A player with a great skillset who maybe hasn’t been in an ideal situation for most of the season but is still considered a top prospect because of his skillset gets an opportunity with his national team and he does incredibly well. He turns that great skillset into really good production and dominance even if it’s just over 7 games. He showed them the one thing they hadn’t seen yet when he got an opportunity. It was also on NHL sized ice. He then came back and was given more opportunity with his club for the final 10 games and he does much better putting up more points in the final 10 regular season games than he did in the previous 21 games.

The world championships might be pretty big for him.

 

[The Wumpus]

Don't forget Zacha had like 2-3 concussions after we drafted him. That might have a lot to do with why the timid player we see in NJ is nothing like the scouting reports from Sarnia.

 

[beekay414]

Well the Slaf is Zacha stuff didn't take long to take off, did it? Almost made it a whole 2 days!

 

[Goptor]

Is Nemec's shot salvageable enough to play on an NHL power play?

He sounds great as a 50pt play every situation minutes eater.
Less great as a 30pt 5on5 mainstay.

 

[Guttersniped]

Btw, it's pretty insane how lucky the Devils have been in the draft.
Two 1sts, a 2nd, two 4ths in the last decade. That's five top 5 picks. Crazy luck.

Yeah, I thought it was ridiculous when everyone was posting all sorts of complicated scenarios for us if we won the 1OA. I was convinced people were just spoiled with past wins and then… *shrug*

I don’t even care that much about the player debates, I just didn’t want to pick 6th or 7th.

In 2020 I wanted 3rd for Stützle, my favorite of the top guys. When that didn’t happen it became about various fantasy scenarios where Raymond or one of the big two defensemen made it to us at 7th (Detroit definitely taking Perfetti for some random reason! Ottawa is going goalie with their second pick! Drysdale is too short for Anaheim!).

We waited so f***ing long for that draft to happen too. The draft was on Oct 6-7 2021, while the 1st lottery (Team E won the 1st pick lol) was before the bubble playoffs on June 26, 2020 and the second draft was on August 10, 2020.

Our last game was on March 10, 2020. So we waited 5 months for the draft winners and 7 months for the actual draft. I spent those endless months agonizing over Sanderson vs Drysdale (for those playing at home, I started on Team Drysdale and then dramatically switched) for no particular reason. After the draft Bob Murray said Anaheim just wanted one of the two defensemen, so he was happy. I’m going to follow Bob’s (public) example now.

We also waited 10 months for another Devils hockey game. I remember some posters saying “maybe it’s me, but it seems like we’ve been waiting forever for the draft, Devils hockey, etc” even though it was very much not them, we did actually have to wait forever for those things to occur. (We also discussed prospects forever and yet most of still didn’t know who Mukhamadullin was when we drafted him lol.)

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Is Nemec's shot salvageable enough to play on an NHL power play?

He sounds great as a 50pt play every situation minutes eater.
Less great as a 30pt 5on5 mainstay.

His shot is fine. And could certainly and probably will improve.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Well the Slaf is Zacha stuff didn't take long to take off, did it? Almost made it a whole 2 days!

 

[NJ DevLolz]

I love the idea of Slafkovsky, I really do. Devils could use a immensely skilled power forward who would diversify the attack to play next to Jack or Nico. However, his statistical output can not and should not be ignored.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

I believe there’s 4 players to choose for the second pick. Center or not it sounds like Cooley may be the best player in the draft. Size seems to be the only minus. I don’t mind going 3 strong down the middle and move Mercer to wing and sign a UFA forward. From what the scouts say Logan has the best shot, best skater, top IQ and excellent work ethic. I wouldn’t count this kid out

 

[Hisch13r]

Is Nemec's shot salvageable enough to play on an NHL power play?

He sounds great as a 50pt play every situation minutes eater.
Less great as a 30pt 5on5 mainstay.

I mean he very likely wouldn't be PP1 here anyway.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I love the idea of Slafkovsky, I really do. Devils could use a immensely skilled power forward who would diversify the attack to play next to Jack or Nico. However, his statistical output can not and should not be ignored.

Neither can context. Or everything else that goes into projection how good a kid will be at the NHL level. NHL scouts spend an incredible amount of time watching these kids and trying to project how well their game will translate at the next level.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

This screams Zacha 2.0 in terms of thiccboi who has the toolbox but something is missing. Whether it be finding soft spots in the offensive zone or not being a good small zone player, he is certainly not this slam dunk that everyone is making him out to be. Of course I haven't watched a second of him so my opinion means shit but outright dismissing a guy lake Bader is somewhat foolish. His model is literally based on historical outcomes.

Neither can context. Or everything else that goes into projection how good a kid will be at the NHL level. NHL scouts spend an incredible amount of time watching these kids and trying to project how well their game will translate at the next level.

They said the same thing about Pavel Zacha and Lawson Crouse

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I believe there’s 4 players to choose for the second pick. Center or not it sounds like Cooley may be the best player in the draft. Size seems to be the only minus. I don’t mind going 3 strong down the middle and move Mercer to wing and sign a UFA forward. From what the scouts say Logan has the best shot, best skater, top IQ and excellent work ethic. I wouldn’t count this kid out

He shouldn’t be counted out. He’s probably the 2nd or 3rd most likely player we pick IMO as of right now. He doesn’t have the best shot though.

 

[JrFischer54]

If the devils won the first pick would the unanimous decision be wright?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

This screams Zacha 2.0 in terms of thiccboi who has the toolbox but something is missing. Whether it be finding soft spots in the offensive zone or not being a good small zone player, he is certainly not this slam dunk that everyone is making him out to be. Of course I haven't watched a second of him so my opinion means shit but outright dismissing a guy lake Bader is somewhat foolish. His model is literally based on historical outcomes.


They said the same thing about Pavel Zacha and Lawson Crouse

Yes and they said the same thing about Raymond and many other players that have turned out really well.

His model is based on numbers and while it shouldn’t be completely dismissed there is so much more than productions that goes into scouting.

 

[JrFischer54]

If all these players are so close and all can bust. It makes more sense to trade the pic for proven nhl talent.