Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - playoff edition

[dgibb10]

Does your definition of complimentary mean sticking a third liner on the the top unit like this other suggests??

Bobby McMann, Matthew Knies.
Erod
Raddysh, Gonclaves
Beauvillier, Wilson
Saad, Dorofeyev
Snuggerud, Schenn, Neighbours,
Zetterlund, Cozens
Anderson, Gallagher, Dvorak,
Foligno, Hartman
Kuzmenko, Laferriere
Arvidsson, Podz
Blake, Hall, KK

Are all listed in top 6s per Daily Faceoff:

And note you'll find a number of dmen who you would be VERY unhappy if we were trotting out on those teams as well

and the only teams without these 2-3 more complimentary guys

Colorado: getting LTIR landeskog back+2 1sts of assets spent on nelson.
Dallas: Rantanen, Granlund bought, 4+ 1sts worth sent out
Florida: 2+ 1sts worth of assets sent out for Marchand and Seth jones

Guys like Mercer, Noesen, Palat (yes), and Gritysuk are not out of place on these contending teams. Yes, a guy like Mercer needs to step it up for it to be legit, or a guy like Gritysuk needs to hit for us to win a cup.

But that is how life is. You need to take chances on the guys you have. Guys that are unproven and cheaper. Guys that may look like they're on the downswing.

And yeah, if they don't pan out, you don't win a cup. Tough shit.

You can't win a cup by going out and getting a bunch of "proven" guys at market value via trades and UFA. There's no surplus value there.

And then, at the deadline, you fill in the rest.

 

[HersheyBob27]

Where is he supposed to play next year? If we don't trade Dougie our D's Siegs-Luke-Dillon on the left side and Pesce-Dougie-Kovy on the right side. If we do trade Dougie, Nemec probably replaces him on the right side.

Im telling you some of our injured D are not gonna be ready till xmas. Believe or not. I care not

 

[HersheyBob27]

Where is he supposed to play next year? If we don't trade Dougie our D's Siegs-Luke-Dillon on the left side and Pesce-Dougie-Kovy on the right side. If we do trade Dougie, Nemec probably replaces him on the right side.

Bobby McMann, Matthew Knies.
Erod
Raddysh, Gonclaves
Beauvillier, Wilson
Saad, Dorofeyev
Snuggerud, Schenn, Neighbours,
Zetterlund, Cozens
Anderson, Gallagher, Dvorak,
Foligno, Hartman
Kuzmenko, Laferriere
Arvidsson, Podz
Blake, Hall, KK

Are all listed in top 6s per Daily Faceoff:

And note you'll find a number of dmen who you would be VERY unhappy if we were trotting out on those teams as well

and the only teams without these 2-3 more complimentary guys

Colorado: getting LTIR landeskog back+2 1sts of assets spent on nelson.
Dallas: Rantanen, Granlund bought, 4+ 1sts worth sent out
Florida: 2+ 1sts worth of assets sent out for Marchand and Seth jones

Guys like Mercer, Noesen, Palat (yes), and Gritysuk are not out of place on these contending teams. Yes, a guy like Mercer needs to step it up for it to be legit, or a guy like Gritysuk needs to hit for us to win a cup.

But that is how life is. You need to take chances on the guys you have. Guys that are unproven and cheaper. Guys that may look like they're on the downswing.

And yeah, if they don't pan out, you don't win a cup. Tough shit.

You can't win a cup by going out and getting a bunch of "proven" guys at market value via trades and UFA. There's no surplus value there.

And then, at the deadline, you fill in the rest.

Mathew knies is an absolute stud. Ii couldn’t get get past that point. 95 % of these guys are better than noessen. And I do appreciate noessens effort

 

[NJDevs26]

If that's really the case then just say they're out for the playoffs and be done with it, no need for the charade of being secretive about their injury status if there's literally no chance they play. Either way they're not giving Dumoulin a three-year deal because some guys might have long-term injuries for part of one season.

 

[dgibb10]

Mathew knies is an absolute stud. Ii couldn’t get get past that point. 95 % of these guys are better than noessen. And I do appreciate noessens effort

Matthew Knies is a complimentary player alongside 2 superstars.

They leafs got similar stuff out of another complimentary guy in Bunting before him.


It's a type of play and production we've seen from Mercer in 22-23.

 

[HersheyBob27]

Matthew Knies is a complimentary player alongside 2 superstars.

They leafs got similar stuff out of another complimentary guy in Bunting before him.

You couldn’t be more wrong. Player of the ilk of knies are oh so rare. Please don’t even try and argue

 

[dgibb10]

You couldn’t be more wrong. Player of the ilk of knies are of so rare. Please don’t even try and argue

Oh is this some stupid point about #GRIT and #POWERFORWARD.

Spare me the bullshit.

He's a 30-30 guy playing PP1 and alongside Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. (and that's with a 19% shooting%).

Yes, guys like Knies are INVALUABLE to a cup run. ELCs/RFAs who can be complimentary pieces while being paid less than their value.

Bunting was doing the exact same thing.

But yes, if he shoots 19% for his career, that is VERY hard to find. I'm not sure he will tho

 

[Incharge1976]

"Improve the 5v5 play by 35 goals". Who are you adding to the bottom 6? McDavid???? 1 single guy in league was +35 5v5 last year (and that was from RIDICULOUS shooting luck)

You're right. The goal is for anyone to score a goal.

Here is every dman in the league ranked by how often their team scores with them on the PP.

Hey, this Dougie guy is pretty good
View attachment 1023662


2% on our PP? Our PP last year with Luke running it was 6% lower for starters. (and that is with great help from dougie on PP2 last year while he was healthy)

Who said I was bringing in 1 bottom six player with Dougie's $9M? $9M should get you around 35 goals for two players, and if you can move Haula or Palat, even better.

Please show me the amount of time with Jack on PP1 for Dougie and Luke in 24/25.

All I see in your post is that the difference in GF/60 - GA/60 for each which is about 2G/60, or exactly 6 more goals over the course of the entire season for Dougie. Granted he missed some time, so lets make it 8 more goals over the course of the season.

This of course is not even taking into account that Luke is 21 years old and getting better, and Dougie is on the downside of his career.

Once again, you keep trying to show how great Dougie is. I love Dougie. It's just the fact we need money for other positions, and Dougie is the logical spot on D given he is slowing down and costs a lot. For what it is worth, I'd like to move Haula and Palat too but Dougie holds more value.

 

[HersheyBob27]

Oh is this some stupid point about #GRIT and #POWERFORWARD.

Spare me the bullshit.

He's a 30-30 guy playing PP1 and alongside Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. (and that's with a 19% shooting%).

Yes, guys like Knies are INVALUABLE to a cup run. ELCs/RFAs who can be complimentary pieces while being paid less than their value.

Bunting was doing the exact same thing.

But yes, if he shoots 19% for his career, that is VERY hard to find. I'm not sure he will tho

Spare me the bullshit? Are you for real?
Do you somehow think Knies is not good .because he is gonna get paid. Any team would kill for this player

 

[My3Sons]

Can someone explain this? Is this actually Quinn?

 

[HersheyBob27]

Can someone explain this? Is this actually Quinn?

Looks like a cute girls to me

 

[Devs3cups]

True depth come thru good drafting and we are screwed

I still have faith in Gritsyuk and Hameenaho being good depth pieces, but yeah, have to agree that our drafting needs to be better.

 

[Lou is God]

Can someone explain this? Is this actually Quinn?

It says it's parody account

 

[Devs3cups]

Glad to see Luke around the team and in the locker room yesterday after the game with the guys. Hopefully he comes back strong.

 

[dgibb10]

Who said I was bringing in 1 bottom six player with Dougie's $9M? $9M should get you around 35 goals for two players, and if you can move Haula or Palat, even better.

Please show me the amount of time with Jack on PP1 for Dougie and Luke in 24/25.

All I see in your post is that the difference in GF/60 - GA/60 for each which is about 2G/60, or exactly 6 more goals over the course of the entire season for Dougie. Granted he missed some time, so lets make it 8 more goals over the course of the season.

This of course is not even taking into account that Luke is 21 years old and getting better and Dougie is on the downside of his career.

Once again, you keep trying to show how great Dougie is. I love Dougie. It's just the fact we need money for other positions, and Dougie is the logical spot on D given he is slowing down and costs a lot. For what it is worth, I'd like to move Haula and Palat too but Dougie holds more value.

"Who said I was bringing in 1 bottom six player with Dougie's $9M? $9M should get you around 35 goals for two players, and if you can move Haula or Palat, even better."

This is such awful logic.
A) it ignores the minutes those forwards are replacing and the goals lost from there.
B) it ignores the 5v5 impact dougie has on offense (hint: it's pretty massive).
C) it ignores how many goals they would give up.

When you sign a player you don't just add his goal total to your goal differential lmao.

Connor McDavid (and his line) had the best expected goal differential in hockey at +25 for the year. (and that's in about as many minutes as your bottom 6 COMBINED).

FYI here are the metrics.

Just Luke+Jack: 10.27
Just Luke: 7.71
Just Dougie+Jack: 12.89
Just Dougie: 10.41

Dougie WITHOUT Jack outperforms Luke WITH Jack

And as you can see from that bottom one (with none of them), It's not just the PP1 minutes you're hurting. You also then have a PP2 that provides basically nothing.

For example we scored 8 goals in the first 20 games with dougie and the PP2 he was running in 23-24. We then scored an abysmal 2 goals from our PP2 for the remaining 62 games of the year.

 

[My3Sons]

"Who said I was bringing in 1 bottom six player with Dougie's $9M? $9M should get you around 35 goals for two players, and if you can move Haula or Palat, even better."

This is such awful logic.
A) it ignores the minutes those forwards are replacing and the goals lost from there.
B) it ignores the 5v5 impact dougie has on offense (hint: it's pretty massive).
C) it ignores how many goals they would give up.

When you sign a player you don't just add his goal total to your goal differential lmao.

Connor McDavid (and his line) had the best expected goal differential in hockey at +25 for the year. (and that's in about as many minutes as your bottom 6 COMBINED).

FYI here are the metrics.
View attachment 1023765
Just Luke+Jack: 10.27
Just Luke: 7.71
Just Dougie+Jack: 12.89
Just Dougie: 10.41

Dougie WITHOUT Jack outperforms Luke WITH Jack

And as you can see from that bottom one (with none of them), It's not just the PP1 minutes you're hurting. You also then have a PP2 that provides basically nothing.

For example we scored 8 goals in the first 20 games with dougie and the PP2 he was running in 23-24. We then scored an abysmal 2 goals from our PP2 for the remaining 62 games of the year.

A) All men have two legs
B)Socrates has two legs
C) therefore all men are Socrates

Now that’s some bad logic

 

[dgibb10]

Spare me the bullshit? Are you for real?
Do you somehow think Knies is not good .because he is gonna get paid. Any team would kill for this player

Nobody is saying matthew knies isn't good.


He is a complimentary top 6 guy at a cost controlled rate. It's exactly what you need alongside your stars doing the heavy lifting. He is not some gamebreaker.

The matthews-marner line would still dominate if he wasn't there. He is good enough to hang with them, which is all you need there.

It, however is not a slot you want to be wasting a bunch of assets on for minimal gains. If your 2 stars NEED a highly expensive 3rd guy to dominate their minutes, then it's time to evaluate your stars. If Hughes, Bratt, Meier, and Hischier are what we think they are, why are we so worried about the 3rd guy on their line?

The top 6 already heavily win their minutes with guys who, to quote you, "are 3rd liners". Now, we've tried plenty of combos with "better" guys of various talent levels. It hasn't made much of an impact. So why worry about who that 3rd guy is. Now, if we had a struggling PP that needed improvement, finding an extra helper there would make sense. But we don't.

The bottom 6 is the problem. So fix the bottom 6 and stop worrying about the 3rd winger on the 2 lines that already have 2 puck dominant players each on them.

 

[HersheyBob27]

Oh is this some stupid point about #GRIT and #POWERFORWARD.

Spare me the bullshit.

He's a 30-30 guy playing PP1 and alongside Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. (and that's with a 19% shooting%).

Yes, guys like Knies are INVALUABLE to a cup run. ELCs/RFAs who can be complimentary pieces while being paid less than their value.

Bunting was doing the exact same thing.

But yes, if he shoots 19% for his career, that is VERY hard to find. I'm not sure he will tho

I truly can’t believe you mentioned bunting in the same phrase as knies. Bunting is a lightweight. How far has he ever gone in the playoffs? And you have trouble understanding a high shooting %? Perhaps it is because he is always around the hoop like shaq. Do you really no understand that

 

[dgibb10]

I truly can’t believe you mentioned bunting in the same phrase as knies. Bunting is a lightweight. How far has he ever gone in the playoffs? And you have trouble understanding a high shooting %? Perhaps it is because he is always around the hoop like shaq. Do you really no understand that

Oh god it's one of these arguments.

Did Knies win a cup and I missed it??

 

[devilsfan950003]

He have been good but you can't trade him when he is cooked. If someone takes him in summer so trade him. Because of his 21 team no trade list it's not certain that any of those 10 teams will agree to take him even for free.

Imagine if we could not sign Quinn after 2 years because we have still Hamilton with his 9 million contract.

I see no reason to trade for Quinn. He's a UFA in two seasons. Need to free up cap space, not trade assets.

 

[devilsfan950003]

Tatar is UFA. I don't expect him to be back unless it's at a discount of his current deal.

He's fine on the 4th line. He's making like $1.8 million this season. Will he come down to $1 million?

 

[HersheyBob27]

Nobody is saying matthew knies isn't good.


He is a complimentary top 6 guy at a cost controlled rate. It's exactly what you need alongside your stars doing the heavy lifting. He is not some gamebreaker.

The matthews-marner line would still dominate if he wasn't there. He is good enough to hang with them, which is all you need there.

It, however is not a slot you want to be wasting a bunch of assets on for minimal gains. If your 2 stars NEED a highly expensive 3rd guy to dominate their minutes, then it's time to evaluate your stars. If Hughes, Bratt, Meier, and Hischier are what we think they are, why are we so worried about the 3rd guy on their line?

The top 6 already heavily win their minutes with guys who, to quote you, "are 3rd liners". Now, we've tried plenty of combos with "better" guys of various talent levels. It hasn't made much of an impact. So why worry about who that 3rd guy is. Now, if we had a struggling PP that needed improvement, finding an extra helper there would make sense. But we don't.

The bottom 6 is the problem. So fix the bottom 6 and stop worrying about the 3rd winger on the 2 lines that already have 2 puck dominant players each on them.

You need 3 good players for a line to dominate. The leafs are a really good team. I think they could win this year. I get the sense you are a calculater guy who has it all figured out. We have nobody like mathew knies hence the problem. And the bottom six is not the problem with the devils. The fourth line is fine. The third line is a mess

 

[HersheyBob27]

Oh god it's one of these arguments.

Did Knies win a cup and I missed it??

Just wait 6 weeks it might happen

 

[dgibb10]

Just wait 6 weeks it might happen

And if it does, it will be on the backs of the leafs finally mitigating the high cap hits from their big 4 by having the remaining pieces on those line both under a million dollars and as complimentary pieces. (allowing them to have depth and defense) Let the superstars be superstars.


But I'm sure you will learn the exact wrong lesson from it.

 

[dgibb10]

You need 3 good players for a line to dominate. The leafs are a really good team. I think they could win this year. I get the sense you are a calculater guy who has it all figured out. We have nobody like mathew knies hence the problem. And the bottom six is not the problem with the devils. The fourth line is fine. The third line is a mess

Surely the leafs second line employing Pontus Holmberg/Bobby McMann is doing terrible right?