Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

[Dylan9z9]

If you had to pick one to move...

Nico, Jack, or Bratt

Who are you moving? I'm curious.

Option 4 Ondrej Palat

 

[NJDevils17]

One of the (many) issues with trading Jack Hughes is that you aren’t pulling one over on anyone else. Every team knows he’s missed 1/4 of the season for the last few years. You’re getting a reduced return even if it is good.

What if they do trade him and he strings together 4/5 years of 70+ game seasons after you moved him for a discount? Then what? Because these aren’t the same consistent soft tissue injuries, it’s been more freak plays than not. Because the meltdown amongst the fan base is probably a good reason they don’t move him.

Even if you’re down him 15 games a year, it’s just hard to say you’re going to be a better team with him gone with the assets you recoup.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Jack/Luke for Nick Suzuki & Slafkovsky and two 1st round picks (maybe 1 if it’s high in a good draft year). I’d do that in a heartbeat.

Nico/Suzuki down the middle? Yea I can get on board with that. You’d have a chance at having a full season with both your centers healthy. Although I guess with Nico you never know either! LOL

LOL. Federal Government is hiring. I heard they have some open positions. Highly encourage you to join them, they could really use your strawman expertise.

just so we're clear, the evidence is above. Why are you gaslighting people? You literally said yesterday we should trade Jack and Luke for those guys I mentioned.

Please don't lie.

 

[theoptimist]

If you had to pick one to move...

Nico, Jack, or Bratt

Who are you moving? I'm curious.

Oldie but goodie.

Fitz will be fired long before any of the Hugheses, Nico, Bratt ilk are moved. The decision is simple. Question is, does Keefe go with him?

 

[devilsblood]

26 is statistically the peak year of production on an average NHL career span. That's actually probably skewing even younger given how many kids go straight into the league now vs spending a 1-3 years cutting their teeth in the AHL.

Production may peak then. But overall game probably peaks a little later.

 

[JimEIV]

Production may peak then. But overall game probably peaks a little later.

From my eye, I've always felt defensemen hit there sweet spot around 27/28. You'll see guys with high level offense put up monster numbers much earlier but that sweet spot to me is the poise and steadiness of a groomed NHL defenseman.

That completeness usually seems to come much later.

 

[JrFischer54]

If you had to pick one to move...

Nico, Jack, or Bratt

Who are you moving? I'm curious.

its close between jack and bratt. jack only because the injury history and honestly its stupid to sound but you move on from him then luke will be gone and quinn wouldn't be coming here. now some might say thats not a reason to keep a guy but its probably accurate but rather keep two centers

 

[devilsblood]

No mention of Gibbons who scored 12 of his 25 career goals in the first half of that season.

I agree that I don't think anyone thought that they would finish 5th to last in the subsequent season, but there were obvious flaws and Shero didn't do a whole lot during the offseason. Wood looked like he might be a 2nd/3rd line winger, that didn't really happen, Zacha never took off, Noesen's career fell apart, Butcher had one more decent year and then he was through, and so on.

My bad for not mentioning a 4th liner who finished 9th in goal scoring for that team.

But yeah a lot of stuff didn't pan out the following season. Instead of building on that season we saw mostly regression, which was unexpected, especially with so many young guys. Nico, Bratt, Wood, Noesen, all missing games, and all seeing their production drop. Butcher didn't miss games but his production dropped.

Plus, Kink's game fell off a cliff. Vat's missed games and fell off a cliff. And the biggest was Hall, who missed 50 games and scored 28 less goals, and though he has stayed in the league, his game also fell off the cliff.

So in addition to the young guys regressing after that season, we had 3 guys in their primes who went from good-really good-great to on the fast track to retirement (well maybe not the fast track for Hall, but not that different).

So yeah, I'm pushing back against the idea that everyone knew, at the time, that that season was a fluke.

Now did Shero do a poor job the following off season? I don't really remember the moves but I won't argue against it.(edit, drew Stafford, obvious bust of a signing).

Anyways, we can go back to the who should we trade debate......actually I might avoid this one.

 

[devilsfan950003]

Hughes skill isn’t the problem his inability to stay healthy is. All the talent does no good if your out half the year. Also stay on your feet for more then 15 seconds please

He's fragile.

 

[NjDevsRR]

2 pts tonight would be huge before Winnipeg

 

[devilsblood]

From my eye, I've always felt defensemen hit there sweet spot around 27/28. You'll see guys with high level offense put up monster numbers much earlier but that sweet spot to me is the poise and steadiness of a groomed NHL defenseman.

That completeness usually seems to come much later.

Ya the general thought has always been d-man take longer to develop.

And I kind of remember the general thought of d-man peak years going into the mid 30's. Steven's won his first cup with us at the age of 31. He was 36 when we won the 2nd cup. 39 when we won our 3rd.

Lidstrom didn't win his first Norris till he was 30. He was 40 when he won his 7th. He was 37, when Detroit won their 4th cup, a team on which he was 3rd in points.

Chelios played for ever.

Chara is a more recent guy who was still highly effective later in his career, but I feel he is more the exception these days. Think in general D-men's peak seasons have skewed younger. Probably due to the speed of the game. Defensive oriented d-men may be the most effected by this.

 

[devilsblood]

He's fragile.

Maybe more so then that is, he is prone to ugly falls/hits into the boards. This last one could have broken anyone.

The continuous offseason rehab taking away from weight room muscle building offseasons isn't helping either.

 

[devilsblood]

2 pts tonight would be huge before Winnipeg

Going for the "Understatement of the Day" award?

 

[Triumph]

My bad for not mentioning a 4th liner who finished 9th in goal scoring for that team.

Yes, it is your bad. Brian Gibbons was one of the leading scorers on the team through November, he had 11 goals in the first two months of the season. He also did not play 4th line minutes.

So yeah, I'm pushing back against the idea that everyone knew, at the time, that that season was a fluke.

Of course you are, because you don't believe in flukes. There was a ton of stuff that had to go right and while everyone was hopeful they could build on that season, I think most people thought a step back would be likely.

Now did Shero do a poor job the following off season? I don't really remember the moves but I won't argue against it.(edit, drew Stafford, obvious bust of a signing).

Anyways, we can go back to the who should we trade debate......actually I might avoid this one.

Stafford was also on the 2018 team. The problem Shero had is that he knew the team was a fluke, so he didn't want to make any big UFA commitments. But long-term, guys like Butcher and Wood were only marginal players, Kinkaid would never have a steady gig in the NHL again, and Hall couldn't do everything.

 

[glenwo2]

"This team has a spine?"

Don't agree with the sentiment, but wanted credit for the joke before anyone else.

You get high marks, man.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I can't imagine a trade in which we move Bratt, Jack, or Nico and walk out a better team. No amount of draft picks will bring more value to the team, nor prospects will be able to replace them on the ice, and any players that are better than them are going to be much more expensive to the point we'd have to gut our already thin roster to accommodate them.

Moving any of them is a decision that means we're going to tear down to the studs and do ANOTHER 5-7 year rebuild. You don't trade guys like that for a retool. Without those three this is an AHL team (and that's literally the whole point of this conversation, why are we blaming the only guys that are pulling their weight).

I'll also point out that next season is Jack's last without trade protection, he gets a 10 team No Trade List starting July 1 2026. Nico gained a 10 team No Trade List this summer and maintains it throughout the duration of his contract. Bratt has a full No Movement Clause through the duration of his contract.

 

[njdevils1982]

He's fragile.

he must be italian

 

[devilsblood]

Yes, it is your bad. Brian Gibbons was one of the leading scorers on the team through November, he had 11 goals in the first two months of the season. He also did not play 4th line minutes.

Through November? Wow that's like 20 games.

Of course you are, because you don't believe in flukes. There was a ton of stuff that had to go right and while everyone was hopeful they could build on that season, I think most people thought a step back would be likely.

Again, Nico was a #1oa rookie. Jesper Bratt despite the fade was incredible in the first half. Coleman Zajac Noesen was an excellent defensive line. The idea that the team was Hall and a bunch of junk is fugazzi.

Stafford was also on the 2018 team. The problem Shero had is that he knew the team was a fluke, so he didn't want to make any big UFA commitments. But long-term, guys like Butcher and Wood were only marginal players, Kinkaid would never have a steady gig in the NHL again, and Hall couldn't do everything.

Stop, he didn't trade for Hall, Johanssen, Vats, and then Maroon and Grabs thinking the team couldn't win.

Hall missed 50 games and was a shell of himself the next year. Vat missed 30 games was a shell of himself. Kink went from really good to brutal. Schneid's never rebounded. Then all the young guys taking a step back. This is why the team fell off. Not because the team in 17-18 was a fluke.

Total revisionist history.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Number one, you’re definitely not winning a trade of any one of those three guys. Certainly nothing that maintains/improves your chances of winning in the near term. Futures mean nothing, and if they did and the goal was another total rebuild, you may as well trade all three.

Second, we’re nowhere near that point yet. Even if they shit the bed next season I don’t know id we’re there. There are a lot of steps roster management wise in between here and there.

 

[njdevils1982]

Through November? Wow that's like 20 games.


Again, Nico was a #1oa rookie. Jesper Bratt despite the fade was incredible in the first half. Coleman Zajac Noesen was an excellent defensive line. The idea that the team was Hall and a bunch of junk is fugazzi.


Stop, he didn't trade for Hall, Johanssen, Vats, and then Maroon and Grabs thinking the team couldn't win.

Hall missed 50 games and was a shell of himself the next year. Vat missed 30 games was a shell of himself. Kink went from really good to brutal. Schneid's never rebounded. Then all the young guys taking a step back. This is why the team fell off. Not because the team in 17-18 was a fluke.

Total revisionist history.

hall and a bunch of junk was more of a minor threat

 

[devilsblood]

hall and a bunch of junk was more of a minor threat

I don't want to hear it? Moronic bullshit?

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

One of the (many) issues with trading Jack Hughes is that you aren’t pulling one over on anyone else. Every team knows he’s missed 1/4 of the season for the last few years. You’re getting a reduced return even if it is good.

What if they do trade him and he strings together 4/5 years of 70+ game seasons after you moved him for a discount? Then what? Because these aren’t the same consistent soft tissue injuries, it’s been more freak plays than not. Because the meltdown amongst the fan base is probably a good reason they don’t move him.

Even if you’re down him 15 games a year, it’s just hard to say you’re going to be a better team with him gone with the assets you recoup.

I'd also like to think if Jack is traded, Luke leaves. Some of you might not think too highly of this as someone who's potentially only sticking around here because of his brother but...it's a pretty high chance that's likely. If Jack left on his own, maybe Luke sticks around but if he was traded...completely different story imo

The fact that Luke is one of the few players from the past few years in the 1st round who have panned out (my god their track record is not good thinking about it), it'd hurt so much if he left.

 

[devilsblood]

Talking about Vat's and the 17-18 season got me thinking about what Rico is doing this season, and it looks like he finally fell off the cliff.

9-9-18 in 69 gp's.

24-27-51 in 82 last season.

 

[Triumph]

Through November? Wow that's like 20 games.

Through November, Taylor Hall had 8 goals in 24 games. He was being outscored by Brian Gibbons. Hall had 18 assists, but he would not have been anywhere close to anyone's MVP conversation at that time.

Again, Nico was a #1oa rookie. Jesper Bratt despite the fade was incredible in the first half. Coleman Zajac Noesen was an excellent defensive line. The idea that the team was Hall and a bunch of junk is fugazzi.

There were absolutely other contributors.

Stop, he didn't trade for Hall, Johanssen, Vats, and then Maroon and Grabs thinking the team couldn't win.

He left a ton of cap space, which teams who are looking to win typically do not do. Shero wasn't looking to lose, but he wasn't trying all that hard to win, either. Frankly I'm not entirely sure what his plan was.

The next offseason he did basically nothing. They signed Yakovlev, left a spot open for John Quenneville, and got a few guys on waivers (Dea, Agostino), used a few young guys who did nothing (Anderson, Seney).

Hall missed 50 games and was a shell of himself the next year. Vat missed 30 games was a shell of himself. Kink went from really good to brutal. Schneid's never rebounded. Then all the young guys taking a step back. This is why the team fell off. Not because the team in 17-18 was a fluke.

Total revisionist history.

The reason why the team was a fluke is that several players never again played that well in their careers - first and foremost Hall, but then also Kinkaid, Butcher and Gibbons. Stefan Noesen would take a stint to the minors and 5 years to get back to that level. It can be argued that Miles Wood never had a better season. So yeah, that's going to be true of a lot of playoff seasons that they will be a player's best, but they will rarely be an MVP-level season by a 1st line LW (who never came close to that again), a goalie who would never again be an average starter, a 3rd line forward who hadn't played in the NHL in 2 seasons who had 5 goals in 67 career games scoring 12.

Last post on this. It was a fluke.

 

[devilsblood]

Through November, Taylor Hall had 8 goals in 24 games. He was being outscored by Brian Gibbons. Hall had 18 assists, but he would not have been anywhere close to anyone's MVP conversation at that time.

Which shows that the first 24 games doesn't make a season. He had one goal after Dec 1st. Gibbons hot start was small piece in that seasons puzzle. It's why I left him out of my OP.

He left a ton of cap space, which teams who are looking to win typically do not do. Shero wasn't looking to lose, but he wasn't trying all that hard to win, either. Frankly I'm not entirely sure what his plan was.

The next offseason he did basically nothing. They signed Yakovlev, left a spot open for John Quenneville, and got a few guys on waivers (Dea, Agostino), used a few young guys who did nothing (Anderson, Seney).

Well I think he was allowing the young guys to grow into roles, unfortuneately it didn't happen. He wasn't in "win now" mode, but he certainly thought the team was in the opening stages of a window.

The reason why the team was a fluke is that several players never again played that well in their careers - first and foremost Hall, but then also Kinkaid, Butcher and Gibbons. Stefan Noesen would take a stint to the minors and 5 years to get back to that level. It can be argued that Miles Wood never had a better season.

Hall was a high end player prior to 17-18. So him falling off was the fluke. Kink had something like a career .910 save% following the 17-18 season, he was .891 in 18-19 and was basically never an NHL player after that. That fall off was the fluke. Vats fall off was the fluke. 3 very important pieces in 17-18 had odd ball career drop offs. These guys were all in their 20's.

The injuries/regression of Nico,Bratt,Wood and Butcher aren't that odd individually but all 4 having that drop off was certainly not something the board was predicting in the 18-19 preseason. I bet the board consensus was those guys were going to build off those seasons. The likes of Zacha, Queneville, Anderson, McLeod were all going to develop into contributors.