Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Emperoreddy]

Relying on 10-game sample sizes from past Stanley Cup winners to reassure ourselves today feels like recency bias. Unless I'm missing the point.

Point is every team has poor ten game sample sizes during an 82 game season...which is what we are going through.

This fanbase needs to get a grip

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Relying on 10-game sample sizes from past Stanley Cup winners to reassure ourselves today feels like recency bias. Unless I'm missing the point.

the point is that even the best teams in the league have luls in the middle of a long season.

 

[Billdo]

I don’t disagree with his abilities but having him to go up and back to the AHL as necessary is not a bad thing.

The problem is I doubt they actually do that. He'll just be a healthy scratch and dead cap money.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Again…W/L records in and of themselves don’t tell the whole story. We haven’t the slightest clue how those teams were playing during those stretches. Teams sometimes go through periods where they are losing games they deserved to win.

Furthermore, if we are somewhere between how they played before the break and how they are playing now, that’s maybe slightly better than wildcard. Not exactly high praise for a team that was expected to compete for the division.

I think the usual suspects are downplaying this team’s flaws. The forward depth is abysmal - a single injury to a top player is almost guaranteed to sink the season. Major core players like Dougie and Timo account for a large percentage of the cap, but the former has become a liability and the latter is on year number three of failing to live up to the hype. Our superstar center is great when things are going well, but as soon as we need him most he starts playing like a cowboy and making rookie mistakes that actually cost us games. Similarly when things get tough his sidekick finds a way to score just two goals in twenty games. His brother makes flashy moves on the ice but can’t get the puck to the net consistently and also makes boneheaded plays, he at least has the excuse of still being really young. The rest of the defense is good in their own end but can’t move the puck which is contributing to offensive struggles.

This isn’t anywhere near good enough for a core that is billed to be of contending caliber.

 

[jkrdevil]

Did...did you just choose to not watch last year's team?

Using losing McLeod as a demarcation. Prior to that point the team last year averaged 3.46 goals for in the first 45 games. Following that the goals for dropped to an average of 2.91 goals per game. Now obviously they traded away Toffoli in the middle of that and Jack missed a few games at the beginning and end of that stretch. But even then, the 17 games between the losing McLeod and Toffoli after March 5. They averaged only 2.88 goals per game. Jack only missed 3 games in that slot.

Depth at center matters and has an impact. They were at a 91 point pace going into the Carolina game on January 25 right after McLeod took the leave of absence. They finished with 81 points. 91 points would have made the playoffs (or at least been in that tie). Injuries and goaltending sunk the season overall, but what took the team from the bubble to being well out of it down the stretch was the depth down the middle being hollowed out resulting in the team not being able to score either.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Again…W/L records in and of themselves don’t tell the whole story. We haven’t the slightest clue how those teams were playing during those stretches. Teams sometimes go through periods where they are losing games they deserved to win.

Furthermore, if we are somewhere between how they played before the break and how they are playing now, that’s maybe slightly better than wildcard. Not exactly high praise for a team that was expected to compete for the division.

I think the usual suspects are downplaying this team’s flaws. The forward depth is abysmal - a single injury to a top player is almost guaranteed to sink the season. Major core players like Dougie and Timo account for a large percentage of the cap, but the former has become a liability and the latter is on year number three of failing to live up to the hype. Our superstar center is great when things are going well, but as soon as we need him most he starts playing like a cowboy and making rookie mistakes that actually cost us games. Similarly when things get tough his sidekick finds a way to score just two goals in twenty games. His brother makes flashy moves on the ice but can’t get the puck to the net consistently and also makes boneheaded plays, he at least has the excuse of still being really young. The rest of the defense is good in their own end but can’t move the puck which is contributing to offensive struggles.

This isn’t anywhere near good enough for a core that is billed to be of contending caliber.

we would STILL be competing for the division if we were in any other division basically. Its just that the Caps are seemingly never going to cool off their shooting bender and look to be on their way to 120 points.

Dougie has not been good enough, there I agree. Timo has probably been SLIGHTLY underwhelming, but when you don't get PP1 time, you are never going to be an elite point producer. Is that his fault? Maybe, maybe not.

Luke is 21 years old. This notion that he (and the team) is a finished product and that this core can't continue to improve is nonsense.

 

[guitarguyvic]

we would STILL be competing for the division if we were in any other division basically. Its just that the Caps are seemingly never going to cool off their shooting bender and look to be on their way to 120 points.

Dougie has not been good enough, there I agree. Timo has probably been SLIGHTLY underwhelming, but when you don't get PP1 time, you are never going to be an elite point producer. Is that his fault? Maybe, maybe not.

Luke is 21 years old. This notion that he (and the team) is a finished product and that this core can't continue to improve is nonsense.

A team on pace for 97 points is not competing for the division in any division in any year.

Timo has absolutely been underwhelming, both based on expectations and cap hit. I haven’t the slightest clue how anyone can say otherwise. Even points aside, has he once stepped up at a crucial time with a big goal or play since he’s been here?

You mentioned Luke’s age as if I didn’t. Classic. As far as the rest of the core improving, yeah they could get better. Great. You don’t think we should expect more out of them by this point, now?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

A team on pace for 97 points is not competing for the division in any division in any year.

Timo has absolutely been underwhelming, both based on expectations and cap hit. I haven’t the slightest clue how anyone can say otherwise. Even points aside, has he once stepped up at a crucial time with a big goal or play since he’s been here?

You mentioned Luke’s age as if I didn’t. Classic. As far as the rest of the core improving, yeah they could get better. Great. You don’t think we should expect more out of them by this point, now?

so just to be clear, if we were in the same division as the Leafs (who lead the Atlantic), who we trail by 2 points and who are on pace for 104 points, we would ASSUREDLY not be even be CLOSE to contending for the division title? very bold statement!

here are some "big goals" from Timo, happy to help! and these are just off the top of my head.

Meier gets OT winner on breakaway | NHL.com

Timo Meier scorches a shot through the five-hole on a breakaway in overtime, completing the Devils' rally

www.nhl.com

Meier grabs the lead | NHL.com

Timo Meier on the break, gets the dish from Dawson Mercer and blasts home the snap shot from the circle to put the Devils up 2-1 in the 2nd period

www.nhl.com

 

[Better Call Sal]

Furthermore, if we are somewhere between how they played before the break and how they are playing now, that’s maybe slightly better than wildcard. Not exactly high praise for a team that was expected to compete for the division.

I think the usual suspects are downplaying this team’s flaws. The forward depth is abysmal - a single injury to a top player is almost guaranteed to sink the season. Major core players like Dougie and Timo account for a large percentage of the cap, but the former has become a liability and the latter is on year number three of failing to live up to the hype. Our superstar center is great when things are going well, but as soon as we need him most he starts playing like a cowboy and making rookie mistakes that actually cost us games. Similarly when things get tough his sidekick finds a way to score just two goals in twenty games. His brother makes flashy moves on the ice but can’t get the puck to the net consistently and also makes boneheaded plays, he at least has the excuse of still being really young. The rest of the defense is good in their own end but can’t move the puck which is contributing to offensive struggles.

This isn’t anywhere near good enough for a core that is billed to be of contending caliber.

I'll push back on this. I think this is just as equally downplaying the good that the team was showing from late October-Christmas break. You can try and proclaim them being somewhere in between not being good enough, but we've seen the trials an 82 game season can give. Getting to the dance matters more than where you place. No one wants to play their worst hockey for long in the middle of the season, but there is so much hockey left to correct course to where they were before.

While I don't disagree that the forward depth has proven to be an issue, I really disagree with the Timo assessment. I wish he was more consistent with his scoring, but his per game averages are pretty much right where they have been for his career. I know many get wrapped up in what guys make for a cap hit, but that isn't something I give a shit about. I don't have preconceived notions or expectations for a player based on his cap hit. His first year here, he produced well enough in his short regular season stint and was a bull in the Ranger series. Last year, he had injury after injury. When he was finally healthy, he caught fire towards the end of the season. This year, he's being asked to shoulder a heavier load defensively playing with Nico in the way Keefe is deploying their line. He's also not getting any time with the first PP. That's not necessarily his own doing (though some like to claim it is) as much as it's giving a right handed shot who excels down low in Noesen the spot.

I'm personally glad Keefe mentioned it's his job as well to get the top guys going, because it is. And he hasn't had to budge with the lineup much, but he might be forced to do so next game. I'm curious to see what he might do.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Timo hasn't scored but he's playing really well. He's making 8.8 so the goals have to come from him but it's not like he's also struggling with his play. Far from it. Knowing how hockey works, once his play dips he'll randomly still score. Fickle sport lol

 

[forceten]

I keep forgetting about losing McLeod. That was a huge loss, and McLeod made Boqvist expendable which vanished when McLeod did.

 

[Better Call Sal]

People will chalk it up to coach speak, but it’s the reality. If you really believe this group is not going to be able to score more than a goal a game for the remainder of the season, then by all means remain pessimistic.

But the goaltending and defense is there. It’s a complete 180 from what we’ve been watching the past couple of seasons. But there is talent here that can and will be more productive in this incoming stretch.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I keep forgetting about losing McLeod. That was a huge loss, and McLeod made Boqvist expendable which vanished when McLeod did.

I said in the GDT just now but that still wouldn't make sense why they did that. The Team Canada thing wouldn't have a made a difference if they didn't know about what was going on because they still didn't pay McLeod a hefty salary, he had some big goals in that year's playoffs but his line was getting caved big time 5v5. So they probably want to give something to McLeod that was short term to see if could replicate his playoff production while getting better 5v5. I don't fault them for prioritizing McLeod over Boqvist but you still need to replace the latter way way better than they did.

People will chalk it up to coach speak, but it’s the reality. If you really believe this group is not going to be able to score more than a goal a game for the remainder of the season, then by all means remain pessimistic.

But the goaltending and defense is there. It’s a complete 180 from what we’ve been watching the past couple of seasons. But there is talent here that can and will be more productive in this incoming stretch.

I think some of the top guys are struggling with the idea of being defensively sound while playing their own game for a full 82. The late December stretch was everything clicking at once, it was obviously nice in the moment but it was never gonna last. There was going to be growing pains to this Keefe system and we're probably seeing it right now. Thank god for Markstrom because without him, we probably have 0 wins since Christmas. Hopefully this 2 day break gets them focused again

 

[Bleedred]

I've been going through the Maple Leafs shooting percentage the last few years, ever since Keefe got there. They always shot above league average, sometimes by quite a bit. They probably have guys that shoot a little better than some of our better shooters, but it doesn't appear to be a Sheldon Keefe thing at all.

And there are head coaches that if you go look at their teams over a 10 year stretch, you'll find nothing but below shooting teams for the most part. Claude Julien was notorious for it. Sheldon Keefe is not.

 

[devilsfan950003]

Tom McVie passed away today. Good coach, got them into the playoffs. Had some of the funniest interviews I've ever seen. Histerical. Tough coach. RIP

https://youtu.be/4QPqNdqDb-s

 

[devilsfan950003]

Kind of funny how “the algorithm” can’t figure out that I’m not interested in Devils stuff after a loss. No YouTube, I don’t want to watch the Devils Rangers highlights from last night. No Twitter, I don’t want to see the tweets from the game last night.

I do the same. Same with post game after they lose. Why go through the pain again.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

Tom McVie, who coached the Winnipeg Jets to the 1979 World Hockey Association championship over Wayne Gretzky's Edmonton Oilers in the final year before the franchises were absorbed into the NHL, has died. He was 89.

McVie was also the Jets' first coach in the NHL and the New Jersey Devils' second after they moved from Colorado in 1982. He also coached the Washington Capitals, compiling an overall NHL record of 126-263 with 73 ties in parts of eight seasons from 1975-92.


McVie, 89, former Jets, Caps, Devils coach, dies


McVie also coached in the AHL for New Jersey, working for the then-Utica Devils. They have since been renamed the Utica Comets, who honored him in a Monday social media post, calling McVie "a legend of the sport and our community," and adding that "Tom was an outstanding leader, and an incredible human being."

 

[jkrdevil]

Tom McVie was only in his mid-50’s when he coached the Devils? He looked a lot older.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Ah the drunks thread, should bring it back for old time's sake

Ah you think the Drunks Thread is your ally? You merely adopted the Drunks. I was born in it... molded by it.

 

[NjDevsRR]

In 22-23, the team had a 4–7-3 (.310 pts %) stretch and a 2-4-2 stretch (.333 pts %)

This season we had a 3-4-2 (.444 pts %) stretch and currently a 2-6-3 (.318 pts %) stretch.


It can be turned around quickly if they return to their game pace they showed in Nov and Dec. Its not like they are currently getting dominated. 7 one goal game losses in this current stretch. (When empty nets are not included)

 

[NjDevsRR]

Its kind of scary when you compile our bottom 6 forwards stats.

Bastian Lazar Haula Dowling Macdermid and Tatar have a combined 35 pts, .89 shots per game in 189 gms

Now. Glass half full approach, maybe Tatar Lazar and Bastian can cook going forward if the latter two are finally healthy. That should help.

But yeah, THAT production while the top 6 has gone completely quiet is a recipe for disaster for any team. You can’t win in today’s league if you only score 1 or 2.


Edit: Forgot Cotter. It’s still bleak when you add in that production. Ideally, you want Noesen and Palat in the bottom 6. We need some trades.

Edit 2: Also forgot Mercer. I have a headache today haha.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

They're not gonna shoot 7% but they've been god awful f***ing finishers all year. I also don't think a trade is gonna help them currently. They have to get out of this slump with what Fitz has constructed, for better or worse. It'd be catastrophic if Fitz gave up pieces and this team still can't find traction.

Its kind of scary when you compile our bottom 6 forwards stats.

Bastian Lazar Haula Dowling Macdermid and Tatar have a combined 35 pts, .89 shots per game in 189 gms

Now. Glass half full approach, maybe Tatar Lazar and Bastian can cook going forward if the latter two are finally healthy. That should help.

But yeah, THAT production while the top 6 has gone completely quiet is a recipe for disaster for any team. You can’t win in today’s league if you only score 1 or 2.


Edit: Forgot Cotter. It’s still bleak when you add in that production. Ideally, you want Noesen and Palat in the bottom 6. We need some trades.

Edit 2: Also forgot Mercer. I have a headache today haha.

Haula/Lazar probably have been hampered by some big injury, Dowling shouldn't have been pressed into this team's 3C and that's on Fitz since it was evident this team was pretty weak at C. Bastian is ok, MacDermid LOL, Tatar is cooked.

 

[NjDevsRR]

They're not gonna shoot 7% but they've been god awful f***ing finishers all year. I also don't think a trade is gonna happen them currently. They have to get out of this slump with what Fitz has constructed, for better or worse. It'd be catastrophic if Fitz gave up pieces and this team still can't find traction.



Haula/Lazar probably have been hampered by some big injury, Dowling shouldn't have been pressed into this team's 3C and that's on Fitz since it was evident this team was pretty weak at C. Bastian is ok, MacDermid LOL, Tatar is cooked.

Its frustrating that Mercer cant cement himself as a top 6 winger. We would be looking better if that happened so a Palat or Noesen can shuffle down the lineup

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

In 22-23, the team had a 4–7-3 (.310 pts %) stretch and a 2-4-2 stretch (.333 pts %)

This season we had a 3-4-2 (.444 pts %) stretch and currently a 2-6-3 (.318 pts %) stretch.


It can be turned around quickly if they return to their game pace they showed in Nov and Dec. Its not like they are currently getting dominated. 7 one goal game losses in this current stretch. (When empty nets are not included)

Memory is shotty but wasn't some of that on Vitek being terrible in that stretch?

 

[NJDevils17]

Some real complaints here vs expectations

- Mercer has stagnated his development. I remember even last season him being a hound on the puck in games. That first ~130ish game aura is gone. His tenacity has totally evaporated…bizarre but real.

- Timo isn’t scoring enough. Love the guy and think he’s doing A LOT to drive play and has been unlucky but at some point he does need to get on the scoresheet.

- Dougie is a liability. Yes he is. I think that injury really did him in. Didn’t ever come back the same and I’m pretty confident he won’t. Big, slow, not-mobile DMAN have a short shelf life.

- Bratt / Jack issues: This is where I push back. Ask more of others before you start getting on two leading point getters who are almost driving play. Do they have to be the best? Yes. Are they paid like it in the high cap era, no. Both are discounted which means you need contributions from the rest of the roster when they’re not going. Both top 15 in scoring too, I’m not trying to dig either bc they’ve done more than anyone.