Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Lou Bloom]

The drop on the PK going from Kovy to Hamilton is a lot less than the drop of replacing dougie on the PP.

Nemec was very ineffective on the PP last year.

You can also keep Kovy and Hamilton if you want, as has been illustrated countless times.


Damn, I wonder if there would be some way to get Brett Pesce onto our PK.

Do you not see how ridiculous it is to project Dougie to be decent on the PK having not played it for 4 years at age 32 but to not even give consideration that between Luke, Nemec and Casey the Devils could run an effective PP?

You can't keep both Hamilton and Kovy because you're blocking both Casey and Nemec. What is the plan? To hoard both of them at Utica until Dougies contract runs out three years from now?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

If you think this is the worst case scenario on Kovacevic I can certainly see why it would be a no brainer to keep him.

If you want to see what the risk of a Kovy deal is, go to pittsburgh.

They still owe Ryan Graves another 18 million dollars after this year (and he had a much larger sample of success)

Ryan Graves got moved on by a cup contender Colorado, he was never good to begin with. He was always a transitional 2nd pair dman until Luke was ready. They're not comparable at all.

The drop on the PK going from Kovy to Hamilton is a lot less than the drop of replacing dougie on the PP.

Nemec was very ineffective on the PP last year.

You can also keep Kovy and Hamilton if you want, as has been illustrated countless times.


Damn, I wonder if there would be some way to get Brett Pesce onto our PK.


Yeah and it f***ing bit us in the ass in 23-24 when we trusted siegs and marino to repeat what they did in 22-23 and they shit the f***ing bed.

Siegenthalar has gotten back to his 22-23 form this year, it's clear that last year was the blimp not 22-23.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Why is it not a good thing that dougie and dillon are winning their minutes by a significant margin since christmas?

Our third pair in terms of mins should not be our best defensive pair nightly. Like what?

 

[dgibb10]

Do you not see how ridiculous it is to project Dougie to be decent on the PK having not played it for 4 years at age 32 but to not even give consideration that between Luke, Nemec and Casey the Devils could run an effective PP?

You can't keep both Hamilton and Kovy because you're blocking both Casey and Nemec. What is the plan? To hoard both of them at Utica until Dougies contract runs out three years from now?

My plan has been illustrated many times.

Dump palat in the perfect year to dump mid level cap with a significant cap rise this offseason UNLESS an actual quality trade can be made for Hamilton, which I am MORE than open to. However most of you seem to want to give another contender an elite dman for nothing, or even PAY them for the privilege.

Resign Kovacevic.

Then ship Hamilton out after next year when his real money it is just 3 mill a year over the final 2 years of his contract and the cap is nearing 100 million dollars and after Bouchard and Dobson reset the market for this type of dman at 11+ mill each this offseason.

I think the smartest way to deal him would be having a 3rd party team getting to the cap floor serving to retain (eating just 3 mill in real money even at 50% retention) to make him an absolutely BEAUTIFUL looking asset at 4.5 mill x 2 cap hit even if he declines significantly.


The impact of a single individual on a PK2 is significantly less than an elite dman on a PP1. Nemec has also done some PKing. Between the 2 of them I expect 1 to be able to fill a role on PK2.


In terms of Casey, he's blocked regardless. Whether its Pesce Dougie Kovy, Pesce Dougie Nemec, Pesce Kovy Nemec, he's still blocked.

He has a full 3 year ELC which I would keep him on unless a valuable opportunity presents. He'll get opportunities when injuries occur and if he grabs it by the horns you adjust.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

My plan has been illustrated many times.

Dump palat in the perfect year to dump mid level cap with a significant cap rise this offseason UNLESS an actual quality trade can be made for Hamilton, which I am MORE than open to. However most of you seem to want to give another contender an elite dman for nothing, or even PAY them for the privilege.

Resign Kovacevic.

Then ship Hamilton out after next year when his real money it is just 3 mill a year over the final 2 years of his contract and the cap is nearing 100 million dollars and after Bouchard and Dobson reset the market for this type of dman at 11+ mill each this offseason.

I think the smartest way to deal him would be having a 3rd party team getting to the cap floor serving to retain (eating just 3 mill in real money even at 50% retention) to make him an absolutely BEAUTIFUL looking asset at 4.5 mill x 2 cap hit even if he declines significantly.


The impact of a single individual on a PK2 is significantly less than an elite dman on a PP1. Nemec has also done some PKing. Between the 2 of them I expect 1 to be able to fill a role on PK2.


In terms of Casey, he's blocked regardless. Whether its Pesce Dougie Kovy, Pesce Dougie Nemec, Pesce Kovy Nemec, he's still blocked.

He has a full 3 year ELC which I would keep him on unless a valuable opportunity presents. He'll get opportunities when injuries occur and if he grabs it by the horns you adjust.

Casey can outpace/out develop Nemec and that's when you would move Nemec for a prospect swap which is fine or the vice versa could happen. Let it play out between them before we anoint one guy as the next one.

 

[dgibb10]

Ryan Graves got moved on by a cup contender Colorado, he was never good to begin with. He was always a transitional 2nd pair dman until Luke was ready. They're not comparable at all.



Siegenthalar has gotten back to his 22-23 form this year, it's clear that last year was the blimp not 22-23.

A large part of my point is that Dougie Hamilton doesn't have these "blips".

These "shutdown guys" can come out of nowhere and then disappear just as fast. Elite offensive generation is trustworthy and consistent

I don't think I have to worry that dougie is going to forget how to generate offense all of a sudden and it tanks my entire year.

 

[Lou Bloom]

My plan has been illustrated many times.

Dump palat in the perfect year to dump mid level cap with a significant cap rise this offseason UNLESS an actual quality trade can be made for Hamilton, which I am MORE than open to. However most of you seem to want to give another contender an elite dman for nothing, or even PAY them for the privilege.

Resign Kovacevic.

Then ship Hamilton out after next year when his real money it is just 3 mill a year over the final 2 years of his contract and the cap is nearing 100 million dollars and after Bouchard and Dobson reset the market for this type of dman at 11+ mill each this offseason.

I think the smartest way to deal him would be having a 3rd party team getting to the cap floor serving to retain (eating just 3 mill in real money even at 50% retention) to make him an absolutely BEAUTIFUL looking asset at 4.5 mill x 2 cap hit even if he declines significantly.


The impact of a single individual on a PK2 is significantly less than an elite dman on a PP1. Nemec has also done some PKing. Between the 2 of them I expect 1 to be able to fill a role on PK2.


In terms of Casey, he's blocked regardless. Whether its Pesce Dougie Kovy, Pesce Dougie Nemec, Pesce Kovy Nemec, he's still blocked.

He has a full 3 year ELC which I would keep him on unless a valuable opportunity presents. He'll get opportunities when injuries occur and if he grabs it by the horns you adjust.

Palat is going to cost a 1st round pick at minimum to move his contract. It's wishful thinking the Devils can move off that contract without having to give up significant assets.

What if Dougie gets injured or hits a sharp decline? It's easy to just say we'll move him a year from now but that's not really a well thought out plan.

What team is going to eat $4.5M for 2 seasons? They'd need significant compensation to do so.

When your plan rests on teams trading for aging players on high AAV contracts and a potential 3rd team retaining multiple years to facilitate a trade, that doesn't seem like a good plan.

 

[dgibb10]

Palat is going to cost a 1st round pick at minimum to move his contract. It's wishful thinking the Devils can move off that contract without having to give up significant assets.

What if Dougie gets injured or hits a sharp decline? It's easy to just say we'll move him a year from now but that's not really a well thought out plan.

What team is going to eat $4.5M for 2 seasons? They'd need significant compensation to do so.

When your plan rests on teams trading for aging players on high AAV contracts and a potential 3rd team retaining multiple years to facilitate a trade, that doesn't seem like a good plan.

"What team is going to eat $4.5M for 2 seasons? They'd need significant compensation to do so."

The beauty of it is the real money is only 1.5 mill a year they have to retain for. 3 mill total in real money. How much do you think that costs. Let's go to the awful, very bad scenario, where 3 mill total in real money in retention somehow costs a 1st, and dougie significantly declines.

"it's not a well thought out plan" but not really. In fact this has been thought out WELL in advance. Do you think they structured his contract like this for shits and giggles?

At 4.5 mill x 2 under an near 100 mill cap, Dougie is still 100% worth a 1st from the team that ends up getting him, and you've now moved off his contract without giving up an asset even in a scenario where we're talking a significantly diminished dougie. He has that pedigree to back it up and hold value on a down year or an injury.

We just watched Jacob Trouba go for positive assets and you're concerned about if we can get out of Dougie hamilton's last 2 years. Lol

If Kovacevic reverts back to a 7D or gets injured and we've just given him 4 mill x 5 years for example, theres no getting out of that for free.

 

[dgibb10]

Palat is going to cost a 1st round pick at minimum to move his contract. It's wishful thinking the Devils can move off that contract without having to give up significant assets.

What if Dougie gets injured or hits a sharp decline? It's easy to just say we'll move him a year from now but that's not really a well thought out plan.

What team is going to eat $4.5M for 2 seasons? They'd need significant compensation to do so.

When your plan rests on teams trading for aging players on high AAV contracts and a potential 3rd team retaining multiple years to facilitate a trade, that doesn't seem like a good plan.

I've been prepared to pay a 1st to dump palat in this exact offseason for a year and a half now.

If he costs anything less that's a bonus.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Palat's play the last 6 weeks does not warrant a guy that needs to be dumped.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Im not great with the dollars and cents of it all but can we just buyout Palat after this season? If we wanted him gone

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Im not great with the dollars and cents of it all but can we just buyout Palat after this season? If we wanted him gone

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Palat's play the last 6 weeks does not warrant a guy that needs to be dumped.

I kinda agree as much as I'm one of his biggest detractors, I think getting a top 6 wing for Jack/Bratt and pushing Palat will do wonders for him playing lower in the lineup once that happens. That being said, his 10 team NTC isn't helpful but we'll see when that comes up

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

View attachment 959287

That doesnt seem so bad! Maybe that helps

 

[dgibb10]

I kinda agree as much as I'm one of his biggest detractors, I think getting a top 6 wing for Jack/Bratt and pushing Palat will do wonders for him playing lower in the lineup once that happens. That being said, his 10 team NTC isn't helpful but we'll see when that comes up

A smart and creative GM can find ways around it even if you aren't directly dumping him to SJS or Anaheim or something.

Eg, if he has detroit as a team on his available destinations, swap for Copp, who you can either keep as 3C, or since there are 22 teams you can send HIM to, dump him to one of those teams in a 3 way trade.

Or again, if a team likes palat at 4 mill but not 6, source that retention through a 3rd team. eg if contender C is willing to pay a 2nd for palat at 4 mill, we pay a 2nd to team B, and team B eats 2 mill for 2 years. Not into the specifics but can get creative with ways to dump him

That doesnt seem so bad! Maybe that helps

That is a really bad buyout unfortunately.

We only save 3 mill a year in the 2 years he's under contract, which would be what it would cost to replace him anyway. And then you eat 1.5 mill for another 2 years?

I'd rather pay a 1st+ to dump him than buy him out

 

[Lou Bloom]

"What team is going to eat $4.5M for 2 seasons? They'd need significant compensation to do so."

The beauty of it is the real money is only 1.5 mill a year they have to retain for. 3 mill total in real money. How much do you think that costs. Let's go to the awful, very bad scenario, where 3 mill total in real money in retention somehow costs a 1st, and dougie significantly declines.

"it's not a well thought out plan" but not really. In fact this has been thought out WELL in advance. Do you think they structured his contract like this for shits and giggles?

At 4.5 mill x 2 under an near 100 mill cap, Dougie is still 100% worth a 1st from the team that ends up getting him, and you've now moved off his contract without giving up an asset even in a scenario where we're talking a significantly diminished dougie. He has that pedigree to back it up and hold value on a down year or an injury.

If Kovacevic reverts back to a 7D or gets injured and we've just given him 4 mill x 5 years for example, theres no getting out of that for free.

That's still two years of actual cap space being bought out that said team would be losing opportunity cost on. Any team eating two years of $4.5M in cap is going to ask for a large incentive to do so.

You imply that Kovacevic could potentially revert to a 7th defenseman or get injured but can't see a scenario where Dougie completely falls off or gets injured and becomes negative asset? Look at how fast PK Subban went from Norris candidate to barely NHL caliber.

It just makes no sense to hinge your bets on a plan that includes a random team eating half of Hamilton's cap for two seasons and other potential variables falling place when you can just move off Hamilton this offseason (In this hypothetical) and replace him internally with two high end RD prospects for a fraction of the cost.

I've been prepared to pay a 1st to dump palat in this exact offseason for a year and a half now.

If he costs anything less that's a bonus.

So moving off Dougie for free and saving $9M with an easy internal solution in place is a bad move but paying a team a 1st round pick (that could be used to actually add talent) to take Palat when the team is already short on forward talent is a good move? This plan makes no sense.

 

[dgibb10]

That's still two years of actual cap space being bought out that said team would be losing opportunity cost on. Any team eating two years of $4.5M in cap is going to ask for a large incentive to do so.

You imply that Kovacevic could potentially revert to a 7th defenseman or get injured but can't see a scenario where Dougie completely falls off or gets injured and becomes negative asset? Look at how fast PK Subban went from Norris candidate to barely NHL caliber.

It just makes no sense to hinge your bets on a plan that includes a random team eating half of Hamilton's cap for two seasons and other potential variables falling place when you can just move off Hamilton this offseason (In this hypothetical) and replace him internally with two high end RD prospects for a fraction of the cost.

"Look at how fast PK Subban went from Norris candidate to barely NHL caliber."

Yeah, and he STILL fetched a pair of 2nds on a 9x3 contract with 26 million dollars in real money left on it when the cap was 80 million dollars even after he fell off his final year in Nashville.

Meanwhile, dougie will have 9x2 with just 6 million dollars in real money, and the cap will be approaching 100 mill.

 

[Lou Bloom]

"Look at how fast PK Subban went from Norris candidate to barely NHL caliber."

Yeah, and he STILL fetched a pair of 2nds on a 9x3 contract with 26 million dollars in real money left on it when the cap was 80 million dollars even after he fell off his final year in Nashville.

Meanwhile, dougie will have 9x2 with just 6 million dollars in real money, and the cap will be approaching 100 mill.

Subban was 30 and still had a respectable season the year prior and was a Norris finalist the year before. He had value because you could make an argument given his age that the previous season wasn't a sign of decline but an aberration.

Dougie would be 33 in your scenario. If his play falls off or if he has injury issues (which are more common in older players) then teams are going to assume that it is a clear sign of decline.

 

[dgibb10]

So moving off Dougie for free and saving $9M with an easy internal solution in place is a bad move but paying a team a 1st round pick (that could be used to actually add talent) to take Palat when the team is already short on forward talent is a good move? This plan makes no sense.

Gritysuk replaces Palat.

I do not expect any meaningful impact to the Jack-Bratt line if they lose Palat on it, and he is not a meaningful special teams contributor.

With dougie, I expect a significant impact on our PP, both to PP1, and as a byproduct PP2 (loses luke's entries). I'd estimate it at around a 4% drop to our PP (note, our PP after dougie got hurt was at 17% last year, so that may be lowballing it) which would be 10 goals lost on the year. And a drop 5v5 as well (because again, he is a 55% xGoal share player consistently) of around 5 goals (he averages about +15 a year in this regard)

I don't think a 1st+3 mill in space (diff between Dougie and Palat) is NEARLY enough to acquire a player who will make up for those 15 goals.

 

[MadDevil]

Palat's contract sucks but I don't think we're at "must get rid of" territory. Plus, as much as he's loved in the locker room, does anybody really think they're dumping him this soon?

 

[Lou Bloom]

Gritysuk replaces Palat.

I do not expect any meaningful impact to the Jack-Bratt line if they lose Palat on it.

With dougie, I expect a significant impact on our PP, both to PP1, and as a byproduct PP2 (loses luke's entries). I'd estimate it at around a 4% drop to our PP (note, our PP after dougie got hurt was at 17% last year, so that may be lowballing it) which would be 10 goals lost on the year. And a drop 5v5 as well (because again, he is a 55% xGoal share player consistently) of around 5 goals.

I don't think a 1st+3 mill in space (diff between Dougie and Palat) is NEARLY enough to acquire a player who will make up for those 15 goals.

So you're okay with Gritsyuk playing a top 6 role as a rookie but expecting Casey or Nemec to play a bottom pairing, PP2/PP1 role is too much? Despite Casey and Nemec being more proven and talented?

And how do you account for aging? Dougie will be 32, Luke will be 22 and Nemec and Casey will be 21. Do you not think that Dougie is on a downward trajectory at this point in his career and Luke, Nemec and Casey are on an upward trajectory?

 

[Emperoreddy]

This makes me think you don't know how much cap space we actually have.

If you move out Dougie, Palat, MacDermid and Haula. you would have 22 million dollars in cap space and these roster positions to fill:

-Backup goalie (replace Allen)
-Healthy Scratch 1 (replace MacDermid)
-Healthy Scratch 2 (replace Dowling)
-Healthy Scratch 3 (replace DeSimone)
-4LW (replace Tatar)
-4C (replace Lazar)
-4RW (replace Bastian)
-3C (replace Haula)

22 mill to try and fill out depth is entirely unneeded.

$10 million is new contracts for Luke and Kovy alone. Luke is getting at least $8 million and that's probably low. Kovy $4 million and that might be low.

Assume Palat can't be moved. You now only have $6 million or so to fill two bottom 6 center spots, a top 6 winger, back up goalie, and multiple bottom 6 winger spots.

We can't afford to keep Dougie and expect to ice a contending forward group next year.

And that is before getting into him blocking RD prospects that need to be in the NHL next year.

If there is a team willing to take Dougie in the offseason. You deal him, there is zero debate to be had

 

[dgibb10]

$10 million is new contracts for Luke and Kovy alone. Luke is getting at least $8 million and that's probably low. Kovy $4 million and that might be low.

Assume Palat can't be moved. You now only have $6 million or so to fill two bottom 6 center spots, a top 6 winger, back up goalie, and multiple bottom 6 winger spots.

We can't afford to keep Dougie and expect to ice a contending forward group next year.

And that is before getting into him blocking RD prospects that need to be in the NHL next year.

If there is a team willing to take Dougie in the offseason. You deal him, there is zero debate to be had

Luke and Kovy's contracts were both already accounted for in that calculation at 8.6 mill for luke and 4 mill for Kovy.

Hence why I didn't include 2 dmen as needed to sign.

If you actually knew our cap situation you would know that.

If we keep palat we only need 1 winger, somehow you included 3 to sign, again showing you don't know the situation

Palat,Noesen,Mercer,Grits,Bratt,Cotter,Meier. That is 7/8 wingers accounted for.

 

[dgibb10]

So you're okay with Gritsyuk playing a top 6 role as a rookie but expecting Casey or Nemec to play a bottom pairing, PP2/PP1 role is too much? Despite Casey and Nemec being more proven and talented?

And how do you account for aging? Dougie will be 32, Luke will be 22 and Nemec and Casey will be 21. Do you not think that Dougie is on a downward trajectory at this point in his career and Luke, Nemec and Casey are on an upward trajectory?

Grits has multiple years in the KHL and is older. The 3rd winger along Jack and Bratt for 14 minutes a night has a FRACTION of the impact that Dougie has for 20 minutes a night. And if he falters you move Haula, or Mercer, or Cotter into that role

 

[dgibb10]

We can't afford to keep Dougie and expect to ice a contending forward group next year.

Did you know If the cap goes up to 94 mill we can keep together the EXACT same roster we currently have with the only substitutions being Tatar replaced by Gritsyuk, and Allen replaced by Daws.

I'm sure you didn't because again, you don't actually know the situation beyond ideas of "luke need big extension"

Luke's needed a big extension for 2+ years now do you think Fitzgerald just realized that this year?