Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[TheBeerNerd]

Siegs seems like he dodged a bullet with the worst case scenario, much like Markstrom. Just get to the playoffs and we'll be fine.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Since basic mistakes in structuring and argumentation were made, we will have to explain as much as possible on simple things.

Firstly, Nemec critically did not do anything more against than Jiricek, so that his price would be critically higher.

Nemec was a better defender in D zone than Luke Hughes was last year. This year, he did not have the opportunity to properly demonstrate his qualities and capabilities against the background of injury and competition on the right side. Evaluating his defensive performance after injury, paired with Casey, is not an objective assessment method. Because, paired with Casey, it was Casey, despite his talents in attack, who had obvious problems in D zone. In a recent match against Buffalo, Nemec didn't look any worse in his zone in compare with Luke.

His offensive game is not as impressive as Luke's, but Luke's game is not an objective factor for evaluating all defenders and specifically Nemec, who could play in the NHL only last year as 19yo and overall has other tools.

On all other levels, Nemec performed well offensively, and in general, under the circumstances, he could not have done more at the moment to be a disappointment. At the moment, he was gaining enough points at all levels and showed high-quality play, including a more confident game in the NHL year ago, this is not underperforming. In order to demonstrate overperforming, he needed to have no injury and less competition - he is not in these circumstances.

Now let's move on to the criteria for evaluating an asset and the benefits of selling it. In this case, we have a young player, whose price was roughly indicated to us by Jiricek's trade - maybe a little more, maybe a little less. Selling such a young player at such a price (picks in roiunds 1 and 2 are assets that will or will not turn into something only after a while, they will definitely not turn into a high draft pick) we will compare it with the sale of bitcoin, because unfortunately we have to use such categories. In this case, our "Nemeccoin" was purchased by the team for a high price (second pick OA), and we will sell it at a reduced cost at the very beginning. At one time, bitcoin was worth $30, and someone was selling it for a dollar. Nemec, due to his talents, can grow a lot, because already at the age of 19 he demonstrated the ability to competently play at the NHL level - with childish mistakes but better positionally than Luke, Power and even Edvinsson, who were older year ago(Edvinsson finally started to play regularly only this season and he looks like a player on the level with Luke). Whether Nemec will grow up to be the defender of the second pair or the defender of the first pair, we do not know. But the late picks of the 1st round and the picks of the second round are assets that more often provide an opportunity to purchase a player for rent or draft a player ONLY WITH THE HOPE that he will, at best, become the defender of the second-third pair. Everything else is a great luck.

What you are offering is a deal for a quick sale of an asset with a short gain or a small loss. There is no benefit in this deal in the long run. What the Devils will lose if Nemec doesn't get better can't even come close to what Nemec is likely to become or at best. The benefits that the Devils will gain in the case of this stupid panic trade cannot be compared to the possible benefits that they will sell.
The only possible exception is to trade for a serious top line player in the package, but even in this case, the benefits are not so obvious, because Nemec is likely to grow into a top-4 player, or maybe a top-2 player, but at the moment he is not enough to make an exchange for a top line player, we will have to pay extra with another good asset (Arseniy\Lenny, perhaps the pick of the first round), which in total will represent a possible big loss, as is more often the case in such cases.

Therefore, anyone who is in a hurry to get a hundred bucks, without thinking about the possibility of losing 1,000 bucks, can certainly justify himself by trying to quickly save some asset. But this mindset is suitable for home trading (this is where large companies that provide the market make great money. based on emotions, fears, lack of thinking and banal mathematical literacy), but is not suitable for managing a big club, which includes players with multi-year contracts, who are given long-term tasks. Naturally, Fitzgerald also has a short task - to try to win the Cup now, but for this the Devils have cheaper, less significant, less talented assets. He should keep assets that will bring great benefits over a long distance. If he's a competent manager, of course. If he thinks in terms of quick benefits, then our club has problems.

Nemec still has defensive issues even in Utica, his mobility isn’t good enough to make up for his positioning mistakes and he’s not strong or physical enough in his own zone.

Your analogy assumes that Nemec works out and that the pieces you would get back don’t. It ignores a difference in evaluation both in terms of Nemec and the potential returning piece or pieces. If I rate Nemec as a 6/10 and I get back a 7/10 young forward prospect, how would I be trading a potential $1000 for $100? If anything I would be selling high in this scenario and potentially buying low on an asset/player that I view as a stronger asset long term.

At one point one could have used Holtz’s draft status and performance in AHL as justification for not trading him, obviously trading him sooner than when we did would have provided better short term and long term value then when his value tanked. And I’m not saying that Nemec will be a bust like Holtz but I do think his long term potential isn’t commensurate to his 2nd overall pick draft status or current expectations.

 

[devilsfan950003]

I think Allen is making a strong case to be brought back on a 1 year contract with Marky.

YES! Not sure he'd take a team friendly contract, but he's been playing great since Markstrom got hurt. Plus, is Daws ready for NHL backup ? Not sure there.

Bring Allen back for another year !

 

[Guadana]

Nemec still has defensive issues even in Utica, his mobility isn’t good enough to make up for his positioning mistakes and he’s not strong or physical enough in his own zone.

Your analogy assumes that Nemec works out and that the pieces you would get back don’t. It ignores a difference in evaluation both in terms of Nemec and the potential returning piece or pieces. If I rate Nemec as a 6/10 and I get back a 7/10 young forward prospect, how would I be trading a potential $1000 for $100? If anything I would be selling high in this scenario and potentially buying low on an asset/player that I view as a stronger asset long term.

At one point one could have used Holtz’s draft status and performance in AHL as justification for not trading him, obviously trading him sooner than when we did would have provided better short term and long term value then when his value tanked. And I’m not saying that Nemec will be a bust like Holtz but I do think his long term potential isn’t commensurate to his 2nd overall pick draft status or current expectations.

Luke still has defensive issues, Nemec doesnt look worser in recent NHL games. Nemec is good enough to be at least top-4 piece long term. Its more than late first and second. He is mobile and smart enough. Holtz wasnt. He was one trick pony. Top-4 long term young defenseman is more than short rent of middle six/second line forward(trade forward compensation for late first) or "chances" to draft future top-4 defenseman by late first and second round picks. In the future.
Short and clear. If you want tp use an argument for trading Nemec because of Holtz, who played enough in NHL, who was only about shot and even couldnt put himself in the shot position, than again - sorry, your advice about long term success isnt good.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Yeah, I don't exactly know what Nemec will become but I think it's clear he will be something. He's not going to scrub out of the league, he is clearly an NHL player. Will he ever reach his ceiling? Who knows. But he won't be a bust.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Yeah, I don't exactly know what Nemec will become but I think it's clear he will be something. He's not going to scrub out of the league, he is clearly an NHL player. Will he ever reach his ceiling? Who knows. But he won't be a bust.

Yeah, the jury is still very much out on what Nemec can become. Of course I want him to grow into that 2-way legit top pairing defenseman. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if he has more of an Adam Larsson-type impact. Larsson never really met his draft position, but he’s clearly carved himself a nice career as a rock solid 20+ mins a night defenseman who can add an little offense every now and then. Nemec definitely has a higher offensive ceiling though.

 

[Smitty426]

Siegs seems like he dodged a bullet with the worst case scenario, much like Markstrom. Just get to the playoffs and we'll be fine.

I read somewhere it was broken ankle and he's having surgery. Just talk online but if true he really didn't dodge the bullet

 

[Nubmer6]

I read somewhere it was broken ankle and he's having surgery. Just talk online but if true he really didn't dodge the bullet

I'd much rather have a broken ankle than a torn ligament. It's a fixed recovery time with minimal impact in the future. In that respect, I consider that dodging a bullet.

 

[Smitty426]

I'd much rather have a broken ankle than a torn ligament. It's a fixed recovery time with minimal impact in the future. In that respect, I consider that dodging a bullet.

Gotcha

 

[BluesReport25]

St. Louis Blues fan here. First off, I love how active this board is compared to the St. Louis board, lots of active and engaging talk that is fun to read through.

Reading through the last few pages, I'm shocked more people aren't talking about Brayden Schenn. He fits exactly what you guys need at 3C.

To summarize Schenn's play, last year was very rough (for Schenn and really the entire team). Most Blues fans thought Schenn was going to fall off big time. But this year is a different story and Schenn looks back to his old power forward straight-line game. The Blues have been a low scoring team and Schenn played with bad linemates to start the year, so Schenn is pacing for around 50 points. He consistently brings it every night and on a contender, he would be an amazing 2C or 3C. I also see him as a great fit to play with Meier.

The Blues could either retain on Schenn's contract or take back a bad contract like Palat, Haula, or Dillon

The Blues biggest needs are younger center or dmen prospects who are NHL ready or close to NHL ready. I was looking at New Jersey's prospect pool, and they have everything the Blues want and need. They have 3 dmen in Nemec, Casey, and Silayev who all fit the bill and then Mercer as that young center/winger. They also have Gritsyuk who I think would fit the bill.

The reported return for Schenn would have to be "mammoth", but I see him around the Elias Lindholm rental value. I would say Schenn would have more value than Lindholm if the Blues retained on his contract which they could do. The other Blue who I think would be a great fit is Toropchenko but his value is likely low because he's been insanely unlucky this year.

Thoughts? What would New Jersey fans be willing to give up for Schenn? Is Silayev an untouchable?

 

[TheBeerNerd]

Someone touched on Schenn but that contract is a bit much for someone who's on the downswing. And SIlayev isn't going anywhere for the time being.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Luke still has defensive issues, Nemec doesnt look worser in recent NHL games. Nemec is good enough to be at least top-4 piece long term. Its more than late first and second. He is mobile and smart enough. Holtz wasnt. He was one trick pony. Top-4 long term young defenseman is more than short rent of middle six/second line forward(trade forward compensation for late first) or "chances" to draft future top-4 defenseman by late first and second round picks. In the future.
Short and clear. If you want tp use an argument for trading Nemec because of Holtz, who played enough in NHL, who was only about shot and even couldnt put himself in the shot position, than again - sorry, your advice about long term success isnt good.

Luke is also an elite skater with tons of skill, If Nemec had comparable skating and skill then of course you could overlook defensive lapses but Nemec doesn’t have dynamic offense/transition ability.

Nemec has potential to be a top 4 piece, he doesn’t have the floor of a top 4 piece.

You also keep insinuating that Nemec’s value in a trade would be a late 1st and 2nd. He has more value than Jiricek and I think the Devils could get a very good return back for Nemec, that would be worth trading him.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Someone touched on Schenn but that contract is a bit much for someone who's on the downswing. And SIlayev isn't going anywhere for the time being.

Exactly. At face value, Schenn would be a great addition and exactly what they need. But when you consider everything else, age, contract, cost…it’s not as appealing.

 

[MB3]

Saliyev wouldn't be included in a Schenn trade.

You mention Lindholm as a comp, but Lindholm was traded as a 28 year old, two years removed from a 42-goal 82-point campaign where he was playing 20 minutes a game and getting Selke votes. Schenn is now 5 years older than Lindholm was and hasn't ever in his career sniffed a season like that. The Devils organizational depth at forward is, uh, depressing -- so I don't think Gritsyuk would be included anywhere either.

"Mammoth" seems like wishful thinking at best, and if the player's value to St Louis is such that it really would require a "mammoth" offer I'd be surprised if he were traded. I really like the player, I think he might be a perfect fit for the Devils especially if the Blues retain his salary down to ~4-4.5m per year. But if you're looking at the Lindholm trade as a comp, I feel like you're setting yourself up for some mammoth big sad (getting an already-in-the-league top-6 forward who, at the time, was scoring at a near-PPG pace).

I could talk myself into something around Casey+ for a significantly retained Faksa and a $4m Schenn.

Exactly. At face value, Schenn would be a great addition and exactly what they need. But when you consider everything else, age, contract, cost…it’s not as appealing.

Schenn if retained down to $4m is pretty great. Especially if the cap goes up even half as much as they project... A $4m player in 2027 is the same percentage of the cap as a $2.4m player in 2025 -- so somewhere between what we're paying Tatar and Noesen.

 

[BluesReport25]

My comparison to Lindholm is Vancouver gave up what they did for one cup run with him. You would be getting 3 cup runs out of Schenn which I think significantly boosts his value. I would also argue that Schenn at this stage in his career brings more to a team than Lindholm did last year and this year. Lindholm had one outlier year and then dropped back down to earth.

The Blues could retain Schenn down to $3,250,000 for the remainder of his deal and take back someone like Haula to fill in at center here which is another 3+ million, so I don't think salary is a big concern.

I appreciate the other feedback!

 

[Bone Density]

Obviously, there is more to the game than points, but didn't realize Toropchenko only has one goal. I like the player, hopefully he can bounce back to a 25-30pt guy.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Obviously, there is more to the game than points, but didn't realize Toropchenko only has one goal. I like the player, hopefully he can bounce back to a 25-30pt guy.

Who? Lol

 

[Bone Density]

Who? Lol

The Blues player mentioned above in the post about Schenn. 6'6 with decent speed for his size and physicality. Not a bad option for depth but he hasn't produced anything offensively.

 

[Nocashstyle]

The Blues player mentioned above in the post about Schenn. 6'6 with decent speed for his size and physicality. Not a bad option for depth but he hasn't produced anything offensively.

I like to think I’m pretty knowledgeable about even the more obscure bottom 6 guys in the league, but I have legitimately not even heard of him until today lol

 

[Bone Density]

I like to think I’m pretty knowledgeable about even the more obscure bottom 6 guys in the league, but I have legitimately not even heard of him until today lol

The same happened to me with Ristolainen's replacement for Team Finland, Nikolas Matinpalo lol.

 

[BluesReport25]

Alexei Toropchenko is an absolute beast. We love him here in St. Louis and if you guys were able to get him I think he would be a huge help to a playoff team. He's 6'6, arguably the fastest player on the team, and hits like a truck. He's one of those guys you wonder why he doesn't get promoted up the lineup. He's easily been one of the unluckiest players in the league this year though and just can't seem to buy a goal after looking like a consistent 10-15 goal scorer in the bottom 6. Great on the PK too.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Brayden Schenn even at 50% retained would be of no interest to me. Certainly not for anything like Silayev

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is certainly a hot take. He most definitely has not been outstanding all year.

As for him being one of several big reasons for this team's success this year...another hot take. He's just another guy back there. Guys like Markstrom, Noesen, Pesce, and Kovacevic have been far more impactful (i'd say in that order too).

"one of several big reasons"

Brendan Dillon's physical game and ability to physically dominate one on one battles down low is something the Devils have lacked for years. Opposing cheap-shotters are more hesitant to take liberties on Hughes and Hischier, while soft opposing forwards avoid the dirty areas whenever Dillon is on the ice.

Brendan Dillon has been a terrific addition to the Devils. While certainly not a franchise building block, players like this are necessary pieces of winning teams. There's no "hot take" in saying he is one of the big reasons the Devils are better this year than last year.

I mean he’s been an extremely small reason. The goalies and the other D we’ve brought in have been so much more important. Same with the nose.

We re-signed a Gionta?

 

[Billdo]

YES! Not sure he'd take a team friendly contract, but he's been playing great since Markstrom got hurt. Plus, is Daws ready for NHL backup ? Not sure there.

Bring Allen back for another year !

I'm guessing it'll be Daws next year and then Malek will be in Utica proving his worth until the following year.

 

[MB3]

Brayden Schenn even at 50% retained would be of no interest to me. Certainly not for anything like Silayev

Saliyev aside; If you aren’t interested in Brayden Schenn for $3.5m a season, you simply do not have even remotely realistic expectations for this team at the trade deadline.