Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - playoff edition

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

yeah Mitch Marner, known playoff performer and gritty player, is certainly what this team needs!

(I think the Marner playoff hate is overblown FYI)

 

[devilsblood]

If you asked me in December if we would be the worst team in the playoffs I would’ve laughed. Yet here we are.

Fix the depth and we’d be a good team imo.

It's 2 games. We had a terrible game 1. We played a good game last night.

 

[devilsblood]

go give marner a stupid contract. who cares if it makes our puppysh!t core poopy pants that he’s making more than they are. I have zero faith in fitz being able to trade for forwards, even less faith in this org being able to draft forwards. Go overpay him by $3m per year and figure it out.

yeah Mitch Marner, known playoff performer and gritty player, is certainly what this team needs!

(I think the Marner playoff hate is overblown FYI)

I assumed he was being sarcastic? "Figure it out" and all that.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I assumed he was being sarcastic? "Figure it out" and all that.

maybe, maybe not. You never know on this board.

and yea, "figure it out" applies to players that fit and players that we'd need. I don't think we need a $12m/year playmaking forward, but I guess you never know?

 

[devilsblood]

I would’ve totally believed we’d be the worst team in the playoffs if you removed Jack Hughes and half the defense. Is there a team that wouldn’t be true for? I genuinely don’t think I see one in the playoffs that would look at all dangerous in a similar circumstance.

Ya for all the other frustrations regarding the season, losing our top minute's eater/offensive player is going to cast a pall over our playoff prospects. Then do the same in game 2 with Luke.

Is it crazy to think we win game 2 with those guys? At which point we would now be sitting at 1-1 in the series.

 

[My3Sons]

Tbe salary cap is so easy to maneuver around these days. Any average GM can figure it out.

As far as next season (not to jump too far ahead but for me this doesn't change whether we are swept or come back and won in 6) the team has 12 signed forwards. There is absolutely no need for a shake up.



Tatar, Lazar, Bastian, Dowling and possibly Allen all let go via free agency.

Then this is your starting point before a single move.


Bratt-Hughes-Gritsyuk
Palat-Huschier-Meier
Haula-Glass-Mercer
Cotter-______-Noesen
MacDermid

Hughes-Pesce
Siegs-Kovacevic
Dullom-Hamilton
Dumolin

Markstrom
Daws

Luke will get a big contract. Nemec and Casey will be traded for forward help which will change up above. I do not see a huge splash in free agency as a necessity. I see trades more likely. Haula being waived is a possibility but I think they ride it out with him on his final contract year.

This assumes throwing Gritsyuk at the wolves will pan out for us.

I bring back Dumolin and have 7 defenseman.

I know I'm in the minority but with 5 signed and 6 soon to be signed Dmen through 2028, I think Both Casey and Nemec could grand we make Silayev our top prospect.

Wait, you have them moving out Hischier from the third line and bringing in Huschier for the second line? That's a big change. Not sure how it will go over in the locker room.

 

[MB3]

yeah Mitch Marner, known playoff performer and gritty player, is certainly what this team needs!

(I think the Marner playoff hate is overblown FYI)

do you actually think this team needs #grit?

this team has a total gulf of offensive talent outside of Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, and (maybe) Meier.

The team needs talent. Marner has been well over a point per game 7 seasons in a row. Do you know how many Devils have done that in team history? How about 6 seasons in a row? 5 seasons in a row?

(hint: it’s the same answer!)

 

[My3Sons]

I love Nico, but I haven't loved his 2 games thus far. I think, like many, that he has looked gassed at times. Even in game 1 there were times where it looked like he was dragging ass out there. We had a light schedule down the stretch and he was given a game off late in the reg season. But he's gassed in game 1 of the playoffs, wtf?!

But I am big on the "usage effect" so I took a look at his usage thus far.

He does lead the playoffs thus far in faceoffs taken, and with many of them vs a big guy like Staal that is taxing.

2nd in the league with 6:25 PK toi. Definitely taxing.

22nd in overall toi. This is about what I would expect from a top 2 way center.

His five 5v5 d-zone starts and 10 d-zone faceoffs are not especially high. But compared to Nate MacKinnon who has 12 O-zone starts, or Eichel's 11, Nico has just 4, so Nico is not getting the "easy" minutes the way some top guys are. Conversely Auston Matthews has just three o-zone starts and 8 d-zone starts. So Nico looks to be in the middle on this front in terms of this particular usage by teams top centers.


23 minutes 5v5, which is not a big deal, 80 something amongst fwd's, but again, 17 of those minutes are against Staal, who is a big guy and a possession beast, 16 of those minutes vs Slavin, another big guy, and another possession beast. And of Nico 5 d-zone starts, 4 have come against those two guys. And yet Nico has held his own possession wise (though less so in terms of shots where he is below water and is a -1 in terms of goals)

So I can't deny that Nico is playing tough minutes. And this is to be expected as he always is. Still, and I've thought this throughout the season. Nico needs better language. He is the captain. He is the leader of this team. He needs to break away from the "hockey is painful" look that has become his trademark. I think it influences the team, and I think it has even influenced his game thus far.

Anyways I don't mean to come down on Nico, but with this series still within reach, I see this as a prime opportunity to change, to some extent, this aspect of his persona. Playoff hockey is different and I think this is where guys really learn to win in the this league. And I think this is an area where Nico needs to adjust. Do I really expect it to change on dime? No not really, but I would like to see Nico enjoy the game more, I just don't see it as healthy for the game to be so grueling.

Nico has had the entire weight of the team put on his shoulders by Keefe. Even when Jack was playing, Keefe said that Nico has the hardest job in hockey. They really need to find a reliable defensive center for the fourth line that can take face-offs and play defense well enough to move some minutes around for Hischier. He's a mid sized player constantly being asked to take on the opposition's biggest and best and win those minutes and outscore them and then start much of the time in the defensive zone. I'm sure seeing the roster crumble around him is taxing. I'm not sure about the Nico face. We aren't in the locker room so we cannot be sure if the other guys notice it or care one way or the other. I will say that a long time ago, Denis Potvin wrote a book. I read it as a child. in it he complains that the Nico face propelled Bobby Clarke to be highly regarded because it gave the false impression he was trying really hard. I guess it's up to the individual to determine how that strikes them.

 

[Devs3cups]

It's 2 games. We had a terrible game 1. We played a good game last night.

I agree they played a good game last night, but overall the play from January on has been bad, like bottom of the league bad, even when fully healthy.

 

[devilsblood]

maybe, maybe not. You never know on this board.

and yea, "figure it out" applies to players that fit and players that we'd need. I don't think we need a $12m/year playmaking forward, but I guess you never know?

Kind of goes against what you were saying about "signing good players" but I think the point with good players and depth players alike is, sign these guys to reasonable contracts.

And Fitz has been pretty good in terms of signing in house guys to team friendly contracts. Bratt being the poster boy. Not only in terms of AAV, but also signing guys long term who are not even yet in their primes. Mercer is another guy.

Conversely, signing a 30 something Palat to a big 5 year deal? 3x4 to a 34 year old 3rd pairing guy in Dillon? Giving any type of term to Mac.

Hamilton doesn't look crazy expensive but signed into his mid 30's

Haula was probably too much for a year too many, again signing a guy until he is 35, though he was in house at the time.

Maybe the point is more about Fitz leveraging guys when we own that players rights as opposed to UFA's.

Anyways, I think Marner is a good player, and if we were somehow able to bring him in, it would enable us to either roll 3 very strong lines, or an extremely strong top line. But no way can you sign him to a $12mil deal. We probably couldn't even afford him to a Bratt type deal, but that is about where I would set the limit.

 

[Call Me Al]

Nico has had the entire weight of the team put on his shoulders by Keefe. Even when Jack was playing, Keefe said that Nico has the hardest job in hockey. They really need to find a reliable defensive center for the fourth line that can take face-offs and play defense well enough to move some minutes around for Hischier. He's a mid sized player constantly being asked to take on the opposition's biggest and best and win those minutes and outscore them and then start much of the time in the defensive zone. I'm sure seeing the roster crumble around him is taxing. I'm not sure about the Nico face. We aren't in the locker room so we cannot be sure if the other guys notice it or care one way or the other. I will say that a long time ago, Denis Potvin wrote a book. I read it as a child. in it he complains that the Nico face propelled Bobby Clarke to be highly regarded because it gave the false impression he was trying really hard. I guess it's up to the individual to determine how that strikes them.

yes - making nico our top defensive center has been good for our defense but absolutely terrible for our offense. It's incredible that he put up a career high in goals this year but imagine if he didn't have to line up against the other team's best players or take every important defensive draw

 

[Cheddabombs]

Palat, Haula, Dowling, Bastian, Sprong, Lazar, Tatar, MacDermid, Cholowski, Dillon. I would get rid of all of them this summer.

Then there are some fringe guys that I wouldn't mind if they stayed but also wouldn't mind if we cut ties with like Glass and Mercer.

Clean house!

 

[devilsblood]

I agree they played a good game last night, but overall the play from January on has been bad, like bottom of the league bad, even when fully healthy.

It has been. And part of that was with a healthy roster. But like in December when we didn't expect the play to fall off, yet it did, it is certainly possible that if healthy, team play would have picked back up again late in the season but we never got that opportunity.

 

[devilsblood]

Nico has had the entire weight of the team put on his shoulders by Keefe. Even when Jack was playing, Keefe said that Nico has the hardest job in hockey. They really need to find a reliable defensive center for the fourth line that can take face-offs and play defense well enough to move some minutes around for Hischier. He's a mid sized player constantly being asked to take on the opposition's biggest and best and win those minutes and outscore them and then start much of the time in the defensive zone. I'm sure seeing the roster crumble around him is taxing. I'm not sure about the Nico face. We aren't in the locker room so we cannot be sure if the other guys notice it or care one way or the other. I will say that a long time ago, Denis Potvin wrote a book. I read it as a child. in it he complains that the Nico face propelled Bobby Clarke to be highly regarded because it gave the false impression he was trying really hard. I guess it's up to the individual to determine how that strikes them.

I don't know how many teams have strong 4th line centers who can consistently play tough defensive minutes.

It was an under appreciated aspect of McLeod's game on this board.

I'm guessing most teams have quality 3rd liners who can play defensive minutes. Not sure if Glass is a guy who can consistently handle such duties.

That said, yeah, Nico is going to get tough minutes because he is a good defensive center, but it would probably be better if is was less difficult.

 

[Better Call Sal]

How much do we think one of these bad boys is going to cost?

 

[Edmonton East]

Idk what the answer is at this point with how impressively dipshit Tommy Fitz has boxed himself in with awful contracts, 20 NMCs of varying degrees, poor drafting/development, and continuing to light future assets on fire with mistimed moves or constant overpays...but I can tell you that if you actually want this team to contend next season (opening night and healthy):

1) Noesen can't be in the top 6
2) Gritsyuk can't be starting in the top 6. If he plays well and earns it, GREAT. But can't afford to rely on it when his game hasn't progressed since initial breakout and there is no player/prospect to fill gap if he fails.
3) Cody Glass can't be the 3C
4) Haula has to be on the 4th line or gone
5) Palat has to be off the team
6) Kovacevic needs to return to peak play with Siegs for an entire season or that contract is already a relative problem, especially considering the one area of org strength is RD
7) Mercer has to be on the 3rd line
8) A Center capable of playing up the lineup in the top 6 in a pinch needs to be added or top 6 W/C utility guy. Needs to be someone comfortable playing in front of the net and serviceable at the dot. Current lineup has no versatility

Bratt - Hischier - Meier (won't happen, but I continue to die on this hill. Plus, Bratt and Jack cannibalize each other)
IDK - Hughes - IDK
Noesen - Mercer - Gritsyuk (assumes Mercer can develop C attributes further and one of the IDKs above is a top 6 W/utility C)
Cotter - Glass - Bastian/Haula/don't care

Not really interested in arguing the lines, just spitballing. 1-8 need to happen tho somehow if this team wants to be serious.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

do you actually think this team needs #grit?

this team has a total gulf of offensive talent outside of Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, and (maybe) Meier.

The team needs talent. Marner has been well over a point per game 7 seasons in a row. Do you know how many Devils have done that in team history? How about 6 seasons in a row? 5 seasons in a row?

(hint: it’s the same answer!)

no, I think this team needs

1) to be able to stay healthy
2) another legitimate center (2C/3C tweener type)
3) at least one more gifted goal scoring threat

Marner is not really any of those things.

 

[Devs3cups]

It has been. And part of that was with a healthy roster. But like in December when we didn't expect the play to fall off, yet it did, it is certainly possible that if healthy, team play would have picked back up again late in the season but we never got that opportunity.

It’s possible, but it’s no guaranteed, and that bad play went on for a few months. Anyways, here’s to more depth on the roster.

 

[My3Sons]

no, I think this team needs

1) to be able to stay healthy
2) another legitimate center (2C/3C tweener type)
3) at least one more gifted goal scoring threat

Marner is not really any of those things.

No but he’s still a great player and would move the needle. Overall your plan is solid. Hopefully Grits can mesh with Jack and be a goal scoring threat.

 

[devilsblood]

Idk what the answer is at this point with how impressively dipshit Tommy Fitz has boxed himself in with awful contracts, 20 NMCs of varying degrees, poor drafting/development, and continuing to light future assets on fire with mistimed moves or constant overpays...but I can tell you that if you actually want this team to contend next season (opening night and healthy):

1) Noesen can't be in the top 6
2) Gritsyuk can't be starting in the top 6. If he plays well and earns it, GREAT. But can't afford to rely on it when his game hasn't progressed since initial breakout and there is no player/prospect to fill gap if he fails.
3) Cody Glass can't be the 3C
4) Haula has to be on the 4th line or gone
5) Palat has to be off the team
6) Kovacevic needs to return to peak play with Siegs for an entire season or that contract is already a relative problem, especially considering the one area of org strength is RD
7) Mercer has to be on the 3rd line
8) A Center capable of playing up the lineup in the top 6 in a pinch needs to be added or top 6 W/C utility guy. Needs to be someone comfortable playing in front of the net and serviceable at the dot. Current lineup has no versatility

Bratt - Hischier - Meier (won't happen, but I continue to die on this hill. Plus, Bratt and Jack cannibalize each other)
IDK - Hughes - IDK
Noesen - Mercer - Gritsyuk (assumes Mercer can develop C attributes further and one of the IDKs above is a top 6 W/utility C)
Cotter - Glass - Bastian/Haula/don't care

Not really interested in arguing the lines, just spitballing. 1-8 need to happen tho somehow if this team wants to be serious.

1)Noesen out of top 6 is fine
2)Gits can be in the top 6. He's 24, he has offensive ability. If he's not able to play in the top 6 I find that disappointing.
3)I'm OK with Glass as 3rd C.
4)Haula as a 4th liner makes sense.
5)Hard to defend anything Palat these days.
6)Kova played well in the last 20 or 30 games stretches. His possession numbers thus far in the playoffs are surprisingly very good. Though he is a -2 in terms of goals. Some of that is on an offense that doesn't score. I'd have to go back to the goals against to see where the blame lies. Overall I see this as a very good contract. He's big, he plays physical, he plays tough minutes, he puts up good numbers, he's in his prime, he's relatively cheap. Just don't see the issue.
7)They still play Mercer like he is a part of the core. I do think he needs to take a step up in terms of creating offense even if it is merely sog's. I think it's possible, perhaps with a rigorous offseason strength regiment.
8)I'd have to see an example of a 3rd line center who would make for an acceptable 2nd liner in a pinch. Sounds great on paper.

 

[Edmonton East]

2)Gits can be in the top 6. He's 24, he has offensive ability. If he's not able to play in the top 6 I find that disappointing.
3)I'm OK with Glass as 3rd C.

There's probably a better chance this is what happens in reality vs my demand letter. And I'm telling ya, zero chance that team contends so level set accordingly.

I couldn't disagree with you more about the Kovacevic contract given the Devs org and needs. And I praised the initial acquisition btw. So we'll just agree to disagree there.

 

[NJersey]

How much do we think one of these bad boys is going to cost?

View attachment 1020826

i saw 25$

 

[devilsblood]

There's probably a better chance this is what happens in reality vs my demand letter. And I'm telling ya, zero chance that team contends so level set accordingly.

I couldn't disagree with you more about the Kovacevic contract given the Devs org and needs. And I praised the initial acquisition btw. So we'll just agree to disagree there.

Zero is an awfully low probability.

We'll disagree on that one as well.

 

[MB3]

no, I think this team needs

1) to be able to stay healthy
2) another legitimate center (2C/3C tweener type)
3) at least one more gifted goal scoring threat

Marner is not really any of those things.

are there tons of 2Cs and gifted scoring threats available in free agency that I am missing?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

are there tons of 2Cs and gifted scoring threats available in free agency that I am missing?

There are some

is free agency the only way to acquire players?