Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[guitarguyvic]

The obvious play here is to jettison Dougie before he completely falls of a cliff, which makes room for at least one of our two young D.

Would be absolutely stupid to keep the aging expensive option over the young and cheap one.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I'll put it this way. Does anyone think Jack's done developing as a player? I think he can get better and if Jack can get better, so can Mercer.

We're not winning the cup with Jack turning the puck over every shift. But would I give up on him now? Absolutely not.

I extend the same logic to Mercer and I think moving him is going to bite us in the ass.

Done developing? Nah probably not. But he is 355 games into his NHL career. We are probably seeing his ceiling as a player (production wise).

The obvious play here is to jettison Dougie before he completely falls of a cliff, which makes room for at least one of our two young D.

Would be absolutely stupid to keep the aging expensive option over the young and cheap one.

we actually agree on this one!

Dump Dougie, pay Luke his money and replace him with Nemec.

 

[Devils731]

Keefe is definitely done with guys not feeling well or being tired. There was a slight shift to his tone last post game so the team better come out strong tonight or, I bet, the post game tone will be very harsh.

 

[devilsblood]

The obvious play here is to jettison Dougie before he completely falls of a cliff, which makes room for at least one of our two young D.

Would be absolutely stupid to keep the aging expensive option over the young and cheap one.

This is what I would do.

But I could see trading Nemec for a young center. Keep Dougie for another year or two perhaps, and then move Dougie to make room for Casey.

For while we worry about Hams falling off a cliff, we don't know he will in the next couple years, and we don't know if Nemec or Casey will ever develop into the player Hamilton currently is.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Palat sick lmao can’t catch a break

 

[NJDevils17]

Jack has had some really bad turnovers that have legit cost the team but he’s really not the issue here. Of course he’s going to turn it over more, the puck is on his stick ALL the time. He’s just fighting it right now and trying to do too much because the whole team is in a funk.

There are a whole cast of characters you can assign blame to before Jack.

 

[devilsblood]

Done developing? Nah probably not. But he is 355 games into his NHL career. We are probably seeing his ceiling as a player (production wise).

Well what is his ceiling? What we are seeing now? Or what we saw a couple years ago?

So even if we have seen his ceiling I could definitely see him get back to being a consistent 27g mid 50pts type of player. And while you don't want to overpay that type of production, that is good depth scoring.

He does need to continue to develop. I thought he was a prime target of Fitz when he was calling players out to get in the gym. But getting stronger, A)takes time and B)does naturally occur as a player matures physically. Imo he comes off as way too physically soft for someone whose game is pretty gritty and I think we will see his frame grow into his style of play.

 

[devilsblood]

Jack has had some really bad turnovers that have legit cost the team but he’s really not the issue here. Of course he’s going to turn it over more, the puck is on his stick ALL the time. He’s just fighting it right now and trying to do too much because the whole team is in a funk.

There are a whole cast of characters you can assign blame to before Jack.

I wouldn't say he's "the issue" but you can't write off these turnovers as things that happen because he has the puck a lot.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Well what is his ceiling? What we are seeing now? Or what we saw a couple years ago?

So even if we have seen his ceiling I could definitely see him get back to being a consistent 27g mid 50pts type of player. And while you don't want to overpay that type of production, that is good depth scoring.

He does need to continue to develop. I thought he was a prime target of Fitz when he was calling players out to get in the gym. But getting stronger, A)takes time and B)does naturally occur as a player matures physically. Imo he comes off as way too physically soft for someone whose game is pretty gritty and I think we will see his frame grow into his style of play.

I was talking about Hughes in the post you quoted, but I guess the same is true for Mercer. It is just that Mercer has not done much of anything since the 2023 playoffs started, which is going on 2 full seasons at this point.

 

[devilsblood]

I was talking about Hughes in the post you quoted, but I guess the same is true for Mercer. It is just that Mercer has not done much of anything since the 2023 playoffs started, which is going on 2 full seasons at this point.

Oh Hughes, ya I think 100ish pts is probably his top, but like Mercer we can wonder if he is more the 40+ goal scorer from a couple years ago, or someone who is more around 30. I do think 40+ or 50 is something we see going fwd.

Jack also needs to get stronger and I think we will see that in the next couple offseasons.

 

[NJDevils17]

I wouldn't say he's "the issue" but you can't write off these turnovers as things that happen because he has the puck a lot.

It is and it isn’t. Kucherov and McKinnon are 2nd and 3rd respectively and both have more turnovers in the DZone.

The top 30 in raw turnovers is littered with the NHL’s best players. Turnovers are obviously bad but players who are puck dominant just turn it over more by nature.

 

[JrFischer54]

The obvious play here is to jettison Dougie before he completely falls of a cliff, which makes room for at least one of our two young D.

Would be absolutely stupid to keep the aging expensive option over the young and cheap one.

i dunno i get the idea but he hasn't shown any sign of falling off a cliff hes producing i'm sure hes well liked and respected in the locker but you want to dump him because eventually he will fall off a cliff? then turn it over to a rookie with we dont know exactly what we will get out of? i'm not saying its a bad idea at all it sounds like the right thing but man do you do that when your a contender? or use the rookie to bring in help elsewhere?

are we sure j kovy is the real deal? not just playing big time in a contract year new team? i dunno

Oh Hughes, ya I think 100ish pts is probably his top, but like Mercer we can wonder if he is more the 40+ goal scorer from a couple years ago, or someone who is more around 30. I do think 40+ or 50 is something we see going fwd.

Jack also needs to get stronger and I think we will see that in the next couple offseasons.

i wish that was the case but i dont really see jack doing that

 

[devilsblood]

It is and it isn’t. Kucherov and McKinnon are 2nd and 3rd respectively and both have more turnovers in the DZone.

The top 30 in raw turnovers is littered with the NHL’s best players. Turnovers are obviously bad but players who are puck dominant just turn it over more by nature.

There are stats and then there is watching the games and seeing obviously bad turnovers.

I think Jack's been especially prone of late to turnovers in the O-zone near the blue line which lead to odd men rushes the other way.

Not dogging on him, but he needs to clean that up and I'm sure he knows it.

i wish that was the case but i dont really see jack doing that

Two offseasons ago I was a little alarmed that he came in skinny as ever. This past off season though he had the shoulder.

I have little doubt he will put time in the gym to get stronger in the years to come. He's never going to be a Nate MacKinnon, but he will get stronger. I'm sure of it.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

who needs a job!

 

[Emperoreddy]

I wouldn't say he's "the issue" but you can't write off these turnovers as things that happen because he has the puck a lot.

He does this when he is fighting it and the team overall is struggling. Tries to do too much and forces plays.

 

[devilsblood]

Just looking some of the goals/pts over the last 10.

Team leader in goals is Nico with 4, Jack is 2nd with 3.
Only 4 players have scored more then one goal.
Only Jack is over .5 ppg.
Only 5 fwds have more then 2 pts.
Dougie is the only D-man with more then 2 pts.

Jack is OK with 9 pts, every one else is well below one would hope.

On the PP, Nico has 3 goals, Noesen 1. And that's it.

So the struggles are top to bottom. PP and 5v5. Fwd and D-men alike.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Oh Hughes, ya I think 100ish pts is probably his top, but like Mercer we can wonder if he is more the 40+ goal scorer from a couple years ago, or someone who is more around 30. I do think 40+ or 50 is something we see going fwd.

Jack also needs to get stronger and I think we will see that in the next couple offseasons.

Regarding Mercer. I'm very pro-Dawson, but have to admit it's been bad for about 2 seasons.

Guy is having trouble finishing. If he somehow grows a bit more... I think he could be a great net-front guy on a #1 powerplay. If he toughens up a bit more, i could see him in a Noesen role in the future.

So outside of a future career year, I see him more as a 25-25 guy if he can get back right. Kid did just turn 23... so he is about to enter the so-called 'Prime Years" of scoring.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Our 3C hasn’t recorded a shot on goal since before Christmas. We need the top guys to get it done, but depth is certainly a problem right now. We could’ve easily squeezed out a couple more points/wins with a goal or two from those guys.

Interesting cherry pick, considering since the Haula injury, our 3c is the pluggiest of pluggy AHL plugs. He still seems to have been doing a better job in all three zones and has a better motor than many of the top eight guys I listed in the op.

Yeah, it would be great to get more secondary scoring but the real problem is that it's the 4-8 guys that aren't producing anything and are really just passengers on those lines. Would Palat have any points if Jack didn't gift one on his stick? How much offense is Timo actually creating by winning puck battles or going to the net?

Noesen goes out and we have like zero ability to get second chance shots or deflections. It's all weak garbage from the outside and easy chances for the goalies.

I don't think we need more bottom sixers. We need to get the Haulas, Palats and Mercers out of the top six. Noesen has proven that given the chance he can be that 4th lineish guy that can produce on a top line. All the others can't do the dirty work down low.

If we pushed Palat and Mercer to the third line you'd have a better shot at getting secondary scoring.

Hell demote Timo to the third line to wake him up. The guy sat bc of his suspension and came back and played his best game. I think if there's one head case that needs fixing and motivation, it's him.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Interesting cherry pick, considering since the Haula injury, our 3c is the pluggiest of pluggy AHL plugs. He still seems to have been doing a better job in all three zones and has a better motor than many of the top eight guys I listed in the op.

Yeah, it would be great to get more secondary scoring but the real problem is that it's the 4-8 guys that aren't producing anything and are really just passengers on those lines. Would Palat have any points if Jack didn't gift one on his stick? How much offense is Timo actually creating by winning puck battles or going to the net?

Noesen goes out and we have like zero ability to get second chance shots or deflections. It's all weak garbage from the outside and easy chances for the goalies.

I don't think we need more bottom sixers. We need to get the Haulas, Palats and Mercers out of the top six. Noesen has proven that given the chance he can be that 4th lineish guy that can produce on a top line. All the others can't do the dirty work down low.

If we pushed Palat and Mercer to the third line you'd have a better shot at getting secondary scoring.

Hell demote Timo to the third line to wake him up. The guy sat bc of his suspension and came back and played his best game. I think if there's one head case that needs fixing and motivation, it's him.

Palat, Noesen, and Haula are 7th, 8th, and 9th on the team among 5 on 5 ice time per game. They ARE being deployed as 3rd liners.

Again, the Timo hate is because he is not on PP1 and thus not getting PP points. No player is going to score at an elite boxscore rate without consistent PP time. His 5 on 5 point production is actually pretty good at 21 points. That is more than Nico, more than Brad Marchand, more than Auston Matthews, more than Dylan Larkin, Hertl, Stone, to name a few.

I think it is time to shake up the PP units and get him onto the first one. It isn't like we have been producing a ton of PP goals recently since the hot start.

 

[devilsblood]

Regarding Mercer. I'm very pro-Dawson, but have to admit it's been bad for about 2 seasons.

Guy is having trouble finishing. If he somehow grows a bit more... I think he could be a great net-front guy on a #1 powerplay. If he toughens up a bit more, i could see him in a Noesen role in the future.

So outside of a future career year, I see him more as a 25-25 guy if he can get back right. Kid did just turn 23... so he is about to enter the so-called 'Prime Years" of scoring.

I think his real issue is he doesn't get enough shots off/on net.

At one point he was also a decent assist guy. That's really dried up.

Little by way of assists or sog's is a bad combo.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Im probably just being optimistic but I think once Mercer finds himself a steady line to play on we will see him return to form (and maybe even improve on that)!

Him with Nico and Tomas a few years back was special; since then hes been used as a plug on a lot of different line combinations.

And this can probably be said for others too! A new coach has to try and see what works and sometimes that takes a season

 

[NjDevsRR]

Palat and Haula being out really exposes the Devils weakness which is offensive depth.

Whether its acquiring two new depth/utility forwards or landing a Miller to make the center depth insane, Devils really do need to do something here, and something rather soon.

 

[CalamityX23]

So grateful for Keefe! He's not letting them slide, hope our players are encouraged and respond well.

No poo poo reactions, listen to criticism and clean it up!

 

[tailfins]

The obvious play here is to jettison Dougie before he completely falls of a cliff, which makes room for at least one of our two young D.

Would be absolutely stupid to keep the aging expensive option over the young and cheap one.

Obvious play is:
- sign Kovacevic to reasonable contract
- see how things play out this off-season / coming into pre-season
- if everyone is healthy, shop Dillon and Hamilton and trade whoever you can
- If Dillon, shift Pesce to left and pair him with Nemec

Kovy >> Dillon
Hamilton has a challenging NTC and salary / cap hit (so does Dillon)
No reason to trade Nemec or Casey right now

The issue with this, of course, is Kovy basically replaces Dillon's salary (maybe more), so there's no cap relief. But, that's a separate issue.

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

Mercer has been underwhelming if you expected top 6 numbers. But as a 3rd line RW and the ability to be durable and that he never gets hurt and still so young entering his prime, and a good salary and he can still put up 20 goals, thats value/depth I'd rather keep and add onto instead of replace. That's a lot of ands. I'd be dumb to not trade him for Miller I admit. But I would certainly not offer him or give him up without a fight.

You know what's better then Miller? Miller and Mercer.

He never gets hurt because he doesn't play a good bottom 6 role. He loses pretty much every board battle with 1-2 seconds. It's not that he's durable so much that he's just never in a position to get hurt - he has zero physicality to his game. So the end result is he effectively does nothing.