Prospect Info: Devils Picking 4th Overall, Part II

[Hisch13r]

If hypothetically Buffalo took Eklund or Beniers 1oa would you guys give Seattle #4 and NYI 1st to trade up for Power?

I don't want Power anyway

 

[RememberTheName]

If hypothetically Buffalo took Eklund or Beniers 1oa would you guys give Seattle #4 and NYI 1st to trade up for Power?

Not even close given that Power wouldn't even be BPA (in my eyes) at #4 let alone #2.

 

[MartyOwns]

If hypothetically Buffalo took Eklund or Beniers 1oa would you guys give Seattle #4 and NYI 1st to trade up for Power?

i probably do, although i'd like to get a 3rd out of them as well.

 

[longislanddevil]

I've said a ton -- on multiple threads -- that Clarke would be my pick for the Devils at #4 overall. Out of every defender in the 2021 class, Clarke has the best hands and the best passing vision, and there's not a close second. He's also possessing one of the best shots, and he's really improved defensively to the point where I'd say he's pretty good. He's elusive, extremely smart and competitive. Heck of a player.

But Hughes is still who I feel the Devils will pick, and I'm fine with it too. Luke's combination of speed/size/skill is undeniable, giving him just stratospheric upside. But he's also still pretty prone to turnovers, below average defensively and coming off a major injury. Conversely, we need to temper this with the fact that he's one of the youngest players in the entire draft, I think if he were a few days younger he'd be eligible for the 2022 draft. Luke Hughes is a huge talent with a ton of room to grow.

Eklund is a very safe pick -- he might lack the upside of a superstar scorer, but he's a high-IQ high-compete kid who checks every skill in the tool kit except size, which his high compete level more than makes up for. But I'm just not sure that the Devils -- especially needing defense more than forwards -- can pass up on the huge upside of a Clarke or Hughes for a more conservative pick like Eklund. I feel they will shoot for the moon with a potential franchise-caliber defenseman, and with Power certainly gone that pick comes down to Hughes vs. Clarke.

Again, I feel the Devils will take Hughes, and even though I'm a bit higher on Clarke, I understand the rationale and am fine with it.

I’m curious why you think the Devils will take Hughes over Clarke. The latter has better skills (today) in most facets of the game, sans skating. He also fills an organizational need at RD. All things considered equal (which I don’t even think they are), that should be a tiebreaker. Do you think Fitz will cave out of fear he antagonizes Jack and the sheer optics of not taking Luke? Or…do you believe the Devils scouts legitimately think Hughes is the better prospect?

 

[Emperoreddy]

If hypothetically Buffalo took Eklund or Beniers 1oa would you guys give Seattle #4 and NYI 1st to trade up for Power?

Nope. Keep the pick and draft Hughes

 

[Forge]

I'd be curious to see if there was appetite between Columbus and Seattle for a trade. I feel like Columbus could really like Edvinsson, they have three first round picks (including the last pick in the round), and I'm not sure how much value Seattle is losing by making that type of swap if Columbus really wanted someone

 

[Hisch13r]

I'd be curious to see if there was appetite between Columbus and Seattle for a trade. I feel like Columbus could really like Edvinsson, they have three first round picks (including the last pick in the round), and I'm not sure how much value Seattle is losing by making that type of swap if Columbus really wanted someone

I'd do it if I'm Seattle. I think you're likely sacrificing Beniers for Eklund but you also get another 1st

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Seattle simply needs to get either McTavish or Beniers from this draft. Their centers project to be atrocious based on what's leaked so far.

Don't think they're drafting with the 2021-22 season in mind.

Any improvement in the center position for this year would come either through trade or free agency.

That being said, hard to imagine Beniers isn't the Kraken pick given all the discussions but could see them going wing, defense or even Wallstedt if they thought that player had the highest upside for the future.

 

[StevenToddIves]

How much of Hughes deficiencies can you attribute to being one of the youngest players in this draft in your opinion. That is to say are people seeing a player slightly behind in the development curve compared to the rest of his class or are these real problems?

It's difficult to say. This is why teams often opt to pick safe players who require less projection. I'm optimistic with Luke Hughes, considering he is an NHL legacy. This is also where "intangibles" come into play. Players with high hockey IQs and compete levels are more likely, in my history of observation, to approach their "talent ceiling". I would say Hughes is good in both of these respects.

I am an optimist, so I envision Luke Hughes becoming a very productive offensive defenseman with some defensive qualms at the worst. I do give a bit more leeway to younger players, and players who have faced some adversity (injuries, bad teams) in their amateur careers.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thanks for the awesome response!

I love potential and I love big smooth skating offensive minded dman, so Luke wouldn’t be too bad of a pick if ever we do take him.

From what I saw, which isn’t anywhere close to the viewings you had of him, is that he tries to do a little too much on his own and is prone to turning the puck over… a lot. I think that he gets away with it 95% of the time because he’s such a great skater and can get back in the play with his long reach, when playing against 17 year olds. On the flip side, if he does that in the pros, he’ll get eaten alive by guys that can keep up and see him coming from a mile away.

The good thing is that time is on his side and he’ll be able to work on that for the next couple of years at Michigan.

I share some of your concerns but I will add this -- Hughes is an absolutely outstanding skater. Even in the pros, most players will not be able to "keep up". This is the big reason why he's a likely top 7 pick. I think sometimes we -- in the draft prognostication community -- undersell players who are not elite skaters, but there is no way to oversell players who are elite skaters. It is a constant advantage, and it boosts the remainder of a players tool kit more than any other singular physical tool.

Luke Hughes is, without a doubt, the best skater in the 2021 draft. This should be the top reason a team drafts him -- not because of his last name or who is brothers are.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m curious why you think the Devils will take Hughes over Clarke. The latter has better skills (today) in most facets of the game, sans skating. He also fills an organizational need at RD. All things considered equal (which I don’t even think they are), that should be a tiebreaker. Do you think Fitz will cave out of fear he antagonizes Jack and the sheer optics of not taking Luke? Or…do you believe the Devils scouts legitimately think Hughes is the better prospect?

I feel Clarke has been undersold by much of the scouting community, which on the whole puts too much stock in the superficial qualities of "what a player looks like". Clarke is not a strapping kid, and his skating looks weird. It's that simple. I think he falls out of the top 5 -- where he deserves to be picked -- and teams regret it for years. Meanwhile, a far inferior player like Simon Edvinsson -- not even in Clarke's league when they played in the same tournament -- will be picked ahead of Clarke because he looks more "manly", he's bigger and faster. But these two players are not even close -- Clarke is smarter and light years ahead of Edvinsson in terms of passing, shooting, puckhandling, awareness, etc. etc.

I remember ranking Adam Fox in the first round when his consensus ranking was in the the 3rd/4th round range. To me, Fox is very similar to Clarke in many ways. Clarke is bigger, and Fox is a better skater, but a lot of their skills, especially passing and puck-handling, can be considered comparable. Fox was utterly dismissed in his draft year for superficial reasons, and although the same has not happened to Clarke -- universally a top 10 pick -- it's just amazing to me that his on-ice excellence has not advanced his view in the general consensus.

That being said, Luke Hughes does offer huge upside, as well. We cannot forget that he is certainly the youngest player in the draft who will be taken in the first round, and his skating his far and away the best of any player in the class. His offensive skill set is likely the second best of any D in the draft after only Clarke, give or take Carson Lambos. Hughes' upside is huge, he's just not as safe as Clarke because he's so far away from what his potential is. With Hughes, the key is development -- if I'm drafting him, I'm giving him three years at the University of Michigan and not rushing him into the pros.

But I guess the answer is -- I have no idea what the Devils front office and scouting staff is thinking. So, although I would hope the Devils #4 overall pick would not be swayed by who is who's brother, I cannot say either way whether that will come into play.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'd be curious to see if there was appetite between Columbus and Seattle for a trade. I feel like Columbus could really like Edvinsson, they have three first round picks (including the last pick in the round), and I'm not sure how much value Seattle is losing by making that type of swap if Columbus really wanted someone

Columbus has a awfully thin prospect pool and desperately needs prospects -- both quantity and quality. There's no way they give up picks for a player who should fall to them anyway at #5. I have my qualms with Jarmo Kekkalainen, but he has no history of this type of foolhardy move.

 

[Buck Dancer]

I share some of your concerns but I will add this -- Hughes is an absolutely outstanding skater. Even in the pros, most players will not be able to "keep up". This is the big reason why he's a likely top 7 pick. I think sometimes we -- in the draft prognostication community -- undersell players who are not elite skaters, but there is no way to oversell players who are elite skaters. It is a constant advantage, and it boosts the remainder of a players tool kit more than any other singular physical tool.

Luke Hughes is, without a doubt, the best skater in the 2021 draft. This should be the top reason a team drafts him -- not because of his last name or who is brothers are.

I like smooth skating players, especially dmen but I’m wary of players that have that skill as their main tool. We’ve seen guys bust that can skate like the wind and we’ve seen guys turn into all stars who have a very average first step.

My main criteria, as simple as it is, comes down to "can the guy play hockey and does he understand the game". Hockey IQ is the main quality I’m looking for when drafting a teenager because he’ll be able to analyze a situation whether it’s in juniors or the pros.

I understand Luke is a special talent but I would take Clarke over Hughes and even if he’s not a dman, which we desperately need, Eklund as well.

 

[Lou is God]

I like smooth skating players, especially dmen but I’m wary of players that have that skill as their main tool. We’ve seen guys bust that can skate like the wind and we’ve seen guys turn into all stars who have a very average first step.

My main criteria, as simple as it is, comes down to "can the guy play hockey and does he understand the game". Hockey IQ is the main quality I’m looking for when drafting a teenager because he’ll be able to analyze a situation whether it’s in juniors or the pros.

I understand Luke is a special talent but I would take Clarke over Hughes and even if he’s not a dman, which we desperately need, Eklund as well.

Sorry man, but that doesn't make much sense, you're talking like that's his only gift, it's not, the kid can almost do it all when it comes to skills, just not skating.

 

[Buck Dancer]

Sorry man, but that doesn't make much sense, you're talking like that's his only gift, it's not, the kid can almost do it all when it comes to skills, just not skating.

I don’t see it in that way, sorry. Skating is his best asset and he does have tremendous skills but if he had everything else + his current skating, he would be a lock for the #1 pick over Powers, which he isn’t.

As good as he is, he’s not even a lock to be the 3rd or 4th best dman in his draft class.

 

[Lou is God]

I don’t see it in that way, sorry. Skating is his best asset and he does have tremendous skills but if he had everything else + his current skating, he would be a lock for the #1 pick over Powers, which he isn’t.

As good as he is, he’s not even a lock to be the 3rd or 4th best dman in his draft class.

What is everything else? And he is a lock to be taken in the top four defensemen in the draft, name me the four defensemen that are going to be taken ahead of him? And top of that you rarely see any projected boards that have three taken ahead of him. And on top of THAT, I would not form my judgement on how people project a player, go back the last 20 drafts and see how many times the best player in a year was NOT the best player taken first overall.

 

[Lou is God]

@Devils son but that's not saying you can't be right about Hughes, this is a draft where no player is a sure thing (most especially Hughes), they all have potential to underwhelm us, I'm just questioning your logic coming to this conclusion.

 

[Blackjack]

If we take Hughes that will make it 3 LD in the first round of the last four years. Not saying we shouldn't, it just occurred to me and I thought it was interesting.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

If we take Hughes that will make it 3 LD in the first round of the last four years. Not saying we shouldn't, it just occurred to me and I thought it was interesting.

Our defensive pipeline

 

[TBF1972]

I love Pytlik -- he has upside as a two-way, NHL 3C with size and some underrated offensive skill. I would say Edwards and Baumgartner are not even in the same stratosphere as Pytlik as a prospect. My big hope for Edwards and Baumgartner is that they can develop enough to become AHL guys who can be adept enough to call up in case of injury at the pro level.

baumgartner won't play in the ahl, if there is no reasonable hope for him to get to the nhl. he makes better money in the national league (switzerland).

 

[JK3]

The thing about Hughes that bothers me is he just seems uninterested in the dzone. Seems like his only defensive play is the poke check and if you get by him he just coasts back into the play. He’s not very aggressive at all retrieving pucks and I don’t think he uses his size or body well at all to separate guys from the puck.

I’m not going to question his offensive instincts and drive when he has the puck but these type of dmen drive me crazy. I like a little more well rounded type of player back there but I guess if he was that he’d be a lock for 1OA.

He’s so young and hopefully they can work with him on using his size and speed to close guys off, be a little more aggressive in front and in the corners and round out his game a bit. With his skating and skill I’d settle for him just being serviceable back there.

 

[Buck Dancer]

@Devils son but that's not saying you can't be right about Hughes, this is a draft where no player is a sure thing (most especially Hughes), they all have potential to underwhelm us, I'm just questioning your logic coming to this conclusion.

Well I’ve said in a previous post that I value hockey IQ more so then any other quality and Hughes isn’t ranked in my top #5 because of that. He skates really well and has a lot of other superb qualities, but when people talk about his elite skating first and foremost, it’s just not the main quality I want to hear from a kid I’m scouting and about to pick in the top #5.

 

[Lou is God]

The thing about Hughes that bothers me is he just seems uninterested in the dzone. Seems like his only defensive play is the poke check and if you get by him he just coasts back into the play. He’s not very aggressive at all retrieving pucks and I don’t think he uses his size or body well at all to separate guys from the puck.

I’m not going to question his offensive instincts and drive when he has the puck but these type of dmen drive me crazy. I like a little more well rounded type of player back there but I guess if he was that he’d be a lock for 1OA.

He’s so young and hopefully they can work with him on using his size and speed to close guys off, be a little more aggressive in front and in the corners and round out his game a bit. With his skating and skill I’d settle for him just being serviceable back there.

That's the one thing I keep hearing too, hopefully it's just youth and something that can be addressed, many coaches in any sport will tell you that just about anyone can play defense if they commit to it. It's all about effort.

 

[JK3]

That's the one thing I keep hearing too, hopefully it's just youth and something that can be addressed, many coaches in any sport will tell you that just about anyone can play defense if they commit to it. It's all about effort.

You can’t teach size, skill and skating for the most part and he’s got loads of it so the sky’s the limit. I’m sure they’ll work on these issues at Michigan.

 

[goonybird]

I want Luke Hughes this year, alternate universe Jack Hughes next year, and Quinn Hughes the year after that.