GDT: Devils @ Rangers 7PM MSGSN MSG

[New Jerseys Devil]

Funny enough, Devils are playing a really good brand of playoff hockey this season. They will be a hard out no matter where they end up in the seeding.

Could it be the team needed to learn how to defend and sacrifice offensive position to defend? Before they could then focus back on offense from the new framework?

Plus the long road trip! The teams may have been stinky but not as much as the long flights there!!

Here's some interesting stats for you guys.

At the start of January the 23-24 Devils team was 19-14-2. By February they were 25-19-3. The team is now 25-15-4. If they lose to Tampa, Florida and Toronto, which is a real possibility, they are at the exact same place. And that was with "jack hughes injured, vanacek, daws and schmid as the goalies and lindy ruff as the coach."

They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win being a game where they also sucked but Marky stole it. Only 2 teams from those 6 are even in a playoff spot. Not only do they not look like a contender they don't even look like a playoff team. I don't know what's going but this looks like entirely different team before the holiday break.

I can't seriously be the only one mad, sad and scared around here.

Our schedule was easier last year up to this point; cant forget that part!

 

[Triumph]

i just think xgf is an imperfect stat, even if there is nothing better for it right now. it basically normalizes every shooter under the assumption that they have the same ability but that’s just not true. mercer’s breakaway was an expected goal, but he flat out sucks with them always trying to do the same deke and weak shot that never seems to fool a goalie and goes right into the pads. palat has plenty of expected goals but often times he lacks the presence of mind to slow down the puck and hit an open net. taking the extra second and picking a corner or open part of the net shows up on the stat sheet for xgf the same but is a wildly different quality of shot. were good at creating chances, there’s no doubt about that, but often times missing the instinct to bury them.

jacks xgf last year can be explained by playing through a shoulder injury (and potentially still not 100% by the start of the year), but i’d argue he has a good shot normally and could exceed his xgf regularly

Mercer's breakaway is not an 'expected goal', nobody's is. It's a high-value shot, and it's going to be underpriced by xG because of how xG works, but nobody scores on every breakaway. FWIW, Mercer is around +3.5 in his career in 5v5 goals versus expected. Palat is basically at par for his career. I don't really think either guy is a huge issue right now with finishing. It is true that the Devils don't really have a guy who consistently shoots above average - Ovechkin has had multiple seasons where he's been 10 goals above xG, Stamkos too, and the Devils don't have anyone like that - but they don't really have any laggards either.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Only way Timo makes sense there is if you rip off Bratt from the half boards because you need Timo in a one timer shooting position at all times, Bratt's been the best forward this year overall so you can't do that, lol. Timo could carry PP2 in that spot. PP1 is probably locked with regards to the forwards.



Could just be a result of the PP not scoring but it feels like he hasn't been looked at the same in that situation. The argument for Luke on it is the entires and in zone movement too, a lot of the Rangers strategy last night was baiting Jack to go 1v4 and it worked a few entries which were dead on arrival.

Up until last night we actually have not had a lot of power play chances in recent games. So rust and fatigue also may have had something to do with it.

As other teams are concentrating on Jack, an obvious counter is for us to utilize the bumper more effectively. To move the puck low and then quickly into the slot. Nico then becomes the preferred shooter.

Because he’s a lefty, that means getting him those shots either by way of feeds from Jack or from Noesen. Alternatively we can find a right hand bumper and try feeding the play from the right side.

I would argue that the three out of the four last points we’ve taken are the toughest and gutsiest we’ve earned all year. This has been serious pressure - intense - the guys have really had to grind because nothing’s been coming easily. I’m very encouraged by the toughness they are showing in fighting through this.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Here's some interesting stats for you guys.

At the start of January the 23-24 Devils team was 19-14-2. By February they were 25-19-3. The team is now 25-15-4. If they lose to Tampa, Florida and Toronto, which is a real possibility, they are at the exact same place. And that was with "jack hughes injured, vanacek, daws and schmid as the goalies and lindy ruff as the coach."

They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win being a game where they also sucked but Marky stole it. Only 2 teams from those 6 are even in a playoff spot. Not only do they not look like a contender they don't even look like a playoff team. I don't know what's going but this looks like entirely different team before the holiday break.

I can't seriously be the only one mad, sad and scared around here.

and if they lose every game the rest of the way, they will be the worst team in the league!!!

why do you guys do this kinda stuff? It's really weird.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Here's some interesting stats for you guys.

At the start of January the 23-24 Devils team was 19-14-2. By February they were 25-19-3. The team is now 25-15-4. If they lose to Tampa, Florida and Toronto, which is a real possibility, they are at the exact same place. And that was with "jack hughes injured, vanacek, daws and schmid as the goalies and lindy ruff as the coach."

They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win being a game where they also sucked but Marky stole it. Only 2 teams from those 6 are even in a playoff spot. Not only do they not look like a contender they don't even look like a playoff team. I don't know what's going but this looks like entirely different team before the holiday break.

I can't seriously be the only one mad, sad and scared around here.

Overall I'm not mad, sad or scared because of what you said, "before the holiday break." It's only been a few weeks since then. I doubt that team before the break is just gone entirely. It's a bad rut right now but I see no reason to believe they can't pull themselves out of it.

What I am annoyed at is how inconsistent this team is and how they can't string together even a medium sized run of wins. Not winning 4 straight in however long it's been is a bit ridiculous.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Those are great

Currently enjoying a black n white. Hard shell with a soft inside, perfect

View attachment 958940

All about the lebkuchen for me man.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Here's some interesting stats for you guys.

At the start of January the 23-24 Devils team was 19-14-2. By February they were 25-19-3. The team is now 25-15-4. If they lose to Tampa, Florida and Toronto, which is a real possibility, they are at the exact same place. And that was with "jack hughes injured, vanacek, daws and schmid as the goalies and lindy ruff as the coach."

They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win being a game where they also sucked but Marky stole it. Only 2 teams from those 6 are even in a playoff spot. Not only do they not look like a contender they don't even look like a playoff team. I don't know what's going but this looks like entirely different team before the holiday break.

I can't seriously be the only one mad, sad and scared around here.

Don’t really know what the point of this is. Seems like a really dumb exercise. But yeah, they’re screwed if they lose every game man, I’m so worried.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Here's some interesting stats for you guys.

At the start of January the 23-24 Devils team was 19-14-2. By February they were 25-19-3. The team is now 25-15-4. If they lose to Tampa, Florida and Toronto, which is a real possibility, they are at the exact same place. And that was with "jack hughes injured, vanacek, daws and schmid as the goalies and lindy ruff as the coach."

They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win being a game where they also sucked but Marky stole it. Only 2 teams from those 6 are even in a playoff spot. Not only do they not look like a contender they don't even look like a playoff team. I don't know what's going but this looks like entirely different team before the holiday break.

I can't seriously be the only one mad, sad and scared around here.

This is not the same team as it was last year, as you just mentioned. So concerning ourselves with what took place last year with a different coach, different structure and different roster is simply worrying for the sake of it.

Every single team typically experiences a valley over a long season. Somehow this 6 game stretch has now trumped the 2 months of excellent play beforehand. It's what makes the discourse from the last few days comical to read. We have a coach who is more focused on the defensive side of the ice than our previous one, and has been vocal about the offense coming more regularly once that gets corrected again. We finally have a goalie who is capable of stealing games for us, and has done so. Something we haven't quite had for several years, aside from maybe Vitek's first half of 22-23 but I don't even think he had to steal many games that part of the year.

The point is that I have a tough time caring about what happened last year vs. this year. Were we 10 points up at any point on the last team out of the playoffs last year? The answer's no. Yes, there are things to correct and I fully expect them to do so. This team is playing, as a whole, a more mature game than they were under Lindy. And I don't expect them to shoot below average for the remainder of the year.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Team last year had a different coach
Team last year had a different starting goalie
Team last year had many of its best players injured

BUT OTHER THAN THAT!!!!

 

[Bleedred]

I have ptsd with this team. I can already see it, the Rangers climb back to top3 and the Devils plummet back to bottom without a 1st round draft pick. I was reading the discussion from a year ago and sounded awfully similar to this. "Just a tough stretch" "They're fine" "There's plenty of time" "Look at this stat.." And that was after the injuries, this team has no excuses, healthy, good goalie, good defence, good coach. They have to start playing better until it's too late, they are spiralling down right now. Another 2 goal performance by "one of the top scoring teams."

The Rangers climb back into the top 3? What? That’s where you really lost me.

The Rangers barely have a better record than us coming out of the break. And that’s only because we’ve barely won.

They’re 3-3-1 since the break.

The Rangers getting back into the top-3 in the Metro right now is some real Devils Dominion energy.

 

[Mgd31]

We are basically a game or game in half within Carolina, Toronto, Florida. 3 of the top 4 teams in the East.

I am good right now.

I would really like to beat Tampa on Saturday though. We have lost 5 straight against them and 9 of 10.

 

[NJDevs26]

Here's some interesting stats for you guys.

At the start of January the 23-24 Devils team was 19-14-2. By February they were 25-19-3. The team is now 25-15-4. If they lose to Tampa, Florida and Toronto, which is a real possibility, they are at the exact same place. And that was with "jack hughes injured, vanacek, daws and schmid as the goalies and lindy ruff as the coach."

They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win being a game where they also sucked but Marky stole it. Only 2 teams from those 6 are even in a playoff spot. Not only do they not look like a contender they don't even look like a playoff team. I don't know what's going but this looks like entirely different team before the holiday break.

I can't seriously be the only one mad, sad and scared around here.

Mad I’m right there with you, but we aren’t anywhere near actual sad and scared territory yet. It’ll get there if we haven’t straightened out by the deadline and are now in a death struggle for the playoffs but it’s not that bad yet.

 

[Better Call Sal]

We are basically a game or game in half within Carolina, Toronto, Florida. 3 of the top 4 teams in the East.

I am good right now.

I would really like to beat Tampa on Saturday though. We have lost 5 straight against them and 9 of 10.

Yes, that's a game I want bad. They effectively have embarrassed us in both showings this year so far. I want to really take it to them.

They've been equal with us over the last couple of weeks, also having lost to Anaheim and San Jose on a west coast road trip. They are coming off 2 straight Ws, one doing us a favor beating Carolina.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Rempe coming off a suspension was probably not going to do anything stupid tonight and yet MacDermid comes into the lineup. He did have a decent scoring chance or so but for all the good Keefe has done, he has had his quirks when it comes to lineup decisions. If our bottom 6 is struggling to score than MacDermid should not be on the ice at all unless he is skating in warmups as a healthy scratch. We have guys like Kovacevic or Noesen who can drop the mitts with that scrub Rempe.

Either way this was a frustrating loss but atleast they snagged a point. Jack was all over the ice tonight doing his thing but unfortunately he had some bad turnovers and cost them the game. They have been struggling in the 3rd period latley whuvu wasnt the case pretty much all season. It's kind of crazy how they are 1-4 in overtime this year when it has been their bread and butter the last few seasons....

I can't imagine people worrying about MacDermid in the lineup against the Rangers and Rempe. This is the game I want him in there for sure

Mac could be in every game from here on out and not be responsible for as many 2-on-0s and breakaways as Jack was in one period. Seriously. The list of people responsible for the loss has one name last night. If not for Markstrom bailing, Jack lost that game 3x for us before OT

 

[AfroThunder396]

Here's some interesting stats for you guys.

At the start of January the 23-24 Devils team was 19-14-2. By February they were 25-19-3. The team is now 25-15-4. If they lose to Tampa, Florida and Toronto, which is a real possibility, they are at the exact same place. And that was with "jack hughes injured, vanacek, daws and schmid as the goalies and lindy ruff as the coach."

They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win being a game where they also sucked but Marky stole it. Only 2 teams from those 6 are even in a playoff spot. Not only do they not look like a contender they don't even look like a playoff team. I don't know what's going but this looks like entirely different team before the holiday break.

I can't seriously be the only one mad, sad and scared around here.

Last year at 44 games we were:

49 points
.557 P%
T-18th in the league
T-10th in the East
T-5th in the Metro
153 goals against (27th)

This year at 44 games we are:
54 points
.614 P%
6th in the league
3rd in the East
2nd in the Metro
112 goals against (7th)

The fact that we're still 6th in the league in points after losing 5 of 6 is pretty astonishing. Other teams are going to go on losing streaks too (some others already are).

 

[Bleedred]

I don't want MacDermid in there, but let's be serious, they weren't NOT gonna play him last night if Rempe was available. He probably would have sat this one out if Rempe were still suspended or in the minors.

I wish MacDermid wasn't a thing, but we all should have known he was gonna be in there last night.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Or they do what should've been done in the first place, you go for their stars if they try to punk one of yours. Getting a buffoon in MacD does literally nothing, we've seen Devils stars get rag dolled with him here. Keefe is the last coach who should be playing these games considering what Boston did to him in Toronto and he has no true affiliation with the Rempe garbage from last year.

I can remember plenty of games with guys getting rag dolled without him, but alot fewer this year with him in the lineup.

There was almost no buffoonery this game. Trochek alone usually boards and slew foots the of our guys. I didn't see any pissy shit from any of the usual characters.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I don't want MacDermid in there, but let's be serious, they weren't NOT gonna play him last night if Rempe was available. He probably would have sat this one out if Rempe were still suspended or in the minors.

I wish MacDermid wasn't a thing, but we all should have known he was gonna be in there last night.

I'm so happy MacDermid is a thing. I wish Tom Wilson or equivalent was a thing, but this team has been so paper soft for so long. Your previous only option was last year Smith on D, and broken jaw Bastian, and I'm so happy that Kovacevic and Siegs can seemingly handle things.

I was so surprised that Cotter has had only one fight in his life but adding Noesen gets us closer.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Marky had the right take - stay out of the box and we won. Rangers have been reliant on PP goals forever now to stay relevant. We never learn and look who took the penalties. And our PP has cratered since Thanksgiving or so. The league can take off the game mgt mandate to slow us down now thank you.

 

[Devils731]

The Devils have won 75% of their points in their last 2 games.

If they keep that pace up then they will probably be the best team in the league. #cantarguewithmath

 

[guitarguyvic]

Mercer's breakaway is not an 'expected goal', nobody's is. It's a high-value shot, and it's going to be underpriced by xG because of how xG works, but nobody scores on every breakaway. FWIW, Mercer is around +3.5 in his career in 5v5 goals versus expected. Palat is basically at par for his career. I don't really think either guy is a huge issue right now with finishing. It is true that the Devils don't really have a guy who consistently shoots above average - Ovechkin has had multiple seasons where he's been 10 goals above xG, Stamkos too, and the Devils don't have anyone like that - but they don't really have any laggards either.

The fact that a breakaway chance doesn’t even count in the xg model should be more than enough to acknowledge that it can present an inaccurate picture of what really happened in the game.

 

[jkrdevil]

Team last year had a different coach
Team last year had a different starting goalie
Team last year had many of its best players injured

BUT OTHER THAN THAT!!!!

Last year’s team also had a key player arrested.

 

[jkrdevil]

Also, if you are going to make the comparison to last year you should note that this time last year the playoff cut line was on pace to be 91 points (it finished at 91 points). This year right now the cut line is 84 points!

So yes they are 5 points better than where they were last year at this point in terms of raw points. However, they are 12 points better in relation to the playoff bubble in comparison to last year through 44 games.

 

[Emperoreddy]

The powerplay is fine. On a whole they average 11.54 xGF per 60. The second closest is Dallas with 9.5.

Since the crappy results since Christmas, they are still at 11.17 xGF per 60 during this stretch.

The puck is just not going in. In general it is not.

Yeah i don't think there is need for huge wholesale adjustments.

The one thing is PKs seem to have adjusted where they play much more aggressive and press us harder which might be taking away some time and space.

Not sure what the tweak would be, but I'm sure there is some adjustment that can be made to combat that.

But a lot of it is just the puck not going in, which will eventually change

 

[Emperoreddy]

I get being annoyed by losing because losing isn't fun.

But the chicken little stuff is really over the top