Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - season begins!

[Billdo]

great, so trade a ~3rd round pick for a legit 4th line Center at the deadline. There is no need to trade Kovacevic.

We've got three 3rds this draft I believe as well. The only guy I am ok with trading at the deadline if we're rolling would be a guy nobody's going to want at the deadline anyway and his name rhymes with Vladar.

 

[dgibb10]

great, so trade a ~3rd round pick for a legit 4th line Center at the deadline. There is no need to trade Kovacevic.

But people here also want to trade for a top 6 winger.

And then dump palat.

See how that gets to take up a lot of our assets very quickly.


If Kovacevic keeps playing well he would be the best rental RHD on the market.

If nobody is willing to pay for him, you obviously don't trade him. IF you can turn him into a 1st, or assets to buy a 2nd line winger and 4C (Eg Toffoli rental cost to WPG last year+ Lars Eller cost just now), you should

 

[MVP Zacha]

But people here also want to trade for a top 6 winger.

And then dump palat.

See how that gets to take up a lot of our assets very quickly.


If Kovacevic keeps playing well he would be the best rental RHD on the market.

If nobody is willing to pay for him, you obviously don't trade him. IF you can turn him into a 1st, or assets to buy a 2nd line winger and 4C (Eg Toffoli rental cost to WPG last year+ Lars Eller cost just now), you should

Kovacevic is a guy we would be looking to trade FOR at the deadline if we are making a playoff push.

 

[dgibb10]

Again, they were pretty specific in their ask for Meier, so it had to include a top prospect and young prospect player so we aren’t getting out of losing Zetterlund & Muk.

If you want believe that Graves would have gotten a 1st, knock yourself out, but mentioning those other trades doesn’t convince me.

Chris Tanev got a 2nd, a 3rd and a depth defensive prospect. Also, Tanev is better and their contracts aren’t comparable as Tanev is 5 years older and his deal ends when he’s 40.

Gavrikov and Korpisalo together got a 1st, a 3rd and Quick, so there’s more going on there.

Orlov is better and had 72 playoff games played, including a Cup run. His deal included Hathaway, together they got a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Playoff teams don’t trade top four defenseman before the playoffs just to get a pick. A late 1st isn’t a haul.

And to bring this around to this season, I don’t see Fitz trading Kovacevic for a 2nd (if we’re lucky). If you’re arguing he’d get a 1st you’re nuts.

If you don't want to modify the Meier deal, you can keep assets in the Toffoli deal (yegor), or the Cotter deal (Holtz), or the Markstrom deal,

Graves was having an excellent season, had quality pedigree (he had previously fetcehed a 2nd), and got a sizeable contract in the offseason. He could have 100% been sold as a rental for a quality price somewhere around a 1st.

We would not have a hole at middle/top 6 wing currently if we had traded graves then.


I am not suggesting we sell Kovacevic just to sell Kovacevic. I am saying, if you can turn a surplus asset with a 2nd overall pick ready and waiting into filling other holes (we literally have MacDermid and Dowling in our lineup right now), you do it.

But we frankly cannot afford to buy a top 6 winger, AND then dump palat, without adding like a 1st of value to our asset pool. If we want to stick with Tatar, then we don't.

Casey and Kovacevic would be the ones to fit that bill

 

[dzubrus8]

Why is nobody talking about Gritsyuk? Isn’t he going to join the team in March/April?

1) Kovacevic is playing so well that it causes Fitz to rethink the defensive plan. He could fetch a 1st but Fitz wants him around

2) He comes back to earth and is maybe worth a 3rd when we have 3 already and probably would rather have the depth.

Either way I don’t think trading him is the solution, though I wish the Devils still had Zetterlund or Muk or one of those picks back to your earlier point.

 

[MartyOwns]

Depth does not win you playoff series.

The guys in your lineup do.

 

[dgibb10]

Why is nobody talking about Gritsyuk? Isn’t he going to join the team in March/April?

I'm pretty sure KHL playoffs run too late

1) Kovacevic is playing so well that it causes Fitz to rethink the defensive plan. He could fetch a 1st but Fitz wants him around

You're right that NHL gms are too risk averse to make a move like this, but they should.

2) He comes back to earth and is maybe worth a 3rd when we have 3 already and probably would rather have the depth.

This is what I expect to happen. Kovacevic will come back down, Nemec will be in the lineup anyway come playoff time.

Either way I don’t think trading him is the solution, though I wish the Devils still had Zetterlund or Muk or one of those picks back to your earlier point.

We'd have been able to keep probably our choice of

Holtz

or

Shakir (maybe have to throw in something extra here)

or

extra 1st (or close approximate)

or

Yegor

or

Zetterlund+2nd

 

[dzubrus8]

I'm pretty sure KHL playoffs run too late

You're right that NHL gms are too risk averse to make a move like this, but they should.

This is what I expect to happen. Kovacevic will come back down, Nemec will be in the lineup anyway come playoff time.

We'd have been able to keep probably our choice of

Holtz

or

Shakir (maybe have to throw in something extra here)

or

extra 1st (or close approximate)

or

Yegor

or

Zetterlund+2nd

That all sounds great but you’re presuming Kovy is still elite to be worth any of those (besides Holtz) and if he is then Fitz probably wants him around. I love the thinking I just don’t see a world where it happens. If Kovy is so good that Fitz changes his approach on defense I wonder who goes and for what. Maybe Casey at the deadline/draft for something and Dougie in summer 2026 when Nemec needs to be re signed

 

[Brodeur]

Why is nobody talking about Gritsyuk? Isn’t he going to join the team in March/April?

KHL tweaked its schedule this year. Previously their regular season would end in late February, this year it's wrapping up March 23rd. If SKA gets knocked out early, maybe there's a chance we'd get a Gritsyuk cameo in mid-late April. NHL playoffs are set to kick off on April 18. If SKA advances past the second round, we'll probably only get a paper transaction if/when he signs the mandatory ELC.

Even then it might be a tall order to toss him directly into playoff competition. When Vegas signed Nikita Gusev in Spring 2019, he joined them for a couple practices as they were in their opening round matchup against the Sharks. It didn't seem like the coaches considered using him against San Jose, but who knows if things would have changed had they advanced. Colorado had Nikolai Kovalenko join them from the KHL last year and he initially joined their AHL squad. Then injuries and Nichushkin's suspension happened which suddenly forced Kovalenko into their lineup.

 

[Devs3cups]

The type of return it would take for me to move Nemec would be absurd. Still can’t understand why people want to move him.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

Kovacevic should go absolutely nowhere, even if his play dips they replace him in the lineup with Nemec and he steps back in if he's needed.

 

[MVP Zacha]

KHL tweaked its schedule this year. Previously their regular season would end in late February, this year it's wrapping up March 23rd. If SKA gets knocked out early, maybe there's a chance we'd get a Gritsyuk cameo in mid-late April. NHL playoffs are set to kick off on April 18. If SKA advances past the second round, we'll probably only get a paper transaction if/when he signs the mandatory ELC.

Even then it might be a tall order to toss him directly into playoff competition. When Vegas signed Nikita Gusev in Spring 2019, he joined them for a couple practices as they were in their opening round matchup against the Sharks. It didn't seem like the coaches considered using him against San Jose, but who knows if things would have changed had they advanced. Colorado had Nikolai Kovalenko join them from the KHL last year and he initially joined their AHL squad. Then injuries and Nichushkin's suspension happened which suddenly forced Kovalenko into their lineup.

I am not a capologist, but do the Devils have cap room to bring him in? I can't wait to see him finally play for the Devils.

 

[Triumph]

Changing players at the deadline sucks. The Devils have acquired a ton of defensemen over the years at the deadline and almost none of them were a success - I can count on one hand the number of D who I think were contributors. Zidlicky, Lukowich, maybe Salvador, but these guys also all stayed another year so it's hard to separate in my memory what they did the first year. The number of duds is high, from memory - Housley, Ellett, Malakhov, O'Donnell, Smehlik, Klee, Havelid, and Skoula were by and large lousy, though some of them were tasked with the impossible (being on an L/L pair with another stay at home guy).

I don't like the fact that Fitzgerald is not very active at the draft with trading up and down but I am glad that he has stated the notion that the deadline is for suckers. I think it's really hard for a team to improve by a lot at the deadline.

 

[Brodeur]

I am not a capologist, but do the Devils have cap room to bring him in? I can't wait to see him finally play for the Devils.

For this year the cap wouldn't be an issue since he'd have to sign a mandatory ELC. Given the timing, he'd either join the Devils directly during the playoffs a la Gusev/Vegas or get his feet wet with Utica (Kovalenko last year) then get called up as a black ace for the playoffs when the cap stops being counted.

Even if we're fortunate to have a deep playoff run this spring, I wouldn't expect Gritsyuk to dress barring a rash of injuries.

 

[Brodeur]

Changing players at the deadline sucks. The Devils have acquired a ton of defensemen over the years at the deadline and almost none of them were a success - I can count on one hand the number of D who I think were contributors. Zidlicky, Lukowich, maybe Salvador, but these guys also all stayed another year so it's hard to separate in my memory what they did the first year. The number of duds is high, from memory - Housley, Ellett, Malakhov, O'Donnell, Smehlik, Klee, Havelid, and Skoula were by and large lousy, though some of them were tasked with the impossible (being on an L/L pair with another stay at home guy).

Malakhov 1.0 was pretty good from what I remembered although he got a lesser role on the 3rd pair + PP2 time during the 2000 run. Lou wanted to get him back at the 2004 deadline when Stevens was hurt (Sather wouldn't deal him to us) and then unfortunately signed Malakhov out of the lockout in 2005.

I don't like the fact that Fitzgerald is not very active at the draft with trading up and down but I am glad that he has stated the notion that the deadline is for suckers. I think it's really hard for a team to improve by a lot at the deadline.

Trading up and down is easier to do in the NFL draft with the sheer number of positions. If I recall correctly, the 2023 NHL 1st round featured no pick swaps.

Fitz took over in 2020 and I think there was some behind the scenes video from Buffalo's draft room with him calling about trading up to the Sabres pick at #8. Understandably the Sabres maybe didn't want to trade down to #18.

One of the usual pick trades scenario is moving a late first for a pair of seconds, maybe they considered that in 2021 with the Stillman pick (#28). Carolina traded #26 to Nashville for #39 and #50. Detroit traded #37 and #127 to move up to #35 for Shai Buium. Not sure Yzerman had more draft capital after he sent three picks to move up for Sebastian Cossa earlier in the first round.

It would have been interesting to be a fly on the wall for the 2022 Draft and whether they fielded any trade calls from Arizona or Seattle. Arizona might have felt safe staying at #3 for Cooley and Seattle could have been fine with Cooley/Wright/Nemec and didn't offer up a big asset to trade up?

This past year I thought a trade down with San Jose could have made sense, but the Sharks did that trade with Buffalo (#11) instead. Maybe Fitz knew they had the Marino trade in their back pocket and/or they were happy to just take Silayev?

This draft featured three pick for picks deals before the teams were on the clock which was a bit peculiar. It's funny, the analytics guys seem to favor trading down and accumulating, but historically the teams trading up tend to do better.

 

[MVP Zacha]

For this year the cap wouldn't be an issue since he'd have to sign a mandatory ELC. Given the timing, he'd either join the Devils directly during the playoffs a la Gusev/Vegas or get his feet wet with Utica (Kovalenko last year) then get called up as a black ace for the playoffs when the cap stops being counted.

Even if we're fortunate to have a deep playoff run this spring, I wouldn't expect Gritsyuk to dress barring a rash of injuries.

Thanks for the awesome explanation. My brain gets twisted into a pretzel trying to figure out cap space.

 

[My3Sons]

Nemec is a 20 year old 2nd overall pick who was excellent last year.

If you aren't confident in him playing on the 3rd pairing come playoff time then you should be advocating trading Nemec.

He’s 20. You are losing perspective to say it’s now or never for him

 

[NJDfan86]

barring some enormous collapse, we shouldn't be selling anything at the deadline, let alone half of one of the best shutdown defensive units in the entire league.

we can upgrade at the deadline so many different ways (hell, grits might be coming over at that point) but this would be a terrible route. definitely a loser move to make.

A “loser” move to make is to just hold on to what we have - as a competitive team and a cap team the Devils will need to make shrewd, calculated decisions about players on their roster.

If the Devils need a 2nd to unload Palat to bring in a difference maker at F this year, you wouldn’t consider moving Kovy for that pick knowing you have both Nemec and Casey in Utica?

Again - not advocating for trading him, but you have to be super myopic to not understand that he should be on the table if we can help our team get better.

 

[dzubrus8]

KHL tweaked its schedule this year. Previously their regular season would end in late February, this year it's wrapping up March 23rd. If SKA gets knocked out early, maybe there's a chance we'd get a Gritsyuk cameo in mid-late April. NHL playoffs are set to kick off on April 18. If SKA advances past the second round, we'll probably only get a paper transaction if/when he signs the mandatory ELC.

Even then it might be a tall order to toss him directly into playoff competition. When Vegas signed Nikita Gusev in Spring 2019, he joined them for a couple practices as they were in their opening round matchup against the Sharks. It didn't seem like the coaches considered using him against San Jose, but who knows if things would have changed had they advanced. Colorado had Nikolai Kovalenko join them from the KHL last year and he initially joined their AHL squad. Then injuries and Nichushkin's suspension happened which suddenly forced Kovalenko into their lineup.

Always on the money. Thanks “Satan’s wallpaper”!

 

[MartyOwns]

A “loser” move to make is to just hold on to what we have - as a competitive team and a cap team the Devils will need to make shrewd, calculated decisions about players on their roster.

If the Devils need a 2nd to unload Palat to bring in a difference maker at F this year, you wouldn’t consider moving Kovy for that pick knowing you have both Nemec and Casey in Utica?

Again - not advocating for trading him, but you have to be super myopic to not understand that he should be on the table if we can help our team get better.

a loser move is trading your best defensive defenseman right when we’ll need one the most.

the most likely deadline scenario is we part with some draft picks and a fringe prospect or two for some middle six help. i’m not against upgrading, i just want to do it without losing a defenseman who has a perfect partner and is thriving under this coach right before the playoffs. i think that’s reasonable.

 

[NJDfan86]

a loser move is trading your best defensive defenseman right when we’ll need one the most.

the most likely deadline scenario is we part with some draft picks and a fringe prospect or two for some middle six help. i’m not against upgrading, i just want to do it without losing a defenseman who has a perfect partner and is thriving under this coach right before the playoffs. i think that’s reasonable.

A) Kovy isn’t our best defensive defender, he hasn’t been this year and certainly shouldnt be ranked above Siegenthaler and Pesce who have done it more consistently.

B) I’m not even speaking about likely outcomes, otherwise none of my posts would include the disclaimers about how I don’t think it’s likely and I love how he has played so far.

If you think Kovy is untouchable in our pursuit of a Stanley Cup then you have more confidence in the composition of our team than I do. I’m willing to make any move to help - and Kovy being extremely cheap and a pending UFA makes him a desirable asset.

I will probably not go on further on this, since I was just playing devils advocate on the idea that trading good players is not a a “loser” move, it’s just a reality of a salary cap league.