Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[devilsblood]

Oooooooof - if you can’t identify a variable like coaching bias hard to dive deeper into this discussion.

bummer

No no no.

Don't try and change the discussion. You weren't talking about role.

You were talking about how getting a disproportionate amount of ozone starts vs dzone starts skews results, and a disproportionate amount of time with the best players skews results.

Don't walk that back now for Cale Makar who has 101 more ozone starts than dzone starts and plays 67% of his ice time with Nathan Mackinnon after mentioning how it was oh so important and impactful to the stats that Dougie has 50 more ozone starts he does than dzone starts, and that dougie plays 38.3% of his time with Hughes (before we even get into the ridiculous difference between Devon Toews and Brenden Dillon).

If Hamiton's deployment skews results, than Makar's results are f***ed to timbuktu.


And again, let us not avoid the 67% usage with Mackinnon.

That's more than most guys have with their LINEMATES, let alone a specific forward for a dman


And once again, you conviently ignore the most important piece of the usage puzzle that Hamilton plays with Dillon.


In terms of how your usage affects results for a dman

D Partner (because the differences affect virtually EVERY, SINGLE, SHIFT)

GAP

Forward deployment because the differences generally, outside of extremes, represent getting an extra 5-10% extra ice time with the top guys

GAP

Competition (again, 5-10% differences against top guys)

GAP

GAP

Zone starts (because the differences represent a very tiny amount of shifts)

Makars usage does skew his stats.

But he plays more difficult minutes then Hams. Thats what the other stats show.

Although that proportion of toi with Mac definitely skews the numbers in a significant way. That was a nice find by you(and why i think these debates are valuable).

 

[devilsblood]

There's also a statistically likely chance that Casey is Burlon, Walsh, Ty Smith, etc.

True. But Casey can skate. Smith and Walsh could not. I don’t have a recollection of Burlon.

 

[Billdo]

Casey at 20 years old has already shown more than those first 2 guys have, in 8 NHL games.

I'm just saying statistically it's more likely he has a career like theirs as opposed to a lengthy nhl career. Do I think that's likely? Absolutely not, but the gist of the post was trading Casey for both wouldn't be a horrible thing.

 

[HoliksGhost]

Any injury updates floating around ?

 

[Bleedred]

Any injury updates floating around ?

I haven't seen any

But going by the original timeline for Markstrom he's due to come back sometime between the end of this coming week and two weeks from then.

I have a feeling he probably won't play the first game out of the break or even the next night, but hopefully he'll play by the end of that road trip.

If not then the first game back from the road trip on March 7th against Winnipeg will hopefully be it. That would 6 weeks since they announced he'd be out 4-6 weeks.

Keefe said Nico should be good to go by the time we return from the break.

Siegenthaler seems to be the big question, as there wasn't a timetable given on him, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[dgibb10]

bummer


Makars usage does skew his stats.

But he plays more difficult minutes then Hams. Thats what the other stats show.

Although that proportion of toi with Mac definitely skews the numbers in a significant way. That was a nice find by you(and why i think these debates are valuable).

I would MUCH rather get Makar's situation and it isn't close.

having Toews as a partner alone vs Dillon means Makar's life is a lot easier.

Again, i think this is a factor you are vastly underrating.

Zone starts differences are about 5% of shifts, and only really about the first 5-10 seconds of those shifts.

Forward differences are again, usually about a 5-10% difference.

D-Partner impacts EVERY, SINGLE, SHIFT

 

[dgibb10]

Casey at 20 years old has already shown more than those first 2 guys have, in 8 NHL games.

Casey really did not play well in the NHL this year.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I'd much rather trade Nemec than Casey. I think Casey is just as good of a prosect but Nemec will have more value around the league in a trade due to his draft position and size. Plus Nemec is going to demand an NHL opportunity next season, while Casey is willing to get more time in the AHL to develop.

 

[devilsblood]

I would MUCH rather get Makar's situation and it isn't close.

having Toews as a partner alone vs Dillon means Makar's life is a lot easier.

Again, i think this is a factor you are vastly underrating.

Zone starts differences are about 5% of shifts, and only really about the first 5-10 seconds of those shifts.

Forward differences are again, usually about a 5-10% difference.

D-Partner impacts EVERY, SINGLE, SHIFT

I can’t say ive done a significant study on the matter but i have followed it pretty closely since Will Butcher was playing super protected minutes with mediocre partners and putting up excellent on ice numbers.

So I do have at least one instance of usage allowing a bad player to succeed.

Hams is clearly better then Butcher but he’s also playing sheltered munutes.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Casey really did not play well in the NHL this year.

Take a look at Burlon and Reilly Walsh NHL careers

 

[Bleedred]

I don’t even remember Burlon playing a single NHL regular season game for us.

And that’s because he didn’t, after looking it up.

For some reason I thought he wound up getting into NHL games for another team after he was out of our organization. But he didn’t.

I think the guy I might have been thinking of who played NHL games somewhere else was Brandon Baddock. Totally different position and was drafted 6 years later, but the initials BB and same first name might have been what had me thinking that.

Baddock only even played 1 NHL game.

 

[Bleedred]

And I just found out that Burlon made a comeback this year after not playing pro hockey for the last 4 years.

He was even loaned to the ECHL by his OSHL (Ontario Super Hockey League) team for a couple of games.

Now after forgetting this guy even existed 10 minutes ago I really wanna find out how he managed to restart his hockey career in his mid 30s after four years out of the game. Maybe he was a coach in the OSHL and had to lace up and get on the ice for some reason?

 

[Eggtimers]

Who out of this list would you guys prefer to add ? ( somewhat rumoured to be available ) . Feel free to add others you are interested in that might be available .
Schenn
Evans
Nelson
McCann
Gourde
Laughton
Palms
Bjorkstrand

I now that McCann and Nelson and maybe Bjorkstrand are in different categories than the others in terms of cost , but factor that in , who do yuu guys want to add to our roster to bolster / adress our lack of forward depth ? McCann would be awesome but the cost would be high .

 

[njdevils1982]

And I just found out that Burlon made a comeback this year after not playing pro hockey for the last 4 years.

He was even loaned to the ECHL by his OSHL (Ontario Super Hockey League) team for a couple of games.

Now after forgetting this guy even existed 10 minutes ago I really wanna find out how he managed to restart his hockey career in his mid 30s after four years out of the game. Maybe he was a coach in the OSHL and had to lace up and get on the ice for some reason?

ben thomson is also on the team

Ben Thomson - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Ben Thomson, 1993-01-16 Orangeville, ON, CAN Canada. Most recently in the OSHL with Orangeville Blitz. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[Clam Jensen]

I never thought I’d see a poster more passionate about a player than Glen is with Bratt, but dgibb is getting there with Dougie lol.

 

[Andre Palot]

True. But Casey can skate. Smith and Walsh could not. I don’t have a recollection of Burlon.

Don't feel too bad, neither does Brandon Burlon.

 

[glenwo2]

I never thought I’d see a poster more passionate about a player than Glen is with Bratt, but dgibb is getting there with Dougie lol.

 

[devilsblood]

I'd much rather trade Nemec than Casey. I think Casey is just as good of a prosect but Nemec will have more value around the league in a trade due to his draft position and size. Plus Nemec is going to demand an NHL opportunity next season, while Casey is willing to get more time in the AHL to develop.

I'm a little down on Nemec right now, but I'd still rather keep him over Casey. At this point.

For as talented as Casey is I'm still wary about his ability to defend in difficult situations. Is he ever going to be a guy who can play PK? Does he play PK in Utica?

 

[dgibb10]

I can’t say ive done a significant study on the matter but i have followed it pretty closely since Will Butcher was playing super protected minutes with mediocre partners and putting up excellent on ice numbers.

So I do have at least one instance of usage allowing a bad player to succeed.

Hams is clearly better then Butcher but he’s also playing sheltered munutes.

You seem to be not differentiating between a player being sheltered and a player who is being put in offensive situations because he is one of the best dman in the league in said situations

 

[Clam Jensen]

Don't feel too bad, neither does Brandon Burlon.

Future captain Brandon Burlon, the halcyon era.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Sometimes a wraparound is good sometines it's bad to let up.

Just like a shot from the point, or


I cut my own toenails today. That's the level of boredom I've reached.

I more interested in when don’t cut your own toenails.

 

[devilsblood]

You seem to be not differentiating between a player being sheltered and a player who is being put in offensive situations because he is one of the best dman in the league in said situations

But Butcher performed very well in those situations.

And while Ham's puts up good offensive numbers, his defensive numbers are pretty bad. And the concern is, and really how it relates to this long running debate here is, this is indicative of an aging d-man who doesn't skate as well as he once did, and is thus the beginning of a trend.

 

[Forge]

Who out of this list would you guys prefer to add ? ( somewhat rumoured to be available ) . Feel free to add others you are interested in that might be available .
Schenn
Evans
Nelson
McCann
Gourde
Laughton
Palms
Bjorkstrand

I now that McCann and Nelson and maybe Bjorkstrand are in different categories than the others in terms of cost , but factor that in , who do yuu guys want to add to our roster to bolster / adress our lack of forward depth ? McCann would be awesome but the cost would be high .

I really have no interest in adding rental this year, though I won't freak out if they do.

McCann would be my favorite by a mile, then Bjorkstrand.

Schenn is interesting because he has the term, but I don't know if I want to commit to all that for that role.

 

[devilsblood]

I really have no interest in adding rental this year, though I won't freak out if they do.

McCann would be my favorite by a mile, then Bjorkstrand.

Schenn is interesting because he has the term, but I don't know if I want to commit to all that for that role.

Schenn makes $6.5 for 3 more year after this. He's 33.

Hard pass.

 

[devilsblood]

Just checked in on the whereabouts of Will Butcher.

Looks like he washed out of the KHL and is now in the DEL. 9 points in 24 games there.

This guy was once putting up the best on ice numbers of any Devils D-man.

Though, full disclosure I was also looking at his numbers with different d-partners while in NJ. Really good with Lovejoy in not especially favorable situations(guessing easy opposition though I don't have that breakdown) and bad to very bad with the likes of Sev's and Vat's in significantly easier situational usage.

Andy Greene was putting up bad numbers but playing some of the most difficult minutes you'll ever see.