If all players are equal you draft for need. To me it's that simple.
I agree.
I suppose the next question then is what is the Devils biggest need? I keep hearing about the lack of RD depth, but that assumes that Luke Hughes will definitely be playing LD in NJ. Hasn't he been playing on the right side the past few years? Why wouldn't that continue in the NHL? Aside from having an easier time keeping pucks along the boards in the offensive zone, what are some of the other pros/cons of Luke playing RD as a left handed shot? Doesn't it open up more shooting lanes for him? Certain players (such as Ovechkin) seem to play better on their offside. Plus, with as good as he skates and is able to walk the line, I think he'll have it easier keeping pucks in the zone on his backhand than most other left shooting RD. Can someone refresh my memory as to how the Devils defensive pairings used to look during the Cup seasons when we had an abundance of left shooting D?
Hamilton already locks down a RD spot for the next 7 years. Obviously Severson is a wildcard in all this - have to hope that Fitz is working with his agent right now to see what an extension looks like as that may certainly have an impact on who the Devils draft at #2. If they can come to a reasonable number, I think the Devils should lock up Severson on a long term deal. He'll turn 28 in August, so he's still got quite a few good years left in him. The key though is to have at least a limited NTC for the deal, so that if his cap hit does become an issue a few years down the road (say when Luke, Holtz, Mercer or whoever needs a new deal) or the Devils have an abundance of depth on RD and he's the odd man out, they can trade him. As long as they're able to move him in a few years if necessary, I don't mind a bit of an overpay on an extension. Fitz just needs to figure that situation out before the draft.
So,
if you already have a locked up Hamilton and Severson on RD for the foreseeable future, there's just one spot to fill. That could certainly go to Hughes as early as the end of next season, though you also have another good candidate in Reilly Walsh. He seems to be having a solid season in Utica this year. He also just turned 23 in April. He's at the point where it's time to sink or swim. With Subban out the door, Walsh absolutely has to be given (unless he's an absolute disaster in pre-season) the 3rd pairing RD spot. Need to see what we have in him. The RD depth beyond that is admittedly weak - maybe McCarthy or Moynihan is the next top pure RD, though I'm not sure where their chances currently top out. It's also not a stretch to think that one of the LD prospects (Bahl?) could always shift over to RD at some point or even Ty Smith (who played a good amount of RD in juniors). I just certainly don't see RD as some big need for NJ - though obviously pending a Severson extension and/or Luke playing RD.
I think we can all agree that we're OK on LD. Siegenthaler was great this year, though it's only one season. Graves is solid, but a pending UFA - not sure what direction they'll go with him. Many assume Luke Hughes is our future #1 LD, which certainly may be the case. Also have a lot of depth of prospects here with Muk, Okhotyuk, Bahl, Vuko, Misyul, Edwards...either way, LD doesn't factor into the pick.
Goaltending is certainly a need, but that doesn't really factor in either unless Fitz intends to trade a prospect or two to try to fill that position. Personally, I think you go after one of the top UFA's to pair with Blackwood. Pay more for a shorter term since we have the cap space. Bernier may not be healthy by the start of the season, but you deal with that if/when it's an issue.
I think we can agree that center is the least of our worries. Between Hughes, Hischier, Mercer, Boqvist & McLeod, we should be set. I think this upcoming season is huge for Boqvist and McLeod to prove they can be #3/#4 centers on a contending team. It's nice to have the faceoffs and defense that McLeod provides, but he's still got to improve his scoring to show he can be a #4 center on a top team.
Long term top 9 currently projects as:
- Hughes
- Hischier
- Bratt
- Mercer
- Sharangovich
Feel confident in including these 5 skaters, assuming no hiccups with a Bratt extension.
Then there's:
- Holtz
No reason to believe he won't be a top 6 winger at this point, though who really knows.
- Boqvist
Need to seem him prove it again next year, but looks promising. Gives us a solid 7 out of 9. Maybe Zacha has a long-term future here, maybe not. Would hope that he's at least flipped for another top 9 forward, but again...who knows.
Have to assume some prospects also pan out between the ones listed below, though maybe some wind up on the 4th line:
- Gritsyuk
- Zetterlund
- Thompson
- Clarke
- Stillman
- Salminen
Bastian seems a decent enough 4th liner, but maybe he gets pushed out. Who knows how Wood will look post-injury, though as a pending RFA one year away from UFA, his contract will be interesting to watch this offseason. Tatar and Johnsson have no future here.
All things considered, I think adding another top line wing is the way to go, which is why I lean Slafkovsky. His stats are a bit concerning to me, but I only just starting really looking into the prospects a few days ago and most seem to have NJ taking him at #2. Doesn't hurt to add his size to an otherwise relatively small forward group.