Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Smitty426]

Honest question- did you watch ANY of the games the last two weeks?

Yeah that post its out of date

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[NjDevsRR]

Amazing what one added center for a lineup does

Palat Hughes Bratt
Meier Haula Mercer
Cotter Dowling Noesen
Tatar Lazar Bastian

Thats much better than what we have been running.

Then adding Nico to remove Dowling is great.

Boys gotta win in Pitt and grind away against Vegas and Mtl

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

look at this garbage lol

 

[NjDevsRR]

look at this garbage lol

Rakell is a guy I always wanted. Wonder if we can poach him

 

[dgibb10]

@dgibb10

Why exactly do you want Spencer Knight?

Because he was a hot prospect 3-6 years ago?

I noticed your proposal the other day but forgot to comment on it then.

I remember other Spencer Knight proposals floating around this year, but can’t remember if those were also posted by yourself or someone else.

In a dougie trade,

he's young, good imo, with actual meaningful NHL experience (especially for his age), and his high AAV next year, makes him much more feasible to acquire (compared to like an askarov or wallstedt) and prevents us from (if we trade dougie) going into what will be an overpriced UFA market for some winger.

 

[Call Me Al]

I don't think they are going to 'just start winning'. They're probably going to lose a lot more games this season! But they're going to win more of the games than they lose. I expect them to basically play at the pace they've played at this season, maybe a little better because their luck in one-goal games has been pretty bad, but maybe that's offset by the fact that the Devils spent most of the season without significant injuries and I doubt they ever get fully healthy.



I don't think they have played that shitty this month. Since December 26th, they are basically break-even in xG and actual 5v5 goals. They're still putting up fantastic xG numbers on the power play but it's cooled off in terms of results, they're middle of the pack. They're middling in xGA numbers on the PK but have better results than that, and their xGF is top 10 in the league (and I think the eye test will bear that out, they're a dangerous PK). They have played like an average team and gotten bad luck vis a vis goal distribution. Yeah, that's not Cup winning hockey, but most Cup winners will have a stretch like this, especially if there are significant injuries.

being break even isn’t something i’d consider a big moral victory even considering the competition and weakness of our schedule. they’ve lost to anaheim, san jose, rangers, philly x 2, ottawa and buffalo. any team can beat anyone on a given night but they gave away a lot of points that should have been banked, even when they were healthy.

their special teams have definitely been a bright spot, no argument there.

but also xgf doesn’t get you in the playoffs, winning games does and they haven’t gotten it done

 

[guitarguyvic]

look at this garbage lol

We are in no position to be laughing off these teams. Devils have been getting outplayed by shit rosters for five f***ing weeks.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Tied for fewest regulation wins in the league since New Year’s Eve…with the likes of San Jose and Chicago. Despite having one of the weakest QoC schedules in that timeframe.

How can one have any doubts about their ability to win a playoff series…hmm I wonder.

 

[njdevils1982]

utica going retro based on when they were the mohawk valley stars in the early 80s

 

[R8Devs]

rakell would be a good get. but I think Casey would have to be reserved for a bigger player trade if he were to be traded though -- maybe they could trade Kovacevic and flip his return + something for Rakell. Rakell+Nemec I think could outweigh Kovacevic's impact

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We are in no position to be laughing off these teams. Devils have been getting outplayed by shit rosters for five f***ing weeks.

I haven’t heard about this

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

We are in no position to be laughing off these teams. Devils have been getting outplayed by shit rosters for five f***ing weeks.

Tied for fewest regulation wins in the league since New Year’s Eve…with the likes of San Jose and Chicago. Despite having one of the weakest QoC schedules in that timeframe.

How can one have any doubts about their ability to win a playoff series…hmm I wonder.

lol here we go with the strength of schedule nonsense like this is the NFL.

They had the 2nd most wins in the NHL through Christmas, only behind the likes of Winnipeg. did you think they were winning the Cup at that point? Or was it "hey, there is a long way to go still!"

also, I guess it is a good thing the playoffs don't start tomorrow! Actually, they don't start for 2.5 months, but yeah ya know, PANIC AT THE DISCO

 

[Call Me Al]

lol here we go with the strength of schedule nonsense like this is the NFL.

They had the 2nd most wins in the NHL through Christmas, only behind the likes of Winnipeg. did you think they were winning the Cup at that point? Or was it "hey, there is a long way to go still!"

also, I guess it is a good thing the playoffs don't start tomorrow! Actually, they don't start for 2.5 months, but yeah ya know, PANIC AT THE DISCO

i thought they were competitive for the cup but now i’m not so sure. they definitely could be if they get back to playing like that.

but like what’s your point? is any criticism of the team invalid because they were excellent in december?

being critical of the team isn’t panicking, it’s just point out that they haven’t been good this month. it’s a straw man to paint every negative post like this. there are plenty of ridiculous negative posters but this team is not immune from criticism with the way they’ve been playing

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

i thought they were competitive for the cup but now i’m not so sure. they definitely could be if they get back to playing like that.

but like what’s your point? is any criticism of the team invalid because they were excellent in december?

being critical of the team isn’t panicking, it’s just point out that they haven’t been good this month. it’s a straw man to paint every negative post like this. there are plenty of ridiculous negative posters but this team is not immune from criticism with the way they’ve been playing

Definitely fair to criticize the team. That is why this place exists? And if this is the roster they go to the playoffs with, even with a healthy Nico/Markstrom, Fitz failed and it was not a good enough job.

But to me, the "OH MY GOD THEY LOST TO THE SHARKS IN JANUARY, HOW COULD THEY DO THIS?!" stuff is nonsense. Strength of schedule isnt a thing in hockey. Good teams lose to bad teams nightly. Also, the "but they've been shut out X times!" is also meaningless. I believe the teams in the Finals were shut out like 12 times combined last year.

The poster I am responding to absolutely IS panicking, as has been shown by his "I DESERVE THIS!" sky-is-falling posts from last week.

 

[Call Me Al]

Definitely fair to criticize the team. That is why this place exists? And if this is the roster they go to the playoffs with, even with a healthy Nico/Markstrom, Fitz failed and it was not a good enough job.

But to me, the "OH MY GOD THEY LOST TO THE SHARKS IN JANUARY, HOW COULD THEY DO THIS?!" stuff is nonsense. Strength of schedule isnt a thing in hockey. Good teams lose to bad teams nightly. Also, the "but they've been shut out X times!" is also meaningless. I believe the teams in the Finals were shut out like 12 times combined last year.

The poster I am responding to absolutely IS panicking, as has been shown by his "I DESERVE THIS!" sky-is-falling posts from last week.

losing a game to a bad team happens all the time, but they’ve lost to a lot of bad teams is the problem. it’s a trend, not a single event. so that’s the issue i have with that reaction.

they had a 12 point cushion on the playoffs that is now 5 points and as low as 3 if columbus wins their next game.

the devils are trending down while other teams are trending up. they have to figure it out

 

[NjDevsRR]

Theres a middle ground here.

Devils had a strong start to the season. Many pessimists did not acknowledge it.

Devils had a poor January. Many optimists write it off too much.

Both have to put all that aside and acknowledge that its crunch time. We have 3 important games the team has to try to win without their captain and goalie. Then a much needed break before a very Compact and difficult schedule for end of Feb and March. If they can put up .610 pts % in that stretch then they are in a good place at 90 pts entering April which is a very light and friendly schedule to close out the season.


Danometer: 5.5

 

[Call Me Al]

Theres a middle ground here.

Devils had a strong start to the season. Many pessimists did not acknowledge it.

Devils had a poor January. Many optimists write it off too much.

Both have to put all that aside and acknowledge that its crunch time. We have 3 important games the team has to try to win without their captain and goalie. Then a much needed break before a very Compact and difficult schedule for end of Feb and March. If they can put up .610 pts % in that stretch then they are in a good place with a very light and friendly April schedule.


Danometer: 5.5

agreed except my dan-o-meter is much lower (or higher). i dunno. more pain

it’s to the point where you can’t go into any game assuming they should win. they haven’t earned that level of confidence

 

[NjDevsRR]

agreed except my dan-o-meter is much lower (or higher). i dunno. more pain

it’s to the point where you can’t go into any game assuming they should win. they haven’t earned that level of confidence

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

losing a game to a bad team happens all the time, but they’ve lost to a lot of bad teams is the problem. it’s a trend, not a single event. so that’s the issue i have with that reaction.

they had a 12 point cushion on the playoffs that is now 5 points and as low as 3 if columbus wins their next game.

the devils are trending down while other teams are trending up. they have to figure it out

Over the course of an 82-game season, even the best teams lose to bad teams multiple times. It is not that big of a deal. Washington is the best team in the East, and they have lost to Chicago, Montreal, Pittsburgh, and Vancouver. Winnipeg is #1 in the league and they have lost to Nashville, St. Louis, Anaheim (twice), and Utah. It is not a thing.

They certainly are trending downwards, though they are 3-2 the last 2 weeks. They have also lost probably the 2 most important players on their team in that stretch and also battled the shits for at least a few games. No one wants to hear excuses, but these things all add up. But like I said, even with all that, the playoffs aren't for 2.5 months. A lot is going to change between now and then.

There is certainly a middle ground of "hey I hope these guys play better moving forward" and "OH MY GOD THE SEASON IS OVER, HOW COULD THEY DO THIS TO ME, I DESERVE BETTER!"

 

[NJDevs26]

Theres a middle ground here.

Devils had a strong start to the season. Many pessimists did not acknowledge it.

Devils had a poor January. Many optimists write it off too much.

Both have to put all that aside and acknowledge that its crunch time. We have 3 important games the team has to try to win without their captain and goalie. Then a much needed break before a very Compact and difficult schedule for end of Feb and March. If they can put up .610 pts % in that stretch then they are in a good place at 90 pts entering April which is a very light and friendly schedule to close out the season.


Danometer: 5.5

That and the fact not every poster who criticizes the team is a blanket pessimist nor should all criticisms and venting get dismissively thrown in the drive by doomer pile. Yes there are drive bys and I told you sos who only come when things are going bad but that doesn’t automatically mean every criticism is invalid or over the top. We all know who they are, ignore them or report them for trolling but constantly calling out people who never answer (or only a smart aleck answer) becomes a bit pointless.

I could just as easily say people are being blind optimists with their head in the sand but whining about other posters and trying to look for gotchas isn’t the answer, in fact it’s just as annoying (and eventually against the rules when it gets personal) when people make criticisms of the team a referendum on one’s sanity and is no doubt a reason the rhetoric escalates.

 

[bossram]

They haven't been the same team post Christmas break that they were before, for a variety of reasons. I don't think those reasons are that they're not actually that good, so they can get back there. It's just going to be more difficult without 2 of your top 3 centers and your starting goalie.

Yep. Not surprising the team looks worse without a Selke calibre center, their 3C, and starting goalie.

They will make the playoffs. Zero concern there.

 

[Call Me Al]

yeah there are definitely drive by negative posters that are annoying as f*ck.

but i think guitar guy should get a little more credit - when the devils were good he was still here cheering them on and enjoying it as much as anyone. that’s a big difference from the guys who disappear whenever they’re on a streak and just pop in when they lose to bitch that everything sucks. he’s just disillusioned with the overwhelming bad results the team has gotten over the last decade.

im definitely not as negative or pessimistic has him (though i am admittedly pessimistic lately) but i understand where he’s coming from and there is some validity to his attitude even if most people disagree

 

[Bleedred]

I’m maybe at a 4.5 on the Danometer. It will barely be a 4 if we lose tomorrow night. Probably just under 4 with a regulation loss. Just over with an OT loss.

Now, I will say this. Normally, every time I see a humpty team on deck since the California sweep, as well as every time I saw one last year from the game 2 shootout loss to Arizona, I usually have terrible, terrible, dark vibes about a loss.

I do think the team will pull out a win tomorrow night. And that’s the most optimistic I’ve been about a win against a bad team in the last month.

I’m really feeling a win tomorrow night for some reason. Not sure if a dominant win like the last Flyers game or a very close one. I’m getting no more reads than that, and I’m not making any guesses on how it will happen or anything beyond tomorrow night.

I feel we will win tomorrow. I think we’ll find a way to pull one out.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I’m maybe at a 4.5 on the Danometer. It will barely be a 4 if we lose tomorrow night. Probably just under 4 with a regulation loss. Just over with an OT loss.

Your ranking methodology is flawed, see a few posts above