GDT: Devils @ Kings - 6:00 PM - MSG

[Hisch13r]

The bottom 6 isn't the only problem.

Yes it is the only real problem.

 

[Aurinko]

Were Luke-Pesce as bad as the analytics suggest?

They had to adjust the chart to fit in how shit they were.

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If you are -3 after a 3-0 game, it's a fair question to ask. Expected values aside.

 

[Emperoreddy]

The bottom 6 isn't the only problem.

It pretty much is. The top 6 is fine, just in a shooting slump a bit. D is more then fine. Goaltending is fine.

 

[Hisch13r]

If the Devils come back and beat the Sharks, no one will care about the Columbus/Carolina/Anaheim/LA losses in the long run but the bottom six is a really big issue that needs to be addressed.

Cotter- 2 goals in 29 games.
Haula- 0 points in 17 games.
Tatar- 3 goals in 35 games.
Bastian/Dowling/MacDermid/Lazar- 5 goals combined on the season.

Mercer and Palat have playing better recently but they were on this list very recently too.

Wrong. I'll definitely care about those losses because it will likely hold them back from winning the division and could result in Carolina getting home ice.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Literally every NHL team goes through stretches like this. Last year, the Panthers had a 1-4 stretch, another 4 game losing streak, and a 3-9 stretch during the season. Edmonton started last season like 2-10. Those two teams made the Finals.



Its frustrating, but we don't need to make every game or two be a diatribe on the whole season. All that matters is

1) our top players need to stay healthy

and

2) we add some reinforcements at the deadline.

The offensive struggles are not a small stretch of games thing. All season they have gone through large lengths of time where they can’t score and make average goalies look great. They have a lot of games where they have run up the score too which probably pulls up their average and masks this.

And yeah this has been during a mostly healthy season. Heaven help this team if even a single top six guy goes down.

 

[Mgd31]

If the Devils come back and beat the Sharks, no one will care about the Columbus/Carolina/Anaheim/LA losses in the long run but the bottom six is a really big issue that needs to be addressed.

Cotter- 2 goals in 29 games.
Haula- 0 points in 17 games.
Tatar- 3 goals in 35 games.
Bastian/Dowling/MacDermid/Lazar- 5 goals combined on the season.

Mercer and Palat have playing better recently but they were on this list very recently too.

Haula has basically been out on a public skate since the end of October

 

[JrFischer54]

NHL with an offense problem goes out of their way to eliminate goals. Goaltender interference should be so clear cut that if called a penalty should result in it.

Will never understand how that ticky tack stuff gets called after a review but not live.

 

[Hisch13r]

If you are -3 after a 3-0 game, it's a fair question to ask. Expected values aside.

-2. f*** getting minuses for ENGs.

 

[Emperoreddy]

The offensive struggles are not a small stretch of games thing. All season they have gone through large lengths of time where they can’t score and make average goalies look great. They have a lot of games where they have run up the score too which probably pulls up their average and masks this.

And yeah this has been during a mostly healthy season. Heaven help this team if even a single top six guy goes down.

The offensive stats and metrics don't back this up.

Everything shows this is a good offensive team with a finishing problem which is in part a lack of depth scoring and in part just poor luck.

 

[Hisch13r]

It pretty much is. The top 6 is fine, just in a shooting slump a bit. D is more then fine. Goaltending is fine.

Nico hasn't been good enough offensively since the bender start and both he and Jack still isn't producing enough at 5v5 but those are not really problems I worry about.

 

[njdevil26]

It pretty much is. The top 6 is fine, just in a shooting slump a bit. D is more then fine. Goaltending is fine.

Agreed

Getting shut out 6 times in the first half of the season is a glaring stat that shows if the big boys (Jack-Timo-Nico-Jesper) aren't on the score sheet the team has no shot.

 

[Hisch13r]

The offensive stats and metrics don't back this up.

Everything shows this is a good offensive team with a finishing problem which is in part a lack of depth scoring and in part just poor luck.

I mean also in part because they're bad finishers. You can't just say it's bad luck when they finish well below expected every single year. They're bad finishers and shouldn't be expected to finish in line with the xG numbers.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Nico hasn't been good enough offensively since the bender start and both he and Jack still isn't producing enough at 5v5 but those are not really problems I worry about.

Not something that concerns me. I know what both players are capable of. They will sort that out.

 

[guitarguyvic]

The offensive stats and metrics don't back this up.

Everything shows this is a good offensive team with a finishing problem which is in part a lack of depth scoring and in part just poor luck.

I don’t think the stats are telling the whole story here. They have had games where they pot a lot and that pulls up the average. Very sink or swim production…again this doesn’t bode well for winning a division or going far in the playoffs…I’d rather see a slightly lower average but more consistency. GF averages also don’t necessarily paint a clear picture for finishing…the devils generate a lot of chances in most games so for them to go such long stretches without pulling through is a red flag. This also goes back to last season. They also have statistically been sort of whatever 5v5. It’s happening while a guy like Stefan Noesen is way overproducing his career average and we’ve had no injuries to the top six. What happens when he cools down or one of those top guys is out for some time?

I’m not saying this is a bad team, I’m just saying that these are warning signs as far as our contender status goes.

 

[Mgd31]

Nico hasn't been good enough offensively since the bender start and both he and Jack still isn't producing enough at 5v5 but those are not really problems I worry about.

You know I hadn’t really been paying attention but I didn’t realize they were both under 2 points per 60 5 on 5. Bratt is at 2.66 which is head and shoulders above everyone else.

 

[DerekDevils30]

I mean also in part because they're bad finishers. You can't just say it's bad luck when they finish well below expected every single year. They're bad finishers and shouldn't be expected to finish in line with the xG numbers.

The lack of a true sniper in the top 6 is certainly noticeable at times. We have plenty of play drivers there and guys who can get greasy goals in Meier and Noesen and sometimes Palat. Just don’t have that blow your doors off sniper. But they can make due with that if you can get a 3rd line who can chip in goals every other game or so.

 

[JrFischer54]

If a play drives the net and goalie makes a save but runs into him it’s a penalty but he didn’t interfere with the goalie making the save. If the same play happens and the puck goes in there isn’t a penalty called?

 

[Emperoreddy]

I'm annoyed over this for divisional placement reasons but that's about it.

Guys will figure it out and Fitz is going to bring in reinforcements.

 

[Hisch13r]

You know I hadn’t really been paying attention but I didn’t realize they were both under 2 points per 60 5 on 5. Bratt is at 2.66 which is head and shoulders above everyone else.

Yeah I looked after this game and saw that too. I pointed out like a a month and a half ago that the stars weren't really up to the level they should be at 5v5 and it's part of the reason the team wasn't scoring enough at 5v5. I figured Jack would've shot up since that was around the time he started to catch fire but he's still down where he's been all year. Nico I'm not surprised is still there. He needs to give you more offensively.

 

[Mgd31]

Yeah I looked after this game and saw that too. I pointed out like a a month and a half ago that the stars weren't really up to the level they should be at 5v5 and it's part of the reason the team wasn't scoring enough at 5v5. I figured Jack would've shot up since that was around the time he started to catch fire but he's still down where he's been all year. Nico I'm not surprised is still there. He needs to give you more offensively.

Yea agreed on Nico. His GF% at 61 is great but I expect a little more points from him.

Timo is at 65% which is incredible. Maybe I have been a little too harsh on him for lack of production especially when he doesn’t get much PP time.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Looking back over the game, I wonder whether Pesce couldn’t have played that high lob better on the first goal against. That goal very much changed the way the game was played. He seemed to be in position on the forward, but played neither the puck nor the man and then the guy was by him, like two strides in front and we were chasing.

Pesce was on for both of their quick strike scores tonight I believe.

 

[Hisch13r]

The lack of a true sniper in the top 6 is certainly noticeable at times. We have plenty of play drivers there and guys who can get greasy goals in Meier and Noesen and sometimes Palat. Just don’t have that blow your doors off sniper. But they can make due with that if you can get a 3rd line who can chip in goals every other game or so.

And I'm honestly fine without that "true sniper" because generally those types end up giving back a lot of what they get you anyway and at best I think you're looking at a marginal upgrade over what the top 6 is currently giving you. I've said it a lot but I wish we could just clone Noesen. I want him so badly on both of the top 6 lines. Either that or a time machine to get the Palat of 10 years ago.

While sure it'd be nice for the top 6 to be finishing better it's hard to ask for more than they're giving you. Palat-Jack-Bratt are controlling 60.6% of the goals. Meier-Nico-Noesen are controlling 62.5% of the goals. xG wise they're 54% and 64% so the Jack line right now is giving you a lot better than expected. That bottom 6 just needs to give you something

 

[My3Sons]

So what was the problem in Toronto for Keefe? Thr Leafs couldn’t do anything beyond their stars. Sure NJ has a better defense but it’s starting to look the same in that only the top players are scoring. Maybe they need to change the makeup of the supporting cast but something tells me it will typically be an issue. Something about the system is stifling them on some level. Hopefully they can maximize the offense because they can play defense well and are much tougher than they used to be.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Haula has basically been out on a public skate since the end of October

Seems like it's 2022-23 all over again and Haula and Mercer are the new scapegoats instead of Miles Wood and Michael McLeod.

Devils get shutout by another team with some heaviness and structure but the scorers are absolved of any fault.

Tough to understand.

 

[Mgd31]

Seems like it's 2022-23 all over again and Haula and Mercer are the new scapegoats instead of Miles Wood and Michael McLeod.

Devils get shutout by another team with some heaviness and structure but the scorers are absolved of any fault.

Tough to understand.

No im just saying generally Haula has been terrible. I called out the top 6 in an earlier post that they only have like 2 points last 3 games and need to be better