Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Bleedred]

I wouldnt be surprised if he just kept coming back on 1 year deals.

I've never closed the door on bringing him back on a one year deal around what we're giving him with Montreal's retention. Even when I've been pretty down on him.

I'm just not at all sold on Daws. He'd need an audition at the NHL level this year for me to be convinced of that.

I'm still annoyed by his brutal wraparound goal. One of only two in the NHL so far this month. Elvis the kind of softies Merzlikins has the other. If his AHL play weren't so miserable this year I would have cut that a break.

He's probably our best performing shootout goalie over the last 4 years, so there is that.

Back to Allen - one thing I've been saying is that if we really wanted him back, it probably means he had a really good season and will get a raise on what he's getting this year. Not a raise on what he's getting both teams combined, just a raise from the Devils part in it.

 

[glenwo2]

But Luke's D looks fantastic to my eyes. A good amount of that is his skating ability, a good amount of it is his stick work, and a good amount of it is his ability to anticipate what puck carriers are going to do. But maybe an underrated aspect of Luke's defensive game is his effort level. Sure his skating ability allows him to make up space on a hard back check, but there is a want that is necessary to make that back check possible. And I think it's seen in small space plays as well where yes a quick first step allows him to get to a puck, but there is still that quick twitch thinking which ques the physical ability. Luke has that.

I kind of question if Nemec has that. Truthfully I think his game looks a little lazy. Yes there is a polish to his game, there seems to be an intelligence to his game, but is he attacking the play in a way that we expect a big time defender to attack the play? I dunno. Maybe what I'm seeing is a guy who is not a great athlete? Maybe what I'm seeing is a guy not in great shape. Maybe these things all go hand in hand?

PAUSE.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

Woah 4 girls but only 3 guys? What's going on here???

There's a hand coming out on the bottom left hitting the table.

 

[devilsblood]

you should've added a mute advisory to your post

Had mine on mute. Now I want to hear what's going on.

Well SOMEONE is filming this.

Another chick maybe???

 

[Billdo]

Nied's chafed against the conservative style of play the Devils asked him to play as well. So I don't think it's accurate to say Luke is developing on a path that is unlike Nied's path. Very similar actually imo. You kind of insinuate Luke is playing some freewheeling style of D, I'm not seeing that at all. I think Luke's D this year has been excellent.

Is Luke allowed more leeway carrying the puck? I think that is fair to say, but the game has also changed a ton since Nied's era when he was more an anomaly. Nowadays D-men carrying the puck is much more common, thus we should expect Luke to carry the puck more then Nied's did even if they are vey similar players when adjusted for era.

But Luke's D looks fantastic to my eyes. A good amount of that is his skating ability, a good amount of it is his stick work, and a good amount of it is his ability to anticipate what puck carriers are going to do. But maybe an underrated aspect of Luke's defensive game is his effort level. Sure his skating ability allows him to make up space on a hard back check, but there is a want that is necessary to make that back check possible. And I think it's seen in small space plays as well where yes a quick first step allows him to get to a puck, but there is still that quick twitch thinking which ques the physical ability. Luke has that.

I kind of question if Nemec has that. Truthfully I think his game looks a little lazy. Yes there is a polish to his game, there seems to be an intelligence to his game, but is he attacking the play in a way that we expect a big time defender to attack the play? I dunno. Maybe what I'm seeing is a guy who is not a great athlete? Maybe what I'm seeing is a guy not in great shape. Maybe these things all go hand in hand?

 

[devilsblood]

PAUSE.

View attachment 976320

Oh I get it.

 

[Zippy316]

I've never closed the door on bringing him back on a one year deal around what we're giving him with Montreal's retention. Even when I've been pretty down on him.

I'm just not at all sold on Daws. He'd need an audition at the NHL level this year for me to be convinced of that.

I'm still annoyed by his brutal wraparound goal. One of only two in the NHL so far this month. Elvis the kind of softies Merzlikins has the other. If his AHL play weren't so miserable this year I would have cut that a break.

He's probably our best performing shootout goalie over the last 4 years, so there is that.

Back to Allen - one thing I've been saying is that if we really wanted him back, it probably means he had a really good season and will get a raise on what he's getting this year. Not a raise on what he's getting both teams combined, just a raise from the Devils part in it.

You really that annoyed on Daws from a wrap around goal? He clearly attempted to poke the loose puck away and when Rakell surprised him with speed, he was left in a terrible spot. If he’s successful, the puck goes into the corner and nothing happens. I feel like that’s far worse goals like soft shots I would harp over than a wraparound that amounts to poor decision making.

I do agree that I doubt the organization will put all their chips into Daws as the backup with how much goaltending has been this teams Achilles heel. It’s likely they try to bring Daws back or at the very least they’re going to add some veteran 3G.

 

[NjDevsRR]

You really that annoyed on Daws from a wrap around goal? He clearly attempted to poke the loose puck away and when Rakell surprised him with speed, he was left in a terrible spot. If he’s successful, the puck goes into the corner and nothing happens. I feel like that’s far worse goals like soft shots I would harp over than a wraparound that amounts to poor decision making.

I do agree that I doubt the organization will put all their chips into Daws as the backup with how much goaltending has been this teams Achilles heel. It’s likely they try to bring Daws back or at the very least they’re going to add some veteran 3G.

Its more of the history of a handful of wraparound goals Daws has allowed in his short time in the big leagues. This has been discussed ad nauseam last season with many examples on how he is late to read certain plays and thus late to react

I still think Daws can pull it together. He has excellent one on one abilities. The rest of his game needs refinement

 

[billingtons ghost]

Luke Hughes has a 6.5% on ice shooting percentage and Dougie has an 11.2. Almost entirely just luck.

Skill only applies to goaltenders.

Bc shooting % is soooooo different luckwise to SV%.

Oh, wait, it's the exact analogue. How about that.

Luke's shooting% would be higher if he shot the puck when he should shoot the puck. He's a little green yet in the shot selection dept compared to Dougie.

 

[Bleedred]

You really that annoyed on Daws from a wrap around goal? He clearly attempted to poke the loose puck away and when Rakell surprised him with speed, he was left in a terrible spot. If he’s successful, the puck goes into the corner and nothing happens. I feel like that’s far worse goals like soft shots I would harp over than a wraparound that amounts to poor decision making.

I do agree that I doubt the organization will put all their chips into Daws as the backup with how much goaltending has been this teams Achilles heel. It’s likely they try to bring Daws back or at the very least they’re going to add some veteran 3G.

There have only been two wraparound goals in the month of February in the NHL. That one and one on Merzlikins on Saturday night.

Those “Soft shots” like ones from bad angles that go through either the goalie and the pads or goalie and the post are much more common. I see one of those every other night, sometimes nightly if there’s a good number of games on.

I actually notice a lot more goals caused by goalie giveaways.

The wraparound is pretty rare nowadays and after that one I’m now making it a point to count just how many of those I see the rest of the year. And in 9 NHL game nights and 66 games (I think I counted that right?) in February I’ve seen only those two. I can’t remember the last one before that, but I’m sure there were some in January.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Skill only applies to goaltenders.

Bc shooting % is soooooo different luckwise to SV%.

Oh, wait, it's the exact analogue. How about that.

Luke's shooting% would be higher if he shot the puck when he should shoot the puck. He's a little green yet in the shot selection dept compared to Dougie.

You don’t get it. The goalie comparison shows you really really don’t get it.

 

[devilsblood]

Luke's shooting% would be higher if he shot the puck when he should shoot the puck. He's a little green yet in the shot selection dept compared to Dougie.

On ice shooting %. Not individual.

Individually Luke's 5v5 is actually better then Dougies. Outscoring him 4 goals to 3.

Luke has none on the PP, while Dougie has 5, but PP1 vs PP2 and all.

 

[Whaddagoal]

There have only been two wraparound goals in the month of February in the NHL. That one and one on Merzlikins on Saturday night.

Those “Soft shots” like ones from bad angles that go through either the goalie and the pads or goalie and the post are much more common. I see one of those every other night, sometimes nightly if there’s a good number of games on.

I actually notice a lot more goals caused by goalie giveaways.

The wraparound is pretty rare nowadays and after that one I’m now making it a point to count just how many of those I see the rest of the year. And in 9 NHL game nights and 66 games (I think I counted that right?) in February I’ve seen only those two. I can’t remember the last one before that, but I’m sure there were some in January.

Next up - your new Special assignment coach: Bleedred.

Love your analysis....!

 

[Bleedred]

Next up - your new Special assignment coach: Bleedred.

Love your analysis....!

Thanks.

I’m only now keeping track of the wraparounds because after I said “Trust me wraparounds do not happen all that often. I don’t see many of them” in that GDT, one person told me in their own words that when someone says “Trust me” before something it’s usually a load of bullshit.

So now here I am counting exactly how many wraparound goals happen, because even I didn’t know the exact number. All I knew was that it wasn’t very much.

Now someone can disagree with me all they want about what is and isn’t a bad goal. But they can’t argue with me about how often wraparound goals happen, unless they also wanna watch every single goal and see for themselves. And so far we got two in the month of February out of however many hundred non-empty net goals.

Now maybe there’s a sites out there that track wraparound goals themselves. And what they or the league would consider a wraparound goal may make their number higher than what I’m counting. If they’re counting things like a puck off the backboards where a guy puts the puck into the net from behind the goal line at the side of the net. Or if there’s a net mouth scramble and the goalie gets caught up in it and can’t get back over to make the save. Maybe even if a guy goes around the net and the goalie gets back in time and makes the initial save, but the goal is scored on the rebound. I’m not counting those.

When I say wraparound goal I mean when a guy skates around the back of the net with the puck and beats the goalie back to the other post and puts it in on the FIRST try.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Thanks.

I’m only now keeping track of the wraparounds because after I said “Trust me wraparounds do not happen all that often. I don’t see many of them” in that GDT, one person told me in their own words that when someone says “Trust me” before something it’s usually a load of bullshit.

So now here I am counting exactly how many wraparound goals happen, because even I didn’t know the exact number. All I knew was that it wasn’t very much.

Now someone can disagree with me all they want about what is and isn’t a bad goal. But they can’t argue with me about how often wraparound goals happen, unless they also wanna watch every single goal and see for themselves. And so far we got two in the month of February out of however many hundred non-empty net goals.

Now maybe there’s a sites out there that track wraparound goals themselves. And what they or the league would consider a wraparound goal may make their number higher than what I’m counting. If they’re counting things like a puck off the backboards where a guy puts the puck into the net from behind the goal line at the side of the net. Or if there’s a net mouth scramble and the goalie gets caught up in it and can’t get back over to make the save. Maybe even if a guy goes around the net and the goalie gets back in time and makes the initial save, but the goal is scored on the rebound. I’m not counting those.

When I say wraparound goal I mean when a guy skates around the back of the net with the puck and beats the goalie back to the other post and puts it in on the FIRST try.

Ah yes, I remember that exchange in that GDT with someone saying that. Thank you for your deep dig to prove it thoroughly. At the time I thought you were implicitly right anyway.

The last "proper" wrap around I remember NJD score was Bratt, and he does it maybe once a season or twice over 3 seasons. And I'd imagine that trend is the same across the league.

They are very rare - thanks for digging into it.

 

[Bleedred]

Ah yes, I remember that exchange in that GDT with someone saying that. Thank you for your deep dig to prove it thoroughly. At the time I thought you were implicitly right anyway.

The last "proper" wrap around I remember NJD score was Bratt, and he does it maybe once a season or twice over 3 seasons. And I'd imagine that trend is the same across the league.

They are very rare - thanks for digging into it.

There was probably a time where those goals were much more common. Obviously Devils fans have PTSD over two series losing goals to the Rangers on them.

About 8 or 10 years ago the league did something to change the nets, and I remember more wraparounds happening for a little while because of that.

I don’t wanna take a guess at how many of them I see per year or month, that’s why I’m now tracking. The one on Daws and Arthur Kaliyev on Merzlikins on Saturday in the Rangers/Blue Jackets game were the two for the month so far.

Since there’s two weeks without games for this month I’d imagine there will be fewer than March.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Luke's shooting% would be higher if he shot the puck when he should shoot the puck. He's a little green yet in the shot selection dept compared to Dougie.

He should and I think will improve his shot mechanics. I expect he will be good for 15 to 20 or more goals a year in maybe a couple more seasons and will end up as productive as Quinn.

On the slap shot - and he really does have one of the increasingly rare traditional slappers à la Brian Rolston - the windup is too long and gives defenders too much chance to read and get a stick on or block the shot. There’s also too much emphasis on overpowering the shot and striding into it an extra step when getting it off. He shouldn’t need to generate the power from his skating as much as he likes to do now.

Similar issue on the snap or wrist shot. He likes to get it off on the fly instead of using his hips, core and wrists to generate a quicker and harder release. Goalies and defenders are reading it and he’s releasing it late.

And then there’s accuracy. Which is really worth as much as force and release.

 

[devilsblood]

He should and I think will improve his shot mechanics. I expect he will be good for 15 to 20 or more goals a year in maybe a couple more seasons and will end up as productive as Quinn.

On the slap shot - and he really does have one of the increasingly rare traditional slappers à la Brian Rolston - the windup is too long and gives defenders too much chance to read and get a stick on or block the shot. There’s also too much emphasis on overpowering the shot and striding into it an extra step when getting it off. He shouldn’t need to generate the power from his skating as much as he likes to do now.

Similar issue on the snap or wrist shot. He likes to get it off on the fly instead of using his hips, core and wrists to generate a quicker and harder release. Goalies and defenders are reading it and he’s releasing it late.

And then there’s accuracy. Which is really worth as much as force and release.

It does look to me like he has a long stick.

Am I doing it again?

But it does though. Helps with his defense, but seems a bit of a hindrance in terms of puck handling/shooting/passing.

 

[Nocashstyle]

It does look to me like he has a long stick.

Am I doing it again?

But it does though. Helps with his defense, but seems a bit of a hindrance in terms of puck handling/shooting/passing.

There are definitely benefits of using a longer stick for shooting though. You can get more whip with your stick is a little longer. I know Bedard uses a slightly longer stick and he has a missile. But at the same time, Ovi seems to use a mini hockey stick. So definitely a matter of preference and benefits for both. Shorter definitely helps with puck handling though.

 

[Guttersniped]

Skill only applies to goaltenders.

Bc shooting % is soooooo different luckwise to SV%.

Oh, wait, it's the exact analogue. How about that.

Luke's shooting% would be higher if he shot the puck when he should shoot the puck. He's a little green yet in the shot selection dept compared to Dougie.

They were referring to On Ice Shooting % which is the combined shooting % of every player on the ice.

SH% - Percentage of Shots for that player's team while that player is on the ice that were Goals. GF*100/SF

Hamilton gets the most offensive starts with our top offensive forwards and that improves offensive results.

To be clear, I believe he’s an elite offensive defenseman and I also believe defensemen play key offensive roles. Seems obvious but this debate has gone in some weird directions lol.

 

[billingtons ghost]

He should and I think will improve his shot mechanics. I expect he will be good for 15 to 20 or more goals a year in maybe a couple more seasons and will end up as productive as Quinn.

On the slap shot - and he really does have one of the increasingly rare traditional slappers à la Brian Rolston - the windup is too long and gives defenders too much chance to read and get a stick on or block the shot. There’s also too much emphasis on overpowering the shot and striding into it an extra step when getting it off. He shouldn’t need to generate the power from his skating as much as he likes to do now.

Similar issue on the snap or wrist shot. He likes to get it off on the fly instead of using his hips, core and wrists to generate a quicker and harder release. Goalies and defenders are reading it and he’s releasing it late.

And then there’s accuracy. Which is really worth as much as force and release.

Nice breakdown. Yeah I agree. I think anyone who watched Brian Rafalski saw what good point decisions and shot selection look like. I think he also misses the net alot, in addition to getting shot attempts blocked as you say.

My main beef is that I think with his mobility, he creates tons of opportunities every second he's on the move, and he should probably get a shot off within a few strides, as soon as he's changed angles, rather than lug the puck to the circle or around behind. If he gets shots off quickly, his teammates are timing their glide into position around the net.

If he is a bit more timely with his release, he catches goalies before they are set, defenders before they recover, and teammates in position for rebounds or to receive passes.

 

[billingtons ghost]

They were referring to On Ice Shooting % which is the combined shooting % of every player on the ice.




Hamilton gets the most offensive starts with our top offensive forwards and that improves offensive results.

To be clear, I believe he’s an elite offensive defenseman and I also believe defensemen play key offensive roles. Seems obvious but this debate has gone in some weird directions lol.


View attachment 976592

Thanks for the explanation. And yeah Pp2 and other stuff play a role. As @SteveCangialosi123 so aptly pointed out, I still don't get how waving your hands and saying luck makes my explanation of 'a more timely release of the puck, with goaltenders out of position and teammates in position and defenders unbalanced and unable to block shots would benefit shooting % (both individual and team on ice)'
wrong, or just go away... Sorry to belabor the point if I'm wrong. I said 'skill' and not shooting skill specifically.

(And if on ice shooting % isn't the analogue to SV%. (I guess excepting the times when teams play more than one goalie simultaneously or empty net goals) then what is?)

 

[Guttersniped]

Thanks for the explanation. And yeah Pp2 and other stuff play a role. As @SteveCangialosi123 so aptly pointed out, I still don't get how waving your hands and saying luck makes my explanation of 'a more timely release of the puck, with goaltenders out of position and teammates in position and defenders unbalanced and unable to block shots would benefit shooting % (both individual and team on ice)'
wrong, or just go away... Sorry to belabor the point if I'm wrong. I said 'skill' and not shooting skill specifically.

(And if on ice shooting % isn't the analogue to SV%. (I guess excepting the times when teams play more than one goalie simultaneously or empty net goals) then what is?)

They were discussing 5v5 On Ice Shooting % when referring to Dougie 11.11% vs Luke 6.50%.

That is high for Dougie, so it will most likely go down.


And it isn’t Dougie driven, he’s not shooting all that well 5v5.


5v5 Luke is shooting 6.90% vs Dougie’s 2.86%, if anything he needs to get more shots. (Not that Luke’s shot can’t be improved and hopefully will be.)



On Ice SV% is analogous to On Ice SH%

SV% - Percentage of Shots against that player's team while that player is on the ice that were not Goals. GA*100/SA

 

[MasterofGrond]

Srt of an aside here, but the important thing to remember about OZ start % etc is that 60%+ of shifts start on the fly and another 15% or so start in the neutral zone, and none of those are included in that percentage. So even when you see a number is like 70% WOW it's far less impactful than you might think because we're actually talking about something like 25% of total shifts they start in the game.

Also some people forget to limit it to 5on5 stats and in that case it will obviously be biased one way or the other depending on deployment.

Anyway, stats are good, but context is key.

 

[dgibb10]

They were discussing 5v5 On Ice Shooting % when referring to Dougie 11.11% vs Luke 6.50%.

That is high for Dougie, so it will most likely go down.
View attachment 976619

And it isn’t Dougie driven, he’s not shooting all that well 5v5.
View attachment 976621

5v5 Luke is shooting 6.90% vs Dougie’s 2.86%, if anything he needs to get more shots. (Not that Luke’s shot can’t be improved and hopefully will be.)
View attachment 976623


On Ice SV% is analogous to On Ice SH%

At 5v5 it should go down for dougie, but on the counterpoint it should go UP on the PP.

Overall, at all strengths, Hamilton:

4.98 xGF/60, and 4.94 GF/60 (both of those marks are 1st in the league btw)