Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[dgibb10]

I think the point is that the zone start stats are kind of a flawed way to look at things when the majority of starts are on the fly.

View attachment 977349
This is all 5 on 5.

Hamilton had 60 more offensive zone starts than Siegenthaler but Hamilton has 1,142 shift starts and Siegs has 1,122.

So 50 starts is around 5% of the total starts or about 1 per game. Either way, that’s a difference but not a huge difference.

Dougie gets 2.4 offensive zone starts per game and Siegs gets 1.35. As a percentage that is a big difference, as a raw number it’s not. It’s small as a raw number because most shifts don’t start in a zone anyway.

THANK YOU.

The only time zone starts are ever brought up is when someone wants to push a narrative about a player, and then it's done with numerical manipulation to hide the fact that even in the extreme we're usually talking about a shift or 2 a game being changed (and even those shifts aren't that meaningfully affected, a single ozone start isn't some magic offense potion that some seem to think it is.

I could use zone deployment to pick apart any superstar dman in the league and say he's worse than Brandon Carlo if I wanted to.

Notice how these people will ramble on about impactful every minor difference in forward linemate time or a zone start a game, but will never mention the single biggest factor for a dman, which is who your d partner is.

Perhaps it's because Hamilton plays with NJDs worst dman, which has as comparable than the zone starts and forward deployment combined

 

[devilsblood]

A single ozone start does not have NEARLY the impact that you seem to think it does for some reason

When the difference in on ice shots against per game is somewhere around 1.5, I think the impact is right in line with what I think.

THANK YOU.

The only time zone starts are ever brought up is when someone wants to push a narrative about a player, and then it's done with numerical manipulation to hide the fact that even in the extreme we're usually talking about a shift or 2 a game being changed (and even those shifts aren't that meaningfully affected, a single ozone start isn't some magic offense potion that some seem to think it is.

I could use zone deployment to pick apart any superstar dman in the league and say he's worse than Brandon Carlo if I wanted to.

Notice how these people will ramble on about impactful every minor difference in forward linemate time or a zone start a game, but will never mention the single biggest factor for a dman, which is who your d partner is.

Perhaps it's because Hamilton plays with NJDs worst dman, which has as comparable than the zone starts and forward deployment combined

That's not what I'm doing so you have to reevaluate your thinking here.

You're just way sensitive to the Hamilton discussion.

 

[dgibb10]

I said 80% only because it's factual, but this was only a retort to you saying it's 1% which is not factual.

And I've said a bunch of times Hamilton is the better offensive player and that's why he is out there with those guys. So it's no mystery to me. You're punching at clouds here. (although should be noted the respective xGF's are not that different and Dougie with those 2 is pushing 80% ozone faceoffs)

Dougie Hamilton starts 12.01% of his 5v5 shifts in the ozone.
Luke Hughes starts 11.1% of his 5v5 shifts in the ozone

12.01%-11.1%=1%.

The real difference. It is 1% of shifts we are talking about here.

ZONE STARTS MEAN f*** ALL, especially marginal differences in zone starts.


The xGoals/60 for an ozone shift is about 3xgf/60-2xga/60. Or about 1 goal every 80 ozone starts (45 second shift = 80 shifts in 60 minutes), or 0.0125 per shift

We are talking about a difference of 0.2 extra ozone shifts a game in Luke vs Hamilton.

Let's do some quick math.

0.2x0.0125=0.0025 extra on ice goals per game for dougie.

That would only take, hmm 400 games to reach a whopping 1 goal worth. WOW

Truly a meaningful difference, truly.

 

[devilsblood]

Although Cale Makar

Dougie Hamilton starts 12.01% of his 5v5 shifts in the ozone.
Luke Hughes starts 11.1% of his 5v5 shifts in the ozone

12.01%-11.1%=1%.

The real difference. It is 1% of shifts we are talking about here.

ZONE STARTS MEAN f*** ALL, especially marginal differences in zone starts.


The xGoals/60 for an ozone shift is about 3xgf/60-2xga/60. Or about 1 goal every 80 ozone starts (45 second shift = 80 shifts in 60 minutes), or 0.0125 per shift

We are talking about a difference of 0.2 extra ozone shifts a game in Luke vs Hamilton.

Let's do some quick math.

0.2x0.0125=0.0025 extra on ice goals per game for dougie.

That would only take, hmm 400 games to reach a whopping 1 goal worth. WOW

Truly a meaningful difference, truly.

I also said above that Ham's get's the offensive minutes, Kova the defensive assignments and Luke is somewhere in the middle. Posted a bunch of stats about it.

So the difference is not very significant between high and middle. But is more significant when comparing the truly offensive deployment of Hams and the truly defensive deployment of Kova.

And it's not just ozone starts, but it is often a good indicator, again I posted a bunch of stats above.

 

[dgibb10]

Although Cale Makar

I also said above that Ham's get's the offensive minutes, Kova the defensive assignments and Luke is somewhere in the middle. Posted a bunch of stats about it.

So the difference is not very significant between high and middle. But is more significant when comparing the truly offensive deployment of Hams and the truly defensive deployment of Kova.

And it's not just ozone starts, but it is often a good indicator, again I posted a bunch of stats above.

1 per 80 shifts, 120 differential (both sides) between kovy and dougie= 1.5 goals on the season.

WOW, truly a massive difference. Truly remarkable.

Now, I wonder what the difference between having Brendon Dillon as your partner vs Jonas Siegenthaler as a partner is worth.

I could use your arguments to justify saying Calvin De Haan is better than Cale Makar.

 

[dgibb10]

Did you know cale makar has 740% more ozone starts than Calvin De Haan?

And look at these linemate differences. (side note, what the f***. How is it even possible as a dman to play 2/3 of your minutes.

Makar plays 65% of his minutes with mackinnon
De Haan just 14%

Makar has played 750% more minutes with Mackinnon than De Haan has smh

If you though the difference between Hughes and Hamilton was significant, I'd love to hear what you think about this @devilsblood

 

[devilsblood]

Did you know cale makar has 740% more ozone starts than Calvin De Haan?
View attachment 977395

And look at these linemate differences. (side note, what the f***. How is it even possible as a dman to play 2/3 of your minutes.
View attachment 977397

View attachment 977399

Makar plays 65% of his minutes with mackinnon
De Haan just 14%

Makar has played 750% more minutes with Mackinnon than De Haan has smh

If you though the difference between Hughes and Hamilton was significant, I'd love to hear what you think about this @devilsblood

Makar actually has the most 5v5 defensive zone starts amongst Colorado d-men. Makar plays the 2nd most minutes for Colorado 5v5. 2nd most minutes when up 1 goal, as well as the 2nd most dzone starts while leading by 1. While playing the 2nd most minutes vs opposition top lines and the least against bottom lines.

And oh yeah 2nd most on the PK.

So sure he has a high ozone start rate, but it's one stat amongst many that I have posted. Comparison of his usage vs Hamilton is stark.

 

[devilsblood]

Makar leads Colorado in 5v5 d-zone starts with 134 and all strengths d-zone starts with 239.

Ham's has the least d-zone starts amongst the regular NJ d-men with 87 5v5 and with 91 all strength faceoffs.

You really need to set the bar lower here.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

No game anytime soon, but...

OH WELL


~~~~Lets Go Devils!!!!~~~~

 

[dgibb10]

Makar actually has the most 5v5 defensive zone starts amongst Colorado d-men. Makar plays the 2nd most minutes for Colorado 5v5. 2nd most minutes when up 1 goal, as well as the 2nd most dzone starts while leading by 1. While playing the 2nd most minutes vs opposition top lines and the least against bottom lines.

And oh yeah 2nd most on the PK.

So sure he has a high ozone start rate, but it's one stat amongst many that I have posted. Comparison of his usage vs Hamilton is stark.

So now ozone starts and time with top players doesn't matter?

Great walkback.

 

[devilsblood]

So now ozone starts and time with top players doesn't matter?

Great walkback.

It all matters.

But Makar doesn’t solely play offensive minutes like Hams does. He plays the most on the PK. He plays the most protecting a lead. He gets the most defensive zone starts. Yes he gets a ton of favorable offensive minutes but he plays defensive minutes as well.

Somewhat similar to Nico as he too plays tough defensive minutes but favorable offensive minutes as well

While Jack skews much more heavily towards offense. And Id bring this fact up in the past when people were trying to say Jack is a stud defensive fwd. which wasn’t a slight on Jack but lets be real he plays easy minutes (though his use and success on the pk shows he is expanding his game(but id even push back a little on his pk usage as he will never take that opening faceoff in the defensive zone)).