Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[Saugus]

Yes, I like both of those things. If Hughes gets anywhere close to Makar's level, yes please.

 

[Blackjack]

Not to be a Debbie downer but I take college coach comments with a boulder of salt.

I hope he’s right though, we’ll win a cup if he is.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Oh baby

 

[My3Sons]

Yes, and they also signed their contracts in a lower cap environment, and they’ve both been given more ice time and more powerplay time. It’s almost like you should ignore their contracts and compare Bratt to what other elite wingers are signing for, which is where the $8 - $8.5 figure comes from.

I agree the comparables are the recent winger contracts. I think Kyrou is the most comparable? If NJ has offered at least $8 mil per and Bratt said no then it’s on Bratt to me. If NJ hasn’t offered at least $8 mil per then it’s on NJ.

 

[TBF1972]

Yes, and they also signed their contracts in a lower cap environment, and they’ve both been given more ice time and more powerplay time. It’s almost like you should ignore their contracts and compare Bratt to what other elite wingers are signing for, which is where the $8 - $8.5 figure comes from.

the cap was frozen @81.5m and now was increased by 1m. i would say the cap environment is basically the same. when hischier signed his contract - shortly before the covid outbreak - people expected the cap to raise as well.

signing long term has risk and reward for both sides. hischier and hughes on the open market would also get bigger offers than their current aav. hughes definitely was never overpaid in his career (elc and now 8m/yr). he represents much better value, than if fitz signed bratt to the hischier contract (7x7.5m) last summer.

hughes has left a lot of money on the table by signing his long-term extension before he broke out (playing on his elc). bratt isn't the victim you try him to make. he is a very good player, who seems to prioritize money the highest. that's fine and i hope he can maximize his earnings. the devils shouldn't overpay for an undersized winger tough.

 

[My3Sons]

the cap was frozen @81.5m and now was increased by 1m. i would say the cap environment is basically the same. when hischier signed his contract - shortly before the covid outbreak - people expected the cap to raise as well.

signing long term has risk and reward for both sides. hischier and hughes on the open market would also get bigger offers than their current aav. hughes definitely was never overpaid in his career (elc and now 8m/yr). he represents much better value, than if fitz signed bratt to the hischier contract (7x7.5m) last summer.

hughes has left a lot of money on the table by signing his long-term extension before he broke out (playing on his elc). bratt isn't the victim you try him to make. he is a very good player, who seems to prioritize money the highest. that's fine and i hope he can maximize his earnings. the devils shouldn't overpay for an undersized winger tough.

No, but the market is what it is. If Bratt was a UFA today what would he command? I'm skeptical he gets $9 mil per but I would expect him to get $8 mil per from someone. NJ will have to match that to keep him. If his agent is secretly that jack ass from Klutch who screwed over Nerlens Noel then sure, there will be no way to keep Bratt, but hopefully that isn't the case.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Not to be a Debbie downer but I take college coach comments with a boulder of salt.

I hope he’s right though, we’ll win a cup if he is.

I get that Luke is amazing for how he's been playing at his level of competition so far, but is he really NHL ready? (honest question)

Will be very interesting if he does get onto our roster somehow before seasons end...

Hughes mojo is high...

 

[None Shall Pass]

We definitely need scoring help, Jack, Bratt and Nico can’t keep being the only ones to put the puck in the net.

Since 12/1

Tatar has 3 goals
Zetterlund has 1 goal
Yegor has 2 goals
Mercer has 3 goals
Wood has 1 goal
Haula has 1 goal
Boqvist hast scored since Black Friday
McLeod hasn’t scored since the first rags game

This is going to kill the season if it doesn’t change

This is a very big part of our "slowdown" recently. No one except for Nico and Jack are scoring with any consistency on our top-2 lines (Bratt has been streaky at best), and no one in the bottom six is scoring at all.

 

[Devils731]

I get that Luke is amazing for how he's been playing at his level of competition so far, but is he really NHL ready? (honest question)

Will be very interesting if he does get onto our roster somehow before seasons end...

Hughes mojo is high...

Well I think Hughes plays some NHL games to burn the first year of his contract, so I think him playing at least 1 game isn’t connected to whether he is NHL ready or not.

The question of whether Luke could actually be a consistent starter for the Devils at the end of year and playoffs is a little more complicated based on my viewings of him.

I think Hughes could be a net positive player by the end of this year but you’re really taking a swing. Hughes could play fine defense and create a few magic plays that nobody else would do or he could get burned defensively a bunch and find his offense stifled against NHL defenses. Either scenario could happen with Luke being the same exact player, it may come down to situations and bounces.

Tools wise, he can step in right now and do some things nobody else on the team and few in the league can do. Mental wise, can he keep up enough not to hurt you more than the tools help? In a vacuum, I think the answer is yes but you’d want to run a sheltered 3rd pairing and be prepared to limit his minutes when protecting leads.

Not in a vacuum, if everyone is healthy, does Hughes slot into the defense permanently in a way that is worth it for the team at the end of the season? I think the answer may be no.

 

[TBF1972]

No, but the market is what it is. If Bratt was a UFA today what would he command? I'm skeptical he gets $9 mil per but I would expect him to get $8 mil per from someone. NJ will have to match that to keep him. If his agent is secretly that jack ass from Klutch who screwed over Nerlens Noel then sure, there will be no way to keep Bratt, but hopefully that isn't the case.

i only partially agree with that.

if one gm sees in bratt a 8 or 9m player and offers him that contract, that's fine. but it doesn't automatically make him an 8-9m player. dougie was signed for 9m and most people on here said, the devils overpaid and i agree. hamilton isn't a 9m player. he is too soft in his own zone and not a good enough skater in transiton. and his term is too long and expect him to vastly underperform his contract in the future.

so one gm willing to offer bratt a certain amount on a long term contract doesn't establish the market value at that mark. gm's job is to value players in contract negotiations and trades and if fitz doesn't see bratt's value lower, he shouldn't offer such an amount. especially not for a restricted free agent, who didn't sign an offer sheet for that type of money.

fitz works for the devils and his job isn't to retain bratt at the number him or his agent wishes to get. his job is to create a roster under the cap threshold, which can win a championship.

 

[My3Sons]

i only partially agree with that.

if one gm sees in bratt a 8 or 9m player and offers him that contract, that's fine. but it doesn't automatically make him an 8-9m player. dougie was signed for 9m and most people on here said, the devils overpaid and i agree. hamilton isn't a 9m player. he is too soft in his own zone and not a good enough skater in transiton. and his term is too long and expect him to vastly underperform his contract in the future.

so one gm willing to offer bratt a certain amount on a long term contract doesn't establish the market value at that mark. gm's job is to value players in contract negotiations and trades and if fitz doesn't see bratt's value lower, he shouldn't offer such an amount. especially not for a restricted free agent, who didn't sign an offer sheet for that type of money.

fitz works for the devils and his job isn't to retain bratt at the number him or his agent wishes to get. his job is to create a roster under the cap threshold, which can win a championship.

It gets into semantics, but if a GM is willing to offer Bratt a certain contract and he wants to accept that contract, NJ's choice is to more or less match or lose him. With respect to Hamilton, the Canes would seem to agree with you. They only offered him about $7 mil per if I recall? The problem with any UFA deal is they are bad values. Do you really think even MacKinnon is a $12.6 mil per player or Barkov at $10 mil per or Karlsson at $11.5 mil per for four more years at 32 years old? The Palat deal was not a great one to me. If Palat is worth $6 mil per to NJ at 31 what should Bratt get? The market dictates those big UFA deals and it will almost certainly dictate what Bratt will accept. If there was any way Bratt was going to play in the ballpark Fitz tried to establish my guess is that it would have happened already. At a certain point the ball is in Bratt's court and he can take it and leave if he chooses (I enjoy a mixed metaphor).

 

[NJDevs26]

Fitz was GM/AGM for most of our long-term deals (Hughes, Nico, Dougie). All the deals are fair and reasonable. It’s also been wildly reported that he offered north of 9 mil to Gaudreau. There’s absolutely no reason to believe he isn’t offering Bratt a fair contract.

I know it’s fantasy, but if this drags on, I’d eventually like Fitz to pull a Cashman/Judge and come straight out with his offer publicly.

Reasonable for us, but pretty much everyone here lauded the Hughes, Nico and Siegs deals as being team friendly from basically the minute they were signed. Clearly Bratt wants something closer to market value and isn’t interested in leaving money on the table the way some others did, which is his prerogative. But high noon is coming in a few months, if he won’t sign by the draft and Fitz won’t budge then you have to auction him off.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Well I think Hughes plays some NHL games to burn the first year of his contract, so I think him playing at least 1 game isn’t connected to whether he is NHL ready or not.

The question of whether Luke could actually be a consistent starter for the Devils at the end of year and playoffs is a little more complicated based on my viewings of him.

I think Hughes could be a net positive player by the end of this year but you’re really taking a swing. Hughes could play fine defense and create a few magic plays that nobody else would do or he could get burned defensively a bunch and find his offense stifled against NHL defenses. Either scenario could happen with Luke being the same exact player, it may come down to situations and bounces.

Tools wise, he can step in right now and do some things nobody else on the team and few in the league can do. Mental wise, can he keep up enough not to hurt you more than the tools help? In a vacuum, I think the answer is yes but you’d want to run a sheltered 3rd pairing and be prepared to limit his minutes when protecting leads.

Not in a vacuum, if everyone is healthy, does Hughes slot into the defense permanently in a way that is worth it for the team at the end of the season? I think the answer may be no.

I tend to lean to your opinion here. (Obviously all of this is still pure subjective/speculation based on what we we think he will do in NHL vs. other series/leagues/tournaments.)

I also think he'll could get some games in, but won't necessarily be a permanent solution until next season.

Obviously its all subjective, but I'd be surprised if he can slot in to NHL team and play as if he was always here, without all the prep/timing/preseason, etc. Sheltered pairing duty.

Anything better (expectations wise) this season would be pure candy....

 

[Jersey Fresh]

He’d better defend better than he has been. I’m willing to think a lot of it is application and being given free reign to create, but he can’t riverboat gambler at the NHL level.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I'd go up to 9m x 8 for Bratt today. There's a bit of gamesmanship in negotiations and Bratt's been a tough negotiator two times in a row so you might not want to put your cards on the table there but if that gets it done I'd sign it.

10m x 8 is harder to justify but it might be a situation where you just are happy you get him for 8 years and go along with it with the certainty that would provide.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

did anyone actually watch Cale MAkar in college? He also could not defend worth a lick either. And no, I am not saying Luke will be Makar or even anything close, but still.

I think you guys with the takes of "HE NEEDS TO BE BETTER ON DEFENSE!!!" should chill a bit. Remember the NCAAs are not a developmental league. They are simply trying to win hockey games.

 

[JrFischer54]

Oh baby

Imagine if he had legit nhl talent to work with

 

[My3Sons]

Imagine if he had legit nhl talent to work with

Look at that awful finishing. 41⁒? Must be related to his wide turns.

 

[Whaddagoal]

I still think Bratt shouldn't really be valued more than the Hughes deal. He's still too streaky, although a good comparable to Hughes (production wise) on paper.

Its unfair to rate the UFA deals to what we're trying to extend Bratt on. The Dougie thing isn't a good comparison. UFA market dynamics affect this much differently. Dougie/Palat deals are all relative to how fast/slow the market is moving for that given player position and how deep the UFA selection is overall, and how desperate teams are that summer for a player like that. Yeah, certainly, we have overpaid for Hamilton, but there was only 1 Hamilton-esque player on the market with that career proof of work. With Palat, we overpaid for him, but he was paid highly as a plan B to entice to NJ, because Gaudreau fell out and if we didn't get someone, we'd still be stuck at where we were last year with top 6 forward depth (or lack of), and also because he is coveted for his playoff history. That's just the way UFA dynamics work out. Most times you will definitely overpay for whatever the common coveted asset is.

If Bratt wants 9+ million i'd only do it for less term, like 9x3.. and see where he is at in 2-3 years if he feels he can do better he can go elsewhere OR or if he still puts up big numbers, we can just extend again. I'm not entirely convinced he will keep up the pace of 70-80points for 6-8 years, we are expecting, not because he doesn't have the skillset, but because of the consistency.

(I wish we will see more dynamite Bratt as the season continues, personally, no doubt I am hoping he will stay with us, but I'm weary about him matching his high bar demands over long haul)

But, if at moment, we sink tons of money and term and then in few years he produces less than Hughes, then its like "OK, why did we do that?"...

 

[Blackjack]

the cap was frozen @81.5m and now was increased by 1m. i would say the cap environment is basically the same. when hischier signed his contract - shortly before the covid outbreak - people expected the cap to raise as well.

I believe the cap is going up next season, which would be the first season of the extension and the proper one to measure cap hit % by. In any case, it’s a small difference, probably less than 5%.

signing long term has risk and reward for both sides. hischier and hughes on the open market would also get bigger offers than their current aav. hughes definitely was never overpaid in his career (elc and now 8m/yr). he represents much better value, than if fitz signed bratt to the hischier contract (7x7.5m) last summer.

What Hughes and Hischier would command on the open market is irrelevant to whether or not they are underpaid because they do not have access to the open market.

Based on the fact that they are both team controlled, I would say that Hischier is not underpaid at all and Hughes is only slightly underpaid. Once they hit 7 years of service and their RFA years become UFA years, yes, they are both underpaid.

hughes has left a lot of money on the table by signing his long-term extension before he broke out (playing on his elc).

And there was no guarantee he would do so. Fitz took a huge risk extending Hughes for that amount when he did, and he took a lot of criticism for it. Hughes was not prioritizing money any less than Bratt is.

bratt isn't the victim you try him to make. he is a very good player, who seems to prioritize money the highest. that's fine and i hope he can maximize his earnings. the devils shouldn't overpay for an undersized winger tough.

Once again, the guy that prioritizes money makes less than the guys that don’t? Makes no sense.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[Blackjack]

I still think Bratt shouldn't really be valued more than the Hughes deal. He's still too streaky, although a good comparable to Hughes (production wise) on paper.

Hughes’s contract is irrelevant because it was signed when Hughes had no arbitration rights and 4 more years of team control.

Its unfair to rate the UFA deals to what we're trying to extend Bratt on. The Dougie thing isn't a good comparison. UFA market dynamics affect this much differently. Dougie/Palat deals are all relative to how fast/slow the market is moving for that given player position and how deep the UFA selection is overall, and how desperate teams are that summer for a player like that. Yeah, certainly, we have overpaid for Hamilton, but there was only 1 Hamilton-esque player on the market with that career proof of work. With Palat, we overpaid for him, but he was paid highly as a plan B to entice to NJ, because Gaudreau fell out and if we didn't get someone, we'd still be stuck at where we were last year with top 6 forward depth (or lack of), and also because he is coveted for his playoff history. That's just the way UFA dynamics work out. Most times you will definitely overpay for whatever the common coveted asset is.

No one is using them for comparison. Recent young top line winger extensions have been around 8-8.5. Numerous examples have been thrown out in this thread.

If Bratt wants 9+ million i'd only do it for less term, like 9x3.. and see where he is at in 2-3 years if he feels he can do better he can go elsewhere OR or if he still puts up big numbers, we can just extend again. I'm not entirely convinced he will keep up the pace of 70-80points for 6-8 years, we are expecting, not because he doesn't have the skillset, but because of the consistency.

Bratt might actually sign a 3x9. Gets him a quick $27 million and he hits UFA again at 28.

(I wish we will see more dynamite Bratt as the season continues, personally, no doubt I am hoping he will stay with us, but I'm weary about him matching his high bar demands over long haul)

But, if at moment, we sink tons of money and term and then in few years he produces less than Hughes, then its like "OK, why did we do that?"...

There’s always a risk with signings. I think Bratt is worth the risk.

 

[glenwo2]

I thought I had posted a Naruto-referenced reply (you better believe it!) but I must've imagined things.

Though Luke being compared to Cale Makar is pretty high praise regardless.

 

[theoptimist]

The "Views" thing on Twitter is fun. Amanda is very much needed and her tweet data backs that up.

 

[bossram]

I wonder where all the, "we must re-sign Wood to a big contract, he's too valuable to our team" discourse went??