It must be really hard for you to move your neck if you didn't notice the stats the year before the one you looked at.
99 points in 78 games isn’t the best evidence in the world for predicting 120 in as little as 75 games, especially when the guy is coming off shoulder surgery.
What you should be bringing up is his electric start last season of 17 points in 6 games before his first injury of 2023-2024. Even though we can’t draw any real conclusions, it would make a little more sense for an enthusiastic call of 120.
Do players stop progressing at 21? And he paced for 97 with a broken shoulder?
The wheels on the bus go round and round
When Crosby dropped 120 at age 19, not a single one of us would have guessed that not only would he never hit that total again, but he would top 105 points just one more time throughout the remainder of his career. This stuff isn’t always linear, especially with the injury prone.
And I’d like to reiterate a small caveat. I understand his overall season pace was 97, but you said it was 97 with a broken shoulder, which is untrue (I understand he’s been able to avoid shoulder surgery for years). He had 57 points in 56 games from the first injury onwards, or an 84 point pace. The opening half dozen games really buoyed his overall totals.
Players usually don’t come back from shoulder surgery and light it up during that season, to the degree some of you are expecting from Hughes.
I think the safest thing to expect from both Hughes and the Devils is a mix of their past two seasons.
The Devils overachieved two years ago and underachieved last year. This probably makes them a 96-100 point team and third in their division.
Hughes seems capable of 115-120 one of these upcoming seasons, but 90 points in 75 games given the context is a more reasonable total to hope for.