Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[JimEIV]

Geezus, who is #81?


To the tune of 102 goals the last 3 seasons.

Jackson van de Leest Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Jackson van de Leest, a hockey player from Kelowna, BC born Jun 15 2001 who was active from 2016 to 2024.

www.hockeydb.com

 

[dgibb10]

That xGF% is on ice, not individual.

I just don't see where in Brady's career that he was ever a bad defender. His on ice numbers, even in his early seasons, were amongst the best on the team.


Ya, very much semantics, people don't want to accept that "hard to play against" has a specific meaning.

5v5 xGoals against/60 over the last 3 years:

Meier: 2.71
Brady: 2.81
Matthew: 2.44

And don't give me "he has no help" bullshit. Timo Meier played for the SAN JOSE SHARKS.

 

[JimEIV]

yes and Timo Meier has 103 goals over the last 3 years. Like I said, he's much closer to Timo than he is Matthew.

Nobody is saying Brady Tkachuk isn't a productive goal scorer

Timo. 111 hits. 154 last time he was healthy.

Matthew 151 hits

Brady 294 hits

Brady is on another level physical
of all 3.

 

[dgibb10]

Timo. 111 hits. 154 last time he was healthy.

Matthew 151 hits

Brady 294 hits

Brady is on another level physical
of all 3.

Just curious how many million dollars a year do you value 140 hits at between 2 otherwise identical players?

 

[woody footbreaker]

Lazar is better on the wing regardless.

Cotter-Sturm-Lazar is a 4th line I would expect to be excellent.

Cotter-Lazar-Bastian I'm not nearly as sure about, especially when you're likely 1 injury to lazar away from disaster (Kurtis Macdermid)

4th line this season

tatar-lazar-bazar (Bastian, thats how he looks out there sometimes)

 

[devilsblood]

5v5 xGoals against/60 over the last 3 years:

Meier: 2.71
Brady: 2.81
Matthew: 2.44

And don't give me "he has no help" bullshit. Timo Meier played for the SAN JOSE SHARKS.

5v5 last 2 seasons I'm seeing 2.63 Matt. 2.72 Brady.

Matt's numbers were much better in Calgary. Is that the arena scorer effect, team play, linemates, or has Matt become much worse defensively since joining Florida?

Brady had a lower on ice xGA rate then Timo did this season. Not that Timo is an ace defensive winger.

End of the day Brady is something like 55-57% xGF the last 3 year.

Just curious how many million dollars a year do you value 140 hits at between 2 otherwise identical players?

Well Brady makes less then either Timo, so negative something.

 

[devilsblood]

4th line this season

tatar-lazar-bazar (Bastian, thats how he looks out there sometimes)

For a second I thought we had a guy named Bazar, and thought, yeah, that line needs to happen.

 

[dgibb10]

5v5 last 2 seasons I'm seeing 2.63 Matt. 2.72 Brady.

Matt's numbers were much better in Calgary. Is that the arena scorer effect, team play, or has Matt become much worse defensively since joining Florida?

Brady had a lower on ice xGA rate then Timo did this season. Not that Timo is an ace defensive winger.

End of the day Brady is something like 55-57% xGF the last 3 year.


Well Brady makes less then either Timo, so negative something.

League scoring has skyrocked over the last 2 years.

League average in 5v5 xgoals/60 for teams was 2.43 or so.

The last 2 years it is 2.7

 

[dgibb10]

5v5 last 2 seasons I'm seeing 2.63 Matt. 2.72 Brady.

Matt's numbers were much better in Calgary. Is that the arena scorer effect, team play, or has Matt become much worse defensively since joining Florida?

Brady had a lower on ice xGA rate then Timo did this season. Not that Timo is an ace defensive winger.

End of the day Brady is something like 55-57% xGF the last 3 year.


Well Brady makes less then either Timo, so negative something.

Yes, Timo had an atrocious year defensively in 2023, primarily because he could barely skate due to injuries for a significant portion of it (3.25 xgoals/60 against in december).

after coming back from injury he was back to himself at 2.69 xGoals against/60 to close the year in his last 40 or so games in 2024

Over the last 3 years Brady Tkachuk is at 53.34% xgoals share 5v5. Timo Meier is at 53.54%

 

[Nubmer6]

The bottom line is, yeah Brady is a good, even great player, but you're right, most of us wouldn't trade Nemec for him.

 

[JimEIV]

Just curious how many million dollars a year do you value 140 hits at between 2 otherwise identical players?

If we are talking about value, we have to measure the entire package. Not just one element.

The bottom line is, yeah Brady is a good, even great player, but you're right, most of us wouldn't trade Nemec for him.

That's actually a really difficult decision for me.

Are we talking one for one?

 

[devilsblood]

League scoring has skyrocked over the last 2 years.

League average in 5v5 xgoals/60 for teams was 2.43 or so.

The last 2 years it is 2.7

Brady's numbers the last 2 years in terms of xGA are in line with his previous season. Slightly higher then his previous 3, but not the drastic change we've seen in Matt's numbers.

Timo's actually dropped from 21-22, into 22-23, before bouncing higher this season. Timo's injury needs to be factored in though.

The bottom line is, yeah Brady is a good, even great player, but you're right, most of us wouldn't trade Nemec for him.

But would Fitz?

If there is a player that embodies what Fitz has tried to do in terms of shaping the team, it's Brady.

Now could we propose a Casey, Mercer, picks deal? I guess but I tend to doubt that gets it done, but that would be cool.

 

[JimEIV]

.

Limericks suit you better.

Hickory dickery doc...

Oh.

 

[njdevils1982]

Ya. We drafted a @&$(@/$ giraffe.

all part of the master plan to finally convince @sabremike to become a devils fan

 

[devilsblood]

That's actually a really difficult decision for me.

Are we talking one for one?

In this hypothetical yes.

Now I tend to think we would actually have to add. I know #1D>top line winger but Brady is a much more proven player. He's a proven top line winger, while Nemec is going to be our 3rd pair RHD this season.

 

[dgibb10]

If we are talking about value, we have to measure the entire package. Not just one element.


That's actually a really difficult decision for me.

Are we talking one for one?

Well we have established that all the other elements are virtually identical.

So again, how much does 150 hits, and a few fights a year provide in value compared to a player without that.

 

[njdevils1982]

MEAN PEOPLE RULE.

 

[sabremike]

all part of the master plan to finally convince @sabremike to become a devils fan

 

[Nubmer6]

Brady's numbers the last 2 years in terms of xGA are in line with his previous season. Slightly higher then his previous 3, but not the drastic change we've seen in Matt's numbers.

Timo's actually dropped from 21-22, into 22-23, before bouncing higher this season. Timo's injury needs to be factored in though.


But would Fitz?

If there is a player that embodies what Fitz has tried to do in terms of shaping the team, it's Brady.

Now could we propose a Casey, Mercer, picks deal? I guess but I tend to doubt that gets it done, but that would be cool.

If Brady wants out, which is the only reason they'd trade him, we don't need to offer equal value. We just need to offer more than anyone else.

It's like if we're hiking and the woods and we come across a bear, I don't need to outrun the bear. I just need to outrun YOU.

 

[Hisch13r]

If Brady wants out, which is the only reason they'd trade him, we don't need to offer equal value. We just need to offer more than anyone else.

It's like if we're hiking and the woods and we come across a bear, I don't need to outrun the bear. I just need to outrun YOU.

I don't even think you trade him if he asks out. He has 4 years left. Unless you're getting an undeniable offer you tell him to f*** off and hope you turn the ship around to convince him to stay

 

[JimEIV]

Well we have established that all the other elements are virtually identical.

So again, how much does 150 hits, and a few fights a year provide in value compared to a player without that.

Other elements really aren't identical though.

 

[dgibb10]

Other elements really are identical though.

"So again, how much does 150 hits, and a few fights a year provide in value"

 

[JimEIV]

"So again, how much does 150 hits, and a few fights a year provide in value"

While scoring the way he does...a lot.

 

[dgibb10]

While scoring the way he does...a lot.

Compared to a player who scores at an identical rate.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Ya. We drafted a @&$(@/$ giraffe.

food takes 2-3 business days to hit his stomach