Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[My3Sons]

The Dumoulin trade will rankle me if it was just for a handful of games to eke out a season where we fell off the rails and then lost 3 of our top 5 players to injury.

A second rounder plus Herman Traff who looked like a pretty good prospect (better than Pikkarainen) is a lot to pay for essentially nothing.

You aren't wrong, but they really needed to do something at left defense. Long term it likely isn't crippling. Given the slim margin to even make the playoffs they needed all the help they could get.

 

[JrFischer54]

We’re not remotely healthy now, and weren’t at the trade deadline, so that hypothetical doesn’t matter.

i'm saying going forward. next year if the team is healthy at minimum go all in and do trade whatever you have to. health is a rarity with this team

 

[JrFischer54]

The Dumoulin trade will rankle me if it was just for a handful of games to eke out a season where we fell off the rails and then lost 3 of our top 5 players to injury.

A second rounder plus Herman Traff who looked like a pretty good prospect (better than Pikkarainen) is a lot to pay for essentially nothing.

thats why they play the games to see what happens.


even if the pick and prospect turn into something which is an insane long shot it doesn't mean they would've had the same effect here.

 

[NJDfan86]

Those guys all went for way more than Dumo.

Norris is hurt so who knows how he would play but I like him.

Cozens has some counting stats but I believe fans already worry his contract his an anchor that they’re unhappy to have.

Novak hasn’t done anything in the last 2 years to suggest he’s an impact player right now.

Coyle is 33 and only has 1 more year on his contract so I’m not sure he would be considered a long term move.

————

I think Glass has a good argument that he’s been the second best trade of these 5 players and is most likely to provide good value to their current team going forward.

1) I never said the players I would have traded for cost the same or less, this is second time you have not understood what I am saying - I would have been happy to repurpose those picks, add additional draft capital, and even move roster players if it meant a true upgrade.

2) Cozens and Novak are easily top 6 players on this current roster so not surer why we would hand wave them away.

3) Coyle was just an example of a forward I would have used comparable assets that we paid for Doom - Guttersniped accurately pointed out that Boston got Mittlestad there so probably not comparable value. Still, I'd take Tanev in that case.

4) Glass is fine? You are kinda making my point about Fitz's inability to help this team when we are thrilled with Cody Glass (who is fine).

 

[Devils731]

1) I never said the players I would have traded for cost the same or less, this is second time you have not understood what I am saying - I would have been happy to repurpose those picks, add additional draft capital, and even move roster players if it meant a true upgrade.

2) Cozens and Novak are easily top 6 players on this current roster so not surer why we would hand wave them away.

3) Coyle was just an example of a forward I would have used comparable assets that we paid for Doom - Guttersniped accurately pointed out that Boston got Mittlestad there so probably not comparable value. Still, I'd take Tanev in that case.

4) Glass is fine? You are kinda making my point about Fitz's inability to help this team when we are thrilled with Cody Glass (who is fine).

Those guys aren’t a big upgrade that were worth what needed to be given and they almost all got significantly more than the Dumo parts. If you factor in the current team parts you had to give up to get some of those guys, I struggle to see how those trades are slam dunk helpful now and in the future.

Novak at forward with a 3rd defensive pairing that could have been something like Casey/Nemecr-Cholo would have been way worse than Casey/Nemec-Dumo. The Devils needed to be able to put at least 1 NHL quality guy on the 3rd pairing. There is no way they win a series with no Jack Hughes and a 3rd pairing of 2 guys that struggle play NHL defense.

I think you’re way under shooting what “give up more” means.

If the Devils wanted Cozens then they probably need to move Mercer in that trade. Disregard that Cozens may actually be a net negative player to his contract right now, but are the Devils making any meaningful difference if they trade one underperforming forward for a different one? I think not.

————-

I can always say “I would spend anything to make this years team better” but all of these trades likely make next year’s team and the year after’s team worse. That doesn’t make sense when the next 2 years Devils should be significantly stronger heading into the playoffs than this years team.

This years team with Cozens or Novak is still an underdog against Carolina(and I think a bigger underdog than now if it was Cozens and no Dumo). I’m glad the team didn’t pay big amounts and hurt next years team just to stay an underdog this year.

 

[NJDfan86]

I would really also like to go back to the "Now is not the time argument" because, frankly, I don't get why Fitz wouldn't "go for it" unless our definitions of "go for it" were wildly different.

1) The Devils knew the medical prognosis better than we did - they knew that we had no Jack/Jonas and Dougie was a playoff only option, and that only matters if the Devils make the playoffs.

2)The Devils had incredible cap flexibility by having two of their highest paid players on LTIR, usually big trades happen in the offseason for cap flexibility purposes but the Devils could have taken on anyones salary they wanted and not have to worry about it until next year.

3) for the first time in years the cap was increasing and we had visibility to what the numbers would be. Every player currently locked into a contract you know precisely how much of the cap they will take up, and since they were signed in a lower cap environment the deal will naturally be a better value than any signed starting this offseason.

4) Making the playoffs matter - if the Devils collapsed we have a front office in deep and a first year head coach who oversaw an epic collapse. Maybe this means the FO is more secure than we believe, but the drumbeat of the offseason can change a lot.

5) All of the Devils top players are under contract, and the one who needs a new one happens to have his brother playing on the team.

6) Unlike most contenders we have assets like Nemec.

All of these reasons point to why Fitz should have more aggressive - my hope is that he is not sitting on his hands waiting for Quinn to drop into his lap because that is a dangerous strategy.

 

[Devils731]

6) Unlike most contenders we have assets like Nemec.

That’s the kind of thought that seems crazy.

What do you want to trade Nemec for? Cozens bad contract, decreasing production, and poor metrics or 1.5 years of Coyle and his middle 6 value?

If Nemec works out even moderately and is a middle pairing defenseman, aren’t you then upset you traded him in a deal for one of the above guys and lost on at least 5 years of value? And you did that just to be underdogs in round 1 of 1 playoff year anyway?

 

[NJDfan86]

Those guys aren’t a big upgrade that were worth what needed to be given and they almost all got significantly more than the Dumo parts. If you factor in the current team parts you had to give up to get some of those guys, I struggle to see how those trades are slam dunk helpful now and in the future.

Novak at forward with a 3rd defensive pairing that could have been something like Casey/Nemecr-Cholo would have been way worse than Casey/Nemec-Dumo. The Devils needed to be able to put at least 1 NHL quality guy on the 3rd pairing. There is no way they win a series with no Jack Hughes and a 3rd pairing of 2 guys that struggle play NHL defense.

I think you’re way under shooting what “give up more” means.

If the Devils wanted Cozens then they probably need to move Mercer in that trade. Disregard that Cozens may actually be a net negative player to his contract right now, but are the Devils making any meaningful difference if they trade one underperforming forward for a different one? I think not.

————-

I can always say “I would spend anything to make this years team better” but all of these trades likely make next year’s team and the year after’s team worse. That doesn’t make sense when the next 2 years Devils should be significantly stronger heading into the playoffs than this years team.

This years team with Cozens or Novak is still an underdog against Carolina(and I think a bigger underdog than now if it was Cozens and no Dumo). I’m glad the team didn’t pay big amounts and hurt next years team just to stay an underdog this year.

Well Doom won't even be here next season so I fail to see how the base logic even working here, other than assuming that any forward we traded for would faceplant here and become a liability.

Being an underdog, but having that player come back is better IMO.

 

[NJDfan86]

That’s the kind of thought that seems crazy.

What do you want to trade Nemec for? Cozens bad contract, decreasing production, and poor metrics or 1.5 years of Coyle and his middle 6 value?

If Nemec works out even moderately and is a middle pairing defenseman, aren’t you then upset you traded him in a deal for one of the above guys and lost on at least 5 years of value? And you did that just to be underdogs in round 1 of 1 playoff year anyway?

You need to work on your reading comprehension. Go back, read
2)The Devils had incredible cap flexibility by having two of their highest paid players on LTIR, usually big trades happen in the offseason for cap flexibility purposes but the Devils could have taken on anyones salary they wanted and not have to worry about it until next year."

Now connect that to me saying I would trade Nemec for Cozens? Other than having advocated for trading for Cozens and pointing out most contenders don't have #2 overall picks that aren't playing a key role, there was no other connection.

 

[Guttersniped]

Tanev's underlyings look pretty damn good to me right now when our bottom 6 LW's are Dowling and Foote. Drew O'conner was included in the Petterson deal but probably could have been had for a similar price but we waited too long.

Tanev’s underlying numbers haven’t been good this season.




Tanev averaged 13:45 on Seattle (10th among forwards in their first 63 GP) and he’s currently averaging 10:48 on Winnipeg (11th among forwards in the their last 18 GP).

Not saying Tanev wouldn’t be useful but you can’t convince me he would’ve been more useful than Dumoulin.

O’Connor was traded on Jan 31st, and despite all their injuries, he’s is playing on Vancouver’s 4th line while making 2.5m.

Maybe O’Connor bounces back from the down season he had this year, and is a solid depth forward over the next two years, but I don’t particularly care that we missed out on him.

 

[Devils731]

Dude, you need to work on your reading comprehension. Go back, read the line about "we have the cap space to take on any contract in the NHL" and connect that to me saying I would trade Nemec for Cozens?

So who were you trading Nemec for?

Sorry I try to fill in the gaps as you ping-pong around your thoughts.

I’m trying to address what you’re saying but you keep just saying “that’s not what I mean”. I’m not sure anyone knows what you mean other than that you would have spent at this deadline, which I think I fundamentally don’t get why you would think that.

You haven’t addressed how the Devils are in the best spot possible despite all their injuries; which is really where most thoughts are starting, I believe. How is it “go for it” time when you may have been missing 3 of your top players?

I guess you can address who and how trading Nemec this year makes the Devils better enough this year to risk the pain of losing Nemec over the next 5 or 6. What kind of Nemec trade makes sense?

 

[Devils731]

bookmark this i'll see you when we are old/er

When would it make sense to revisit?

Would you agree nobody playing in the league today has a chance?

 

[NJDfan86]

So who were you trading Nemec for?

Sorry I try to fill in the gaps as you ping-pong around your thoughts.

I’m trying to address what you’re saying but you keep just saying “that’s not what I mean”. I’m not sure anyone knows what you mean other than that you would have spent at this deadline, which I think I fundamentally don’t get why you would think that.

You haven’t addressed how the Devils are in the best spot possible despite all their injuries; which is really where most thoughts are starting, I believe. How is it “go for it” time when you may have been missing 3 of your top players?

I guess you can address who and how trading Nemec this year makes the Devils better enough this year to risk the pain of losing Nemec over the next 5 or 6. What kind of Nemec trade makes sense?

I did address it - 6 points up above. You are combining two critiques I made about Fitzgerald's deadline which were:
- He wasn't aggressive enough period
- The players he did target weren't very inspiring.

As for Nemec - I'd trade some upside for certainty now, would need to be a top 2 center or wing with ~3-4 years of control

 

[Devils731]

I did address it - 6 points up above.

1) The Devils knew the medical prognosis better than we did - they knew that we had no Jack/Jonas and Dougie was a playoff only option, and that only matters if the Devils make the playoffs.

So you think the Devils should go for it now because, point 1, they knew they were without their top center, top defender, and possibly top offensive defenseman? That’s literally the biggest reason not to go for it. The team is already lacking tons of talent that they can’t replace this year and don’t have enough remaining talent to win without a bunch of good bounces anyway.

2)The Devils had incredible cap flexibility by having two of their highest paid players on LTIR, usually big trades happen in the offseason for cap flexibility purposes but the Devils could have taken on anyones salary they wanted and not have to worry about it until next year.

Because of point 1, making next years cap messier is a bad idea. Use the cap growth to strengthen next year, not supplement this year with all the injuries and create problems next year.

3) for the first time in years the cap was increasing and we had visibility to what the numbers would be. Every player currently locked into a contract you know precisely how much of the cap they will take up, and since they were signed in a lower cap environment the deal will naturally be a better value than any signed starting this offseason.

This is a non-point, it’s true for everyone and everyone values the players with this in mind.

4) Making the playoffs matter - if the Devils collapsed we have a front office in deep and a first year head coach who oversaw an epic collapse. Maybe this means the FO is more secure than we believe, but the drumbeat of the offseason can change a lot.

Non-point. The Devils did make the playoffs.

Devils made the playoffs and were never really at risk of not making the playoffs. They made the playoffs in the spot they’ve been most likely to end in for months. They didn’t have to gamble a big future sacrifice to supplement today and get in.

5) All of the Devils top players are under contract, and the one who needs a new one happens to have his brother playing on the team.

Non-point. This doesn’t address trading future items to help this years team.

As for Nemec - I'd trade some upside for certainty now, would need to be a top 2 center or wing with ~3-4 years of control

Like who? Cozens doesn’t fit this definition to you but you also think he would have been impactful?

————-

Just for me, looking at your list, I personally still don’t see how you justify going for it this year or that that Devils are in a great spot to do so.

Assuming your most compelling point is #1, you have it backwards. The injuries explain why not to go for it, not a reason to go for it.

 

[NJDfan86]

So you think the Devils should go for it now because, point 1, they knew they were without their top center, top defender, and possibly top offensive defenseman? That’s literally the biggest reason not to go for it. The team is already lacking tons of talent that they can’t replace this year and don’t have enough remaining talent to win without a bunch of good bounces anyway

Yes - they were in the playoffs quite comfortably by the time those injuries happened and they knew that they needed to replace our best offensive forward and defenseman, as well as our best defensive defenseman. If you added a top forward (or even a decent one) maybe we wouldn't have backed into a playoff spot. I doubt Fitz would have traded for Markstrom if he wasn't counting on 2 years of playoffs.

[Because of point 1, making next years cap messier is a bad idea. Use the cap growth to strengthen next year, not supplement this year with all the injuries and create problems next year.]

What? we are 13m under next year with only Luke needing a real deal - they could easily manage that, especially as we know that Palat cannot be here next year.

This is a non-point, it’s true for everyone and everyone values the players with this in mind.

The variables are everyone still has different priorities, others teams cap space isn't is clean as ours - plenty of opportunity.

Non-point. The Devils did make the playoffs. Devils made the playoffs and were never really at risk of not making the playoffs. They made the playoffs in the spot they’ve been most likely to end in for months. They didn’t have to gamble a big future sacrifice to supplement today and get in.

Hilarious hindsight - we made it by the skin of our teeth after being in control most of the year. Since we are discussing Fitz's judgement AT THE TIME it is obviously a fair point. We might make the playoffs by 1 point.

Non-point. This doesn’t address trading future items to help this years team.

The Devils had flexibility to move certain players knowing that they have a number of players committed to the team for long term, of course that makes a huge difference on deciding whether they should spend.

Like who? Cozens doesn’t fit this definition to you but you also think he would have been impactful?

More along the lines of when Vancouver was debating trading Miller vs Petterson. I wasn't huge on Miller as a long term fit but if they moved Petterson I would have looked into that hard. I do love how you are really drilling in here like me saying I was willing to trade Nemec means I'll give him away for anything - must not be familiar with my posting history.

————-

Just for me, looking at your list, I personally still don’t see how you justify going for it this year or that that Devils are in a great spot to do so.

Assuming your most compelling point is #1, you have it backwards. The injuries explain why not to go for it, not a reason to go for it.

Again, you are letting the phrase "go for it" do an awful lot of work for your argument - what does "go for it" mean to you?

 

[Devils731]

Again, you are letting the phrase "go for it" do an awful lot of work for your argument - what does "go for it" mean to you?

Go for it means sacrificing possible impact future help for current help.

Hilarious hindsight - we made it by the skin of our teeth after being in control most of the year. Since we are discussing Fitz's judgement AT THE TIME it is obviously a fair point. We might make the playoffs by 1 point.

The Devils have never been under 90% odds to make the playoffs from the deadline. They correctly calculated at the deadline that they should easily make it and they have. They were never in real danger of missing.

I do love how you are really drilling in here like me saying I was willing to trade Nemec means I'll give him away for anything - must not be familiar with my posting history.

I can’t read your mind. Cozens arguably fits the definition you provided as an option but you also said Cozens isn’t what you’re talking about. That makes it very hard to figure out what you mean.

A healthy Petterson is a bonafide superstar, that’s way different than top 6 help.

 

[NJDfan86]

Go for it means sacrificing possible impact future help for current help.

Then every trade made in the NHL is a “go for it trade”. No trade is guaranteed to work, whether you give up the futures or the current. That’s a super soft definition - for me “go for it”means taking a look at your assets, deciding what you would be willing to part with and for who, and then making a move. Sometimes that’s giving up future impact, sometimes that’s giving up future value -and there’s a difference.

The Devils have never been under 90% odds to make the playoffs from the deadline. They correctly calculated at the deadline that they should easily make it and they have. They were never in real danger of missing.

They can end up making the playoffs by one point - when they were at 90% earlier it included a lot of priors but they underperformed.

I can’t read your mind. Cozens arguably fits the definition you provided as an option but you also said Cozens isn’t what you’re talking about. That makes it very hard to figure out what you mean.

You don't need to read my mind if you can accurately read my words. The problem
Is have chosen you can’t or won’t.

A healthy Petterson is a bonafide superstar, that’s way different than top 6 help.

Might be the type of player you trade a Nemec for - too bad we only have a Nemec to trade in your argument

 

[Triumph]

Might be the type of player you trade a Nemec for - too bad we only have a Nemec to trade in your argument

The only reasonable assets to trade in the sort of deal you're talking about are Nemec or the 2026 1st. Maybe you can put Casey on that list as well.

 

[NJDfan86]

The only reasonable assets to trade in the sort of deal you're talking about are Nemec or the 2026 1st. Maybe you can put Casey on that list as well.

only reasonable of what they would accept?

 

[Zippy316]

Devils just don’t have the cap space moving forward to deal Nemec for anyone making a significant cap hit, unless they miraculously get a team to take Palat with no retention.

How do they fit in Pettersson and a Luke extension? It’s just not feasible.

Devils either have to accept moving Nemec for a one-for-one swap that could go horribly wrong like Wright or MacTavish or target a mid-tier forward like McCann signed to a great deal. The latter is probably not the best use of a Nemec as an asset though.

I’m still of the opinion it makes sense to move Dougie, given he would waive his NMC. I’ve floated the idea of Marchment + Dumba (cap dump) that I could see make a ton of sense for both teams.

 

[Triumph]

only reasonable of what they would accept?

I don't know what this question means. I am saying that if the Devils wanted a decent player who is not a rental, these are the assets the Devils have to get one.

 

[NJDfan86]

I don't know what this question means. I am saying that if the Devils wanted a decent player who is not a rental, these are the assets the Devils have to get one.

Ok, my apologies on the final phrase there as I agree it makes no sense.

To clarify: I would have been OK with any of those assets being used to improve the team long term.

 

[Devils731]

---

You don't need to read my mind if you can accurately read my words. The problem
Is have chosen you can’t or won’t.

I pointed out you both said Cozens would have been an impact guy but also that he doesn’t count as a top 6 guy with term; since that’s what Nemec could be traded for.

Your words conflict. That’s on you.

That’s a super soft definition - for me “go for it”means taking a look at your assets, deciding what you would be willing to part with and for who, and then making a move. Sometimes that’s giving up future impact, sometimes that’s giving up future value -and there’s a difference.

How is this also not every NHL trade?

What is the difference between future value and future impact?

You’re continuing to say vague things like this to avoid getting pinned down in any statement.

The Devils should not have traded likely future potential for help now. Trades don’t normally give you both better future potential and better current.

Do you think this roster is in a great spot to make today better at the sacrifice of future potential? My position and most seem to be no; so if you think yes then we just disagree.

They can end up making the playoffs by one point - when they were at 90% earlier it included a lot of priors but they underperformed.

they never looked in danger of missing the playoffs and they didn’t.

Also, to be picky, the worst the Devils can do is make the playoffs by 3 points. Columbus can finish 2 back and the Devils own the tie breaker; so Columbus would have needed 3 more points and that’s with the Devils coasting for a bit here.

 

[Devs3cups]

Can’t believe we ended up with the same amount of points as the Montreal Canadiens. We were basically 20 points over them at the holiday break.

Shameful, what a horrible 2025.

 

[Edmonton East]

Devils just don’t have the cap space moving forward to deal Nemec for anyone making a significant cap hit, unless they miraculously get a team to take Palat with no retention.

How do they fit in Pettersson and a Luke extension? It’s just not feasible.

Devils either have to accept moving Nemec for a one-for-one swap that could go horribly wrong like Wright or MacTavish or target a mid-tier forward like McCann signed to a great deal. The latter is probably not the best use of a Nemec as an asset though.

I’m still of the opinion it makes sense to move Dougie, given he would waive his NMC. I’ve floated the idea of Marchment + Dumba (cap dump) that I could see make a ton of sense for both teams.

Which for the 100th time is exactly why the Kovacevic contract was moronic. Unjustifiably stupid when factoring in the roster construction, RD depth, 25 movement clauses, and trash forward prospects. And I liked the Kovy acquisition from day 1.....extension still made ZERO sense for this team unless it was a sweetheart deal. But per usual, Fitz overpaid the shit out of him and gave him a NMC instead of moving him for a 1st+ or a decent prospect. Anyone thinking Kovy wouldn't have gotten that this year didn't pay attention to the deadline at all.

Fitz has no idea how to value players $$$ wise. He also has no clue how to factor TIMING into roster construction. So this org is pretty much f'd unless they suddenly start drafting well OR Jack Hughes stops getting hurt AND further rounds out his C game. Tom Fitzgerald is a moron and a bottom 5 GM in this league. People applaud him for course correcting easily foreseeable issues a year too late....back against wall...and getting bent over a barrel or panic overcorrecting. It's ridiculous.