GDT: Devils @ Rangers 7PM MSGSN MSG

[Triumph]

i just want to complain about the team playing like ass lately without being worried that they’ll drop out of the playoffs.

the teams on the bubble really are dogshit, we are clearly a step above them. but it’s frustrating to get a taste of how good this team could be and then see this shitty display over the last week and a half, losing to crappy teams and needing goalie heroics to eke out points. plus going from one of the best stretches of defensive performance in franchise history to what we’ve seen the last couple games.

hopefully they work through it, and if it takes some time hopefully they can at least rack up loser points or undeserved wins until it clicks again.

but the bottom 6 and lack of 5v5 performance is mildly concerning. xgf isn’t quite as useful of a stat if the team is just collectively bad at finishing. i don’t like hand waving that away and crying luck because finishing is a skill and it’s definitely lacking here

What evidence is there that the team is bad at finishing - that the collection of players they have shoots worse than their xG? I don't see a lot of evidence for that - the Devils don't have a lot of chuckers. I think of Timo as maybe being one but his xG versus career 5v5 goals is pretty close - he's around -12 for his career, with 3 of that in his rookie season and nearly 3 of that happening this season.

Nathan Bastian is -5 in goals scored versus xG in his career before this season. Not that surprising, he's a 4th line plugger who gets a lot of chances from in tight that aren't that great. Still, that amounts to 1 goal a season. He's -2.8 so far this season.

Hughes's career is wild -

19-20: -6.6
20-21: +0.4
21-22: +3.0
22-23: +6.7
23-24: -3.7
24-25: -1.7

Haula consistently outscored his xG numbers until he came to NJ. Not entirely sure why that changed, maybe he'd be evidence point 1, but I'm not really seeing it.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Happy that Jack took some public ownership to the dismal plays he was apart of that lead to some bad breaks for the team in that game.

Getting some creds and seeing more of that maturity. It seasons back, the media wouldn't even approach him, or he wouldn't be available to comment.

Good gut check.

 

[Triumph]

Yeah, he’s played one game and openly talked about having to change the way he plays.

View attachment 959006

Yeah he probably wont be waived, we’ll continue to waste that money for no reason. Maybe he can match Eric Boulton’s 51 game pointless streak if we keep him in the lineup?

Talk is cheap. Rempe was credited with 4 hits last night. I don't think he was out of line on any of them, but he's still going to play physical.

I don't think MacDermid will come close to Boulton's pointless streak or play that many games. He's here for games like last night.

 

[Whaddagoal]

What can you do with something like that…he doesn’t play him with Rempe in the lineup he gets first guessed, then if Rempe does do something Keefe gets destroyed for not putting the ‘deterrent’ in, which is half the reason he got a three year deal to begin with lol

It's a bit of a catch-22. For all we know if we hadnt played MacDermid, maybe Rempe would have towed the line less and be on the edge

Although I think with Trouba gone, and Rempe on thin ice with the league, probably he would have stayed more amicable which is what we saw last night. Rangers have bigger problems than trying to injure the devils, not going to help their cause because they closer than recently prior to a rebuild.

But. Ya never know. I think playing Mac last night was fine. He did take a dumb penalty, but he had just about as many chances as the other guys who didn't do anything with them either.

 

[MadDevil]

Need to yank Dougie off for Luke at this point. If they're not even looking for Dougie's shot then he's utterly pointless there. Luke will help with the entries which it looks like have stalled a bit with teams baiting Jack to go 1v4 on the powerplay in that situation.

It's too early in the morning because I definitely read that first part wrong.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

It's too early in the morning because I definitely read that first part wrong.

, I did a double take before I hit post too.

 

[I Hate Tie DOMI]

I hate the look of the powerplay now. It seems to be just pass to Jack and skate around the zone for awhile and maybe take a shot on net that gets blocked or lose control of the puck in the corner for the easy clear.

Putting Luke on PP1 will just make that problem worse. He is always trying to pass to Jack and is not a threat to take a shot like Hamilton is, but for some reason Hamilton has stopped attempting point shot slap shots too. Maybe he is just getting the puck in bad position or the defenders are cheating toward him knowing that he is a threat to shoot to block his shot, but I'm just annoyed with how its going and something needs to change with the pass to Jack mentality all the time.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

What else happened?

******* notre dame won.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I hate the look of the powerplay now. It seems to be just pass to Jack and skate around the zone for awhile and maybe take a shot on net that gets blocked or lose control of the puck in the corner for the easy clear.

Putting Luke on PP1 will just make that problem worse. He is always trying to pass to Jack and is not a threat to take a shot like Hamilton is, but for some reason Hamilton has stopped attempting point shot slap shots too. Maybe he is just getting the puck in bad position or the defenders are cheating toward him knowing that he is a threat to shoot to block his shot, but I'm just annoyed with how its going and something needs to change with the pass to Jack mentality all the time.

I mean that's exactly what they were doing when the Devils were on the heater on the powerplay. Nothing has changed schematically really with what the Devils are doing, the other teams in the league have caught up. They're daring Jack to solo effort beat them, he'll do it on occasion from sheer skill/will power but it's not a recipe for success. And I disagree, Luke's ability to rover from the point is miles better than Dougie and thus would open way more lanes for other guys on the unit. The movement was the big key of this team's powerplay being disgusting early on. Dougie is a statue and like you and I have said, he's virtually pointless now if he's not shooting

******* notre dame won.

Texas or OSU are gonna demolish them in the title game, I wouldn't worry lol

 

[Triumph]

Dougie is still shooting plenty on the power play. He's also really, really good at holding the line. I see no reason to change PP1.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I'll forever be on the "I wish they'd give Timo another chance on PP1" train, but I recognize it's not realistic. Noesen brings an element to that unit that no one else can, and frankly, PP2 had a few strong looks on one of the opportunities last night. Maybe they deserve a bit more time out there than they've been getting. Just to keep PP1 honest.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'll forever be on the "I wish they'd give Timo another chance on PP1" train, but I recognize it's not realistic. Noesen brings an element to that unit that no one else can, and frankly, PP2 had a few strong looks on one of the opportunities last night. Maybe they deserve a bit more time out there than they've been getting. Just to keep PP1 honest.

Only way Timo makes sense there is if you rip off Bratt from the half boards because you need Timo in a one timer shooting position at all times, Bratt's been the best forward this year overall so you can't do that, lol. Timo could carry PP2 in that spot. PP1 is probably locked with regards to the forwards.

Dougie is still shooting plenty on the power play. He's also really, really good at holding the line. I see no reason to change PP1.

Could just be a result of the PP not scoring but it feels like he hasn't been looked at the same in that situation. The argument for Luke on it is the entires and in zone movement too, a lot of the Rangers strategy last night was baiting Jack to go 1v4 and it worked a few entries which were dead on arrival.

 

[Mgd31]

The powerplay is fine. On a whole they average 11.54 xGF per 60. The second closest is Dallas with 9.5.

Since the crappy results since Christmas, they are still at 11.17 xGF per 60 during this stretch.

The puck is just not going in. In general it is not.

 

[None Shall Pass]

The Rangers scored their regulation goals on the PP. Our PK has a better night and this game ends in a close win. The Rangers have been PP merchants for the past few years. These things happen. Not that serious.

 

[Better Call Sal]

The Rangers scored their regulation goals on the PP. Our PK has a better night and this game ends in a close win. The Rangers have been PP merchants for the past few years. These things happen. Not that serious.

And honestly, they were two perfect bounces/breaks that went their way. People like to think it's excuse making, but one ricochets in off Kovacevic's stick and the other one is a rebound that lands perfectly on Panarin's tape. I don't even think the PK positioning was bad, just one of those nights like you said.

 

[Triumph]

Could just be a result of the PP not scoring but it feels like he hasn't been looked at the same in that situation. The argument for Luke on it is the entires and in zone movement too, a lot of the Rangers strategy last night was baiting Jack to go 1v4 and it worked a few entries which were dead on arrival.

This is a Jack problem. The top unit needs absolutely no help with zone entries, if you can't enter the zone with Jack and Bratt, you just can't enter the zone.

Hamilton is a shooter of last resort on the PP but he's still around his career average in shots/60 on the PP. He shouldn't be featured and he isn't.

 

[Whaddagoal]

I would be okay to try Timo back on PP1 for a few games (even in place of Noesen. It sounds heretical but it gives a different look for a little while at least).

I'm overall concerned less about the PP, but more how fatigued all the skaters look ES and lack of production.

Nico looks slower than us early season form, Timo too, in fact Timo looks sluggish injured-ish.

Don't know if it's just road fatigue, but there are a lot of games upcoming. No forward depth (Haula injured), no 4th line production of any sort. You put in Tatar for MacDermid and nothing changes. You put in Dowling for 3rd line, not much changes. Mercer still can't score any goal outside of crease work. Everyone is missing shots wide in clear cut chances in the slot area or the near circle area)

You can go down the roster and it's been a major theme. Timo, Dougie, Kovacevic, etc had some glorious chances. Bratt had some for number of games before until he broke his drought. Can they work on their shot??

The stats show we have so many 10+ goal scorers but I feel we can have more production with the amount of high quality chances we get per game.

 

[ninetyeight]

I have ptsd with this team. I can already see it, the Rangers climb back to top3 and the Devils plummet back to bottom without a 1st round draft pick. I was reading the discussion from a year ago and sounded awfully similar to this. "Just a tough stretch" "They're fine" "There's plenty of time" "Look at this stat.." And that was after the injuries, this team has no excuses, healthy, good goalie, good defence, good coach. They have to start playing better until it's too late, they are spiralling down right now. Another 2 goal performance by "one of the top scoring teams."

 

[Call Me Al]

I have ptsd with this team. I can already see it, the Rangers climb back to top3 and the Devils plummet back to bottom without a 1st round draft pick. I was reading the discussion from a year ago and sounded awfully similar to this. "Just a tough stretch" "They're fine" "There's plenty of time" "Look at this stat.." And that was after the injuries, this team has no excuses, healthy, good goalie, good defence, good coach. They have to start playing better until it's too late, they are spiralling down right now. Another 2 goal performance by "one of the top scoring teams."

jack hughes was injured, vanacek, daws and schmid were the goalies and lindy ruff was the coach. it’s not the same thing at all

 

[Call Me Al]

What evidence is there that the team is bad at finishing - that the collection of players they have shoots worse than their xG? I don't see a lot of evidence for that - the Devils don't have a lot of chuckers. I think of Timo as maybe being one but his xG versus career 5v5 goals is pretty close - he's around -12 for his career, with 3 of that in his rookie season and nearly 3 of that happening this season.

Nathan Bastian is -5 in goals scored versus xG in his career before this season. Not that surprising, he's a 4th line plugger who gets a lot of chances from in tight that aren't that great. Still, that amounts to 1 goal a season. He's -2.8 so far this season.

Hughes's career is wild -

19-20: -6.6
20-21: +0.4
21-22: +3.0
22-23: +6.7
23-24: -3.7
24-25: -1.7

Haula consistently outscored his xG numbers until he came to NJ. Not entirely sure why that changed, maybe he'd be evidence point 1, but I'm not really seeing it.

i just think xgf is an imperfect stat, even if there is nothing better for it right now. it basically normalizes every shooter under the assumption that they have the same ability but that’s just not true. mercer’s breakaway was an expected goal, but he flat out sucks with them always trying to do the same deke and weak shot that never seems to fool a goalie and goes right into the pads. palat has plenty of expected goals but often times he lacks the presence of mind to slow down the puck and hit an open net. taking the extra second and picking a corner or open part of the net shows up on the stat sheet for xgf the same but is a wildly different quality of shot. were good at creating chances, there’s no doubt about that, but often times missing the instinct to bury them.

jacks xgf last year can be explained by playing through a shoulder injury (and potentially still not 100% by the start of the year), but i’d argue he has a good shot normally and could exceed his xgf regularly

 

[ninetyeight]

jack hughes was injured, vanacek, daws and schmid were the goalies and lindy ruff was the coach. it’s not the same thing at all

Please re-read what I wrote. That's not what I wrote or meant. First of all it was after the injuries and I wasn't talking about the team but you fans.

 

[AfroThunder396]

This website update looks and runs like shit.

 

[Whaddagoal]

To continue from my last post, ironically, the few players that look like they have step in their game is Jack, Bratt, and even Palat. Palat was playing hard last night. All 3 look like they have good energy.

The rest of the team Nicos line and on down looked really fatigued. Hope it was just circumstantial but it is a concern as we hit the midpoint. Keefe's system is great but it requires heavy commitment high in all areas all game.

Nicos line during the road trip was playing some crazy minutes, and I'm not certain Noesen is used to playing that kind of grind for 82 against the top lines every game. Timo too, but you can argue he's done it in the past. noesen is typically more of a 3rd line type of player. He is also less noticeable 5v5 recently (and has toffoli-esque) foot speed.

I think maybe moving Mercer up to Nicos line again or flipping Tatar up to 3rd and moving Dowling back to 4th can work. Give Tatar some 3rd line minutes with some more skill guys and see if we can get production from anyone on 3rd line.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

This is a Jack problem. The top unit needs absolutely no help with zone entries, if you can't enter the zone with Jack and Bratt, you just can't enter the zone.

Hamilton is a shooter of last resort on the PP but he's still around his career average in shots/60 on the PP. He shouldn't be featured and he isn't.

That's partially true if Jack is simply just ignoring Bratt but there's no issue with adding another guy who can one man break out himself. The in zone movement that led to 32-33% PP clip is the argument for Luke than anything else.

 

[ninetyeight]

Here's some interesting stats for you guys.

At the start of January the 23-24 Devils team was 19-14-2. By February they were 25-19-3. The team is now 25-15-4. If they lose to Tampa, Florida and Toronto, which is a real possibility, they are at the exact same place. And that was with "jack hughes injured, vanacek, daws and schmid as the goalies and lindy ruff as the coach."

They have lost 5 of their last 6, with the only win being a game where they also sucked but Marky stole it. Only 2 teams from those 6 are even in a playoff spot. Not only do they not look like a contender they don't even look like a playoff team. I don't know what's going but this looks like entirely different team before the holiday break.

I can't seriously be the only one mad, sad and scared around here.