Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - playoff edition

[Comparison Ford]

If anything, this series shows how good of a coach Keefe is. Game 1 didn’t go well so he made the proper adjustments and we have seen a fantastic effort since then. These games should be blowouts, but the team has been in each game. With THIS roster, I say he has done a great job. Get him better offensive players for next season.

i want Keefe to be like Brindamour and just be here forever

 

[NJDevs26]

Hard to imagine that without at least multiple Cups, Brindy was a franchise legend as a player in Carolina already so he’ll likely stay in their good graces even if he never wins as a coach

 

[Derps]

But then the problem is where do you use it.

Hughes, Hischier, Meier, Bratt: 4 (top 6)
Palat, mercer, Noesen, Gritysuk: 4 (middle 6)
Cotter, Haula, Glass: 3 (Bottom 6)

That right there is 11 forwards already, and all of them I'd say are belonging in an NHL lineup. I firmly believe 1, real, good 3C and this forward group looks very very good.

But I don't think clearing large amounts of cap space to get a 3C makes sense (if you have space, you use space, and you likely end up with a deal like compher or copp that you regret down the line as they decline). I believe in buying retention on a guy to MAKE him cheaper.

I don't think 2 good forwards is going to be something you want to try and buy this year tbh. Again, look at the UFA pool (I know, trades exist, but the UFA pool helps dictate the market for trades. If there aren't great UFA options, more teams will try and trade, which means higher prices).

Again, this is why I keep trying to hammer in I don't think it's a good offseason to try and blow the roster up

Who do you consider is "one really good 3C"

 

[youryeah]

if you get rid of dougie, they are going to need to find some scoring from the backend outside of luke. nemec assuming here's here maybe takes a step up offensively, casey if he's here.. outside of those two who is going to be chipping in? not saying it's a bad idea to ship douglas out- just something to ponder

 

[dgibb10]

Worried about Palat aging even more next year, Mercer looks like the guy the past two years v the guy we thought in 22-23. Noesen is highly mediocre outside of his shooting bender but he's not making too much so that's fine. Gritsyuk will have growing pains in his first year. They can either have the top guys hero puck them to the deadline while adding a big piece there or make the team set basically in October and add depth come the deadline. Fitz has done both in his GM tenure so we'll see.

I think those are all very real concerns but I think the kind of guys you get are going to come with a lot of questions themselves (teams don't tend to give up guys without worries unless it's for a pretty hefty price), and you're usually locking yourself into those guys for longer than the 1-2 years left on basically everyone outside the core we have.

In terms of Gritysuk specifically I think you have to take that gamble. He's either a top 6 guy or he's not. He's not a guy who you're gonna fit into a more defensive line in the bottom 6.

Also note, I respect you and where you're coming from. I just think we have slightly different approaches to solving it.

I think if I put together 7 guys (eg, Glass, Palat, Mercer, Noesen, Gritysuk, Offseasonn Acquisition (probably 3C), Haula), and say.

Okay, I need 1 of you to be able to fit into the top 6 at the minimum as a complimentary winger. If 2 can you're golden.

I need between you all to form a GOOD 3rd line in some capacity/combo. If you reach 2 guys meeting the criteria above you only need 2 guys to be playing at a quality level, but again you're golden if it works.

And then you fill what's probably going to be 1 real hole at the deadline accordingly with a higher end piece. And obviously probably like 2nd-4th round cost acquisitions for dealing with what is hopefully minimal injuries

 

[Davegarri]

So who’s gone from the forward group for sure this summer? Tatar and lazar immediately come to mind. Is Bastian a free agent this summer? Obviously upgrading palat and Haula would be great but I think Haula can bounce back and he’s a good centre if you’re not praying for him to score 40 points.

I'd imagine (and hope) every free agent except Glass will be gone.

Our bottom 6 will look drastically different next year.

 

[Zippy316]

I see it like this

??? Hughes Bratt
??? Hischier Meier
Gritsyuk ??? Mercer
Haula Glass Noesen

Obviously my vision is moving Palat but that will be hard. Also time to move on from Douglas. We need cap to fix this forward situation. Haula can be valuable on the 4th line and move up if needed due to injuries. Don’t mind him finishing his contract here.

I think it’s more likely the bottom six is Gritsyuk - Haula - Mercer and Cotter - 4C - Noesen on paper.

Dougie for Marchment + Dumba is my dream semi-realistic off-season deal. I’d also like to see the Devils sign a forward or two like Mangiapane or Beauvillier or Zetterlund if he’s not qualified that have sleeper potential to be productive third wheel forwards.

Assuming the above happens:

Marchment - Hughes - Bratt
Mangiapane - Hischier - Meier
Gritsyuk - Haula - Mercer
Cotter - Glass - Noesen
McDermid

I could get behind this but my biggest concern here would be the center depth. I do wonder if Mercer’s recent play has changed the organizations opinions about him being able to play center with a play driving winger like Meier or Bratt.

Forward group still needs an upgrade, but that’s what the deadline is for.

 

[Edmonton East]

I disagree, I think there’s a couple teams I could see having interest in Dougie. I think there’s a chance the Devils would also be interested in hockey trades where they get some middle-six pieces for depth in return too. A contending team might be willing to take that risk.

Dallas would to finally get a competent RHD. Could target Marchment and take Dumba as a cap dump.

I wonder about Tampa/Florida maybe being interested, depending on the value and retention. Devils would have to take salary back though in either deal.

I could see Nashville too being interested. Maybe even Detroit if it’s an opportunity to move out some of their bad UFA deals like Compher, Copp, or Tarasenko.

Again the issue ends up being who he would waive his NMC too. Dallas seems like the most likely option along with the Florida teams. Dougie might not see the incentive to waive for Nashville or Detroit and doesn’t seem like the guy that would wanna go to Canada.

Solid post, although the Dallas scenario is particularly unlikely imo. Look at their cap and Duchene + Benn on expiry. They can easily move Dumba with a small pick. No reason to move Marchment in that type of deal. If anything, they could drug Seguin and have him waive to go to NJ I guess (pass).

I'm not gonna bother guessing Hamilton's value....impossible to gauge without his 10 team list. Could be anywhere from around what you suggested to negative value.

 

[dgibb10]

Who do you consider is "one really good 3C"

A) note, I said

"1, real, good 3c" as in a guy who is a more proven option who's played C, and is a good 3C.

In terms of NJD the first thought that comes to mind for what I want it to look like is the level of play Michael McLeod had reached in 23-24 and looked like he'd became before he got outed as a rapist.

Backlund in calgary is my absolute dream for what a 3C would provide.
JGP comes to mind.
ROR.
Compher/Copp I think would fit that mold
Jason Dickinson in chicago.
Anton Lundell (although due to his age his price is on another level)
What Jordan Staal does in carolina.
Coyle fit that mold.
Ryan McLeod
Nic Dowd (I'm an absolute sucker for him I think he is arguably the most underrated guy in the league
Pius Suter
Jake Evans
Adam Henrique (I know he had a rough year)
Sissons (again, rough year)

I've been talking about this type of target a while dating back to, well, dating back to when McLeod got arrested.

 

[theoptimist]

Dumo at 3 mill x 2 is a VERY ambitious signing.

I think this upcoming UFA is going to have a LOT of sticker shock.

3x4.5M

 

[Guadana]

i mean we are all looking to keep nemec because of a small playoff sample and couple games but we are all looking to ditch hamilton off a playoff sample and couple games after coming back missing 20 games to end the season.

now you will mention age and contract sure concerns but hamilton still has value

We are looking to keep Nemec because he has very very good 18 yo season in AHL, very good season as 19 yo in NHL, and after finally having some ice time and practice on the regular in NHL he is showing all the thing he "promised" as 2OA pick on the draft. And his next deal will be cheap most likely.

In the same time Dougie played only one full season out of four, his salary will open a lot of space and now it looks like we can replace him because with healthy Luke team is starting to cook. And we will never know how many good games we have in Dougie with or without his shot anymore. So its def-ly a time to trade him if we will have an opportunity to make it happen.

 

[dgibb10]

I see it like this

??? Hughes Bratt
??? Hischier Meier
Gritsyuk ??? Mercer
Cotter Haula Noesen

Obviously my vision is moving Palat but that will be hard. Also time to move on from Douglas. We need cap to fix this forward situation. Haula can be valuable on the 4th line and move up if needed due to injuries. Don’t mind him finishing his contract here.

Question is, can we find some wingers on good value contracts for the top 6 and a true 3C (oh be quiet My3Sons) which will naturally fix the bottom six by pushing the Noesens Mercers and Haulas of the world down a line.

I really disagree about trying to buy "top 6 wingers"

They cost way more because of point totals, most of the ones really available are not actually that good (carried by some combo of linemates and PP time). And again, they're expensive. And then the point totals will drop as they leave PP1. And they may not fit. And they rarely make already great stars reach the next level.

I think you make these top 6 wingers by finding diamonds in the rough that FIT alongside your stars. Warren Foegele heading into this past offseason was someone who I thought would work great with Jack/Bratt.

Especially since you also can't REALLY just "push guys down a line".

The roster you showed is 4 offensive minded lines. Not a lot of great PKers, or defensively minded guys at ALL beyond Nico and Mercer.

 

[Derps]

I think it’s more likely the bottom six is Gritsyuk - Haula - Mercer and Cotter - 4C - Noesen on paper.

Dougie for Marchment + Dumba is my dream semi-realistic off-season deal. I’d also like to see the Devils sign a forward or two like Mangiapane or Beauvillier or Zetterlund if he’s not qualified that have sleeper potential to be productive third wheel forwards.

Assuming the above happens:

Marchment - Hughes - Bratt
Mangiapane - Hischier - Meier
Gritsyuk - Haula - Mercer
Cotter - Glass - Noesen
McDermid

I could get behind this but my biggest concern here would be the center depth. I do wonder if Mercer’s recent play has changed the organizations opinions about him being able to play center with a play driving winger like Meier or Bratt.

Forward group still needs an upgrade, but that’s what the deadline is for.

How many games do Hischier and Hughes have to miss before we realize entering the season with this type of center depth is batshit insane. The track record since 2020 is there and yet we continuously want to do the same thing over and over again. They need depth up the middle more than most teams. That needs to be the priority.

 

[dgibb10]

I think it’s more likely the bottom six is Gritsyuk - Haula - Mercer and Cotter - 4C - Noesen on paper.

Dougie for Marchment + Dumba is my dream semi-realistic off-season deal. I’d also like to see the Devils sign a forward or two like Mangiapane or Beauvillier or Zetterlund if he’s not qualified that have sleeper potential to be productive third wheel forwards.

Assuming the above happens:

Marchment - Hughes - Bratt
Mangiapane - Hischier - Meier
Gritsyuk - Haula - Mercer
Cotter - Glass - Noesen
McDermid

I could get behind this but my biggest concern here would be the center depth. I do wonder if Mercer’s recent play has changed the organizations opinions about him being able to play center with a play driving winger like Meier or Bratt.

Forward group still needs an upgrade, but that’s what the deadline is for.

The capitals just traded a 2nd round pick for Mangiapane at 6 mill this past offseason

What money&term did you think you were getting Mangiapane for.

Again, I think you'll find a lot of sticker shock there.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I think you make these top 6 wingers by finding diamonds in the rough

Was absolutely implying looking for good value wingers via trade who can play top 6. Not just via UFA

Especially since you also can't REALLY just "push guys down a line".

Improving the top of the lineup does help the bottom by default. Don’t have to rely on guys playing over their heads when injuries occur

The roster you showed is 4 offensive minded lines. Not a lot of great PKers, or defensively minded guys at ALL beyond Nico and Mercer.

Haula, Jack, Bratt, Nico, Mercer already play PK, on one of the best PK teams in the league? I assume a few forwards that they will acquire this offseason will play PK as well and hopefully good two way play.

Don’t foresee that being an issue.

 

[dgibb10]

We are looking to keep Nemec because he has very very good 18 yo season in AHL, very good season as 19 yo in NHL, and after finally having some ice time and practice on the regular in NHL he is showing all the thing he "promised" as 2OA pick on the draft. And his next deal will be cheap most likely.

In the same time Dougie played only one full season out of four, his salary will open a lot of space and now it looks like we can replace him because with healthy Luke team is starting to cook. And we will never know how many good games we have in Dougie with or without his shot anymore. So its def-ly a time to trade him if we will have an opportunity to make it happen.

I'm gonna be honest with everyone.

I was fully on board with saying "we can lock Luke in as a guy we can TRUST to be our best D if need be next year" heading into the new year when him and pesce were cooking.

But he was frankly very disappointing after that.

 

[dgibb10]

Was absolutely implying looking for good value wingers via trade who can play top 6. Not just via UFA

Improving the top of the lineup does help the bottom by default. Don’t have to rely on guys playing over their heads when injuries occur


Haula, Jack, Bratt, Nico, Mercer already play PK? I assume a few forwards that they will acquire this offseason will play PK as well.

Jack and Bratt are built to take advantage of more tired PP guys and PP2 guys later in the kill. And they have been damn good at it from what we saw.

They are not guys you trot out there against a fresh PP1 to hold it down.

 

[dgibb10]

Was absolutely implying looking for good value wingers via trade who can play top 6. Not just via UFA

Improving the top of the lineup does help the bottom by default. Don’t have to rely on guys playing over their heads when injuries occur


Haula, Jack, Bratt, Nico, Mercer already play PK, on one of the best PK teams in the league? I assume a few forwards that they will acquire this offseason will play PK as well and hopefully good two way play.

Don’t foresee that being an issue.

The problem with "?????" is you haven't provided any detail or any example of what it could even look like.

"let's just get good value top 6 wingers via trade"

What's the acquisition cost we're talking about? 1st++, 2nds? casey?
What's their cap range?? 3 mill? 6 mill? 8 mill?
Are we talking term or are we talking about buying a guy who you have to replace in 1 years time?

 

[Guadana]

I'm gonna be honest with everyone.

I was fully on board with saying "we can lock Luke in as a guy we can TRUST to be our best D if need be next year" heading into the new year when him and pesce were cooking.

But he was frankly very disappointing after that.

Im okay with it. Both are still young, both will be more experienced for next season. A lot of people were ready to trade Nemec for second round pick because 20 yo player wasnt as flashy and made mistakes after returning from injury and playing with absolutely no trust and hard pressure. Now it looks like part of fan base isnt as harsh and other part of fan base is just trying to forget about everything good around him.
Luke made his tonns of mistakes in his first year. He wasnt perfect this year, especially in second half, but he faced a lot of pressure and attention and still produced well. I think he will be even better next year. And Im not so sure about Dougie next year, especially shooting. And I do think that both Nemec and Luke can play better defensively than Dougie. Yes, its a bet, but on my taste - its a good bet, because both are very young, talented and on upward trajectory, will be surrounded by Kovy, Ziggy, Pesce and (I hope) Dumo - quite nice defensive line.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Why do I even bother here. Bunch of grumps who need to touch grass

 

[Devs3cups]

I think I lock up Luke long term to any reasonable number this summer no questions asked. 8 years x 8.5-9 mil is an absolute must imo.

 

[dgibb10]

Im okay with it. Both are still young, both will be more experienced for next season. A lot of people were ready to trade Nemec for second round pick because 20 yo player wasnt as flashy and made mistakes after returning from injury and playing with absolutely no trust and hard pressure. Now it looks like part of fan base isnt as harsh and other part of fan base is just trying to forget about everything good around him.
Luke made his tonns of mistakes in his first year. He wasnt perfect this year, especially in second half, but he faced a lot of pressure and attention and still produced well. I think he will be even better next year. And Im not so sure about Dougie next year, especially shooting. And I do think that both Nemec and Luke can play better defensively than Dougie. Yes, its a bet, but on my taste - its a good bet, because both are very young, talented and on upward trajectory, will be surrounded by Kovy, Ziggy, Pesce and (I hope) Dumo - quite nice defensive line.

I'm gonna be real with you. Out of every player on NJDs roster right now, Dumoulin is the one I least expect to be here next year. I would be genuinely shocked to see him back

Lazar, Bass, Dowling, Sprong, Tatar I could all very well see as either a healthy scratch or the 12th forward.
Glass very easy to see him being brought back.
Anyone under contract for obvious reasons, especially given the supposed "guys to be traded" have protections.
Allen is easy to justify if you want

But dumo? a 33 year old rental dman when you HAVE 7 other dman who all need a lineup spot already?


In terms of dougie. It comes down to this. NJD's biggest problem this year was scoring goals? correct?

When dougie hamilton was on the ice, NJD scored 4.7 goals/60 (yes I know all situations is lazy but the point is to show his PP and EV at once and I'm too lazy to screenshot both rn. That was the best in the league among dmen by a significant margin. Makar was 2 at 4.4.

How in the world does getting rid of that fix that problem of goal scoring.

 

[JK3]

I can do tomorrows GDT if no one has anything. It's going to be sarcastic though.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I see it like this

??? Hughes Bratt
??? Hischier Meier
Gritsyuk ??? Mercer
Cotter Haula Noesen

Obviously my vision is moving Palat but that will be hard. Also time to move on from Douglas. We need cap to fix this forward situation. Haula can be valuable on the 4th line and move up if needed due to injuries. Don’t mind him finishing his contract here.

Question is, can we find some wingers on good value contracts for the top 6 and a true 3C (oh be quiet My3Sons) which will naturally fix the bottom six by pushing the Noesens Mercers and Haulas of the world down a line.

This is pretty much how I see it too. The only thing I’ll add is we need to ensure the D becomes more mobile. Casey and Nemec might provide that but they might either be traded or falter - we need an insurance plan for them.

 

[Guadana]

I'm gonna be real with you. Out of every player on NJDs roster right now, Dumoulin is the one I least expect to be here next year. I would be genuinely shocked to see him back

Lazar, Bass, Dowling, Sprong, Tatar I could all very well see as either a healthy scratch or the 12th forward.
Glass very easy to see him being brought back.
Anyone under contract for obvious reasons, especially given the supposed "guys to be traded" have protections.
Allen is easy to justify if you want

But dumo? a 33 year old rental dman when you HAVE 7 other dman who all need a lineup spot already?


In terms of dougie. It comes down to this. NJD's biggest problem this year was scoring goals? correct?

When dougie hamilton was on the ice, NJD scored 4.7 goals/60 (yes I know all situations is lazy but the point is to show his PP and EV at once and I'm too lazy to screenshot both rn. That was the best in the league among dmen by a significant margin. Makar was 2 at 4.4.

How in the world does getting rid of that fix that problem of goal scoring.

I saw rumors about problems with health of Dillon. If its true - situation with Dumo could be very different. If he will recover normally, than I will not wait Dumo for next season.

If we are talking about Dogie - yeah, some trust in your young players, some trust in helping of Gritsyuk, some trust in new top-6F\competent 3rd line center(I hope).
I really like Dougie and Im not sure at all that we will trade him(I think its less likey than more likely) but I think its a last (and the first) good opportunity to trade him.