Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[dgibb10]

Unless Kovacevic signs a Sigenthaler type contract, I think the team is content to let him walk knowing they have Nemec ready to step in immediately next season.

I also think Huala probably gets traded in the off-season, with Fitzgerald looking to get a 3C upgrade as early as this season at trade deadline.

I don’t think the team entertains trying to move Hamilton unless he has a horrible 2nd half season and playoffs. And there isn’t an immediate urgency because I do think Seamus Casey is a good like for like replacement and he could use another season in AHL.

Palat probably stays another season then with one season left on his contract, that’s when you entertain moving him.

Regarding re-signing Luke. It will happen and I think he would be open to a 2 year bridge contract knowing that the team is in cup contention. I also think there is more opportunity for Luke to make more money and a sign a long term deal in 2 years than it is right now. If Luke wants to sign long term now (this off-season), I don’t think he gets more than $8m per season, knowing that Fitz has to fill out the rest of the roster given the current cap constraints. Whereby if he waits 2 years and he continues to develop into a bonfide two way stud (the defense has been excellent this season but the offense from Luke is not there yet), then he could easily command much more, especially if the cap continues to rise. Dillon would be off-contract by then (replaced by hopefully Silayev) so Luke could take that money on top of his bridge contract (Predicting a bridge worth $6m per season).

There is 0 need or reason to bridge Luke Hughes.

 

[RSeen]

That would be my ideal target and I agree.

RoR (50%) retained+Nyquist for a sizable package.

Make the roster look like this
View attachment 960040

Nyquist is really someone I'm that high on given the year he is having and his age, so I'd probably look at ROR and another target from elsewhere.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I'm not interested in O'Reilly. About to turn 34, has produced 16 5v5 points despite the 2nd most 5v5 forward minutes on Nashville only behind Forbserg. He's not even being used in a shutdown role this season, down to under 1 minute of PK time per game and has a 60% OZ start percentage.

No reason to give a bunch of assets for an aging player, save those for when a player in their prime becomes available that's actually worth investing assets into. This core is still young, no reason to throw a bunch of assets away for mid 30s talent.

 

[RSeen]

Brandon Tanev is a player of interest to me. I feel like he would slot in well either in Palat’s spot or on the third line.

He is absolutely not a fit on the top line.

 

[NJDevs26]

it was worse. last week they had a list of selke candidates with mercer on the list and no nico

That screams good old Canadian boy bias

 

[dgibb10]

I'm not interested in O'Reilly. About to turn 34, has produced 16 5v5 points despite the 2nd most 5v5 forward minutes on Nashville only behind Forbserg. He's not even being used in a shutdown role this season, down to under 1 minute of PK time per game and has a 60% OZ start percentage.

No reason to give a bunch of assets for an aging player, save those for when a player in their prime becomes available that's actually worth investing assets into. This core is still young, no reason to throw a bunch of assets away for mid 30s talent.

You're going to be left very disappointed trying to find a prime aged C better than RoR at the 2.25 mill we're suggesting acquiring him at that on the market.

The closest thing to a trade like that was Ryan Mcleod, and I expect him to be getting a sizable pay raise this offseaon

 

[Lou Bloom]

You're going to be left very disappointed trying to find a prime aged C better than RoR at the 2.25 mill we're suggesting acquiring him at that on the market.

The closest thing to a trade like that was Ryan Mcleod, and I expect him to be getting a sizable pay raise this offseaon

When did I imply the Devils could acquire a prime aged center this trade deadline? Asking Nashville to retain half of his contract for the next 3 seasons would acquire a haul of assets, which should not be used to acquire a declining 34 year old center.

The best TDL acquisitions of the past 5 years was players like Blake Coleman, Arturi Lehkonen and Ivan Barbashev. Players that were entering their prime, not paying a haul for a 34 year old starting to decline.

 

[dgibb10]

When did I imply the Devils could acquire a prime aged center this trade deadline? Asking Nashville to retain half of his contract for the next 3 seasons would acquire a haul of assets, which should not be used to acquire a declining 34 year old center.

The best TDL acquisitions of the past 5 years was players like Blake Coleman, Arturi Lehkonen and Ivan Barbashev. Players that were entering their prime, not paying a haul for a 34 year old starting to decline.

Winger, Winger, Winger.

Your MO of inflating the cost of any move you don't like is tired and old.

What do you think this "haul" for a retained RoR looks like beyond the standard costs of around a 1st in value that Lehkonen, Barbashev and Coleman cost?

Also ignoring the cost of cap space in that it cost around an extra 3 mill in next years money to retain Barbashev and Lehkonen.

But go ahead. Lay it out. The target, the acquisition cost, and then the cost to keep or resign this player.

Compared to an actual amount you think we'd have to pay for a retained RoR. (keep in mind history says the cost of 6 mill in cap savings is around a 1st)

 

[Lou Bloom]

Winger, Winger, Winger.

Your MO of inflating the cost of any move you don't like is tired and old.

What do you think this "haul" for a retained RoR looks like beyond the standard costs of around a 1st in value that Lehkonen, Barbashev and Coleman cost?

Do you think a good winger would not help this team? Do you also not see the point that all three of those players were hitting their primes, while O'Reilly will be 34 in two weeks and has a contract that will run until he hits 36.

My MO is pointing out that a team retaining for 2.5 seasons is going to cost a lot by itself, not even including the cost of O'Reilly at a lower cap rate. Thinking it'd only cost a 1st round pick is generous and even then I'd rather save a 1st round pick or equivalent prospect for a player that is actually in their prime.

It'd be more than all of them except possibly Coleman who went for 1st round pick and recently drafted 1st round prospect in Foote. And even if it's a similar cost I'd much rather have a player like Coleman signed below $2M AAV for a year and half in his prime or Lehkonen at $2.3M at age 26 with an RFA year after then a 34 year old O'Reilly.

 

[dgibb10]

Do you think a good winger would not help this team? Do you also not see the point that all three of those players were hitting their primes, while O'Reilly will be 34 in two weeks and has a contract that will run until he hits 36.

My MO is pointing out that a team retaining for 2.5 seasons is going to cost a lot by itself, not even including the cost of O'Reilly at a lower cap rate. Thinking it'd only cost a 1st round pick is generous and even then I'd rather save a 1st round pick or equivalent prospect for a player that is actually in their prime.

It'd be more than all of them except possibly Coleman who went for 1st round pick and recently drafted 1st round prospect in Foote. And even if it's a similar cost I'd much rather have a player like Coleman signed below $2M AAV for a year and half in his prime or Lehkonen at $2.3M at age 26 with an RFA year after then a 34 year old O'Reilly.

Yes, coleman cost a 1st+recently drafted first prospect because he had 1.5 years of cheap term.

I am suggesting a similar price for 2.5 years of cheap term on RoR.

You're welcome to throw out an actual target.

I'll even throw out some names for you:

Ross Colton
Frederic
Geekie (boston)
Evans
McLeod
Krebs
Glass
Frost
Cates
Poehling
Rossi
Velano

 

[Billdo]

Let's get Pav back. 3C, can PK, and forces Haula down to 4C if he comes back and Dowling out of the lineup. Oh, and it reunites the three best friends that anyone could have, and their pregame cheers tradition.

Meier-Hischier-Mercer
Bratt-Hughes-Noesen
Palat-Zacha-Tatar
Lazar-Haula-Bastian

 

[dgibb10]

Do you think a good winger would not help this team? Do you also not see the point that all three of those players were hitting their primes, while O'Reilly will be 34 in two weeks and has a contract that will run until he hits 36.

My MO is pointing out that a team retaining for 2.5 seasons is going to cost a lot by itself, not even including the cost of O'Reilly at a lower cap rate. Thinking it'd only cost a 1st round pick is generous and even then I'd rather save a 1st round pick or equivalent prospect for a player that is actually in their prime.

It'd be more than all of them except possibly Coleman who went for 1st round pick and recently drafted 1st round prospect in Foote. And even if it's a similar cost I'd much rather have a player like Coleman signed below $2M AAV for a year and half in his prime or Lehkonen at $2.3M at age 26 with an RFA year after then a 34 year old O'Reilly.

I have seen wingers come and go into the top 6 of all kinds of talent levels and roles. None have made meaningful changes to the results of Jack Bratt or Nico.

And a center is much more important in driving play for the bottom 6.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Let's get Pav back. 3C, can PK, and forces Haula down to 4C if he comes back and Dowling out of the lineup. Oh, and it reunites the three best friends that anyone could have, and their pregame cheers tradition.

Meier-Hischier-Mercer
Bratt-Hughes-Noesen
Palat-Zacha-Tatar
Lazar-Haula-Bastian

I wouldn't take Zacha back for free

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I also don't really get the "we absolutely 100% need a top 6 winger!" over a center mindset.

Nico is being asked to shoulder a HEAVY defensive load because we do not have a real 3C right now which almost renders that line useless. That obviously affects he and his line on the offensive end as well. I think acquiring a legitimate 3C and allowing Nico's line to be a bit more offensive minded will go a LONG way.

We don't need to replace Palat at the moment. He has 11 pts in the last 15 games. That is way more than adequate.

 

[dgibb10]

I also don't really get the "we absolutely 100% need a top 6 winger!" over a center mindset.

Nico is being asked to shoulder a HEAVY defensive load because we do not have a real 3C right now which almost renders that line useless. That obviously affects he and his line on the offensive end as well. I think acquiring a legitimate 3C and allowing Nico's line to be a bit more offensive minded will go a LONG way.

We don't need to replace Palat at the moment. He has 11 pts in the last 15 games. That is way more than adequate.

Also, we've thrown about 80 different wingers alongside Nico, and Jack-Bratt. The results have basically been the same whether that's Timo or Tatar, Toffoli or Haula, Mercer or Noesen, Palat or Yegor.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Yes, coleman cost a 1st+recently drafted first prospect because he had 1.5 years of cheap term.

I am suggesting a similar price for 2.5 years of cheap term on RoR.

You're welcome to throw out an actual target.

RoR who's 34 and declining vs a 28 year old Blake Coleman hitting his prime.

Depends on who's available for an actual target. I've said before I'd pay a ton for Alex Tuch if Buffalo decided to sell him with a year and a half left on his contract. Not sure he'll be made available though with his ties to Buffalo but if he were I'd do something around Mercer + Nemec for Tuch + Kulich.

I'd call Ottawa about a Mercer for Pinto swap but think Ottawa would ultimately decline that deal.

Outside of that I'd probably just look at cheaper buy low options this deadline (Drew O'Connor, Brandon Tanev, Trent Frederic is Boston decides to sell) not a lot of good options this TDL, which is why outside of an unsuspected player becoming available I'd prefer to go cheap and save assets for this offseason or next TDL.

 

[dgibb10]

RoR who's 34 and declining vs a 28 year old Blake Coleman hitting his prime.

Depends on who's available for an actual target. I've said before I'd pay a ton for Alex Tuch if Buffalo decided to sell him with a year and a half left on his contract. Not sure he'll be made available though with his ties to Buffalo but if he were I'd do something around Mercer + Nemec for Tuch + Kulich.

I'd call Ottawa about a Mercer for Pinto swap but think Ottawa would ultimately decline that deal.

Outside of that I'd probably just look at cheaper buy low options this deadline (Drew O'Connor, Brandon Tanev, Trent Frederic is Boston decides to sell) not a lot of good options this TDL, which is why outside of an unsuspected player becoming available I'd prefer to go cheap and save assets for this offseason or next TDL.

Lmao talking about not getting older and thinking long term while shipping out mercer+nemec for a 2 year winger.

I promise THIS winger will FINALLY be the one to meaningfully change Jack Bratt and Nicos results guys I PROMISE this one will do it. I know we tried it with Palat, and then with Timo, and then with Toffoli, but I PROMISE this winger will FINALLY be the one to make them WAY better.

Truly innovative solution to fix our bottom 6 by, checks notes, making our bottom 6 worse so we can add a big name.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I have seen wingers come and go into the top 6 of all kinds of talent levels and roles. None have made meaningful changes to the results of Jack Bratt or Nico.

And a center is much more important in driving play for the bottom 6.

That's a silly argument. Do you really think if you Put Jack next to Bastian and Nolan Foote that'd he be as successful than playing next to Bratt and Palat? Of course a good winger would make an impact, good players will driver better results and either drive more scoring chances or finish on more opportunities.

Playmakers are more important for driving play in the bottom 6, no matter the position.

 

[dgibb10]

That's a silly argument. Do you really think if you Put Jack next to Bastian and Nolan Foote that'd he be as successful than playing next to Bratt and Palat? Of course a good winger would make an impact, good players will driver better results and either drive more scoring chances or finish on more opportunities.

Playmakers are more important for driving play in the bottom 6, no matter the position.

Good thing we already have Bratt.

There's a reason teams very rarely overload with 3 stars on 1 line. It's overkill and becomes diminishing returns very fast. Too many mouths to feed, one puck.

We have the pairs already.

Jack-Bratt
Nico-Meier

chasing that tiny bit of increased production from those duos by trying to add a 3rd star is a doomed effort that will always leave you wanting more.

We've tried it with a number of different guys. It hasn't made a meaningful impact. The 3rd winger on Jack and Bratts line means so little. And since our PP1 is full, a bunch of value that a star adds in that regard will be wasted (but we'll still have to pay for it in trade and cap space).

You're paying star prices for a guy to fill a complimentary role (which will provide complimentary value). You don't want to be taking the puck off Jack and Bratts stick to try and let Tuch cook, because he's WORSE than them. You don't want the puck taken off of Nico and Timo's sticks.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Lmao talking about not getting older and thinking long term while shipping out mercer+nemec for a winger.

I promise THIS winger will FINALLY be the one to meaningfully change Jack Bratt and Nicos results guys I PROMISE this one will do it. I know we tried it with Palat, and then with Timo, and then with Toffoli, but I PROMISE this winger will FINALLY be the one to make them WAY better.

Truly innovative solution to fix our bottom 6 by, checks notes, making our bottom 6 worse so we can add a big name.

Tuch is 28 and only signed until the season after. If you can't see the difference in trading for a player's pre 30 seasons vs trading for a mid 30s, declining player then I don't know what to tell you.

Do you really think playing with better talent wouldn't make your stars better?

How would it make the bottom 6 worse to upgrade your top 6, move Palat or Noesen down to the 3rd line and add a promising young NHL ready center in Kulich to play a bottom 6 role, while also holding onto all your draft picks which would allow you to add another bottom 6 piece if needed?

And how is Tuch just a "big name", he has 27 points between 5v5 and PK, with less OZ start percentage than O'Reilly, plays over two minutes of PK time per game and is extremely productive without PP1 time. If anything you're the one trading for name power by going for the 34 year old O'Reilly that's clearly not the same player he once was.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Lawson Crouse? Signed for 2 more years at 4.3. Having a crap year but was a pretty consistent 20+ goal guy. With retention I would pay a pretty high price.

 

[dgibb10]

Tuch is 28 and only signed until the season after. If you can't see the difference in trading for a player's pre 30 seasons vs trading for a mid 30s, declining player then I don't know what to tell you.

Do you really think playing with better talent wouldn't make your stars better?

How would it make the bottom 6 worse to upgrade your top 6, move Palat or Noesen down to the 3rd line and add a promising young NHL ready center in Kulich to play a bottom 6 role, while also holding onto all your draft picks which would allow you to add another bottom 6 piece if needed?

And how is Tuch just a "big name", he has 27 points between 5v5 and PK, with less OZ start percentage than O'Reilly, plays over two minutes of PK time per game and is extremely productive without PP1 time. If anything you're the one trading for name power by going for the 34 year old O'Reilly that's clearly not the same player he once was.

"How would it make the bottom 6 worse to upgrade your top 6, move Palat or Noesen down to the 3rd line and add a promising young NHL ready center in Kulich to play a bottom 6 role, while also holding onto all your draft picks which would allow you to add another bottom 6 piece if needed?"

It is quite simple. Adding tuch does not meaningfully improve the top 6. Again, it is diminishing returns when you try and overload a line, and can often be counterproductive. the Jack-Bratt lines and Nico-Meier lines already dominate. They aren't going to improve by much, if at all, as we have seen previously when we tried Toffoli with them, and Meier with them.

Meanwhile Palat. A complimentary piece in the top 6 who supports 2 stars. But he cannot drive a 3rd line. Going from mercer to him is a downgrade there, and outweighs the benefit you get from the small, if any gains tuch provides in the top 6.

Palat-Kulich-Haula is not going to be a good 3rd line.


Oh great we held onto our picks. We lost Simon Nemec and Dawson Mercer but oh well at least we kept a late 1st #WIN

If I included Mercer and Nemec in the RoR trade NJD would be GETTING multiple 1sts.

It would be more like RoR+1st+1st+1st for Mercer+Nemec

RoR is getting utterly absymal shooting luck this year to hide his great play

 

[Lou Bloom]

Good thing we already have Bratt.

There's a reason teams very rarely overload with 3 stars on 1 line. It's overkill and becomes diminishing returns very fast. Too many mouths to feed, one puck.

We have the pairs already.

Jack-Bratt
Nico-Meier

chasing that tiny bit of increased production from those duos by trying to add a 3rd star is a doomed effort that will always leave you wanting more.

We've tried it with a number of different guys. It hasn't made a meaningful impact. The 3rd winger on Jack and Bratts line means so little. And since our PP1 is full, a bunch of value that a star adds in that regard will be wasted (but we'll still have to pay for it in trade and cap space).

You're paying star prices for a guy to fill a complimentary role (which will provide complimentary value). You don't want to be taking the puck off Jack and Bratts stick to try and let Tuch cook, because he's WORSE than them. You don't want the puck taken off of Nico and Timo's sticks.

Overloading your lines is only diminishing if your solely adding playmakers and not thinking about line synergy. It's also rarely done because it's hard to acquire 6 legit top players and keep them under the cap long term.

Look at some of the past Stanley cup winners they all had loaded top 6.

Florida with Barkov, Tkachuk, Bennett, Verhaeghe, Reinhart and the only "weak" link in Rodrigues.
Vegas with Eichel, Marchessault, Stephenson, Stone, Barbashev, Smith.
Colorado with MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Lehkonen and Nuchishkin.
Tampa with Point, Kucherov, Cirelli, Palat, Killorn and Johnson (with Coleman, Gourde and Goodrow on the 3rd line.)
Blues had Schenn, Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Schwartz and Perron all in their top 6.
Capitals had Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsnov, Wilson and Oshie.

Tuch doesn't need the puck constantly on his stick to provide a ton of value, He's a great finisher, plays great defense, doesn't need PP1 time to produce, Plays a ton on the PK, he's the exact type of player the Devils should be looking to add, someone that doesn't need to constantly have the puck on their stick to produce.

 

[dgibb10]

Tuch is 28 and only signed until the season after. If you can't see the difference in trading for a player's pre 30 seasons vs trading for a mid 30s, declining player then I don't know what to tell you.

Do you really think playing with better talent wouldn't make your stars better?

How would it make the bottom 6 worse to upgrade your top 6, move Palat or Noesen down to the 3rd line and add a promising young NHL ready center in Kulich to play a bottom 6 role, while also holding onto all your draft picks which would allow you to add another bottom 6 piece if needed?

And how is Tuch just a "big name", he has 27 points between 5v5 and PK, with less OZ start percentage than O'Reilly, plays over two minutes of PK time per game and is extremely productive without PP1 time. If anything you're the one trading for name power by going for the 34 year old O'Reilly that's clearly not the same player he once was.

Also, you are completely wrong about zone starts

 

[NjDevsRR]

5-4-1 in last 10. Stabilizing

Canes with same record in their last 10

Caps got 3 pts more than us and Canes


Try to get 2 pts against Fla and Tor and then take advantage of a lighter schedule in the last 35 gms