Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - playoff edition

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Blues scored 7 goals last night. Folks, there is rehab for advanced analytics. Step one is admitting your addicted to dashboards.

are you okay?

 

[NjDevsRR]

Blues scored 7 goals last night. Folks, there is rehab for advanced analytics. Step one is admitting your addicted to dashboards.

Hellebyuck was trash

 

[kerrabria]

Offseason question for you guys: What's the deal with all of your defensemen? Feels like you have 9 guys who would ideally be on the middle pair.
Trading for Hughes opens up even more tetris, but for now, what's the status and plan for all of:

Hamilton
Siegenthaler
Pesce
Dillon
Hughes
Kovacevic
Casey
Nemec
Silayev

 

[TrufleShufle]

Offseason question for you guys: What's the deal with all of your defensemen? Feels like you have 9 guys who would ideally be on the middle pair.
Trading for Hughes opens up even more tetris, but for now, what's the status and plan for all of:

Hamilton
Siegenthaler
Pesce
Dillon
Hughes
Kovacevic
Casey
Nemec
Silayev

Stay away, they're ours.

 

[kerrabria]

Like, my very limited understanding/best guess would be:

Hamilton - middle pair guy you'd try to trade ASAP
Siegenthaler - top 4 guy you may trade but would rather not
Pesce - middle pair guy who you'd want to keep, and NTC may require that
Dillon - bottom 4 guy who should be first out the door, but NTC prevents it
Hughes - ideally would play middle pair with Pesce, but roster tetris makes that difficult
Kovecevic - same as Dillon
Casey - should be getting bottom pair minutes but there's no room unless a trade
Nemec - same as Casey
Silayev - trade chip

 

[Cheddabombs]

Offseason question for you guys: What's the deal with all of your defensemen? Feels like you have 9 guys who would ideally be on the middle pair.
Trading for Hughes opens up even more tetris, but for now, what's the status and plan for all of:

Hamilton
Siegenthaler
Pesce
Dillon
Hughes
Kovacevic
Casey
Nemec
Silayev

I think we could probably use a few more. Maybe go with 12 defensemen 6 forwards next year, really shake things up.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Like, my very limited understanding/best guess would be:

Hamilton - middle pair guy you'd try to trade ASAP
Siegenthaler - top 4 guy you may trade but would rather not
Pesce - middle pair guy who you'd want to keep, and NTC may require that
Dillon - bottom 4 guy who should be first out the door, but NTC prevents it
Hughes - ideally would play middle pair with Pesce, but roster tetris makes that difficult
Kovecevic - same as Dillon
Casey - should be getting bottom pair minutes but there's no room unless a trade
Nemec - same as Casey
Silayev - trade chip

My take

Hamilton - 10 team trade list, might trade unretained for future considerations cause of his cap hit. I think the team will explore the market with retention this offseason

Siegenthaler - Unlikely to the point it's not worth hypothesizing

Pesce - Unlikely

Dillon - Unlikely

Hughes - 0% chance

Kovacevic - Unlikely

Casey - Would only go in an overpayment by NJ to fill a roster hole

Nemec - Seems very likely to be traded this offseason for forward help unless the GM gets fired.

Silayev - Would only go in an overpayment by NJ to fill a roster hole

 

[kerrabria]

My take

Hamilton - 10 team trade list, might trade unretained for future considerations cause of his cap hit. I think the team will explore the market with retention this offseason

Siegenthaler - Unlikely to the point it's not worth hypothesizing

Pesce - Unlikely

Dillon - Unlikely

Hughes - 0% chance

Kovacevic - Unlikely

Casey - Would only go in an overpayment by NJ to fill a roster hole

Nemec - Seems very likely to be traded this offseason for forward help unless the GM gets fired.

Silayev - Would only go in an overpayment by NJ to fill a roster hole

So then what's the roster tetris?
Seems like no matter what, you guys will have a weak top pair and NHL-caliber guys in the press box. Or am I wrong?

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

So then what's the roster tetris?
Seems like no matter what, you guys will have a weak top pair and NHL-caliber guys in the press box. Or am I wrong?

I think Nemec is gone, Casey is the odd man out on paper

Dillon-Hamilton
Hughes - Pesce
Seigenthaler - Kovacevic
Veteran - Casey

The issue is this defense can't generate enough offense especially if Casey is in the AHL, making trading Hamilton hard to swallow.

 

[kerrabria]

I think Nemec is gone, Casey is the odd man out on paper

Dillon-Hamilton
Hughes - Pesce
Seigenthaler - Kovacevic
Veteran - Casey

The issue is this defense can't generate enough offense especially if Casey is in the AHL, making trading Hamilton hard to swallow.

Is Dillon-Hamilton a good enough top pair for a playoff team? Like is roster tetris really not an issue as much as getting more offense out of the group?

Also, very interesting that a number 2 overall pick who has developed on schedule (even if it was a weak draft) is already on the outs after three seasons.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Is Dillon-Hamilton a good enough top pair for a playoff team? Like is roster tetris really not an issue as much as getting more offense out of the group?

The devils have been great at preventing goals cause of those defensive pairs, I think the team cares about even strength pairs + special team roles more so than "top pair needs to be incredible." Like Siegenthaler has a role and excels in it even if he's not a "top pair" dman, Luke Hughes will likely excel in his PP role next year, etc.

Hamilton's the odd man out cause of his cap hit + Hughes is looking to take over his PP role. It's a situation where I wouldn't be shocked if he's traded (this board has talked about this possibility ALL YEAR) but his limited NTC and cap hit also makes that hard to do.

 

[kerrabria]

The devils have been great at preventing goals cause of those defensive pairs, I think the team cares about even strength pairs + special team roles more so than "top pair needs to be incredible." Like Siegenthaler has a role and excels in it even if he's not a "top pair" dman, Luke Hughes will likely excel in his PP role next year, etc.

Hamilton's the odd man out cause of his cap hit + Hughes is looking to take over his PP role. It's a situation where I wouldn't be shocked if he's traded (this board has talked about this possibility ALL YEAR) but his limited NTC and cap hit also makes that hard to do.

thank you for the insight.
i haven't watched the devils nearly enough to comment on whether Hamilton is a fit on the Panthers, but if we can't get Ekblad on a team-friendly deal, I'd expect a call from Zito.

 

[My3Sons]

Like, my very limited understanding/best guess would be:

Hamilton - middle pair guy you'd try to trade ASAP
Siegenthaler - top 4 guy you may trade but would rather not
Pesce - middle pair guy who you'd want to keep, and NTC may require that
Dillon - bottom 4 guy who should be first out the door, but NTC prevents it
Hughes - ideally would play middle pair with Pesce, but roster tetris makes that difficult
Kovecevic - same as Dillon
Casey - should be getting bottom pair minutes but there's no room unless a trade
Nemec - same as Casey
Silayev - trade chip

I’m skeptical that Silayev slots as a trade chip. Siegenthaler is a bit up and down but when healthy and on his game is as good as any shutdown guy not named Slavin. Kovacevic is a perfect foil for him. When NJ was playing well Luke - Pesce and Siegs - Kovacevic were the top four. Dillon performed a necessary function for the team early on. He was always willing to fight when the team had to change that perception.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

thank you for the insight.
i haven't watched the devils nearly enough to comment on whether Hamilton is a fit on the Panthers, but if we can't get Ekblad on a team-friendly deal, I'd expect a call from Zito.

Yeah I guess to answer your initial question more cleanly, the roster tetris is one of Hamilton/Nemec is gonna be traded this offseason most likely. That became clear after Kovacevic signed an extension at the deadline.

Hamilton to FLA makes a lot of sense but it's not clear how willing NJ is to retain and what that gets them. Trading Nemec would be an admission of failure so that's also something the FO likely doesn't want to do, but both markets will be explored.

 

[theoptimist]

thank you for the insight.
i haven't watched the devils nearly enough to comment on whether Hamilton is a fit on the Panthers, but if we can't get Ekblad on a team-friendly deal, I'd expect a call from Zito.

No no no, please don’t let Zito call Tom Fitzgerald. No no no.

 

[Brodeur]

Offseason question for you guys: What's the deal with all of your defensemen? Feels like you have 9 guys who would ideally be on the middle pair.
Trading for Hughes opens up even more tetris, but for now, what's the status and plan for all of:

Hamilton
Siegenthaler
Pesce
Dillon
Hughes
Kovacevic
Casey
Nemec
Silayev

Retained: Hughes-Siegenthaler-Dillon-Kovacevic
Kick the tires on the trade market, one may have to go: Hamilton-Nemec-Casey
See you when we see you: Silayev

I haven't kept close tabs on Silayev's KHL contract situation, but I thought he was signed through at least next season. Dillon is more or less keeping that spot warm. I don't think Quinn is in the cards next season, so we probably don't need to worry about that. Casey still has AHL eligibility next season. We'll see if he'd be unhappy spending another year down there in case we didn't carve out an NHL spot for him.

 

[Guttersniped]

Offseason question for you guys: What's the deal with all of your defensemen? Feels like you have 9 guys who would ideally be on the middle pair.
Trading for Hughes opens up even more tetris, but for now, what's the status and plan for all of:

Hamilton
Siegenthaler
Pesce
Dillon
Hughes
Kovacevic
Casey
Nemec
Silayev

Like, my very limited understanding/best guess would be:

Hamilton - middle pair guy you'd try to trade ASAP
Siegenthaler - top 4 guy you may trade but would rather not
Pesce - middle pair guy who you'd want to keep, and NTC may require that
Dillon - bottom 4 guy who should be first out the door, but NTC prevents it
Hughes - ideally would play middle pair with Pesce, but roster tetris makes that difficult
Kovecevic - same as Dillon
Casey - should be getting bottom pair minutes but there's no room unless a trade
Nemec - same as Casey
Silayev - trade chip

So then what's the roster tetris?
Seems like no matter what, you guys will have a weak top pair and NHL-caliber guys in the press box. Or am I wrong?

I agree that our defense currently suffers from a lack of elite defensemen. However Luke/Pesce had a phenomenal elite run for a couple of months earlier this year. It’s reasonable to hope that a 21 year old defenseman can do that more consistently in the future.

Kovacevic and Siegenthaler were a stellar shutdown pair this season, until the latter’s injury. The team obviously believes that will continue since they extended Kovy.

Dougie and Dillon struggled early, presumably in part because Dougie was out for most of last season. However they did start to cook offensively in the 2nd half of the season.

Unfortunately Dougie/Dillon started cooking at the same time Luke/Pesce dipped, and then we lost Dougie for a month and half in early March. (The season didn’t go all that great for us lol.)

Our defensive depth is nice but we’ll definitely be overspending on defense if Luke gets a long term deal. That will make fixing our forward depth/scoring way more difficult in the short term.

The only solution is shipping off Hamilton sooner than later, though that will hurt us offensively.

The Dillon contract sucked from day one but we’re presumably stuck with him for now.

Silayev has another year on his KHL deal, he’ll be coming in as Dillon’s deal winds down.

Don’t see keeping both Nemec and Casey, so one of them is the trade chip.

 

[Guttersniped]

thank you for the insight.
i haven't watched the devils nearly enough to comment on whether Hamilton is a fit on the Panthers, but if we can't get Ekblad on a team-friendly deal, I'd expect a call from Zito.

Actually I’ve had Florida as a potential trade partner for Hamilton for a while.

I assumed Zito would move on from Ekblad, mainly due to his injury history.

Maybe Rodrigues is part of the trade, I’m guessing Zito would squeeze Fitz for some salary retention.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I assumed Zito would move on from Ekblad, mainly due to his injury history.

Oh hed be a perfect devil

 

[Edmonton East]

Like, my very limited understanding/best guess would be:

Hamilton - middle pair guy you'd try to trade ASAP
Siegenthaler - top 4 guy you may trade but would rather not
Pesce - middle pair guy who you'd want to keep, and NTC may require that
Dillon - bottom 4 guy who should be first out the door, but NTC prevents it
Hughes - ideally would play middle pair with Pesce, but roster tetris makes that difficult
Kovecevic - same as Dillon
Casey - should be getting bottom pair minutes but there's no room unless a trade
Nemec - same as Casey
Silayev - trade chip

Great observations! You should apply to replace asshat Tom Fitzgerald as GM. Get in line and take a number.

Btw he just extended Kovacevic to an above market deal based on just 40 good games with Siegs and, more importantly, plays the only position of depth in the entire organization. Because the team is perfect and has no glaring needs apparently.

 

[dgibb10]

Like, my very limited understanding/best guess would be:

Hamilton - middle pair guy you'd try to trade ASAP ------------------------------- 2RD PP1 / Trade
Siegenthaler - top 4 guy you may trade but would rather not ----------------------2LD PK1
Pesce - middle pair guy who you'd want to keep, and NTC may require that ---------------------- 1RD PK1
Dillon - bottom 4 guy who should be first out the door, but NTC prevents it ---------------------- 3LD/7D PK2
Hughes - ideally would play middle pair with Pesce, but roster tetris makes that difficult ------------ 1LD PP2
Kovecevic - same as Dillon ----------------------- 3RD PK2
Casey - should be getting bottom pair minutes but there's no room unless a trade --------------------- AHL
Nemec - same as Casey -----------------------3RD/7D/Trade
Silayev - trade chip: ------------------------- KHL

If you want to assign "pairings" you can

But beyond special teams it's

Luke-Pesce-Siegs-Kovy-Hamilton as a top 5 rolled fairly even

Dillon as a clear number 6.

The sneaky option is

Luke-Kovy
Siegs-Hamilton
Pesce-Nemec

With Dillon as a 7, giving Pesce some extra shifts on the right side away from Nemec.

 

[JK3]

I like Silayev's skating and size but he just screams giant greanade handler that can't make a breakout pass.

 

[dgibb10]

Great observations! You should apply to replace asshat Tom Fitzgerald as GM. Get in line and take a number.

Btw he just extended Kovacevic to an above market deal based on just 40 good games with Siegs and, more importantly, plays the only position of depth in the entire organization. Because the team is perfect and has no glaring needs apparently.

What do you think the market is on RHD????

 

[dgibb10]

I wonder if you could do something like

Dillon+2nd --> Ross Colton

And then keep pesce on the left getting Nemec into the lineup

 

[Edmonton East]

What do you think the market is on RHD????

Not 3 X $4 and a full NMC until the final year for, as I've already said numerous times, a crazy small sample size and in a position of organizational strength on a team with many gaps to fill. Liked the initial Kovacevic move and he looked very good with Siegs. Unfortunately, he's been mediocre at best since Siegs went down. That doesn't warrant handing him a contract as if he was on the UFA market (and then the cherry on top of a NMC...which everyone here acts like doesn't matter...until it quickly does).

He should have been moved at the deadline for a 1st+ or forward prospect in this lost season, which he definitely would have gotten. He only should have been kept if he was willing to take a sweetheart of a deal or if they were moving Nemec at the deadline in a bigger move for a forward with term. Enjoy the pennies on the dollar Fitz gets when he inevitably moves one or both of Nemec and Casey this offseason. Yet another shit situation of Fitz' own doing.