Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

[NJDfan86]

You left out 2nd most TOI 4v5 among forwards... he's being deployed in a defensive posture. His defensive zone starts are 60%...how much that means is debatable but no top 6 forward is over 53.8....he has been deployed as a pure bottom 6er with 1st unit PK and 2nd unit PP...and he's produced basically inline with that role in my opinion.

Mercer's 15 goals with his deployment is giganticly different/better than Palat's 13 playing with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt for the majority of this season.

Your math ain’t mathing there, unless you just looked at OZone start percentage and just assumed all other starts were in the DZone.

 

[Comparison Ford]

Tatar was feisty last game not sure why he is out

making multiple bad decisions with puck last game in third period i think is what did it

 

[Lou Bloom]

You left out 2nd most TOI 4v5 among forwards... he's being deployed in a defensive posture. His defensive zone starts are 60%...how much that means is debatable but no top 6 forward is over 53.8....he has been deployed as a pure bottom 6er with 1st unit PK and 2nd unit PP...and he's produced basically inline with that role in my opinion.

Mercer's 15 goals with his deployment is giganticly different/better than Palat's 13 playing with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt for the majority of this season.

He's being deployed defensively because the Devils lack forwards with strong defensive play. Hischier, Bratt and Jack are the best defensive forwards and because they're the only forwards capable of producing offense the team is going to focus on playing those guys more in offensive situations. Mercer isn't even a good defensive player, him playing all situations is a big indictment on the lack of quality forwards on the roster.

Palat isn't good either, but he at least provides decent support and does some little things to help drive possession, Mercer doesn't even bring those qualities.

If you think Mercer is young and will improve I can understand that argument, but I can't at all understand how anyone has watched his play the last two seasons and thought he was a quality player.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

he was not 'mediocre to bad' October to December lol you guys just say things that are easily disputable and expect everyone to go along with it.

1) What should the Devils have given up for Markstrom?

2) what other goalie should they have gotten instead then?

His January was the best month he had of goaltending considering he was consistently under siege in games and kept the Devils afloat in games, a .903 and .900 is "apparently good" now on this board, LMAO. I'll concede December due to the stats but the Devils decided they were the 95 Devils defensively that month but he did his job, the Canes and Rags games he stole were pretty damn good.

1. I never said the Devils shouldn't have done that move but when you use a first for a position like goaltender, you expect stability. He hasn't provided that in totality, not a shock statement or even a hot take.

2. Strawman argument considering I still think Markstrom was a good move but just want more from him

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Mercer is just not a very good player. He’s too weak. He’s not skilled enough to suck so bad on the boards with zero physicality.

Still think it's mental with the guy who thinks he's somehow better than he is.

 

[JimEIV]

Your math ain’t mathing there, unless you just looked at OZone start percentage and just assumed all other starts were in the DZone.

Hockey Reference Team page Advanced Statistics heading....

Jack does fit on the page at 28.4

 

[Better Call Sal]

I still believe in Mercer and think he’s capable of more. Because of that, it’s hard not to be disappointed in his past two seasons. He just doesn’t win enough battles, drive to the net or shoot enough. If he can improve upon any of those traits, then he has a chance to return to his sophomore form.

I think he is still a useful enough complementary piece, even if that is all he might amount to be.

 

[NJDfan86]

Hockey Reference Team page Advanced Statistics heading....

Jack does fit on the page at 28.4

View attachment 997490

Notice how everyone neatly is at 100% between dzone and ozone? Seems like you are missing a zone that play can start in that isn’t the ozone or dzone.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

There's a good chance that Mercer's 2023 February will be looked at the same way as Blackwood's February 2020, heater months from average NHLers. Stuff like that happens, obvious hindsight probably says trade him to WPG for Helly after 2023 but no one would do that. It sucks way more than the best thing from the 2020 draft class is going to be trading Shak in the Meier trade while Holtz busted and Mercer flamed out to what we thought his ceiling was

 

[JimEIV]

He's being deployed defensively because the Devils lack forwards with strong defensive play. Hischier, Bratt and Jack are the best defensive forwards and because they're the only forwards capable of producing offense the team is going to focus on playing those guys more in offensive situations. Mercer isn't even a good defensive player, him playing all situations is a big indictment on the lack of quality forwards on the roster.

Palat isn't good either, but he at least provides decent support and does some little things to help drive possession, Mercer doesn't even bring those qualities.

If you think Mercer is young and will improve I can understand that argument, but I can't at all understand how anyone has watched his play the last two seasons and thought he was a quality player.

But that was the entire point of the initial conversation that started with Bastian and Lazar... Bastian and Lazar suck... Haula, Tatar, Palat suck...you gotta lotta suck before you get to Mercer. Which you are basically saying in your first bolded paragraph.

So if that is true...and those exact guys have been his primary linemates for the last two years, not even taking into account the type of deployment he's seen, what possibly can be the expected result?

I certainly do believe Mercer has his flaws...but if you build a list of 12 of our forwards...I think there are larger problems with 50% (or more) of them before you get to Mercer.

 

[Eggtimer]

But that was the entire point of the initial conversation that started with Bastian and Lazar... Bastian and Lazar suck... Haula, Tatar, Palat suck...you gotta lotta suck before you get to Mercer. Which you are basically saying in your first bolded paragraph.

So if that is true...and those exact guys have been his primary linemates for the last two years, not even taking into account the type of deployment he's seen, what possibly can be the expected result?

I certainly do believe Mercer has his flaws...but if you build a list of 12 of our forwards...I think there are larger problems with 50% (or more) of them before you get to Mercer.

I dunno. I wouldn’t say 50% or more before we get to Mercer . Haula Tatar Dowling Bastian Palat then…. I’d say Mercer . He has regressed and is not the player we thought he could be . He is not effective in the top 6 and is not a typical bottom 6 energy guy either .

 

[JimEIV]

I dunno. I wouldn’t say 50% or more before we get to Mercer . Haula Tatar Dowling Bastian Palat then…. I’d say Mercer . He has regressed and is not the player we thought he could be . He is not effective in the top 6 and is not a typical bottom 6 energy guy either .

It certainly gets nuanced... you say he's not effective in the top 6...yet he has 15 goals from the bottom 6, 11 at Even Strength and one short handed...

So if that's not effective...what is Meier's 20 goals and 15 at Even Strength? Is this top 6 effective? ...4 ES goals is the difference between effective and not? We can do the same for Bratt or Palat in the goal scoring department.

And we are talking about a 23 year old 4th year player here... I think the standard floats a bit around here.

 

[Eggtimer]

It certainly gets nuanced... you say he's not effective in the top 6...yet he has 15 goals from the bottom 6, 11 at Even Strength and one short handed...

So if that's not effective...what is Meier's 20 goals and 15 at Even Strength? Is this top effective? ...4 ES goals is the difference between effective and not? We can do the same for Bratt or Palat...

And we are talking about a 23 year old 4th year player here... I think the standard floats a bit around here.

Mercer brings nothing to the table 5v5 if he’s not producing . It sure feels like that anyways. Maybe fancy stats show otherwise . Feels like a lot of plays and offence dies on his stick . And a lot of low hockey IQ decisions made as well . I notice myself saying during a game “ Ah come on Mercer , you suck “ a lot more than I have said “ atta boy Mercer , good play “ .

 

[Lou Bloom]

But that was the entire point of the initial conversation that started with Bastian and Lazar... Bastian and Lazar suck... Haula, Tatar, Palat suck...you gotta lotta suck before you get to Mercer. Which you are basically saying in your first bolded paragraph.

So if that is true...and those exact guys have been his primary linemates for the last two years, not even taking into account the type of deployment he's seen, what possibly can be the expected result?

I certainly do believe Mercer has his flaws...but if you build a list of 12 of our forwards...I think there are larger problems with 50% (or more) of them before you get to Mercer.

The Devils have tried countless times to deploy Mercer in the top 6 and he's been an anchor to any line he's been a part of.

You can isolate a player from a situation a judge him individually. My problem with Mercer isn't his point totals, It's from watching him play game in and game out and watching him provide little of quality despite playing a ton of minutes on a nightly basis.

Nobody disagrees that there are worse players than Mercer, the reason Mercer is brought up so much is because of expectations and the team playing him a ton of minutes despite his poor play.

 

[JimEIV]

Mercer brings nothing to the table 5v5 if he’s not producing . It sure feels like that anyways. Maybe fancy stats show otherwise . Feels like a lot of plays and offence dies on his stick . And a lot of low hockey IQ decisions made as well .

"Mercer brings nothing 5v5"

Mercer 10 5v5 goals

Palat 10 5v5 goals

Bratt 12 5v5 goals

Meier 12 5v5 goals...

Is that a whole lot of nothing or is 2 the difference?

 

[Eggtimer]

"Mercer brings nothing 5v5"

Mercer 10 5v5 goals

Palat 10 5v5 goals

Bratt 12 5v5 goals

Meier 12 5v5 goals...

Is that a whole lot of nothing or is 2 the difference?

I says when he’s not producing …. As in he doesn’t block shots , throw hits , make nice defensive plays . I expect more from him based off of his sophomore year . He has regressed since then. Or at least to the eye test , it looks like he has regressed .

 

[MadDevil]

 

[Lou Bloom]

It certainly gets nuanced... you say he's not effective in the top 6...yet he has 15 goals from the bottom 6, 11 at Even Strength and one short handed...

So if that's not effective...what is Meier's 20 goals and 15 at Even Strength? Is this top 6 effective? ...4 ES goals is the difference between effective and not? We can do the same for Bratt or Palat in the goal scoring department.

And we are talking about a 23 year old 4th year player here... I think the standard floats a bit around here.

Because you arbitrarily derive value/effectiveness from goal totals and ignore all other context about hockey.

 

[JimEIV]

Because you arbitrarily derive value/effectiveness from goal totals and ignore all other context about hockey.

Not totally true but I certainly do lean heavily on Even Strength goal scoring.

For a winger, in a top 6 offensive role, I do believe it's a crucial element.

I like first assist too. Like imagine playing nearly the entire year with Haula and producing 8 5v5 first assist

While Meier has 7 and Palat has 3 playing with Jack f***ing Hughes

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I think the cap hamstrung them this season. They had no real wiggle room and the guys you'd want to move out have trade protection.

He hasn't shown any indication of being good at this his entire time here though. It's not just this season. Also, a lot of the mess this season (mainly talking about inability to make any reinforcement trades) is the result of his terrible asset management over the years and terrible drafting.

 

[Oneiro]

Mercer is a passenger and a total disappointment. We're in year 3 of making excuses for him. He's a third liner and an NHL player, great. If a GM wants him for a better player, we should absolutely move him.

The players around him being mistakes or aging out - Palat, Lazar, Haula, Bastian, etc. - is a different issue, but just highlights the baseline fact that he's meh and there has been virtually no improvement.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Not totally true but I certainly do lean heavily on Even Strength goal scoring.

For a winger, in a top 6 offensive role, I do believe it's a crucial element.

I like first assist too. Like imagine playing nearly the entire year with Haula and producing 8 5v5 first assist

While Meier has 7 and Palat has 3 playing with Jack f***ing Hughes

So you must think very poorly of Brady Tkachuk with his 10 5v5 goals and 6 Primary Assists this season.

 

[JimEIV]

So you must think very poorly of Brady Tkachuk with his 10 5v5 goals and 6 Primary Assists this season.

That has to be looked at in the context of his team. But yes 16 points is very poor.

So if we looked at our team in 5v5 goals and 5v5 first assist among our top 6 wingers..Brady Tkachuk would be our 6th winger only above Palat.


Bratt 12 + 18 = 30
Meier 12 +7 = 19
Noesen 8 + 11 = 19
Mercer 10 + 8 = 18
Cotter 14 + 3 = 17
Palat 10 + 3 = 13

 

[My3Sons]

He hasn't shown any indication of being good at this his entire time here though. It's not just this season. Also, a lot of the mess this season (mainly talking about inability to make any reinforcement trades) is the result of his terrible asset management over the years and terrible drafting.

I think the mediocre drafting has been the biggest problem. If they had a few more prospects pushing for spots they wouldn’t have to add so many UFAs. I don’t think Fitz has killed the team with trades but they’ve had to patch too many holes. At least the Glass trade looks good.

 

[Eggtimer]

45 mins to gametime . I’ve been looking forward to the game . It’s going to be a tough game against a desperate team . Any word on who is starting in net ? I’m guessing Allen ?