Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[longislanddevil]

Not sure why there is a growing contingent of our fanbase displeased with Dillon. Has he really been that bad? Genuinely curious here. If there are strong analytics to back that up, I would understand more (maybe there are). From the eye test, I feel as if he’s been fine and what I thought we were getting. I don’t notice him all that much which is usually a good thing for a defensive defenseman.

I have been extremely pleased with Pesce. He’s been everything as advertised and more. Rock solid…makes great reads, isn’t shy at all to block shots…has proven to have a warrior’s mentality in that regards. I don’t think he gets quite enough love.

Dillon has been better than his reputation around here. Kovacevic's defensive play has slipped and he provides no offense.

Dougie leads the team in 5 on 5 points since the break (20 games). Yes, he has been benefitting from a high on ice shooting percentage, but he's been playing good hockey on both ends. His defensive play has been better than earlier in the year.

100% agree on both.

 

[DumbManHockey]

I'm praying that with the cap rise we don't hear every player qualified by the money they make. When I was younger it was ______ is better than ______ with fun subjective arguments. Just feels like the Dougie conversation is so much more boring regardless of your take because there's always gonna be someone who says well yeah, but he makes...

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I did read it. Very good points made and I 1000% agree that he is a much better player than he is showing.

But undeniably, across the board, everything is down. Minutes, goals, game winning goals, shooting %, takeaways, even strength. It's all down. PIMs and giveaways up.

We need much better. They aren't even using him on PP1 while Nico is out. Palat is being given those minutes. It's bizarre.

Because Timo is only effective on the half boards on the powerplay, lol. We saw this when he was on PP1 for like a year plus when he got here, he's not a bumper or net front guy. Jack/Bratt have the half boards on PP1 locked for the next decade+. If you want to move Bratt to PP2 and put Timo on the half boards there then you'll get a more effective Meier on the powerplay because of his shot other than that you're just rearranging chairs on the Titanic in regards with Timo. He's Laine in that regard.

 

[theoptimist]

Dillon has been better than his reputation around here. Kovacevic's defensive play has slipped and he provides no offense.

Dougie leads the team in 5 on 5 points since the break (20 games). Yes, he has been benefitting from a high on ice shooting percentage, but he's been playing good hockey on both ends. His defensive play has been better than earlier in the year.

My suspicion is that he gets lumped in with Brendan Smith because he fights.

How many of these points are second assists? How many involve Jack or Jesper?

 

[TheBeerNerd]

The more I see Kovacevic, the more I'm comfortable with just letting him walk. He's great defensively but an offensive black hole. We need more than that on the right side.

My stance on Dougie has not changed: let him ride out this year while he has something to give, then re-evaluate next season.

Fitz repeatedly talks about Hamilton’s role in jump starting this era of the Devils, I think he should move him but I’m not sure he will.

He's right, adding Dougie was a major shot in the arm for team culture. I say that was one of the more important adds under Fitz's tenure. We know what he does on the ice but he's just as valuable in the locker room and off the ice as a fan favorite and face of the team's social media.

 

[Bleedred]

They're not moving Hamilton. He's still a top 10 defenseman in offensive rating right behind Makar, Werenski, Q. Hughes, Bouchard, Fox, Karlsson, Dahlin and Harley.

They aren't going to rely on rookies who haven't proven anything to replace him. Dillon needs to go more than anyone.

Dillon a few years ago would have been a nice add, but Dillon isn’t very good anymore and for 2 more years @ $4 million he could be basically a hitting Brendan Smith at 4 times as much per year.

I’m not saying he’s that bad yet, but he’s probably close. I can’t see him being very useful at 35-36 years old over the next two years, other than blowing a few guys up.

He’s too costly for what he is anymore at best case scenario and worst case scenario he’s not all that good.

 

[BostonDevil]

Dillon a few years ago would have been a nice add, but Dillon isn’t very good anymore and for 2 more years @ $4 million he could be basically a hitting Brendan Smith at 4 times as much per year.

I’m not saying he’s that bad yet, but he’s probably close. I can’t see him being very useful at 35-36 years old over the next two years, other than blowing a few guys up.

He’s too costly for what he is anymore at best case scenario and worst case scenario he’s not all that good.

I'm not too worried - At that number, with the cap going up as it is, he's not really that bad. I can't imagine that he would bottom out to Smith level. Would he be worth 4M? Probably not but 2M isn't a stretch and there's always someone in need of D where we could offload him and maybe take a little retention. It's only 2 years too.

 

[Bleedred]

Not sure why there is a growing contingent of our fanbase displeased with Dillon. Has he really been that bad? Genuinely curious here. If there are strong analytics to back that up, I would understand more (maybe there are). From the eye test, I feel as if he’s been fine and what I thought we were getting. I don’t notice him all that much which is usually a good thing for a defensive defenseman.

I have been extremely pleased with Pesce. He’s been everything as advertised and more. Rock solid…makes great reads, isn’t shy at all to block shots…has proven to have a warrior’s mentality in that regards. I don’t think he gets quite enough love.

He’s not nearly the worst defenseman we’ve had the last few years, but his salary and term is a bit too high for what he brings IMO.

If we’re keeping Kovacevic I think Dillon might be the one I’d like to see purged.

But that’s a whole other topic, as I’ve said that I’m skeptical he’ll be worth his next contract if he does indeed get paid something closer to Dillon.

It’s really a roll of the dice. And before someone says “every contract is a roll of the dice” Kovacevic had only played 143 NHL games by his 27th birthday and averaged 17 minutes per game in those 143 before joining the Devils. So if he gets some of the numbers I’ve seen speculated that could really be boom or bust.

Back to Dougie - I still think he’s here one more year after this.

 

[guitarguyvic]

A few weeks ago I was totally onboard with jettisoning Dougie this offseason. Now with some concerns around Nemec I’m not so sure. Tough situation - you get rid of Dougie and you risk Nemec/Casey not being adequate replacement, you keep Dougie and you risk his value plummeting if he falls off a cliff next year (which is certainly possible given that he’s already slow as molasses and has already lost a step this year).

 

[njdevil26]

Not sure why there is a growing contingent of our fanbase displeased with Dillon. Has he really been that bad? Genuinely curious here. If there are strong analytics to back that up, I would understand more (maybe there are). From the eye test, I feel as if he’s been fine and what I thought we were getting. I don’t notice him all that much which is usually a good thing for a defensive defenseman.

I have been extremely pleased with Pesce. He’s been everything as advertised and more. Rock solid…makes great reads, isn’t shy at all to block shots…has proven to have a warrior’s mentality in that regards. I don’t think he gets quite enough love.


100% agree on both.

I think Dillon and Pesce have been more than fine.

Even with the team losing a bit they still have one of the best d groups in the league. They never get blown out and don't give up a ton of goals even when they lose.


The issue is the natural reaction of a lot of fans to realize the team is up against the cap... so when they have a bad stretch everyone heads over to Puckpedia or whatever and overanalyzes every contract.

The cap is going up a ton. The team is in a bad stretch offensively and will recover. Fitz, while he's taking his dear sweet time, is looking for moves and will make one or two.

I see no one is talking about goaltending now given the Devils have one of the best overall tandems in the league.

 

[NJDfan86]

We will likely have more clarity on the right side by the end of the year - how Kovy plays down the stretch will likely determine which path we choose.

Pretty boring I guess.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Also just to be pedantic, Nemec isn’t a rookie.

I wondered when someone would point that out.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Not sure why there is a growing contingent of our fanbase displeased with Dillon. Has he really been that bad? Genuinely curious here. If there are strong analytics to back that up, I would understand more (maybe there are). From the eye test, I feel as if he’s been fine and what I thought we were getting. I don’t notice him all that much which is usually a good thing for a defensive defenseman.

I have been extremely pleased with Pesce. He’s been everything as advertised and more. Rock solid…makes great reads, isn’t shy at all to block shots…has proven to have a warrior’s mentality in that regards. I don’t think he gets quite enough love.


100% agree on both.

Brendan Dillon has been outstanding all year and is one of several big reasons the Devils are in the thick of the playoff race and not a lottery team again. Anyone who says otherwise, I'd have to question their hockey knowledge altogether.

 

[Omar Little]

A few weeks ago I was totally onboard with jettisoning Dougie this offseason. Now with some concerns around Nemec I’m not so sure. Tough situation - you get rid of Dougie and you risk Nemec/Casey not being adequate replacement, you keep Dougie and you risk his value plummeting if he falls off a cliff next year (which is certainly possible given that he’s already slow as molasses and has already lost a step this year).

I think that's why you sign Kovacevic. To the extent those more uncertain things materialize then he is an easy sale at what presumably will be a 3 - 5 year deal at something like $3m - $4.5m a year.

 

[Barry Tallackson]

Kovacevic is a “rental” by letting him walk, he will be overpaid, good for him

Hamilton needs to stay as long as Nemec looks like a 3rd pair dman, many are overlooking that deadly accurate PP shot that other teams need to respect

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Kovacevic is a “rental” by letting him walk, he will be overpaid, good for him

Hamilton needs to stay as long as Nemec looks like a 3rd pair dman, many are overlooking that deadly accurate PP shot that other teams need to respect

that "deadly accurate PP shot" sure doesn't look like it this year

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

I think that's why you sign Kovacevic. To the extent those more uncertain things materialize then he is an easy sale at what presumably will be a 3 - 5 year deal at something like $3m - $4.5m a year.

I think that's the issue. I don't think he signs for $4.5m. I think he demands / and receives more.

He was brought here as a stopgap / depth. And he has pleasantly surprised us. But given then I think he priced himself out, I think Fitz stays the course and gives it to the young D. And probably signs some other D depth next year

 

[Barry Tallackson]

that "deadly accurate PP shot" sure doesn't look like it this year

You’re right, let’s throw Nemec on the PP

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Brendan Dillon has been outstanding all year and is one of several big reasons the Devils are in the thick of the playoff race and not a lottery team again. Anyone who says otherwise, I'd have to question their hockey knowledge altogether.

I mean he’s been an extremely small reason. The goalies and the other D we’ve brought in have been so much more important. Same with the nose.

 

[Omar Little]

I think that's the issue. I don't think he signs for $4.5m. I think he demands / and receives more.

He was brought here as a stopgap / depth. And he has pleasantly surprised us. But given then I think he priced himself out, I think Fitz stays the course and gives it to the young D. And probably signs some other D depth next year

Brendan Dillon, a player with a meaningfully better pedigree, signed for $4m per this past year. He might be able to marginally top that given changes in salary cap, his relative age, and the fact he is a righty but I really can't see a justification for a meaningful amount more

 

[NjDevsRR]

Contracts aside.


I think Douglas gets too much hate in the offensive department. He probably ends up around 50/55 pts.

That will be top 15 in the league.

Dillon also gets too much hate. He is doing his job fine. He won’t be perfect every shift but he definitely has brought an element we were missing back there.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

You’re right, let’s throw Nemec on the PP

we are about to pay a DMan $8+ million/year, he can absolutely go on PP1.

We also have Seamus Casey who can play 3rd pairing minutes and PP time like Hamilton does. Will he be as potent? Definitely not at least at first. But the point remains.

 

[Bleedred]

I do think Fitz might have reservations about shipping off Dougie after this year and may have major 23-24 vibes where we had too inexperienced of a D corps.

Even if you keep Kovacevic and get rid of Dougie, he’s far less experienced than someone his age and there’s a lot of questions whether this is going to be the norm for him going forward on a long term deal.

And with offense being a bit less than what we hoped for this year, I think losing Dougie might only make that worse. And that’s while also acknowledging that Dougie has taken a step back offensively and his shot is not as effective this year.

And I’m not sure if removing Dougie and replacing him with a guy that has yet to produce any real offense in the league is gonna help matters much.

 

[theoptimist]

The more I see Kovacevic, the more I'm comfortable with just letting him walk. He's great defensively but an offensive black hole. We need more than that on the right side.

I've seen us change performance indicators on players. I don't expect offense from Jonas, Kovy, or Pesce. I think I trust Dillon to make a better pass in the o zone because he's played with skills players before. I just don't think it's fair to judge Kovy (by points) and not these other guys.

 

[NJDfan86]

Brendan Dillon, a player with a meaningfully better pedigree, signed for $4m per this past year. He might be able to marginally top that given changes in salary cap, his relative age, and the fact he is a righty but I really can't see a justification for a meaningful amount more

Kovy is younger, right handed, and the cap is going up substantially - he is going to clear 4.5 easy, though as a cap percentage I think it will be less stark obviously.