Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[Bleedred]

He was a killer for the Flames in 22-23. He gave up a goal on the first shot like 9 times lol

He wasn’t even as bad as the pre-deadline goalies we just had last year.

Moneypuck has his save percentage only one point below expected that year.

And he’s somewhat in the positives for that year on evolving hockey at a +1.5 GSAx.

I wouldn’t call that a killer.

I think of killer as someone like Vitek since the 2023 playoffs. Or even worse than that like Jon Gillies in 21-22 with an .885% on an expected .905%.

 

[JimEIV]

"It's the best we have though"

Translation-believe it whole heartedly and defend it to death, anyone who says it has flaws, "just doesn't understand it, lol." Then they come up with the new best thing and that way of looking at stats becomes outdated and useless "lol, still using that?!" Rinse repeat.

I actually like the progression of thought and the learning process that goes along with making a better method...

It's just the weird almost religious like ferver that goes a long with it....they act like they have the Rosetta Stone of truth...

It's everywhere data modeling occurs and it's whacky.

 

[My3Sons]

I actually like the progression of thought and the learning process that goes along with making a better method...

It's just the weird almost religious like ferver that goes a long with it....they act like they have the Rosetta Stone of truth...

It's everywhere data modeling occurs and it's whacky.

it may be because a number of these folks want to monetize it and to do so you have to sell it.

 

[MartyOwns]

uhh fellas we're not scheduled to have the analytics vs eye test debate until mid-august.

 

[JimEIV]

it may be because a number of these folks want to monetize it and to do so you have to sell it.

That's another thing that drives me batty... Proprietary science, what the hell is that?

Oh I can't share my model with you it's a secret... yeah no. Convenient, it can never be criticized or analyzed that way ...That's a recipe not science.

It's all over too. In every endeavor.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Ranking (bottom to top) of NJ Devils fowards:

11 Peter Cotter
10 Curtis Lazar
09 Stefan Noesen
08 Tomas Tatar
07 Erik Haula
06 Ondrej Palat
05 Dawson Mercer
04 Timo Meier
03 Nico Hischier
02 Jesper Bratt
01 Jack Hughes

I saw this ranking and thought it represented the Devils correctly. Exciting on our way to the second round of NHL hockey, the playoffs.

Let's Go Devils in '24-'25

Hischier > Bratt

 

[My3Sons]

Hischier > Bratt

I'd say it's apples and oranges. They do different things very well with some overlap.

 

[devilsblood]

Man got outscored 54-39

So is on ice GF something we now put weight in?

 

[JimEIV]

Hischier > Bratt

This oughta be good... that's better than any bait I have today.

Throw the granade in the middle of the room and duck ..or not


I love it.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

So is on ice GF something we now put weight in?

When your eye test and analytics match, yeah. He was awful.

 

[Hisch13r]

He wasn’t even as bad as the pre-deadline goalies we just had last year.

Moneypuck has his save percentage only one point below expected that year.

And he’s somewhat in the positives for that year on evolving hockey at a +1.5 GSAx.

I wouldn’t call that a killer.

I think of killer as someone like Vitek since the 2023 playoffs. Or even worse than that like Jon Gillies in 21-22 with an .885% on an expected .905%.

We just dealt with a year where we constantly went down. Constantly giving up the goal on the first shot is a killer.

 

[Edmonton East]

Ranking (bottom to top) of NJ Devils fowards:

11 Peter Cotter
10 Curtis Lazar
09 Stefan Noesen
08 Tomas Tatar
07 Erik Haula
06 Ondrej Palat
05 Dawson Mercer
04 Timo Meier
03 Nico Hischier
02 Jesper Bratt
01 Jack Hughes

I saw this ranking and thought it represented the Devils correctly. Exciting on our way to the second round of NHL hockey, the playoffs.

Let's Go Devils in '24-'25

I'll go:

12 Curtis Lazar - Tier 7
11 Nate Bastian - Tier 7
10 Peter Cotter - Tier 6 (I think he has POSSIBLE upside)
09 Tomas Tatar - Tier 6
08 Ondrej Palat - Tier 6
07 Stefan Noesen - Tier 6 (tougher player to find vs a Palat or Tatar)
06 Erik Haula - Tier 5
05 Dawson Mercer - Tier 4
04 Timo Meier - Tier 3
03 Jesper Bratt - Tier 2
02 Nico Hischier - Tier 2
01 Jack Hughes - Tier 1

 

[devilsblood]

When your eye test and analytics match, yeah. He was awful.

on ice GF is hardly analytics.

 

[JimEIV]

uhh fellas we're not scheduled to have the analytics vs eye test debate until mid-august.

Can you please post the syllabus... I was late when they were handed out...

And I like tangible results more than the eye test...

Anything beyond results is trying to prove a players is better or worse despite the actual results ...or trying to shift blame or credit for the actual results.... it's all a giant "yeah but..."

More goals than your opposition = wins. And wins are all that matter...and some people despise that simplicity.

 

[Edmonton East]

The Markstrom fanboying is dangerous. Considering this org has been one of the worst in the entire league regarding goalie valuations for several years now, you'd think folks would show a little more caution.

Even impartial outsiders who like Markstrom criticize his consistency and tendency to allow easy early goals. People can live in denial all they want, but it's a valid concern (in addition to age). It's an upgrade at the position, but remains a serious overpay imo, especially considering short contract, age, and Devs coming off awful season.

 

[tailfins]

I still go back to "the Devils are tanking to set themselves up to win multiple Cups."

The "lose to win" approach is the biggest lie I've seen on this site.

After nine years of mostly terrible hockey, the only true difference maker on this team is Jack. Maybe Luke and Nemec can join him. If they don't this team isn't winning much.

IMO, the Jack, Luke, Nemec timeline is the one this team is on. It's the biggest reason I'm concerned with Fitz's all-in approach to this year. But, maybe those guys can step up? Stevens was 30 in 1995, but Brodeur was 22 and Niedermayer was 21.

 

[JimEIV]

The Markstrom fanboying is dangerous. Considering this org has been one of the worst in the entire league regarding goalie valuations for several years now, you'd think folks would show a little more caution.

Even impartial outsiders who like Markstrom criticize his consistency and tendency to allow easy early goals. People can live in denial all they want, but it's a valid concern (in addition to age). It's an upgrade at the position, but remains a serious overpay imo, especially considering short contract, age, and Devs coming off awful season.

As long as Markstrom can stay healthy I don't think anything will matter....at least not for the regular season. Our fortunes(making the playoffs) wont be won or lost by the goaltender. They weren't last year.

 

[TrufleShufle]

I actually like the progression of thought and the learning process that goes along with making a better method...

It's just the weird almost religious like ferver that goes a long with it....they act like they have the Rosetta Stone of truth...

It's everywhere data modeling occurs and it's whacky.

Yea this is pretty much it. I'll give everything a listen and look at and love the innovation. But the "don't question it" mentality every time is crazy.

"Yea so what we were wrong and didn't have the complete picture all those other times even though we said we did? This time we nailed it, now shut up."

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

is “peter cotter” the new “3C Nico Hischier?” can someone direct me to the origin post? When will we get to the fireworks factory?

 

[JimEIV]

Yea this is pretty much it. I'll give everything a listen and look at and love the innovation. But the "don't question it" mentality every time is crazy.

"Yea so what we were wrong and didn't have the complete picture all those other times even though we said we did? This time we nailed it, now shut up."

It's funny because it's true.

 

[dgibb10]

I'll go:

12 Curtis Lazar - Tier 7
11 Nate Bastian - Tier 7
10 Peter Cotter - Tier 6 (I think he has POSSIBLE upside)
09 Tomas Tatar - Tier 6
08 Ondrej Palat - Tier 6
07 Stefan Noesen - Tier 6 (tougher player to find vs a Palat or Tatar)
06 Erik Haula - Tier 5
05 Dawson Mercer - Tier 4
04 Timo Meier - Tier 3
03 Jesper Bratt - Tier 2
02 Nico Hischier - Tier 2
01 Jack Hughes - Tier 1

Nate Bastian over Curtis Lazar is a wild take.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Nate Bastian over Curtis Lazar is a wild take.

To be fair, you are lucky Nate Bastian isn't over Jack Hughes.

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

As long as Markstrom can stay healthy I don't think anything will matter....at least not for the regular season. Our fortunes(making the playoffs) wont be won or lost by the goaltender. They weren't last year.

Wrong

 

[JimEIV]

Nate Bastian over Curtis Lazar is a wild take.

I'm more curious what those tiers mean.

To me

Tier 1: is Top line forward on any team.

Tier 2: is 2nd line forward on any team 1st line forward on some.

Tier 3: middle 6 forward on any team. 2nd line forward on some

Tier 4: 4th liner that can play up to 3rd.


There is no 5, 6, 7....those would all be extras.

Wrong

We didn't miss the playoffs because of goaltending.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Yea this is pretty much it. I'll give everything a listen and look at and love the innovation. But the "don't question it" mentality every time is crazy.

"Yea so what we were wrong and didn't have the complete picture all those other times even though we said we did? This time we nailed it, now shut up."

I’m not sure who says any of that but you sure owned that imaginary person in your head real good.

But anyway, Mercer was so obviously bad by just watching the games that I’m not sure how this even became an analytics conversation. He was pathetic — and looked so physically weak even on a team that isn’t very physical…which is why the questioning of his usage is also quite puzzling. If you couldn’t see why this player wasn’t used with Nico, you need to watch closer. Very bad!

Still think he’ll be a good player but he wasn’t even close to that last year.