Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

[JrFischer54]

Why? You don't want to improve their chances? They could win the Cup!!! Who cares about the future, playoffs are now right? That's what I thought you said!!!!?!!!?

Wow, you just want to punt the season!!! Take the L and your picks to the draft.

gotta give me credit that line was tremendous you can borrow it


yes if you make the playoffs you can win the cup thats the rules.


i'm pro get into the playoffs and see what happens. you are a dont improve your chances to the playoffs its ok if we dont make the playoffs because we wont win. at least i found someone more pessimistic then me

 

[devsfan8]

Nope.

My argument is pretty nuanced and middle-of-the-road, but apparently that is "punting the season". Well, why not go all in then? Serious question.

Fair enough. Give me a proposal for these guys.

 

[CalamityX23]

you rather a 2nd round pick next year to MAYBE be buyers at the deadline as opposed to making the playoffs now? wtf dude! wtf is a 2nd round pick going to get you next year that you are willing to risk having a decent shot at winning a round in the playoffs and then who knows. i've heard some crazy hf takes but dang!

That's a fair statement however what IS Dumo going to do to change that?

I'm all for playoffs n not giving into the "it's the end jingle"

The principle of spending a 2nd to improve for playoffs is correct and I think we all agree but it was horribly spent on a UFA dman over the age of 33 who's best compliment so far is a championship pedigree from 9 years ago.

Doesn't answer our offensive woes or aids in that correction.

We lost a 2nd n last year's 3rd rd selection for 3 months of hockey?

If Hamilton wasn't hurt, would we be doing this? No.

 

[bossram]

Fair enough. Give me a proposal foe this guys.

I'm asking you. You're the one that thinks the Devils should have bought and bought heavily to improve their chances.

 

[JrFischer54]

That's a fair statement however what IS Dumo going to do to change that?

I'm all for playoffs n not giving into the "it's the end jingle"

The principle of spending a 2nd to improve for playoffs is correct and I think we all agree but it was horribly spent on a UFA dman over the age of 33 who's best compliment so far is a championship pedigree from 9 years ago.

Doesn't answer our offensive woes or aids in that correction.

We lost a 2nd n last year's 3rd rd selection for 3 months of hockey?

If Hamilton wasn't hurt, would we be doing this? No.

looking back at the deadline the pick kinda matches the return compared to similar moves. luke schenn went for a 2nd so maybe could've got him? i dont even know who that guy is the rangers picked up for a 3rd but the 2nd rounder we gave up should be late in the round and practically considered a 3rd rounder imo

 

[JrFischer54]

I'm asking you. You're the one that thinks the Devils should have bought and bought heavily to improve their chances.

i dont think anyone said that. i'm fine with them trading the 2nd rounder for dumo if it gives them a better shot at making the playoffs. you are the one that thinks that means we want to go all in

 

[devsfan8]

I'm asking you. You're the one that thinks the Devils should have bought and bought heavily to improve their chances.

Those words never came out of my mouth. You do not make a trade for the sake of it either. Your overcomplicating this. The Devils had a need for a left defenseman that can fill the void of Siegenthaler while they are currently IN a playoff spot. They aren't the Rangers or Flyers or Habs fighting for a spot. Injuries or not, there is nothing wrong with trading a 2nd round pick to address a need. He did not just throw it away. You underestimate the importance of having a solid defense for the last quarter of the season and the playoffs. Dumolin is a career plus player, and a good transition dman who carries the puck well and plays disciplined. I do not care...if he is 50!! I make that trade 8 days a week 366 days a year 25 hours a day. He has experience in a winning culture. Brings leadership and 2 cups.

Just because he didn't land the big fish at forward does not mean he wasent in buying mode.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

The Dumoulin price was expensive and I'm not happy about it but I get it. I think losing Traff is a bigger deal than the 2nd. Trading away a guy just after you took him, and he's showing really well this year, is he actually worth more than the 2025 2nd rounder right now? Not necessarily on the trade market I guess but my mental model there is they basically traded two 2nd rounders for Dumoulin and I worry it's because they told themselves they absolutely needed to get a LD rental that is over 6' 3" with some skill. Two 2nd rounders for a rental defenseman is a nuts price to pay traditionally but you can't win in the playoffs without size on the backend right?

The deadline sucked because the team lost its best player and two crucial dmen but couldn't wave the white flag so they did what they could. Maybe they should have zagged, traded Kovacevic for a 2nd rounder+ and told the team to win with Hatakka and what they call up. I'd have been ok with that plan but I'm guessing majority of fans would not.

 

[MadDevil]

Let the blindfolded Timo jokes begin. Also, Nico quietly stalking in the background.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Paul Cotter’s doppelgänger works out at my gym. Everytime I see him I want to yell at him but he’s super jacked so I just glare

 

[dzubrus8]

Hypothetically if Devils do get in and face Canes in round 1. I really think that is a more even series than people would assume.

IF Devils win then they get I think Caps round 2? Again, I think closer than people would think.

Then ECF and Cup, they would be entirely outmatched and outclassed given the Atlantic and West.


But I hate this talk. Lets take care of business and get in first. Lots of work still to do.

Agreed - I don’t think this team gets demolished by the Caps or Canes but I think they lose each of those matchups based on current roster. Could see them winning 2-3 games against the Canes, and 1-2 against the Caps. Either way the Atlantic and the west are both nasty this year and I’m glad the devils didn’t try to get in on that arms race without 86.

 

[Alex NJD]

Seen a lot of good discussion about where we need to add offense to be a true contender. Whether we need more from top guys or secondary guys or the bottom 6. so I quickly put together the production numbers from the top ten teams in the league (in terms of standings but also on paper I would argue). They are all top 11 in scoring (Columbus is 10th).

Divided everything into 2 categories, goals per game and points per game. Categories are
Top 3 forwards in terms of PPG per team (Jack Nico and Bratt for us)
4-6 producers in terms of PPG (Timo, Noesen, Mercer for us)
The rest of the forwards on every team
Dmen

God bless Hockey Reference for including an option to export team data as excel, it only took me a few minutes

As you can see we are below contender average in terms of production, both goals and total points, from every group. Obviously a lot of these are corelated. Better offensive dmen means more forward points, but also better finishing from the forwards means more dmen points. A better bottom 6 means more momentum and favorable zone starts and less pressure for the top 6.

From a roster building standpoint the top 3 isn't going to change, and unless Jesper/Nico finish the season with a shooting bender or go on one next year they will probably be a little short. That doesn't mean we aren't a contender, Vegas has a similar level of production from its top guys but makes up for it everywhere else. The plan also seems to be to run back the same dcore from the beginning of the season so there likely won't be much of a difference there.

We are going to need way more from our secondary and depth forwards. Enough to not only hit that "contender" average but surpass it to make up for the slight lack of offensive production from the top 3 and the dmen. Not only do we need Timo to be better but we're definitely going to need 2 additions or one big one to bolster that 4-6 group. Probably an addition or two for the bottom group. Moving guys down the lineup and icing NHL caliber centers should help.

Sorry to overcomplicate things, the accountant in me likes seeing the data on spreadsheets

 

[Nico13]

All we needed was a glass of Cody to see Haula scores again.

Nobody will stop Erik now.

We are going for the cup.

 

[Bleedred]

We gotta win this game tomorrow. We absolutely have to.

We gotta just keep piling up points.

This team shouldn’t be expected to contend or even win a round at all without Jack and other guys, but with where the team was at Christmas, after what happened last year, etc, this team should absolutely be expected to make the playoffs. We should have won at least a few more games this year by the time Jack got injured.

We have no first round pick and even if we did, we’ve already accumulated way too many points to expect to get anything great out of it if we missed the playoffs. Just get in. Worry about going further next year.

 

[dzubrus8]

Seen a lot of good discussion about where we need to add offense to be a true contender. Whether we need more from top guys or secondary guys or the bottom 6. so I quickly put together the production numbers from the top ten teams in the league (in terms of standings but also on paper I would argue). They are all top 11 in scoring (Columbus is 10th).

Divided everything into 2 categories, goals per game and points per game. Categories are
Top 3 forwards in terms of PPG per team (Jack Nico and Bratt for us)
4-6 producers in terms of PPG (Timo, Noesen, Mercer for us)
The rest of the forwards on every team
Dmen

God bless Hockey Reference for including an option to export team data as excel, it only took me a few minutes

As you can see we are below contender average in terms of production, both goals and total points, from every group. Obviously a lot of these are corelated. Better offensive dmen means more forward points, but also better finishing from the forwards means more dmen points. A better bottom 6 means more momentum and favorable zone starts and less pressure for the top 6.

From a roster building standpoint the top 3 isn't going to change, and unless Jesper/Nico finish the season with a shooting bender or go on one next year they will probably be a little short. That doesn't mean we aren't a contender, Vegas has a similar level of production from its top guys but makes up for it everywhere else. The plan also seems to be to run back the same dcore from the beginning of the season so there likely won't be much of a difference there.

We are going to need way more from our secondary and depth forwards. Enough to not only hit that "contender" average but surpass it to make up for the slight lack of offensive production from the top 3 and the dmen. Not only do we need Timo to be better but we're definitely going to need 2 additions or one big one to bolster that 4-6 group. Probably an addition or two for the bottom group. Moving guys down the lineup and icing NHL caliber centers should help.

Sorry to overcomplicate things, the accountant in me likes seeing the data on spreadsheets

View attachment 991072

This is awesome analysis, thanks for sharing!

1 How did you define forward numbers ie 5 vs 7? If it’s TOI that could be misleading bc of injuries. If it’s ATOI that could be an issue if…

2 is this 5 on 5 only? Obviously that would change the calculus a bit given the devils powerplay abilities

3 I wonder how this looks different if you took a random subset of 10 teams for example. Helpful to see top 10 contenders but many of them just made huge trades to add firepower whereas the devils stayed in place

 

[AfroThunder396]

Has anyone made a joke about how Cody is replacing Jack because they're both made out of Glass?

 

[NJDfan86]

Has anyone made a joke about how Cody is replacing Jack because they're both made out of Glass?

Too dead inside for humor.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Glass is an RFA at the end of the year. It's only been 1 game but it would be great if he works out here and can be a reliable bottom six center for us. He's probably getting tired of moving around from team to team so there should be plenty of motivation for him to earn a stable 1 way contract.

 

[Devs3cups]

Rough bottom 6 point totals for contending teams. Put an X to leave out trades that haven't played much or slots that are occupied by guys who are basically top 6 players. Think I kept Verhaege in there, but you can take his out if you want and it's still loaded.

TB
Chaffee-Paul-Goncalves
Eyssimont-Glendening-Girgensons
Atkinson
86 points (BEFORE adding Gourde and Bjorkstrand)

WAS
Mangiapane - Eller - Raddysh
Duhaime - Dowd - X
96 points

VGK
Saad-Howden-X
Pearson-Roy-Kolesar
106 points (not including Stone or Barbashev)

WPG
Niederreiter-Lowry-Appleton
X-Barron-Iaffalo
108 points

FLA
Verhaeghe-Lundell-J. Boqvist
Greer-Nosek-Samoskevich
155 points (BEFORE adding Marchand)

DAL
Benn-Johnston-Granlund
Bourque-Steel-Dadonov
184 points

NJ
Cotter-Haula-Mercer
Tatar-Lazar-Bastian
Dawling
94 points

Again Timo is sucking, but almost every good team gets more from that slot in the lineup. We're on par with Washington who are shooting lights out all over and Tampa who recognized their problem and completely dealt with it by getting Gourde and Bjorkstrand.

Thanks for this! I was curious about goal totals. Using the same players you used, here are the results:

TB: 46 goals by 7 players (Before, as you said, Gourde and Bjorkstrand) - 6.57 goals per player

WAS: 41 goals by 5 players - 8.2 goals per player

VGK: 52 goals by 5 players (Not including Stone or Barbashev) - 10.4 goals per player

WPG: 51 goals by 5 players - 10.2 goals per player

FLA: 61 goals by 6 players (Before adding Marchand) - 10.17 goals per player

DAL: 72 goals by 6 players - 12 goals per player

NJ: 47 goals by 7 players - 6.71 goals per player


This is a MASSIVE problem, and I'd say the #1 problem for this team's struggles. The bottom 6 has simply not contributed enough, point blank. Cotter's hot streak to start the season with 5 goals in his first 7 games also heavily influences the number.

2-3 more goals from each bottom-6 guy (which is not a huge ask, except for maybe Dowling) gives us about 14-21 more goals on the season, and we're probably comfortably in 2nd in the division.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

We gotta win this game tomorrow. We absolutely have to.

We gotta just keep piling up points.

This team shouldn’t be expected to contend or even win a round at all without Jack and other guys, but with where the team was at Christmas, after what happened last year, etc, this team should absolutely be expected to make the playoffs. We should have won at least a few more games this year by the time Jack got injured.

We have no first round pick and even if we did, we’ve already accumulated way too many points to expect to get anything great out of it if we missed the playoffs. Just get in. Worry about going further next year.

Just getting the Kraken and Stars games to OT would have meant 2 more points. Six stupid seconds of hockey.

 

[StevenToddIves]

We gotta win this game tomorrow. We absolutely have to.

We gotta just keep piling up points.

This team shouldn’t be expected to contend or even win a round at all without Jack and other guys, but with where the team was at Christmas, after what happened last year, etc, this team should absolutely be expected to make the playoffs. We should have won at least a few more games this year by the time Jack got injured.

We have no first round pick and even if we did, we’ve already accumulated way too many points to expect to get anything great out of it if we missed the playoffs. Just get in. Worry about going further next year.

It's really not a strong draft year. I really like the top 3 (Schaefer, Hagens, Misa) and there will be some quality players in the top 10, but guys who will be going off the board mid 1st round in 2025 would be 2nd rounders in 2024 or 2026. It's not the worst year to be lacking a 1st round pick.

I like the idea of the Devils scrapping for a playoff spot. If they can hang on to the #3 seed in the Metro, Carolina is very beatable in a likely first round matchup. I don't think we can understate how huge getting through a round of playoffs would be for this group going forwards.

It's reasonable to assume that there will be some big work for GM Tom Fitzgerald this off-season. A top 6 scoring F is going to be the Big Fish, with Simon Nemec as the likely trade-bait. After this, the center depth needs to be addressed and some offensive pop needs to be injected into the bottom 6. But these are all realistic adds.