Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[Killing Joke]

The playoff cut line is projected to be very low right now.

Yep. This is what I'm getting at. Rags aren't getting in. And for teams like Detroit and CBJ, I would actually bet that their point pace is more likely to fall off.

The jackets are getting healthier, they have 2 games in hand on us and are just 4 points behind us and play us in a week or so when Jack will be out, and we lost to them last time we played them when we were fully healthy. Rangers are also only 8 points back with 2 games in hand as well.

 

[SansaStark]

"This core wasn't it" when the most important players are 26, 23, and 21 is absolutely insane, sorry man.

"We need to find another elite 1C" as if they somehow grow on trees. Great take!

Age doesn’t mean anything. It’s the combination of all the things we already know.

They can’t finish at consistently high rates & They do not have the mental makeup or discipline to overcome adversity or gain momentum.

Jacks career is likely going to be derailed permanently. There’s a high chance he never becomes as a good as he was in 22-23. He was already showing this year, healthy, that he can’t get back to that level.
He was always a flawed player to hitch your entire wagon on.
Doesn’t matter his age. You could have the said the same thing about countless other players who never got better or less injury prone from their 23year old season.

We do need another 1C. That’s just a fact.

But defend, deny, delusion delusion delusions all you want.

 

[Edmonton East]

We better see Keefe try to ride top line heavy near term. It's their best option with how the roster is constructed. Bratt-Hischier-Meier. Running Bratt or Meier with a scrub center is pointless.

Sidenote: this silly new narrative that wing position doesn't matter at all is stupid. Sure, they rotate, but it still matters to some degree where they are generally aligned. Bratt refuses to shoot. He's painfully useless on the right side on the powerplay for example, where it's most obvious. People wonder why this powerplay fell off....an obvious big reason is teams began leaving Bratt open for shots, even in tight, while playing tighter D on the other players / in the slot. This is a long way of saying, if Keefe has a brain, under the current circumstances he has to at least TRY Bratt-Hischier-Meier. And yes, Bratt should obviously be on the left when the other winger is also a lefty but a shooter.

Considering how shitty they've been at scoring ES, it's concerning this hasn't already been given a look even with healthy Jack. I don't care how pretty Bratt and Hughes look together against inferior opponents, they don't complement each other enough to have them glued together all season. They both are weak driving the net. They both like carrying the puck. They both are ideally pass first playmakers. They both circle the perimeter a ton. Yes, Jack at least drives occasionally, but gets bumped off the puck. If these 2 "amazing" players truly worked well together, you'd be able to put some 3rd liner JAG on the other wing and get elevated production....which obviously didn't happen.

Quick add: With coaching mostly wrapped up I have time to look at the data and see if my eyes are/were lying. Despite the cushy matchups and deployment, Bratt is only averaging 1.4 SOG/gm at ES....while playing with Hughes. That's pathetic, and again, this successful marriage is/was a mirage.

Bratt ES SOG/gm:
2024 - 1.4 (but sure, glue him and Hughes together Keefe. They are/were inseparable )
2023 - 2.2
2022 - 1.9
2021 - 2.2

Less overall team shots isn't enough to explain away this drop off. If they don't immediately at least try Bratt-Hischier-Meier, I'm gonna lose my mind. It's even obvious this should work from a play style / line construction perspective.

 

[SansaStark]

lol no it hasn't. why do so many people have absolutely no memory of the last few seasons? it's like everyone got transported back to 2014 and have just memory holed the entire devils franchise the last 10 years. Or they just have no ability to discern what a team 'should' score.

Devils xGF versus GF, the 3 prior seasons before this combined (so from 2021 to 2024): +4
2018-2021: -1
2016-2018: -2

The Devils and xGF are in almost total agreement over the past 9 seasons before this one. The Devils have scored within 5 goals of their expected goal total over that time. It's possible there are large peaks and valleys in there - they were probably 10 goals above expected in the 2018 playoff season or something - but come on. Get real with this confirmation bias stuff.

They suck at finishing. If you’re watching the team and take whatever ridiculous bias you have out of the picture, you’d know this.
They stack goals in blowout games and have the occasional outburst in some games.
When we play good teams, or just find ourselves in a tight game, we don’t score. And it’s been going on for years and years.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Siegs being out has been killer too.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

I wouldn't be shocked if we see a deal go down today. Fitz might feel pressured to finally commit to something if the prognosis on Jack is not good.

Has Donato actually been playing center for Chicago? Or has he been a winger? He'd be the guy I'd have my sights set on.

last game or two he's been at center but before that it looked like a lot of time on RW.

Both

Our C depth sucks and got worse with Dickinson injury

Donato has been used as plug into lineup guy because he is one of the few Hawks who hasn't been awful this year upfront, so he has been used across top 9 at both W and C

 

[JimEIV]

Quick add: With coaching mostly wrapped up I have time to look at the data and see if my eyes are/were lying. Despite the cushy matchups and deployment, Bratt is only averaging 1.4 SOG/gm at ES....while playing with Hughes. That's pathetic, and again, this successful marriage is/was a mirage.

Bratt ES SOG/gm:
2024 - 1.4 (but sure, glue him and Hughes together Keefe. They are/were inseparable )
2023 - 2.2
2022 - 1.9
2021 - 2.2

Less overall team shots isn't enough to explain away this drop off. If they don't immediately at least try Bratt-Hischier-Meier, I'm gonna lose my mind. It's even obvious this should work from a play style / line construction perspective.

I always believed Jack and Bratt didn't make sense together. They are both most effective entering the zone with speed and it never made sense to me to have two guys on the same line that do that.

They suck at finishing. If you’re watching the team and take whatever ridiculous bias you have out of the picture, you’d know this.
They stack goals in blowout games and have the occasional outburst in some games.
When we play good teams, or just find ourselves in a tight game, we don’t score. And it’s been going on for years and years.

This is just true.

 

[bossram]

The jackets are getting healthier, they have 2 games in hand on us and are just 4 points behind us and play us in a week or so when Jack will be out, and we lost to them last time we played them when we were fully healthy. Rangers are also only 8 points back with 2 games in hand as well.

The Rangers are horrible. Has anybody seen them? They were getting rugged by Pittsburgh of all teams.

I said this before, CBJ is a great story and they have the good vibezzz. But the last couple months they've just been riding a hot PDO bender. Are they going to keep scoring like 5 goals on 15 shots or whatever like they did in the outdoor game?

All of CBJ, DET, and OTT would need to pass NJ. If that happens, yeah, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

 

[Derps]

They suck at finishing. If you’re watching the team and take whatever ridiculous bias you have out of the picture, you’d know this.
They stack goals in blowout games and have the occasional outburst in some games.
When we play good teams, or just find ourselves in a tight game, we don’t score. And it’s been going on for years and years.

I wanted to see our average margin of victory just to see what was there. Seems we are 2nd behind TB with 2.67 average.

NHL Teams Average Margin Of Victory In Wins | StatMuse

The Montreal Canadiens have a goal differential per game played of 2.03 in wins this season.

www.statmuse.com

 

[Clam Jensen]

They’re going to have to play a suffocating brand of D and ride the Goalies. I have a feeling the trap is going to look like the 80s Oilers in comparison.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Obvious doom aside, I can't emphasize enough how upsetting it is to see Mercer in all these trade proposals. I know he hasn't been great, hell even bad at times. I don't care. He's the type of player the can and probably will blossom into the perfect playoff performer. I don't care if he becomes a life long bottom 6 staple who jumps up when needed. He plays the type of game, even if he isn't currently, that we need on this team. I'm not saying go out and get more grit because we need more, but Dawson is a hockey player we should not let go of. If we do, prepare for years of me bringing him up and "pining" for him while some get increasingly upset every time.

People's perception of him comes from how he came in and looked from the jump and in their heads projected what he would be in the future. I don't care about that, he plays the game the right way and the points will come back. Hell, he's got more points than Palat who we weren't allowed to criticize up until a couple months ago and that's without talking about the obvious line mate discrepancy.

Trading Mercer would be a mistake even if it isn't obvious right away.

 

[JrFischer54]

Obvious doom aside, I can't emphasize enough how upsetting it is to see Mercer in all these trade proposals. I know he hasn't been great, hell even bad at times. I don't care. He's the type of player the can and probably will blossom into the perfect playoff performer. I don't care if he becomes a life long bottom 6 staple who jumps up when needed. He plays the type of game, even if he isn't currently, that we need on this team. I'm not saying go out and get more grit because we need more, but Dawson is a hockey player we should not let go of. If we do, prepare for years of me bringing him up and "pining" for him while some get increasingly upset every time.

People's perception of him comes from how he came in and looked from the jump and in their heads projected what he would be in the future. I don't care about that, he plays the game the right way and the points will come back. Hell, he's got more points than Palat who we weren't allowed to criticize up until a couple months ago and that's without talking about the obvious line mate discrepancy.

Trading Mercer would be a mistake even if it isn't obvious right away.

well what better time then now for him to actually show up and prove that

 

[Devilsfan118]

Obvious doom aside, I can't emphasize enough how upsetting it is to see Mercer in all these trade proposals. I know he hasn't been great, hell even bad at times. I don't care. He's the type of player the can and probably will blossom into the perfect playoff performer. I don't care if he becomes a life long bottom 6 staple who jumps up when needed. He plays the type of game, even if he isn't currently, that we need on this team. I'm not saying go out and get more grit because we need more, but Dawson is a hockey player we should not let go of. If we do, prepare for years of me bringing him up and "pining" for him while some get increasingly upset every time.

People's perception of him comes from how he came in and looked from the jump and in their heads projected what he would be in the future. I don't care about that, he plays the game the right way and the points will come back. Hell, he's got more points than Palat who we weren't allowed to criticize up until a couple months ago and that's without talking about the obvious line mate discrepancy.

Trading Mercer would be a mistake even if it isn't obvious right away.

He's going to get his shot this year as the team limps into the playoffs without Jack - he's going to have to put up or shut up.

Time to actually show something.

 

[longislanddevil]

I’m really bullish on Gritsyuk. The timing is unfortunate because he won’t help us now. This player will infuse some much needed scoring prowess into our lineup. It stinks that we are almost always looking at next year or the subsequent years after that but this forward group can be fixed. Fitzgerald MUST eradicate the dead weight though. That includes Haula, Lazar, Bastian and Tatar. I could include Palat but can live with him as a third line player if I had to.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Obvious doom aside, I can't emphasize enough how upsetting it is to see Mercer in all these trade proposals. I know he hasn't been great, hell even bad at times. I don't care. He's the type of player the can and probably will blossom into the perfect playoff performer. I don't care if he becomes a life long bottom 6 staple who jumps up when needed. He plays the type of game, even if he isn't currently, that we need on this team. I'm not saying go out and get more grit because we need more, but Dawson is a hockey player we should not let go of. If we do, prepare for years of me bringing him up and "pining" for him while some get increasingly upset every time.

People's perception of him comes from how he came in and looked from the jump and in their heads projected what he would be in the future. I don't care about that, he plays the game the right way and the points will come back. Hell, he's got more points than Palat who we weren't allowed to criticize up until a couple months ago and that's without talking about the obvious line mate discrepancy.

Trading Mercer would be a mistake even if it isn't obvious right away.

Or maybe he needs a trade for himself personally, this is the same shit people said about Zacha for years on here. If a player gets traded and does well elsewhere then just realize it was never going to happen here and be happy for them on the side. He wouldn't even be the first Devil recently that's happened for. Blackwood, Zacha, Shara (to an extent, but he's back to being mid) and a few other guys have done well since leaving NJ from the teams. You don''t need to pine for them at all just like you don't need to pine for Mercer if he suddenly finds his game again elsewhere.

 

[Unknown Caller]

I’m really bullish on Gritsyuk. The timing is unfortunate because he won’t help us now. This player will infuse some much needed scoring prowess into our lineup. It stinks that we are almost always looking at next year or the subsequent years after that but this forward group can be fixed.

Another forward drafted by Shero.

Insane the offensive talent pool he put together and how horrible Fitzgerald has been since.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Because you think the Devils will miss the playoffs without Jack. The Devils are 33-23-6 with Jack, the cut line for the playoffs is probably around 90 points, which means you are saying they are around a 9-11-0 team without him. This would make him a 15 wins a year player, but I grant that you are talking about the latest iteration of the team with bad Luke and invisible Haula.

They're the 13-14 Devils who for one month masqueraded themselves as a great team, I don't know where this bravado comes from half the posters here. Cool, if they make the playoffs or barely limp in, that was never the goal with a team that sent their first elsewhere for a 35+ year old goalie

 

[None Shall Pass]

Need centers. Been screaming it for months. Priorities 1 through 3 should be centers.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The Rangers are horrible. Has anybody seen them? They were getting rugged by Pittsburgh of all teams.

I said this before, CBJ is a great story and they have the good vibezzz. But the last couple months they've just been riding a hot PDO bender. Are they going to keep scoring like 5 goals on 15 shots or whatever like they did in the outdoor game?

All of CBJ, DET, and OTT would need to pass NJ. If that happens, yeah, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

Those teams win their games in hand or some of them and the Devils are in already in bad spot with the Jack injury + upcoming schedule. They fell the f*** apart in March last year too, people forget the Islanders were behind them last year when Kakkonen shutout them out in UBS and the Islanders still made the playoffs over them last year. 20 games is still an insane amount time for teams to catch in NJ, this is going to feel like an eternity for us winding down the clock to mid April

Need centers. Been screaming it for months. Priorities 1 through 3 should be centers.

Can I interest you in another 6'7 defenseman

 

[Unknown Caller]

Notwithstanding first overalls (which Shero accurately took Jack and Nico in contested years), here’s the NHL caliber forward talent drafted by Shero and Fitzgerald.

They both have overseen 5 drafts.

Shero: Zacha, McLeod, Bastian, Bratt, Boqvist, Zetterlund, Sharangovich, Gritsyuk

Fitzgerald: Mercer, Hameenaho

 

[Cheddabombs]

Notwithstanding first overalls (which Shero accurately took Jack and Nico in contested years), here’s the NHL caliber forward talent drafted by Shero and Fitzgerald.

They both have overseen 5 drafts.

Shero: Zacha, McLeod, Bastian, Bratt, Boqvist, Zetterlund, Sharangovich, Gritsyuk

Fitzgerald: Mercer, Hameenaho

You don't like Stillman?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

You don't like Stillman?

He's worse than Stefan Matteau was as a first rounder

 

[longislanddevil]

Another forward drafted by Shero.

Insane the offensive talent pool he put together and how horrible Fitzgerald has been since.

We’ve had the 2OA snd 7OA in recent years. These picks can be transformative for a franchise. You simply can’t bust when you’re in these premium draft spots. I didn’t like the Holtz pick at the time but foolishly talked myself into being OK with it. I wanted Rossi or Drysdale. Wouldn’t we LOVE to have Rossi now? This is what happens when you draft need over BPA. Terrible. The jury is still out on Nemec at just 21 and the book is obviously far from written. At this point though, does the selection look like it’s going to wind up being a homerun? Can even the most ardent Nemec supporters feel confident in projecting that at this point? Don’t get me wrong as I still think the kid can be a very good player but at 2OA I’d expect more than that (if he even becomes that player).

It’s egregious to me how Fitzgerald and company has ignored and neglected drafting the center position year-after year-after year. He’s done some good things for sure but the last two years have been black marks on his already short record. I’ve lost faith, sadly.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

They suck at finishing. If you’re watching the team and take whatever ridiculous bias you have out of the picture, you’d know this.
They stack goals in blowout games and have the occasional outburst in some games.
When we play good teams, or just find ourselves in a tight game, we don’t score. And it’s been going on for years and years.

stats aren't biased. That is....literally the entire point of his post.

Yes, they have struggled to finish THIS year. This notion that the Devils of the past x many years have struggled to finish is just not based in any type of fact.

This "they never beat good teams" stuff is also so ridiculous. I don't understand why you guys continue to say these things. The NHL is not the NFL. Good teams lose to bad teams all the time and vice versa.

 

[guitarguyvic]

What was the end result of that Rangers series?

I pointed out long stretches of play in one season (I'll go get more if you want) from both Zajac and Parise. Elias in the playoffs in 2012 had 8 pts in 24 games. This notion that some of those guys never had poor stretches of play is again just flat out wrong. You can't just say these things without expecting to be checked on them.

Elias was nearing the end of his career by 2012, are you serious? I said “prime” for a reason. Are our guys not in their primes?

We used to be besides ourselves if someone like Parise or Kovy went 5 games without a goal. Now we have guys in thei prime who I’m told are part of a top core in the league but can’t be trusted to not go on a goal scoring freeze lasting a quarter of a season. Like, what are we doing here?