Confirmed with Link: Devils sign Nathan Bastian to a 2 year deal

[MartyOwns]

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yea, for the group that tells others to watch the game they sure ignore how Johnsson actually throws his body around.

Underlying numbers suggest this was an off year, yet they are still solid and he is a lot better defensively than Bastian.

the players some do you chose to defend is laughable.

Johnsson is a better player than Bastian even with an underperforming year.

zajac outhit him playing 17 less games, and i wouldn’t exactly call zajac a physical player. nor do i expect him to be.

you can say how great he is, but unless heat maps get you points in the standings i’m not really interested. you have to produce, no disrespect to his whopping 39 hits. but again, you’re missing the point. johnsson could hit what i think his absolute ceiling is- a 20 goal guy for a few years- but we have guys who can do that, or will be able to in the next 1-2 years. we don’t need that element. we need some grit on the bottom 6, and that’s not even getting into the obvious chemistry he had with wood and mcleod- why f*** that up? for johnsson and his heat maps? no thanks

 

[Guttersniped]

L

Who’s saying I’m hanging on for another 20 goal season? He’ll put in 15 probably on average and help with more assists. Him as a third liner would be amazing once the other players start coming into their own. You guys are shitting on him while defending a 4th liner for some reason haha. We gave up nothing for Johnsson.

Wait, so Johnsson’s 11 points are somehow more magical than Bastian’s 10 points? Even though Bastian played in 41 games and his points/60 5v5 is 1.34 and Johnsson played in 50 games and his points/60 5v5 is 0.82?

Only McLeod played harder defensive minutes and Johnsson’s numbers were juiced by playing with Bratt and Hughes earlier in the year. Yet their shot creation number rates are about the same or Bastian’s are noticeably better in a few cases. And I’ll put in McLeod’s numbers in too.

ixG/60 5v5: NB = 0.66 AJ = 0.57 MM = 0.61
—-
iCF/60 5v5: NB = 9.52 AJ = 9.6 MM = 9.75
—-
iSCF/60 5v5: NB = 6.84 AJ = 6.84 MM = 6.69
—-
iHDCF/60 5v5 NB = 4.02 AJ = 2.66 MM = 3.54
——
Shots/60 5v5 NB = 5.9 AJ = 6.13 MM = 5.61
——
Shooting % 5v5 NB = 6.82% AJ = 5%
MM = 15.79%
——
Rebounds Created/60 5v5 NB = 0.94 AJ = 0.51
MM = 0.59


And that rebound created/60 is 2nd highest, below Jack and above Zacha (out of the regulars). That’s the benefit of a big body going to the net. If you raw count, it’s 16 for Hughes, 9 for Zacha, 7 for Bastian, 5 for McLeod and 5 for Johnsson.

I’m assuming that Bastian will be exposed, but I would give up Johnsson before him. Only one is 23 and coming off a 41 game rookie season. I think Bastian has more offense in him and it’s worth taking a chance on that rather seeing what we can squeeze out the last two years of Johnsson’s deal. I can’t swear to what the ceiling for Bastian is though. And McLeod is center and lines tend be based around centers so I really don’t see
protecting either of these wingers over a center.

And I’m not particularly on the Johnsson hate train, I have zero problem with him being an extra forward or if he bounces back, in the bottom six. (Or Butcher being our spare defenseman for that matter.) I wouldn’t protect him because if he has another bad year then he will be unmovable.



Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[NJDevs26]

If Johnsson has another bad year he's prime buyout material anyway.

 

[Bleedred]

If Johnsson has another bad year he's prime buyout material anyway.

If he has a bad couple of months to start the season he’ll probably be waived.

 

[HBK27]

I like Bastian, but I'm not sure he's worth paying Seattle to protect.

It's all about the cost - if it's a 4th round pick or later, I say you absolutely do it. I'd even consider giving Seattle a 3rd rounder to not pick him.

The Devils can also offer to trade Butcher to Seattle with 50% retained and a 4th rounder to take a nothing player, such as a pending UFA. Butcher has no role with this team moving forward, though at $1.87M Seattle could probably deal him for a pick or use him as a bottom pairing defender. I'd even offer the same type of deal on Johnsson instead, though I know some feel he could bounce back and NJ would be retaining salary over 2 seasons instead of 1. Maybe just Johnsson at 50% and no pick to select a pending UFA and just be done with him.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't disagree. If BUF can stomach Risto for Butcher and Thompson and something else along the lines of a lower prospect or lower pick, maybe with some retention by NJ if that helps, I'd say go for it. BUF fans seem to think Risto returns a second rounder and a player or prospect but in the flat cap world that sounds unlikely. They are sort of in a worse situation with an openly unhappy guy in the locker room. If there is any truth to NJ calling on Risto I imagine it centers around something like that.

Butcher and Thompson for Ristolainen is a very good trade for both teams. I think Ristolainen is the classic "change of scenery" guy -- Buffalo deployed him as a "shut down" guy, which is not his best role. He's far better defensively than the analytics crowd suggests and offers nice physicality, but he's really more of an offensive D who hits than a defensive-minded guy. Also, I think it's important to note that Buffalo is just a mess right now -- almost the entire team underperformed for two whole seasons -- they are poorly managed, poorly coached and the prospects are poorly developed. Any player leaving there right now should see a bump in the quality of their play.

Ristolainen is an interesting case scenario in that no one seems to understand him. The same people who claim he's one of the worst defensemen in the league are the same people who say Will Butcher is one of the best two D on the Devils, so it's safe to say we can discount their voices. Buffalo never deployed him correctly, I think most people would agree with that. He's a big kid who can skate and shoot very well. He's got a nice compete level, which makes up a bit for an average hockey IQ. He'll make some mistakes, but he'll also make some plays. I don't suggest bidding high for him, but the talked about offer of Butcher and Thompson is extremely reasonable for a player who could score around 40 points and add some much-needed physicality to the Devils back 6.

 

[StevenToddIves]

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yea, for the group that tells others to watch the game they sure ignore how Johnsson actually throws his body around.

Underlying numbers suggest this was an off year, yet they are still solid and he is a lot better defensively than Bastian.

the players some do you chose to defend is laughable.

Johnsson is a better player than Bastian even with an underperforming year.

Johnsson scored the least amount of points of any player in the entire NHL given his number of top 6 minutes. No top 6 player in the NHL -- that's 186 players -- was more inept offensively. In terms of shot generation, Johnsson was dead last, as well. Nathan Bastian scored just as many points with no top 6 minutes or PP time. These numbers are what we should all be focusing on.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Wait, so Johnsson’s 11 points are somehow more magical than Bastian’s 10 points? Even though Bastian played in 41 games and his points/60 5v5 is 1.34 and Johnsson played in 50 games and his points/60 5v5 is 0.82?

Only McLeod played harder defensive minutes and Johnsson’s numbers were juiced by playing with Bratt and Hughes earlier in the year. Yet their shot creation number rates are about the same or Bastian’s are noticeably better in a few cases. And I’ll put in McLeod’s numbers in too.

ixG/60 5v5: NB = 0.66 AJ = 0.57 MM = 0.61
—-
iCF/60 5v5: NB = 9.52 AJ = 9.6 MM = 9.75
—-
iSCF/60 5v5: NB = 6.84 AJ = 6.84 MM = 6.69
—-
iHDCF/60 5v5 NB = 4.02 AJ = 2.66 MM = 3.54
——
Shots/60 5v5 NB = 5.9 AJ = 6.13 MM = 5.61
——
Shooting % 5v5 NB = 6.82% AJ = 5%
MM = 15.79%
——
Rebounds Created/60 5v5 NB = 0.94 AJ = 0.51
MM = 0.59


And that rebound created/60 is 2nd highest, below Jack and above Zacha (out of the regulars). That’s the benefit of a big body going to the net. If you raw count, it’s 16 for Hughes, 9 for Zacha, 7 for Bastian, 5 for McLeod and 5 for Johnsson.

I’m assuming that Bastian will be exposed, but I would give up Johnsson before him. Only one is 23 and coming off a 41 game rookie season. I think Bastian has more offense in him and it’s worth taking a chance on that rather seeing what we can squeeze out the last two years of Johnsson’s deal. I can’t swear to what the ceiling for Bastian is though. And McLeod is center and lines tend be based around centers so I really don’t see
protecting either of these wingers over a center.

And I’m not particularly on the Johnsson hate train, I have zero problem with him being an extra forward or if he bounces back, in the bottom six. (Or Butcher being our spare defenseman for that matter.) I wouldn’t protect him because if he has another bad year then he will be unmovable.



Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Thanks for this. I feel the obvious solution is:

1) Trade Butcher prior to the expansion draft -- he still has value
2) Protect McLeod
3) Offer Seattle a 4th round pick to take Johnsson so the Devils can keep Bastian

I feel this is a simple solution.

 

[Triumph]

Ristolainen is awful by every measure besides points, and he has been terrible ever since he got there. The case for him is about the same as the case for Jack Johnson, who was just atrocious by every measure besides points and draft position and yet he still had his defenders even a few years ago, and there are still NHL teams signing him.

Risto might be better elsewhere, but the Sabres weren't an awful team for his entire time there, and yet he has been. Whether or not it's the Sabres' fault or his own, he was drafted 8 years ago and fixing him would be an enormous project best left to a team that's succeeding more elsewhere.

 

[Triumph]

Thanks for this. I feel the obvious solution is:

1) Trade Butcher prior to the expansion draft -- he still has value
2) Protect McLeod
3) Offer Seattle a 4th round pick to take Johnsson so the Devils can keep Bastian

I feel this is a simple solution.

Butcher does not have value. Where do you get the idea that Butcher has value? Who is trading for Butcher and then protecting him? If no one's protecting him, why would anyone trade for him before the expansion draft?

 

[Auto Pilot]

If Johnsson has another bad year he's prime buyout material anyway.

Lol that would be dumb considering he only has 2 years left on his contract.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Johnsson gets a training camp and maybe 10 games to carve out a role in NJ next year. If he fails to do that he's going to the AHL to compete with the likes of Foote/Holtz/Thompson etc to be the first call up.

 

[NJDevs26]

Lol that would be dumb considering he only has 2 years left on his contract.

And another bad year means two in a row with one year left on a $3.4 million deal. What would be the point of keeping him then…he’d absolutely be bought out as it is now unless you think they’re still not going to be spending money next offseason.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Johnsson's buyout looks fairly pointless, save only 250k (june 2022)

Andreas Johnsson Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

if he has another poor year, the buyout would likely be to just get him off the team rather than save any meaningful cap space

 

[NJDevs26]

Johnsson's buyout looks fairly pointless, save only 250k (june 2022)

Andreas Johnsson Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Jesus Toronto gave him a sweetheart deal, usually only star players get the buyout deterrent back end of contracts.

 

[Blackjack]

Jesus Toronto gave him a sweetheart deal, usually only star players get the buyout deterrent back end of contracts.

The contract was considered a bargain when they signed it, I'm guessing the structure was a concession to keep the AAV low.

Either that or it's just a Dubas special.

 

[Triumph]

The structure of Johnsson's contract was to make him tradeable and that's what they did. He can still be traded elsewhere.

 

[Pitaya]

Delete. Wrong thread

let Bastian go who cares, hes barely a fourth liner with no iq

 

[Auto Pilot]

And another bad year means two in a row with one year left on a $3.4 million deal. What would be the point of keeping him then…he’d absolutely be bought out as it is now unless you think they’re still not going to be spending money next offseason.

one bad year let’s get rid of everyone that had a single down year. Let’s get rid of Nico since he couldn’t stay healthy. I mean he’s got a long contract and cant stay healthy.

 

[Guttersniped]

Johnsson isn’t that bad, he didn’t shoot or create shots like you would hope, but there’s no way the team has the same mania about getting him off the team as some here. He’s only getting paid 2.5m in the last two years and in a worst case scenario if he’s buried in the AHL then 1.125m of the 3.4m cap hit goes away. So they aren’t buying him out.

I’m not even 100% sure they don’t protect Johnsson, as a cheap vet but I’m guessing they don’t. But while he’ll pretty useless on the PP this season this season, Johnsson has had success on it before. The bounce back season theory isn’t that crazy, I just think people wildly are underestimating the value of forward depth when dumping on Bastian. He also has can improve, I don’t know why he’s locked into his rookie numbers.

I don’t see Butcher going anywhere (unless Seattle somehow takes him but that seems unlikely), he hasn’t been productive on the power play for long while and that was his selling point. His 3.7m isn’t going anywhere unless we take something back and we do need defensemen so I don’t see us retaining salary for late pick. He’s needed for defensive depth until more bodies get here.

 

[glenwo2]

If he has a bad couple of months to start the season he’ll probably be waived.

Yep and then certain fans here will complain about that, too.

 

[Oneiro]

The problem with Shero/Fitz adding some of the peripheral skill players, like Johnsson, Johansson and Gusev (I'd throw Subban in there as well), is that they can't help a situation that isn't working well. They are gravy kind of players that, on a good squad, feast on talent mismatches. But on a bad team, you need consistent execution from veterans so that the volatility of young players doesn't wreck the whole operation. Those guys are feast or famine and don't play much of a defensive role, unlike Boyle, Lovejoy, Kulikov and Murray (yes, I know they are mostly defensemen), whose games are pretty well-defined. You know what you are getting and anything on top of that is a bonus. Look at a guy like Martinez and you can see how he can overproduce in a good situation while still giving you what he always has. I'm not saying go out and get Nick Foligno but it wouldn't surprise me to see a guy similar to that help this team way more than you'd expect.

From a skill perspective, the tier above Gusev and Johansson is a top 6 borderline star player so I get why those trades are viewed favorably. I liked them at the time too considering the cost.

But whatever - we're hopefully through that period and you hope the lessons have been learned by some young guys becoming reliable players. 2019-20 was way worse for me as a fan - that season was over two periods in.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

When comparing AJ and Bastian, try to remember the game against the Bruins when Marchand leveled Smith. AJ was there and watched what happened. He then skated away like absolutely nothing happened, I can assure you Bastian would have gone after Marchand had he been in the same spot. Should this matter? Well it does to me, and I bet a few of their teammates.

 

[Guttersniped]

The problem with Shero/Fitz adding some of the peripheral skill players, like Johnsson, Johansson and Gusev (I'd throw Subban in there as well), is that they can't help a situation that isn't working well. They are gravy kind of players that, on a good squad, feast on talent mismatches. But on a bad team, you need consistent execution from veterans so that the volatility of young players doesn't wreck the whole operation. Those guys are feast or famine and don't play much of a defensive role, unlike Boyle, Lovejoy, Kulikov and Murray (yes, I know they are mostly defensemen), whose games are pretty well-defined. You know what you are getting and anything on top of that is a bonus. Look at a guy like Martinez and you can see how he can overproduce in a good situation while still giving you what he always has. I'm not saying go out and get Nick Foligno but it wouldn't surprise me to see a guy similar to that help this team way more than you'd expect.

From a skill perspective, the tier above Gusev and Johansson is a top 6 borderline star player so I get why those trades are viewed favorably. I liked them at the time too considering the cost.

But whatever - we're hopefully through that period and you hope the lessons have been learned by some young guys becoming reliable players. 2019-20 was way worse for me as a fan - that season was over two periods in.

I basically agree with this and while I question trading for forward who was a glorified rental, Johansson played 29 games in 2017-18. (The previous four seasons? 80 games, 82 games, 74 games and 82 games.)

MOJO’S NIGHTMARE SEASON of PAIN:

Warm-ups before 10/28/17: UBI suffered in, uh, warm-ups. (1 game)

Next game back…
11/1/17: Concussion after crashing into boards in Vancouver. (13 games)

Back 12/1/17
5 games later…

12/9/17: Injured blocking a shot against the NYR. (4 games)

Back 12/21/17
14 games later…

1/23/18 Marchand takes him out for the rest of the regular season. (35 games)



He dragged his ass back on the ice for the last three playoff games starting in 4/16, with zero points.