Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[Devils731]

players are going to play longer then they used to play and when you get "close" enough there will certainly be bad enough teams willing to take player on to drive the chase/ticket sales biggest factor is going to be a player staying healthy which with the game being less physical i dont see being an issue

How many players play 20 years currently? Very few.

How many people get the number of points you need to average in a season for 20 years? 2 players in the last 10 years were able to do it in 1 season and not the other 9. All other players were 0 for 10.

The math doesn’t math for Gretzky’s point total to be in any jeopardy. Vibes don’t change the math.

Unless you think we are going to suddenly have someone effectively lead the league in scoring for 20 years straight and do that by 10-30 points more than the second place guy most seasons.

———-

Ovechkin is a massive offensive play that played for 20 years. Will miss by 1,200 points.

Crosby is another massive offensive player for 20 years. Will miss by 1,100 points.

McDavid is great and has been through 10 years of his career, so let’s double his points total and see where he is. Would miss by 700 points and doesn’t factor in his career tailing off.

These are massive misses by your biggest offensive stars. It’s not happening.

 

[Clam Jensen]

The more I think about what Fitz did at the TDL the more I can appreciate it. He didn't make any shortsighted moves to ruin the future trajectory of this team, but he did just enough to allow the current roster to tread water and make the playoffs, and as I've said many times in the past week, they need all the playoff experience they can get.

What Fitz does in the offseason will seal his future in the org one way or another, but I'm hopeful he recognizes the current deficiencies and does what he needs to to address them.

 

[NJDfan86]

The more I think about what Fitz did at the TDL the more I can appreciate it. He didn't make any shortsighted moves to ruin the future trajectory of this team, but he did just enough to allow the current roster to tread water and make the playoffs, and as I've said many times in the past week, they need all the playoff experience they can get.

What Fitz does in the offseason will seal his future in the org one way or another, but I'm hopeful he recognizes the current deficiencies and does what he needs to to address them.

there were plenty of players moved at the deadline who could have helped this team play competitive hockey down the stretch and we ended up with none of them.

We are backing into the playoffs as softly as possible, the fact that we banked enough with a healthy Jack doesn’t absolve Fitz from providing the team with an actual chance.

He’s years into this job now, if we are happy that he didn’t execute an Erat for Forsberg then we might as well enjoy the mediocrity we’ve been experiencing.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

there were plenty of players moved at the deadline who could have helped this team play competitive hockey down the stretch and we ended up with none of them.

We are backing into the playoffs as softly as possible, the fact that we banked enough with a healthy Jack doesn’t absolve Fitz from providing the team with an actual chance.

Sure but were you willing to pay the price for those guys? I had no interest in paying huge prices for rentals after Jack's injury and for that I am thankful Fitz did not either.

 

[NJDfan86]

Sure but were you willing to pay the price for those guys? I had no interest in paying huge prices for rentals after Jack's injury and for that I am thankful Fitz did not either.

There were non-rentals traded, but I certainly would have spent the picks from Doumalin on a forward for instance.

The Devils were at precisely where you take a real swing - we have assets, our best players are locked up, and we have clarity on huge cap increases coming down the line. The team needed surgery and it got a piece of scotch tape.

 

[Devils731]

There were non-rentals traded, but I certainly would have spent the picks from Doumalin on a forward for instance.

The Devils were at precisely where you take a real swing - we have assets, our best players are locked up, and we have clarity on huge cap increases coming down the line. The team needed surgery and it got a piece of scotch tape.

The team was not precisely in the slot to take a swing.

They had their best offensive forward and arguably 2 of their top 3 defenseman hurt and all possibly missing the playoffs.

Not many teams sit around going “Even without 3 top/core players, we are still in the exact spot we want to be to take a swing. It definitely won’t likely be better next year, or the year after, etc…”

————-

Even with Hamilton coming back, the Devils still need Dumolin now. He’s arguably the most needed trade the Devils made, leaving out the weird cap retaining.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

There were non-rentals traded, but I certainly would have spent the picks from Doumalin on a forward for instance.

The Devils were at precisely where you take a real swing - we have assets, our best players are locked up, and we have clarity on huge cap increases coming down the line. The team needed surgery and it got a piece of scotch tape.

They are missing their best offensive forward and their best defensive DMan. Their best offensive DMan was also injured and unsure if he'd return at that time.

I really had/still have no interest in paying the prices for some of the guys that moved at the deadline. They can re-asses in the summer and go from there.

What player(s) that moved should we have traded for?

 

[MadDevil]

The more I think about what Fitz did at the TDL the more I can appreciate it. He didn't make any shortsighted moves to ruin the future trajectory of this team, but he did just enough to allow the current roster to tread water and make the playoffs, and as I've said many times in the past week, they need all the playoff experience they can get.

What Fitz does in the offseason will seal his future in the org one way or another, but I'm hopeful he recognizes the current deficiencies and does what he needs to to address them.

He was kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place, even if some of it was self inflicted. With Jack done for the season the chances of them doing damage in the playoffs took a huge hit. They were never going to replace him, and other than Rantanen, which impact forwards really moved? Is Brock Nelson really moving the needle?

The alternative of just doing nothing and throwing in the towel on the season wasn't realistic either, even if this still ends with an early exit. One could argue about the price he paid for what he added, but shopping at the deadline isn't always cheap.

The fixes this team needs are more offseason moves than in season moves anyway. Hopefully Fitz learned that lesson this season and he'll make the right adjustments this summer. I'm not gonna lie and say I have the same faith in him I did two years ago though.

 

[Clam Jensen]

There were non-rentals traded, but I certainly would have spent the picks from Doumalin on a forward for instance.

The Devils were at precisely where you take a real swing - we have assets, our best players are locked up, and we have clarity on huge cap increases coming down the line. The team needed surgery and it got a piece of scotch tape.

They were unequivocally not where you take a real swing, missing their top 2 D and 1b forward.

 

[thebeernerd]

The seller's market this year was obscene. I like the smaller-scale trades Fitz made. Glass is the bottom six center we've needed since McLeod got charged. And by sheer necessity, Mercer has looked better at center than he has at wing, although I'm willing to be proven wrong with the analytics.

If you believe that we have a window for years, it makes sense to not go too all-in.

 

[Oneiro]

Given that you've got guys in the room who expect to compete, he did as close to nothing as possible.

If you want to get pissed about losing Traff, that's a choice. I don't think it will matter, the same way Rykov didn't matter.

 

[Guttersniped]

i'm not going to pretend to know the ins and outs of capology like most on here do. is this kid going to play in the playoffs? do they think so lowly of him that they are fine burning a year on his ELC? further are they not going to give that russian kid a shot now because they dont want to burn a year of his ELC?


then off topic how is that other kid i kept reading about in euro doing lanni? lenni?

thanks i'll hang up and listen to the response

Are you talking about LaChance?

They didn’t burn a ELC year with him, it starts in 25-26 and he’ll finish this year on an Amateur Try Out with Utica.

It’s a 2 year ELC because he’ll be 22 when the deal starts next season.



Did you mean “highly” instead of “lowly” here?

do they think so lowly of him that they are fine burning a year on his ELC

Burning Gritsyuk’s ELC is more complicated because he only can get a one year ELC.

I actually doubt Gritsyuk would play much straight away in the playoffs and it would be tough to price a RFA deal based on his KHL career.

Teams occasionally burn a season off of KHL players’ ELCs but players are typically still young enough to get at least a 1 year ELC.

KHL players starting on RFA deals:
Gusev (27 NJD): started on a 2 year/4.5m RFA deal
Sorokin (25 NYI): started on a 1 year/2m RFA deal

Other KHL players with burned years:
Kaprizov (23 MIN): 1 year burned off a 2 year ELC w/ up to 925k in potential performance bonuses
Nikishin (23 CAR): 1 year burned off 2 year ELC w/ 3m bonuses
Gravrikov (23 CBJ): 1 year burned off 2 year ELC w/ 850k bonuses
Khusnutdinov (22 MIN): 1 year burned off 2 year ELC w/ 850k bonus
Dorofeyev (20 VGK): 1 year burned off 3 year ELC
Romanov (20 MTL): 1 year burned off 3 year ELC w/ 213k & 638k bonuses
Chinakhov (20 CBJ): 1 year burned off 3 year ELC w/ 500k & 700k bonuses
Demidov (19 MTL): 1 year burned off 3 year ELC w/ 2m & 3m bonuses

No years burned:
Kuzmenko (26 VAN): 1 year ELC w/ 850k bonuses
Tsyplakov (25 NYI): 1 year ELC w/ 1m bonuses
Zub (24 OTT): 1 year ELC w/ 850k bonuses
Mikheyev (24 TOR): 1 year ELC
Miromanov (24 VGK): 1 year ELC
Lyubushkin (24 ARI): 1 year ELC w/ 425k bonuses
Panarin (23 CHI): 2 year ELC w/ 2.8m & 2.58m bonuses
Shesterkin (23 NYR): 2 year ELC w/ 2.85m bonuses
Kovalenko (23 COL): 2 year ELC w/ 58k bonus
Romanov (23 COL): : 2 year ELC w/ 80k bonus
Voronkov (23 CBJ): 2 year ELC
Marchenko (22 CBJ): 2 year ELC w/ 425k & 850k bonuses
Kochetkov (22 CAR) 2 year ELC w/ 83k bonuses
Nesterenko (22 ANA) 2 year ELC
And everyone else signed to 3 ELCs out of the KHL: Michkov, Tarasenko, Ovechkin, Vasilevskiy, Podkolzin, Nichushkin, Samsonov, Namestnikov, Mukhamadullin*, Dadonov, Kolosov, Tarasov, Buchnevich, Georgiev

*We basically burned 1 year of Muk by loaning him to his KHL team

 

[NJDfan86]

The team was not precisely in the slot to take a swing.

They had their best offensive forward and arguably 2 of their top 3 defenseman hurt and all possibly missing the playoffs.

Not many teams sit around going “Even without 3 top/core players, we are still in the exact spot we want to be to take a swing. It definitely won’t likely be better next year, or the year after, etc…”

————-

Even with Hamilton coming back, the Devils still need Dumolin now. He’s arguably the most needed trade the Devils made, leaving out the weird cap retaining.

Crazy short sighted thinking not to go for it, they were in a playoff position the entire second half only the resident doomers believed we wouldn’t make it. We all know we need another center or real player on the wing this offseason - if you make the trade now instead of during this offseason season you kill two birds with one stone. Would he devils be in the exact same position with a forward and Cholowoski instead of Doumalin for the last 18 games? Probably!

Some of ya’ll are making it seem like I’m advocating for trading 3 first’s for a rental when there were highly useful players moved that would have helped this team now and in the future.

 

[Devils731]

Crazy short sighted thinking not to go for it, they were in a playoff position the entire second half only the resident doomers believed we wouldn’t make it. We all know we need another center or real player on the wing this offseason - if you make the trade now instead of during this offseason season you kill two birds with one stone. Would he devils be in the exact same position with a forward and Cholowoski instead of Doumalin for the last 18 games? Probably!

Some of ya’ll are making it seem like I’m advocating for trading 3 first’s for a rental when there were highly useful players moved that would have helped this team now and in the future.

Cholo is way worse than Dumo, so it would really suck having to play Cholo in the playoffs against the Canes.

The Devils got a center in Glass and got him pretty cheap. Seems like a savvy move that may help the team now and in the future.

It’s not short sighted to think this team missing 3 of the best players isn’t in a “go for it” mode where you get rentals.

I think everyone would have been fine spending more for guys that would be part of the future.

Which guys were traded where you feel the Devils should have paid even more to get them? Even better, which guys were traded for what Dumo got that are making the difference that Dumo doesn’t?

 

[NJDfan86]

Cholo is way worse than Dumo, so it would really suck having to play Cholo in the playoffs against the Canes.

The Devils got a center in Glass and got him pretty cheap. Seems like a savvy move that may help the team now and in the future.

It’s not short sighted to think this team missing 3 of the best players isn’t in a “go for it” mode where you get rentals.

I think everyone would have been fine spending more for guys that would be part of the future.

Which guys were traded where you feel the Devils should have paid even more to get them? Even better, which guys were traded for what Dumo got that are making the difference that Dumo doesn’t?

I didn't say anything about rentals - why does this keep coming up since I am actually killing the main rental deal they did? There were players with term traded at the deadline at positions that would have helped us now and the future and Fitz didn't land one of them, nor did he find a suitable substitute. I also never said Cholo was better than Doom, I said I would rather have a comparably priced forward and suck it up with Cholo than just have Doom which is a significantly different perspective.

As for what I would have liked to see (and advocated for in the past for some) are players like Cozens, Norris, and Novak, I would have spent the assets on Coyle instead of Doumalin, etc. we need to turn some uncertainly after our top 6 into some long term certainty.

Fitz did nothing of consequence, and we are long past that being good enough to earn him praise.

 

[JrFischer54]

How many players play 20 years currently? Very few.

How many people get the number of points you need to average in a season for 20 years? 2 players in the last 10 years were able to do it in 1 season and not the other 9. All other players were 0 for 10.

The math doesn’t math for Gretzky’s point total to be in any jeopardy. Vibes don’t change the math.

Unless you think we are going to suddenly have someone effectively lead the league in scoring for 20 years straight and do that by 10-30 points more than the second place guy most seasons.

———-

Ovechkin is a massive offensive play that played for 20 years. Will miss by 1,200 points.

Crosby is another massive offensive player for 20 years. Will miss by 1,100 points.

McDavid is great and has been through 10 years of his career, so let’s double his points total and see where he is. Would miss by 700 points and doesn’t factor in his career tailing off.

These are massive misses by your biggest offensive stars. It’s not happening.

bookmark this i'll see you when we are old/er

 

[JrFischer54]

devils shipped toff off last year for a similar package as dumo for us this year when we were in a playoff spot and injured. i remember people thinking that return was weak but this year a similar package to help us win was widely criticized. which btw has actually helped the club

fitz at the deadline did what he could with what was available he missed his go to target whoever that was so i wont blame him. people just want to hate to hate.

 

[My3Sons]

players are going to play longer then they used to play and when you get "close" enough there will certainly be bad enough teams willing to take player on to drive the chase/ticket sales biggest factor is going to be a player staying healthy which with the game being less physical i dont see being an issue

You are putting a lot of faith in avocados.

 

[thebeernerd]

Honestly, if Jack and Dougie were healthy going into the deadline, we probably would have seen much better results after getting guys like Dumo and Glass.

 

[Guttersniped]

Crazy short sighted thinking not to go for it, they were in a playoff position the entire second half only the resident doomers believed we wouldn’t make it. We all know we need another center or real player on the wing this offseason - if you make the trade now instead of during this offseason season you kill two birds with one stone. Would he devils be in the exact same position with a forward and Cholowoski instead of Doumalin for the last 18 games? Probably!

Some of ya’ll are making it seem like I’m advocating for trading 3 first’s for a rental when there were highly useful players moved that would have helped this team now and in the future.

What forward are you getting for that 2nd and late round prospect though? I feel like you’re arguing a hypothetical that doesn’t reflect what actually happened at the TDL.

Forwards who went for a 2nd:
Brandon Tanev (18 GP 1G 4A 5 pts since trade)
Anthony Beauvillier (17 GP 2G 3A 5 pts)
Gustav Nyquist (22 GP 2G 5A 7 pts)

Fitz was looking to get a center with term but Coyle was traded for Mittelstadt and Cozens was traded for Norris.

I would’ve been pretty unhappy with us spending a 1st on Laughton (19 GP 1G 2A 3 pts).

Rental Brock Nelson cost a ton. Granlund went for a 1st.

Bjorkstrand and Gourde were traded together for multiple 1sts.

 

[JrFischer54]

What forward are you getting for that 2nd and late round prospect though? I feel like you’re arguing a hypothetical that doesn’t reflect what actually happened at the TDL.

Forwards who went for a 2nd:
Brandon Tanev (18 GP 1G 4A 5 pts since trade)
Anthony Beauvillier (17 GP 2G 3A 5 pts)
Gustav Nyquist (22 GP 2G 5A 7 pts)

Fitz was looking to get a center with term but Coyle was traded for Mittelstadt and Cozens was traded for Norris.

I would’ve been pretty unhappy with us spending a 1st on Laughton (19 GP 1G 2A 3 pts).

Rental Brock Nelson cost a ton. Granlund went for a 1st.

Bjorkstrand and Gourde were traded together for multiple 1sts.

if this team was fully healthy and actually had fight in them and not mentally soft i would have no problem spending a first on any player that fitz wanted to get. any and all trade deadlines.

 

[NJDfan86]

What forward are you getting for that 2nd and late round prospect though? I feel like you’re arguing a hypothetical that doesn’t reflect what actually happened at the TDL.

Forwards who went for a 2nd:
Brandon Tanev (18 GP 1G 4A 5 pts since trade)
Anthony Beauvillier (17 GP 2G 3A 5 pts)
Gustav Nyquist (22 GP 2G 5A 7 pts)

Fitz was looking to get a center with term but Coyle was traded for Mittelstadt and Cozens was traded for Norris.

I would’ve been pretty unhappy with us spending a 1st on Laughton (19 GP 1G 2A 3 pts).

Rental Brock Nelson cost a ton. Granlund went for a 1st.

Bjorkstrand and Gourde were traded together for multiple 1sts.

Tanev's underlyings look pretty damn good to me right now when our bottom 6 LW's are Dowling and Foote. Drew O'conner was included in the Petterson deal but probably could have been had for a similar price but we waited too long.

 

[Devils731]

As for what I would have liked to see (and advocated for in the past for some) are players like Cozens, Norris, and Novak

Those guys all went for way more than Dumo.

Norris is hurt so who knows how he would play but I like him.

Cozens has some counting stats but I believe fans already worry his contract is an anchor that they’re unhappy to have.

Novak hasn’t done anything in the last 2 years to suggest he’s an impact player right now.

Coyle is 33 and only has 1 more year on his contract so I’m not sure he would be considered a long term move.

————

I think Glass has a good argument that he’s been the second best trade of these 5 players and is most likely to provide good value to their current team going forward.

 

[forceten]

The Dumoulin trade will rankle me if it was just for a handful of games to eke out a season where we fell off the rails and then lost 3 of our top 5 players to injury.

A second rounder plus Herman Traff who looked like a pretty good prospect (better than Pikkarainen) is a lot to pay for essentially nothing.

 

[Guttersniped]

if this team was fully healthy and actually had fight in them and not mentally soft i would have no problem spending a first on any player that fitz wanted to get. any and all trade deadlines.

We’re not remotely healthy now, and weren’t at the trade deadline, so that hypothetical doesn’t matter.