Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - playoff edition

[dgibb10]

Slots like backup goalie good enough" (because that's a crapshoot anyway, don't act like 35 year old jake allen couldn't also be a tire fire next year) and "is the 2nd best winger on my 2nd line doing enough offensively to help Nico and Timo REALLy reach their peak" are pieces you worry about at the deadline, not the offseason.

You give guys like Daws a shot, Gritysuk a shot. Otherwise you'll never know what you have there.

And worst case, you spend a 2nd/3rd in season to fix that hole.

Now if we desperately needed a 2C or a dman to eat 20+ minutes, or to fix our PP, that would be different.


But we're talking about 14-15 minute a night wingers, and backup goalies, and 11 minute a night scoring wingers.

As we've seen this team, as currently constructed with all it's flaws and with all these injuries, is a playoff caliber team.

 

[dgibb10]

Just wait 6 weeks it might happen

Speaking of the leafs you know what they didn't do?

Ship out their high priced "overpaid" guys to fix their depth.

They didn't ship out tavares, they didn't ship out reilly. They didn't create a new hole to fix an existing one.


What they did do, which I liked. They bought retention. Multi year retention in fact. That's how they've handled it.

"Oh we can't afford a quality LD in our situation". Well what if McCabe cost half that for the next 3 years. We need a RD now? Let's take 600k off carlo for the next 3 years so it fits.

Oh we need a bottom 6C? Let's grab Laughton. But instead of dumping someone off the roster, they bought retention.

So, for example, instead of paying a 1st or whatever it is to dump palat, then paying 3 mill for a guy to replicate his production/role, giving you 3 mill with which to improve your roster.

You take that 1st, and send it to a team for their 3C (retained to a price we can afford at that slot).

We did the same with markstrom. Instead of shipping out vanacek in a markstrom trade to fit the cap. We bought retention on marky. And we were able able to ship out Vanacek in another deal. Buying retention is MUCH better than dumping a bad contract.

Because Palat (for example) is still a good NHL player. But if we try and dump him the other team won't care that he's probably worth 3 mill. They'll only be looking at the cost of eating 6x2. Same with Haula. You pay to dump a full 3+ mill when he'll cost 2 just to replace the value of.

 

[dgibb10]

For example, instead of paying what, a 1st+2nd or whatever it is for dumping Haula and Palat and then MORE (in either money in UFA or in trade) to get their replacements+other upgrades.

Why not just go buy retention on a whatever guy you wanted anyway for those assets.

And then, if shit hits the fan even MORE with Palat, or Hamilton, or whoever. Guess what you can still do next year. I can still ship them out. Haula's contract expires.

But if you dump them first and get full priced assets, you can't go back and retroactively buy retention on whoever you got

 

[13BearerOfHope]

3 questions for Sunday:
- What does Jack need to do to be less injury prone ; Is it just building more muscle around those fragile bones?
- Quinn apparently said he wants to play with his brothers. His contract ends in 2 years. If you are Tom Fitz-loco, do you trade for him now or wait for him to become UFA?
- who do we need to trade for in the offseason to improve our forward depth without this costing too many assets, who’s on the market that has grit and doesn’t suck (we already will get Grits-y-suck)?

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I just realized the Canes did that 2 on 1 play on the pp earlier in the game. The goal they scored, it wasn't their first time doing it (I thought it was and they just got caught off guard).

The screenshot is from earlier pp where they did this.

They didn't have anyone behind them; they weren't going to do that drop pass. They really need to fix their pk to adjust for this when needed.

Looking at the replay on the goal though, looks more like just a skill issue than a positioning issue. There's no excuse for them to allow the 2 guys to just pass between them like that. Made them look like an all-star team vs an amateur team. If the devils tried same thing, they'd prob just get it intercepted, as it should.

 

[NjDevsRR]

3 questions for Sunday:

Bruh, we have a playoff game Sunday

 

[dgibb10]

3 questions for Sunday:
- What does Jack need to do to be less injury prone ; Is it just building more muscle around those fragile bones?
- Quinn apparently said he wants to play with his brothers. His contract ends in 2 years. If you are Tom Fitz-loco, do you trade for him now or wait for him to become UFA?
- who do we need to trade for in the offseason to improve our forward depth without this costing too many assets, who’s on the market that has grit and doesn’t suck (we already will get Grits-y-suck)?

No, you do not trade for him now. Unless it's a package centered around Dougie Hamilton where van wants to be the calgary flames in a 2025 version of the Huberdeau-Tkachuk trade (they don't want to do this), the NTCs, contracts, and cap currently in NJD make up makes it a disaster to trade for quinn now (especially when the ask will involve ALL of our cost controlled guys).

You would have this and be absolutely handcuffed by it

Now, when he hits UFA, it makes sense

Kovy's protections go to 10 team NTC, Dillon expires, Last year of dougie, Pesce's protections go to 15 team NTC, palat expires, etc etc

 

[Incharge1976]

As we've seen this team, as currently constructed with all it's flaws and with all these injuries, is a playoff caliber team.

I don't know how old you are, but a lot of us were around in the 90's when this organization was really good for a long time with a legitimate chance to win the cup every year. Some of us want a bit more than fighting for a spot every year only to bow out because our depth is terrible.

"Who said I was bringing in 1 bottom six player with Dougie's $9M? $9M should get you around 35 goals for two players, and if you can move Haula or Palat, even better."

This is such awful logic.
A) it ignores the minutes those forwards are replacing and the goals lost from there.
B) it ignores the 5v5 impact dougie has on offense (hint: it's pretty massive).
C) it ignores how many goals they would give up.

When you sign a player you don't just add his goal total to your goal differential lmao.

Connor McDavid (and his line) had the best expected goal differential in hockey at +25 for the year. (and that's in about as many minutes as your bottom 6 COMBINED).

FYI here are the metrics.
View attachment 1023765
Just Luke+Jack: 10.27
Just Luke: 7.71
Just Dougie+Jack: 12.89
Just Dougie: 10.41

Dougie WITHOUT Jack outperforms Luke WITH Jack

And as you can see from that bottom one (with none of them), It's not just the PP1 minutes you're hurting. You also then have a PP2 that provides basically nothing.

For example we scored 8 goals in the first 20 games with dougie and the PP2 he was running in 23-24. We then scored an abysmal 2 goals from our PP2 for the remaining 62 games of the year.

The PP looks like crap. You still don't get it and I expect you never will because everything on this team revolves around Dougie as far as you're concerned.

Dougie has a great shot. That's all he offers on the PP. That's it. When you play against teams like Carolina with a really good PP, there are no lanes for him to shoot the puck without people like Jack that move around to open up lanes for him.

Devils were 3 for 8 on the PP this year with Jack against Carolina. How many do they have now? Zero, as in Zero goals in 10 tries.

If you think the current PP form is better with Dougie in there instead of having Jack and Luke, I don't know what to say to you. We can't even enter the zone and when we do the PP still looks bad.

 

[britdevil]

3 questions for Sunday:
- What does Jack need to do to be less injury prone ; Is it just building more muscle around those fragile bones?
- Quinn apparently said he wants to play with his brothers. His contract ends in 2 years. If you are Tom Fitz-loco, do you trade for him now or wait for him to become UFA?
- who do we need to trade for in the offseason to improve our forward depth without this costing too many assets, who’s on the market that has grit and doesn’t suck (we already will get Grits-y-suck)?

1. Ok, how the hell does one answer this? The basic answer is yes, Jack needs to work on strength/conditioning. No doubt he will seek the absolute best physical therapy money can buy. I absolutely dread to say it, but he could also just be injury prone and we never see him fully healthy ever again. All Devils fans know this and I think most of us accept it. Like it or not, this franchise is now tied to his (and his brothers) legacy.

2. Again, another hard question to answer. Logically you have to think that the brothers want to be together. Three elite hockey players, brothers, with a once in a lifetime opportunity to play together? They would be nuts to not want this. We've seen them celebrate Luke getting drafted by the Devils, we've heard the soundbites and quotes about wanting to do it. I feel sorry for the Canucks fans, but this will happen. As to whether or not they trade for him?? It would need to make sense for both parties and quite frankly I can't come up with one that does. Would the Canucks take Dougie? Doubtful as you don't build around him. Would they take Meier? Again, not a guy you build around. They aren't taking garbage contracts like Palat/Haula. Devils also don't have the draft capital to pull this off, nor should they when they can simply wait and sign him at UFA. I simply don't see a trade happening. I flip flop on Meier a lot (today is a good day), but if they'd take him (+) for Quinn, it's hard to say no. I doubt Meier has any intention of leaving anyway so the point is "moot".

3. The UFA market is uuuugly this year. I really hope Fitz stays out. There are going to be some bad deals given out. As to players available? I don't think we will have a good idea until closer to the draft/UFA day. GM's will be only just starting their offseason plans and we won't get journalistic snippets until these plans are made. Surprising players become available and we know that TF is a shrewd trader. I have no doubt it my mind that he will surprise with a couple quality additions that come out of nowhere. For me, I'd be targeting guys in 26-30 age bracket who can skate well, can score adequately and can play up in the lineup. Basically I'd be targeting younger versions of Haula and Palat....

 

[Figgie]

Or they would be filled with guys like Palat and Glass.

So our forward core would be exactly like this year? Did you watch any games this season? We don't have any secondary scoring in our team. And yes I know it is not easy to upgrade that attack but trading Hamilton, Haula, Palat (one or two or all of them) would get us at least more cap space.

Which trade assets are you using and for who (again keep in mind you're paying to dump Palat and Haula apparently).

Who, and for how much. (again, you're also paying to dump Palat)

Good question. We can use draft picks to get rid of Palats contract. I think in good luck some team could take Haula free or with some late draft pick. I think Hamilton would bring some assets till us. It would be stupid from Fitzgerald to not even try to trade those guys. I understand if he don't want to trade Hamilton but I would trade my self and at least watch what I can get for him. It is not easy to get even Palat and Haula out but Fitz should at least try to do something to improve our team.

I have not any idea of which players are available for trade. We have still good situation with draft picks so maybe use some of them? Maybe top6 winger or 3c would be my main target (if we have that cap space). Then try to find some cheaper options for other places.

If we keep Hamilton so then Nemec would be good trade asset and maybe Casey also. What would you do with Nemec if we keep Hamilton? He does not want to play in AHL.

Well considering that roster would have more than a million extra dollars to play with, you'd likely turn one of Bastian/Lazar/Macdermid/Dowling into Glass and go from there. And so from there we'd be swapping Tatar/Bastian and turning it into Gritysuk/Glass.

Glass would be good replacement but I don't think that he would be enough good as 3c. Gritsyuk is question mark and we can only hope that he is enough good for the lineup.

 

[BomaLightDevils]

What about Quinn Hughes for Nemec, Hamilton and 1 rd pick.

It’s fair when dealing with only one buyer and it will fit cap wise

 

[dgibb10]

I don't know how old you are, but a lot of us were around in the 90's when this organization was really good for a long time with a legitimate chance to win the cup every year. Some of us want a bit more than fighting for a spot every year only to bow out because our depth is terrible.


The PP looks like crap. You still don't get it and I expect you never will because everything on this team revolves around Dougie as far as you're concerned.

Dougie has a great shot. That's all he offers on the PP. That's it. When you play against teams like Carolina with a really good PP, there are no lanes for him to shoot the puck without people like Jack that move around to open up lanes for him.

Devils were 3 for 8 on the PP this year with Jack against Carolina. How many do they have now? Zero, as in Zero goals in 10 tries.

If you think the current PP form is better with Dougie in there instead of having Jack and Luke, I don't know what to say to you. We can't even enter the zone and when we do the PP still looks bad.

"It's tough to succeed against the best PK in the league without your gamebreaking weapon on the PP" is not some genius take.

Who the f*** builds a team to win with Jack Hughes hurt.

If Jack Hughes isn't healthy the devils will almost certainly not win a cup no matter WHAT they do with the rest of the roster. You can't build a roster that can be the best in the league without your best player in the salary cap era.

Unfortunately, he has injury troubles. You can either accept that, or ship him (Jack Hughes out) out for someone else. Building a team to somehow win a cup without him is not realistic roster construction.

IT ISN'T THE 90S ANYMORE. THE SALARY CAP EXISTS NOW. PLAYERS HIT UFA AT 27 NOT 31.

You need to get with the times.


In summary. The only way the devils will win a cup is with a healthy Jack Hughes. And so, the roster around it should be built based on the assumption that you HAVE jack hughes in the lineup

 

[JimEIV]

You ever have bacon jerky? I would trade anything for a big bag of that stuff.

 

[Triumph]

I just realized the Canes did that 2 on 1 play on the pp earlier in the game. The goal they scored, it wasn't their first time doing it (I thought it was and they just got caught off guard).

The screenshot is from earlier pp where they did this.

They didn't have anyone behind them; they weren't going to do that drop pass. They really need to fix their pk to adjust for this when needed.

Looking at the replay on the goal though, looks more like just a skill issue than a positioning issue. There's no excuse for them to allow the 2 guys to just pass between them like that. Made them look like an all-star team vs an amateur team. If the devils tried same thing, they'd prob just get it intercepted, as it should.

Yeah, or maybe it's because the Devils had an R-R PK pairing because their top 3 penalty killers were injured and another one was in the box. Nah, couldn't be anything like that.

 

[dgibb10]

So our forward core would be exactly like this year? Did you watch any games this season? We don't have any secondary scoring in our team. And yes I know it is not easy to upgrade that attack but trading Hamilton, Haula, Palat (one or two or all of them) would get us at least more cap space.

No, you would add Gritysuk and Glass to this year's (healthy) lineup in place of Dowling and Tatar. 2 very clear upgrades. And if you need more, you buy it at the deadline. Don't try and completely reinvent a team that was VERY good when healthy.

Good question. We can use draft picks to get rid of Palats contract. I think in good luck some team could take Haula free or with some late draft pick. I think Hamilton would bring some assets till us. It would be stupid from Fitzgerald to not even try to trade those guys. I understand if he don't want to trade Hamilton but I would trade my self and at least watch what I can get for him. It is not easy to get even Palat and Haula out but Fitz should at least try to do something to improve our team.

Cost controlled contracts will likely be at a premium and the UFA market is really bad. This is not the year to try and really change the team that drastically. (hence why NJD made sure to basically have only 4th liners expiring going into this year)

I have not any idea of which players are available for trade. We have still good situation with draft picks so maybe use some of them? Maybe top6 winger or 3c would be my main target (if we have that cap space). Then try to find some cheaper options for other places.

Yes, it seems very clear you don't have a laid out plan for what it looks like beyond "move these guys out". No even potential targets, no even thought of costs, no even thought of what the full roster looks like.

"Replace these guys and get better guys" sounds great in theory without any actual specifics to back it up.

If we keep Hamilton so then Nemec would be good trade asset and maybe Casey also. What would you do with Nemec if we keep Hamilton? He does not want to play in AHL.



Glass would be good replacement but I don't think that he would be enough good as 3c. Gritsyuk is question mark and we can only hope that he is enough good for the lineup.

I'd move Pesce to the left side and roll Pesce, Luke, Siegs, Hamilton, Kovy, Nemec. You can keep the aging dillon fresh as a 7D (albeit an expensive one), or you can be honest with him and say, hey, we don't have a space for you in the lineup, let's explore a trade. and then you use THAT cap to grab your forward without taking away from the lineup elsewhere. Grab a 7D vet like a forbort in that scenario for around 1.5 mill

Yes, there will be question marks. These are the chances you have to take to get the upside of being a cup team. You have to take chances that your prospect can handle being a top 6 complimentary winger, or mercer gets back to 22-23, and that glass can be a 3C or Haula has a bounceback year. And then, you see which of those chances worked and which didn't, and buy at the deadline accordingly

Florida for example they took their chances with a bargain bin dcore and guys like Boqvist etc as cheap fliers at forward. Some guys, like Adam Boqvist, didn't work. So they made adjustments at the deadline.

Vegas went into their cup year with an absolutely MASSIVE question mark at goalie. like 30 combined starts worth of experience in their careers question mark.

 

[dgibb10]

What about Quinn Hughes for Nemec, Hamilton and 1 rd pick.

It’s fair when dealing with only one buyer and it will fit cap wise

I'd prefer to move casey+whatever to make up that value gap than Nemec if a trade does occur

Casey is an elite PPQB, but that value is wasted if you have quinn and luke for the forseeable future. Meanwhile van will need a long term PPQB.

Nemec is better EV imo, but he's not a PPQB

 

[Triumph]

I cannot believe I came into this thread yesterday and people were talking about all of the offseason bullshit again. We won a game. Don't you people enjoy anything about the NHL playoffs?

 

[Devils731]

I cannot believe I came into this thread yesterday and people were talking about all of the offseason bullshit again. We won a game. Don't you people enjoy anything about the NHL playoffs?

The playoffs are great!

Should we discuss the likely offseason moves and who the Devils are most likely to face in round 1 next year? I think Montreal

 

[devilsblood]

You ever have bacon jerky? I would trade anything for a big bag of that stuff.

Ur a big bag of jerk.

 

[devilsblood]

The playoffs are great!

Should we discuss the likely offseason moves and who the Devils are most likely to face in round 1 next year? I think Montreal

Game 4.

 

[devilsblood]

I assume no Luke today?

 

[Devils731]

I assume no Luke today?

Ya, him and Dillon were ruled out yesterday, I believe.

Which doesn’t make me think either is anywhere close to coming back.

 

[BahlDeep]

You don't trade Nemo.

f*** this noise. Dude has been in the league for 2 years. He had a great year last year relatively speaking.

He was dealing with an injury early this season, got sent down took him some time to find his groove and started cooking.

Got called back up, took him longer than expected to settle in and now finding his groove. He doesn't have a dynamic trait like Luke has with his skating. He isn't a "sexy" player to draw attention away from his negatives.

Someone mentioned it, Luke hasn't had a great year by any means, he's been underwhelming relative to expectations.

They are both (very) young defenseman that need time to hopefully reach their potential.

 

[McDuffz88]

Where is he supposed to play next year? If we don't trade Dougie our D's Siegs-Luke-Dillon on the left side and Pesce-Dougie-Kovy on the right side. If we do trade Dougie, Nemec probably replaces him on the right side.

I'm already cool with moving on from Dillon. Let Pesce play LD and throw Nemec in.

 

[Edmonton East]

Assuming Kovacevic is out as well, I'd prefer rolling with 7D. Cholowski and Casey, with Casey getting some powerplay time. Tired of seeing Hamilton dominate minutes and it'd almost be impossible for the powerplay to perform worse. No where to go but up.