Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[Oneiro]

I’m not generally against what you’re saying but I think it’s also overstated.

The last statement makes it seem like it’s easy to find valuable scoring wingers late in the draft, rather than the Devils got lucky a few times. You can get lucky and surprised with types of players other than scoring wingers too.

Maybe they got lucky with Cam Squires or Orlov? Who knows yet.

Even if the Devils only ended up with Filmon and Vilen becoming more just a guy then that would be pretty awesome late round drafting over the last 4 years.

If it’s about luck, then you should be careful about looking for “role players” on principle. Especially because what do we demand from role players? A fairly responsible game with some level of offense. I think both of those traits, for lesser NHL players, are experience driven. Most cup teams buy their Cirelli or Hintz. I think the lack of offensive upside is too obvious with our recent picks. I don’t know how many of them could project favorably. From the outside, the process seems a bit too democratic as well.

I also think there’s a difference between many of the forwards we have picked recently and say Joey Anderson and certainly Boqvist. Now both of those guys are nothing players at the NHL level but they’ve stuck around long enough to suggest that their toolset was at least attractive to a number of NHL teams. As Triumph mentioned, I don’t know if there’s even anyone with the same persistent upward trajectory as Zetterlund in our system. We haven’t seen any surprises since Filmon’s big year.

 

[MartyOwns]

He was never mishandled. He's just not good. Parise played on the fourth line.

the pick was bad (in hindsight, sort of), the development was bad, the usage was bad, the management was bad, the public comments were bad, it was all bad. that entire situation was very un-fitz-like, in that it was a disaster top to bottom.

 

[Devils731]

We haven’t seen any surprises since Filmon’s big year.

I don’t disagree in general, but I do think there is too much fixation that guys with big numbers have the chance to surprise into NHL and guys without don’t.

If you’re saying nobody has surprised since Filmon that’s only 2 drafts ago(this recent draft hasn’t had a new season yet). There were only 10 guys drafted in those 2 years that fit the criteria and 1 of those 10 had the surprise year you’re looking for.

The 2019 draft alone had 9 guys that fit this criteria so had more chances to surprise.

Orlov played 60 games in the KHL, that’s probably more surprising/exciting than Filmon’s season, tbh.

So I think expectations on how often, how easy, and how fast they show their surprising value says that it’s too soon to judge how well the Devils recent late round drafting has gone.

 

[Xirik]

I don't get the hate for Drafting

Outside of Holtz we managed to

1. get Meier from Muk And Zetterlund,
2. didn't F up the Ham n eggo pick.
3. Got The best goalie in the draft this year with Yegorov
4. Casey was a great pick
5. Nemec > Wright
6. Filmon looks like he will become something
7. Malek is looking good
8. DAWSON FN MERCER
9. Daws might be a future starter

Drafting and development deserves better then a C+

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

He was never mishandled. He's just not good. Parise played on the fourth line.

I absolutely hate this that people bring up.

Holtz and Parise are two totally different players. You drafted Holtz because of his shot and goal scoring prowess. Parise was always going to be a gritty player that could play any type of role. It isn't the same thing.

A player with Holtz's skillset is never going to "thrive" playing a checking role. It isn't his game. He needs to be put in positions to succeed. If you didn't want him to be a goal scorer, you should have picked someone else. And even STILL, Holtz scored 16 goals.

 

[Billdo]

He was never mishandled. He's just not good. Parise played on the fourth line.

This is a lazy comparison.

 

[Xirik]

I absolutely hate this that people bring up.

Holtz and Parise are two totally different players. You drafted Holtz because of his shot and goal scoring prowess. Parise was always going to be a gritty player that could play any type of role. It isn't the same thing.

A player with Holtz's skillset is never going to "thrive" playing a checking role. It isn't his game. He needs to be put in positions to succeed. If you didn't want him to be a goal scorer, you should have picked someone else. And even STILL, Holtz scored 16 goals.

I remember the arguments over Jack Quinn vs Holtz. Holtz had the better shot but not by a whole lot while Quinn was way more well rounded. He was taken right after us too.

 

[Triumph]

I think there can be interesting discussion on if that’s a helpful measuring stick for late round picks.

All these late round picks are total crapshoots so the only thing that truly matters, NHL impact, is so rare that measuring results is extremely difficult.

Does a player carving out a career as a third liner in the Swedish Hockey league make them having been a better shot at the draft than a guy who became an accountant? Probably, but the team ended up with nothing worthwhile either way.

If my late round picks are all boom or bust then does it matter that some bust slightly less than others?

I do think the Devils have been limiting their “boom” potential by taking guys who are low offense but they may not be limiting their number of guys providing NHL benefit that much; tough to tell in the short term.

———————

I personally agree the Devils should take the big boom chance at offensive guys with flaws late in the draft but want to provide some Devils Advocacy on how I see the other side of the coin.

I think it's reductive to say a 3rd line career in the SEL - yes, sometimes that is the result of a late-round pick. But that's actually a really solid outcome for late-round guys - it's been a while since I've looked at it, but something like ~50% of 6th and 7th round picks from the mid-2010s didn't make it to that level of being at least ~average players in second-tier leagues. So yeah, you want NHLers and that's ultimately what makes an NHL team better, but not NHLers can still be useful - the Devils drafted 4 players in 2016 in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th round who they traded, none of whom became full-time NHLers, but all of whom were something of value that another team wanted, who basically held or came close to holding their draft slot value at the point they were traded (and I'd argue Rykov was worth considerably more than a 5th round pick, ditto Davies, who I think were traded for something like 3rd round value). I don't expect that sort of thing out of every draft, but I'd like to see more of it.

Shero's last draft pick was Nicola Pasic, and Nicola Pasic is a marginal player in the SEL 5 years later, but this is the kind of player the Devils just do not seem to draft anymore. Fitzgerald did at least trade down this year, and again I think the Devils are pretty well stocked on defense for the forseeable future, but there's too many holes elsewhere in the organization.

 

[theoptimist]

I absolutely hate this that people bring up.

Holtz and Parise are two totally different players. You drafted Holtz because of his shot and goal scoring prowess. Parise was always going to be a gritty player that could play any type of role. It isn't the same thing.

A player with Holtz's skillset is never going to "thrive" playing a checking role. It isn't his game. He needs to be put in positions to succeed. If you didn't want him to be a goal scorer, you should have picked someone else. And even STILL, Holtz scored 16 goals.

It's getting the little things right and Holtz struggled with this. There's a reason the H20 line was a preseason medley nearly 2 years ago (!!!). There aren't enough opportunities in this league for guys who don't want to skate or win board battles. This "he needs to be put in positions to succeed" is tantamount to a participation award, and I hate when people bring this up.

He's a young player that couldn't crack a top 5 offense and that's okay.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

It's getting the little things right and Holtz struggled with this. There's a reason the H20 line was a preseason medley nearly 2 years ago (!!!). There aren't enough opportunities in this league for guys who don't want to skate or win board battles. This "he needs to be put in positions to succeed" is tantamount to a participation award, and I hate when people bring this up.

He's a young player that couldn't crack a top 5 offense and that's okay.

They can also be mutually exclusive - it depends on the player

Plenty of talents in hockey, let alone sports, had bad attitudes or ways of going about the game. But they were either too good or physical specimens and would play well anyway

Holtz can both be that way and, if a team so chooses, possibly be unlocked by doing what ZBC says. We didnt want to nor did we need him to

Edit: feel its obvious but ill add that I dont think Holtz fits thats second paragraph description; hence he may need the extra coddling to really break out, in that specified role

 

[Better Call Sal]

Don’t know how to share it since it’s an Instagram story (and not going to screenshot it like a weirdo ) but Siegs shared a cool shot of him and Nico looking like they’re playing a 2 on 2 game in the mountains in Switzerland. Pretty cool!

 

[Devils731]

Don’t know how to share it since it’s an Instagram story (and not going to screenshot it like a weirdo ) but Siegs shared a cool shot of him and Nico looking like they’re playing a 2 on 2 game in the mountains in Switzerland. Pretty cool!

I don’t mind being a weirdo.

 

[Devs3cups]

That looks insane lol

 

[devilsblood]

I don’t mind being a weirdo. View attachment 899611View attachment 899612View attachment 899613

That's awesome.

Wonder what the elevation is. Probably a great workout way up there.

Anyone familiar with hockey scene in the himalayan's?

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

He was never mishandled. He's just not good. Parise played on the fourth line.

for every Parise, there’s a Niederreiter (please do not fact check the math on this)

 

[devilsblood]

From all of Fitz’s tenure, I don’t think we will be surprised by any skater from round 3 onward at all. It has been Lou-esque. What has it been, just Vilen and Filmon showing a bit of promise?

I just can’t get behind all the low ceiling big boy picks. I want to see a major change in the philosophy there. Think of it in terms of trade capital and not roster fit. Why take a low percentage shot when the best of these kinds of players get filtered out at the NHL levels and can be traded for with Shara, Grits, Bratt-type picks?

This ignore's the Russian's. I'm a bit skeptical of drafting those guys, but there does seem to be an excellent value aspect to it.

Late rounders also typically take awhile to pan out.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I don’t mind being a weirdo.

Stay off those couches

 

[Bleedred]

for every Parise, there’s a Niederreiter (please do not fact check the math on this)

I read that as Niedermayer and was trying to figure out the context of this comparison.

 

[Triumph]

This ignore's the Russian's. I'm a bit skeptical of drafting those guys, but there does seem to be an excellent value aspect to it.

Late rounders also typically take awhile to pan out.

The problem with the Russians is that they're in Russia and they tend to stay there much longer. The Devils have no organizational control over them. I don't have any doubt that if they're good enough, they will come over, at some point - ever since they got Misyul over here, a guy who I never expected to see in a Devils or Comets uniform, I don't have any doubts about that - but with how full the Devils' blueline is organizationally it probably won't be for a while.

 

[Forge]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1821271336792289546

 

[Nocashstyle]

That’s obviously a promotion for Novo, so that’s great for him. He deserves it. Sucks for us though.

 

[My3Sons]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1821271336792289546

He seems like a good egg. Look forward to him asking Daboll why Evan Neal still can't block.

 

[Devils731]

That’s obviously a promotion for Novo, so that’s great for him. He deserves it. Sucks for us though.

Ya, good for him. Turned a pretty thankless job into a more prestigious role at the paper.

In the next tweet he mentioned they already have a replacement lined up and put up their Twitter, so that’s good too.

https://x.com/ryannovo62/status/1821271470141796495

 

[My3Sons]

Ya, good for him. Turned a pretty thankless job into a more prestigious role at the paper.

In the next tweet he mentioned they already have a replacement lined up and put up their Twitter, so that’s good too.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1821271470141796495

If Novo wants he will go a long way in the industry. He's smart and asks genuine questions and follows up and this shows he can be diplomatic and caring as well.

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

That’s obviously a promotion for Novo, so that’s great for him. He deserves it. Sucks for us though.

Seems like for beat writers, covering the Devils is a way to get into the industry before stepping up into something that pays more. Don't blame them