Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Lou Bloom]

"How would it make the bottom 6 worse to upgrade your top 6, move Palat or Noesen down to the 3rd line and add a promising young NHL ready center in Kulich to play a bottom 6 role, while also holding onto all your draft picks which would allow you to add another bottom 6 piece if needed?"

It is quite simple. Adding tuch does not meaningfully improve the top 6. Again, it is diminishing returns when you try and overload a line, and can often be counterproductive. the Jack-Bratt lines and Nico-Meier lines already dominate. They aren't going to improve by much, if at all, as we have seen previously when we tried Toffoli with them, and Meier with them.

Meanwhile Palat. A complimentary piece in the top 6 who supports 2 stars. But he cannot drive a 3rd line. Going from mercer to him is a downgrade there, and outweighs the benefit you get from the small, if any gains tuch provides in the top 6.

Palat-Kulich-Haula is not going to be a good 3rd line.


Oh great we held onto our picks. We lost Simon Nemec and Dawson Mercer but oh well at least we kept a late 1st #WIN

If I included Mercer and Nemec in the RoR trade NJD would be GETTING multiple 1sts.

It would be more like RoR+1st+1st+1st for Mercer+Nemec

RoR is getting utterly absymal shooting luck this year to hide his great play

It's only diminishing returns if all the players constantly need the puck on their stick to produce. Tuch is extremely valuable because he's an elite two way player that doesn't need PP1 time or the puck constantly on his stick to produce elite results. The Avalanche had 4 high level wingers with Landeskog Rantanen, Nichushkin and Lehkonen.

You also get one of the best two way wingers in the NHL for a year and half at a great rate and a young center prospect (same draft as Nemec btw) who has put up elite AHL numbers and projects as versatile player that can play center or wing up and down a lineup.

You don't understand value if you think RoR at 50% retention for two and a half seasons + 3 first = Nemec + Mercer.

 

[dgibb10]

Overloading your lines is only diminishing if your solely adding playmakers and not thinking about line synergy. It's also rarely done because it's hard to acquire 6 legit top players and keep them under the cap long term.

Look at some of the past Stanley cup winners they all had loaded top 6.

Florida with Barkov, Tkachuk, Bennett, Verhaeghe, Reinhart and the only "weak" link in Rodrigues.
Vegas with Eichel, Marchessault, Stephenson, Stone, Barbashev, Smith.
Colorado with MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Lehkonen and Nuchishkin.
Tampa with Point, Kucherov, Cirelli, Palat, Killorn and Johnson (with Coleman, Gourde and Goodrow on the 3rd line.)
Blues had Schenn, Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Schwartz and Perron all in their top 6.
Capitals had Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsnov, Wilson and Oshie.

Tuch doesn't need the puck constantly on his stick to provide a ton of value, He's a great finisher, plays great defense, doesn't need PP1 time to produce, Plays a ton on the PK, he's the exact type of player the Devils should be looking to add, someone that doesn't need to constantly have the puck on their stick to produce.

Why are we pretending a bunch of role players (eg your palat/mercer/noesens) on these teams were stars?

It's only diminishing returns if all the players constantly need the puck on their stick to produce. Tuch is extremely valuable because he's an elite two way player that doesn't need PP1 time or the puck constantly on his stick to produce elite results. The Avalanche had 4 high level wingers with Landeskog Rantanen, Nichushkin and Lehkonen.

You also get one of the best two way wingers in the NHL for a year and half at a great rate and a young center prospect (same draft as Nemec btw) who has put up elite AHL numbers and projects as versatile player that can play center or wing up and down a lineup.

You don't understand value if you think RoR at 50% retention for two and a half seasons + 3 first = Nemec + Mercer.

Shipping out mercer means you don't need retention. Of course, you're shipping out 18 minutes a night and taking away from your team a guy for both now and the future, but hey.

Calling tuch one of the best two way wingers is laughable (note, his 5v5 xGoals share this year is about 5.5% worse than RoRs).

Tuch gets 17% of his shifts starting in the ozone. For context, Jack Hughes gets about 16%. RoR gets about 11%

 

[Lou Bloom]

Why are we pretending a bunch of role players (eg your palat/mercer/noesens) on these teams were stars?


Shipping out mercer means you don't need retention. Of course, you're shipping out 18 minutes a night and taking away from your team a guy for both now and the future, but hey.

Calling tuch one of the best two way wingers is laughable

Where did I imply stars? Those players were legit top 6 forwards at the time, nobody is saying the Devils need to go out and add a star winger, they're saying to go out if possible and improve on two players in Palat and Noesen who are not top 6 caliber.

The Same Mercer who put up 33 points last season and is currently on pace for under 40 points this season despite getting opportunity after opportunity to stick in the top 6 and is constantly being given an ton of ice time to mediocre results.

"Calling tuch one of the best two way wingers is laughable"

Very laughable take.

 

[dgibb10]

Where did I imply stars? Those players were legit top 6 forwards at the time, nobody is saying the Devils need to go out and add a star winger, they're saying to go out if possible and improve on two players in Palat and Noesen who are not top 6 caliber.

The Same Mercer who put up 33 points last season and is currently on pace for under 40 points this season despite getting opportunity after opportunity to stick in the top 6 and is constantly being given an ton of ice time to mediocre results.

"Calling tuch one of the best two way wingers is laughable"

View attachment 960066

Very laughable take.

Unfortunately we aren't in 22-23 anymore and his defensive results have absolutely f***ing nosedived (I can only imagine what you'd say if I pulled out RoRs 22-23 chart)

Also, let's go back to ozone starts. Here is a complete list of every forward in the NHL to get a higher % of ozone starts than tuch at 17.89% over the last 3 years (min 1000 minutes)

Ovi
Rantanen
Mack
Connor
Pasta
Laine
Schief
McDavid
Drai
Zucc
Hyman.

That's the entire list. It's 11 guys long. And you're out here pretending like he's not getting favourable deployment lmao.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Unfortunately we aren't in 22-23 anymore and his defensive results have absolutely f***ing nosedived (I can only imagine what you'd say if I pulled out RoRs 22-23 chart)

Also, let's go back to ozone starts. Here is a complete list of every forward in the NHL to get a higher % of ozone starts than tuch at 17.89% over the last 3 years (min 1000 minutes)

Ovi
Rantanen
Mack
Connor
Pasta
Laine
Schief
McDavid
Drai
Zucc
Hyman.

That's the entire list. It's 11 guys long. And you're out here pretending like he's not getting favourable deployment lmao.

In all situations he has a near 16% DZ start percentage compared to 11% from O'Reilly. They both have similar number of percentages in all situations as far as OZ and NZ start percentages. The reason his OZ% start percentage is so high 5v5 is because he's constantly paired up with Tage Thompson who's by far the best offensive threat that Buffalo has in their forward group. They're not going to deploy their 1st line with their best offensive threat as a shutdown line.

Tuch is putting up high end point totals without PP1 time. the One year they gave him PP1 time he was put up 79 points in 74 games while playing all situations. If you don't think Tuch would have a massive positive impact on the Devils then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Triumph]

Palat is the perfect winger for Hughes and Bratt. The only way you can upgrade is getting a guy who plays like Palat but is better, and there are extremely few of those guys, and probably none of them are available. You need someone who can play without the puck and get to the scoring areas.

Also I find a lot of the ideas here involve moving Bratt to LW, where he hasn't played all that much and I suspect he will lose some of his best moves. He's so good on his off-wing at knowing how to attack defenders.

 

[dgibb10]

Where did I imply stars? Those players were legit top 6 forwards at the time, nobody is saying the Devils need to go out and add a star winger, they're saying to go out if possible and improve on two players in Palat and Noesen who are not top 6 caliber.

The Same Mercer who put up 33 points last season and is currently on pace for under 40 points this season despite getting opportunity after opportunity to stick in the top 6 and is constantly being given an ton of ice time to mediocre results.

"Calling tuch one of the best two way wingers is laughable"

View attachment 960066

Very laughable take.

If you retroactively call players on cup teams top 6 players than sure they had all these top 6 players.

If we acquired or had the equivalent of a Wilson (career highs of 7 goals and 19 points heading into that year, with 18 points on January 12th of that year in 41 games), Lehkonen (career high of 31 points), Barbashev (1 singular year above 0.5 PPG when he shot 24%), Stephenson (career high of 35 points),

Evidence: the way you talk about Mercer.

 

[My3Sons]

In all situations he has a near 16% DZ start percentage compared to 11% from O'Reilly. They both have similar number of percentages in all situations as far as OZ and NZ start percentages. The reason his OZ% start percentage is so high 5v5 is because he's constantly paired up with Tage Thompson who's by far the best offensive threat that Buffalo has in their forward group. They're not going to deploy their 1st line with their best offensive threat as a shutdown line.

Tuch is putting up high end point totals without PP1 time. the One year they gave him PP1 time he was put up 79 points in 74 games while playing all situations. If you don't think Tuch would have a massive positive impact on the Devils then I don't know what to tell you.

I would love to have Tuch on the team but he’s from Buffalo and wants to play there apparently. Hard to see them letting him go.

 

[Lou Bloom]

If you retroactively call players on cup teams top 6 players than sure they had all these top 6 players.

If we acquired or had the equivalent of a Wilson (career highs of 7 goals and 19 points heading into that year, with 18 points on January 12th of that year in 41 games), Lehkonen (career high of 31 points), Barbashev (1 singular year above 0.5 PPG when he shot 24%), Stephenson (career high of 35 points),

Evidence: the way you talk about Mercer.

Wilson: who was 22 at the time and averaged less than 11 minutes 5v5 time and 0 PP time.
Lehkonen: who produced all his points at even strength with no power play opportunity. who was producing .5 PPG in under 12 minutes of 5v5 time and barely any PP time, while providing great defense and PK ability.
Barbashev who was in a bottom 6 role prior to 2021-2022 and went on to produce 60 points with only 9 of them coming off the power play.
Stephenson 35 points in 51 games, 64 points in 2021-2022 and then 65 points in their cup winning season.

Mercer has been given ample opportunity to secure a top 6 role and has played himself out of it. All of those other players were performing elite in bottom 6 roles and once given a top 6 opportunity ran with it. If the Devils had a high end young bottom 6 player then I'd be all for promoting them to a top 6 role but they don't.

I would love to have Tuch on the team but he’s from Buffalo and wants to play there apparently. Hard to see them letting him go.

I don't disagree, I just said I'd give them a call and make them a big offer. It's much more realistic that the Devils go after smaller additions at the deadline then make a big splash.

 

[dgibb10]

Wilson: who was 22 at the time and averaged less than 11 minutes 5v5 time and 0 PP time.
Lehkonen: who produced all his points at even strength with no power play opportunity. who was producing .5 PPG in under 12 minutes of 5v5 time and barely any PP time, while providing great defense and PK ability.
Barbashev who was in a bottom 6 role prior to 2021-2022 and went on to produce 60 points with only 9 of them coming off the power play.
Stephenson 35 points in 51 games, 64 points in 2021-2022 and then 65 points in their cup winning season.

Mercer has been given ample opportunity to secure a top 6 role and has played himself out of it. All of those other players were performing elite in bottom 6 roles and once given a top 6 opportunity ran with it. If the Devils had a high end young bottom 6 player then I'd be all for promoting them to a top 6 role but they don't.

"Wilson: who was 22 at the time and averaged less than 11 minutes 5v5 time and 0 PP time."

He was 7 months older than Dawson Mercer is now at this day in 2018.

Meanwhile you are going to pretend Mercer hasn't also been in the bottom 6 without PP1 time, and that he isn't a quality PK guy.


Mercer scored 27 goals in a season already, at age 21.

Lehkonen career high is still 21. Barbashev is still at 26. Wilson's is still at 24. Stephenson is still at 21. Even tuch has only cracked that number once. Palat in tampa never got there.

 

[dgibb10]

Wilson: who was 22 at the time and averaged less than 11 minutes 5v5 time and 0 PP time.
Lehkonen: who produced all his points at even strength with no power play opportunity. who was producing .5 PPG in under 12 minutes of 5v5 time and barely any PP time, while providing great defense and PK ability.
Barbashev who was in a bottom 6 role prior to 2021-2022 and went on to produce 60 points with only 9 of them coming off the power play.
Stephenson 35 points in 51 games, 64 points in 2021-2022 and then 65 points in their cup winning season.

Mercer has been given ample opportunity to secure a top 6 role and has played himself out of it. All of those other players were performing elite in bottom 6 roles and once given a top 6 opportunity ran with it. If the Devils had a high end young bottom 6 player then I'd be all for promoting them to a top 6 role but they don't.


I don't disagree, I just said I'd give them a call and make them a big offer. It's much more realistic that the Devils go after smaller additions at the deadline then make a big splash.

And Noesen's half ppg in 11 minutes a night in Carolina is also not meaningful into giving him "top 6 upside" I assume?

 

[Lou Bloom]

"Wilson: who was 22 at the time and averaged less than 11 minutes 5v5 time and 0 PP time."

He was 7 months older than Dawson Mercer is now at this day in 2018.

Meanwhile you are going to pretend Mercer hasn't also been in the bottom 6 without PP1 time, and that he isn't a quality PK guy.

Mercer has been given opportunity after opportunity to cement a top 6 role and has played himself out of the opportunity. Tom Wilson early in his career was in a bottom 6 role on a loaded Washington team that was a consistent contender, Once he was given an opportunity in the top 6 he was an impactful player.

I also don't think he's that good on the PK, They play him a bunch on the PK but I rarely see him make any impactful plays on it.

 

[dgibb10]

Mercer has been given opportunity after opportunity to cement a top 6 role and has played himself out of the opportunity. Tom Wilson early in his career was in a bottom 6 role on a loaded Washington team that was a consistent contender, Once he was given an opportunity in the top 6 he was an impactful player.

I also don't think he's that good on the PK, They play him a bunch on the PK but I rarely see him make any impactful plays on it.

Tuch helping to lead a consistently bad PK: WOW THIS IS GREAT
Mercer helping to lead a consistently good PK: WOW THIS IS SO LAME

 

[dgibb10]

Mercer has been given opportunity after opportunity to cement a top 6 role and has played himself out of the opportunity. Tom Wilson early in his career was in a bottom 6 role on a loaded Washington team that was a consistent contender, Once he was given an opportunity in the top 6 he was an impactful player.

I also don't think he's that good on the PK, They play him a bunch on the PK but I rarely see him make any impactful plays on it.

If you want your PK to be making exciting plays you're asking the wrong things from your PK.

Guys who get a few shorthanded chances get so f***ing overrated as PKers it's insane

 

[Lou Bloom]

And Noesen's half ppg in 11 minutes a night in Carolina is also not meaningful into giving him "top 6 upside" I assume?

All those players you named had an all around impact apart from just points. The only reason I brought up point totals is because you used they're point totals in bottom 6 roles as a disqualifier to them becoming legit top 6 talents. If Noesen brought more than just solid finishing ability then he'd be a top 6 player.

If you want your PK to be making exciting plays you're asking the wrong things from your PK.

Guys who get a few shorthanded chances get so f***ing overrated as PKers it's insane

Massive strawman. I never said Short handed opportunities equate to good PK ability. The problem with Mercer is I rarely see him make good defensive plays, he doesn't cover much range defensively, he's not physical or capable of winning battles along the boards.

Tuch helping to lead a consistently bad PK: WOW THIS IS GREAT
Mercer helping to lead a consistently good PK: WOW THIS IS SO LAME

Because one player clearly makes the difference between a great PK and a bad PK.

 

[dgibb10]

All those players you named had an all around impact apart from just points. The only reason I brought up point totals is because you used they're point totals in bottom 6 roles as a disqualifier to them becoming legit top 6 talents. If Noesen brought more than just solid finishing ability then he'd be a top 6 player.

Massive strawman. I never said Short handed opportunities equate to good PK ability. The problem with Mercer is I rarely see him make good defensive plays, he doesn't cover much range defensively, he's not physical or capable of winning battles along the boards.

Because one player clearly makes the difference between a great PK and a bad PK.

List of forwards (min 1000 minutes) with a higher expected goals share than Noesen 5v5 (60.93%) over the last 3 years:






That's the list.

If you want to go to actual goals he's 3rd at 63% behind Perfetti and Barkov

Noesen/Mercer/Palat fit right into the tier of the 5th-7th forwards that championship teams tend to have. The avs were the exception, not the rule.

We need another guy in that tier. Not a tier above, and it just so happens our hole is at 3C, where that guy should slot.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[Lou Bloom]

Mercer scored 27 goals in a season already, at age 21.

Lehkonen career high is still 21. Barbashev is still at 26. Wilson's is still at 24. Stephenson is still at 21. Even tuch has only cracked that number once. Palat in tampa never got there.

Since when did how many goals you scored in a single season determine how good of a player you are? Are you really going to make the argument that Mercer is as impactful a player as any of those names when they were on Stanley Cup winners?

List of forwards (min 1000 minutes) with a higher expected goals share than Noesen 5v5 (60.93%) over the last 3 years:






That's the list.

He's great in a limited role, unless you want to make an argument that Carolina, the best run organization in the NHL was misusing him and let a legit top 6 player leave in FA for under $3M.

 

[Bleedred]

Even with the nasty skid on that roadtrip we're 12-3-2 in games he's played since Allen's last win on November 23rd.

Hoping to see him in both games this week before the back to back on the weekend.

 

[HoliksGhost]

 

[dgibb10]

Since when did how many goals you scored in a single season determine how good of a player you are? Are you really going to make the argument that Mercer is as impactful a player as any of those names when they were on Stanley Cup winners?

He's great in a limited role, unless you want to make an argument that Carolina, the best run organization in the NHL was misusing him and let a legit top 6 player leave in FA for under $3M.

Appeal to authority lmao.

NHL teams aren't infallible.

Just want to clarify.

When NJD acquires a guy who is doing very well in a smaller role elsewhere and promotes him to a role in the top 6 where he continues to do well, it's "he's still not a top 6 guy why would they let a top 6 guy go"?

But when a different team takes a guy who was doing very well in a smaller role elsewhere and promotes him to a role in the top 6 where he continues to do well, that guy then actually was a hidden top 6 guy the whole time?

 

[NJDevs26]

NHL teams aren’t infallible but some clearly deserve a lot more benefit of the doubt than others.

 

[dgibb10]

Since when did how many goals you scored in a single season determine how good of a player you are? Are you really going to make the argument that Mercer is as impactful a player as any of those names when they were on Stanley Cup winners?

He's great in a limited role, unless you want to make an argument that Carolina, the best run organization in the NHL was misusing him and let a legit top 6 player leave in FA for under $3M.

Lmao again. So we're retroactively saying those players were better BECAUSE they won the cup.

Yes, if you automatically view every single player to be in the top 6 of a cup winning team as a "legit top 6 guy" BECAUSE they won the cup, then every team to win the cup will have exclusively "legit top 6 guys".

 

[My3Sons]

Appeal to authority lmao.

NHL teams aren't infallible.

Just want to clarify.

When NJD acquires a guy who is doing very well in a smaller role elsewhere and promotes him to a role in the top 6 where he continues to do well, it's "he's still not a top 6 guy why would they let a top 6 guy go"?

But when a different team takes a guy who was doing very well in a smaller role elsewhere and promotes him to a role in the top 6 where he continues to do well, that guy then actually was a hidden top 6 guy the whole time?

You are very strident in your opinions which is fine but the lmao and AINEC type of language doesn’t prove you are right and it turns off whoever you are having a discussion with. You will make better points just explaining why you think what you do and leave room for people to have a good point even if it doesn’t predominate for you in forming your opinion.

 

[devilsblood]

I'm not saying now. The move can come at the deadline. He made it seems like "oh yeah we're good with Haula, we don't need anyone else" and I totally disagree with that.

its time to start going for it. "Build the organizational depth" was the past 6-8 years. We're past that. The East is wide open this year. We should go for it.

What are you talking about? I said "If Haula can come back and be effective" and then you yourself said "I have no interest in waiting".

But sure, what you really meant was "not now".