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Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III
- Thread starter NJDevs26
- Start date
dgibb10
Registered User
@ZachaFlockaFlame
A) Hamilton has not regressed. We have improved our other pairings. Hamilton is playing at exactly the same 55% xGoal, high event, elite offensive level he always has.
B) The RHD UFA market is utterly atrocious, paired with a rising cap and tiny real money cost makes dougie look VERY attractive. Especially when Bouchard and Dobson get 11 mill a year.
C) Kovacevic and Dougie can both be kept as has been shown many times to you. You'd be giving away Dougie to keep PALAT, not Kovacevic. (there is absolutely 0 we need to move both, considering it would give us 15 mill in cap to fill out 3 bottom 6 forward slots, a ridiculously excessive amount of space)
D) trusting 1 year of Kovacevic (who has started to slip lately as much as people want to ignore it) over the decade of elite play dougie has shown, is a significant risk.
Here is our last 11 games.
Their chemistry is unbelievable. I'm always impressed at how they are able to find each other for passes and scoring chances even through traffic.
It's A Line-level anticipation of what each other are going to do. And I hope their line enters Devils lore for the same reason: being the engine that powers a Cup win.
MB3
Registered User
dougie hamilton plays the most coddled, protected minutes of any defenseman I've ever seen. he still makes stupid mistakes and horrible plays on a nightly basis. I don't care what his xGF% is, anyone with a working pair of eyes can see that he's a severely declining offensive defenseman, he's blocking Nemec/Casey, and he plays one of the few positions on the Devils with an organizational surplus.
he's deployed as a bottom pairing guy (5th defenseman on the team in ATOI(EV), he's coddled beyond belief (lowest on the team in dZS% for regular defenseman), and is given the easiest assignments every night. oh, and he's the highest paid player on the team
he should 100% be moved as painlessly as possible as soon as possible. I loved the signing, I loved what he brought for us, but I'm very ready to not see him out there any more.
he's deployed as a bottom pairing guy (5th defenseman on the team in ATOI(EV), he's coddled beyond belief (lowest on the team in dZS% for regular defenseman), and is given the easiest assignments every night. oh, and he's the highest paid player on the team
he should 100% be moved as painlessly as possible as soon as possible. I loved the signing, I loved what he brought for us, but I'm very ready to not see him out there any more.
Triumph
Registered User
To head off this endless Hamilton discussion that you can just read from 2 weeks ago, Nico is perfectly fine. Right now, everyone on the Devils is clearly not at 100%, the team is just out of sync with one another and it's reflected in the way everyone is playing. I wish the team had more than 2 days off between the end of the road trip and now, but it is what it is.
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Lets Go Baby
bossram
Registered User
I'm not that down on Dougie, but I was very early in the "pre-emptively trade Dougie" camp.
The trajectory he's going down is obvious and Fitz needs to find a dumb GM to take the cap hit on. As Dougie's mobility continues to decline, he will have to play more and more sheltered EV minutes. His utility is mainly on the PP and the Devils have younger players that can assume that role.
He was one of my favourite players, but the Devils have to make the right decision here. They should find a taker in the offseason.
Better Call Sal
Salnalysis
Nico is last on my list of complaints. He's shouldering a ridiculous load from a defensive perspective, and his line is still driving play at a high rate. Yes, I want more consistent production from the big guns and he's included in there. But given his overall, 200 foot game, I'm not as worried about his game as I would be others if they're not producing.
I see Jack took the blame for OT. I appreciate and respect that.
dgibb10
Registered User
Offensive dman gets offensive zone starts, truly shocking relevation. Just wait till you see Cale Makar's zone starts (hint, he gets TWICE as many ozone starts as Dougie).
His deployment isn't meaningfully different than it has been previously in his career (although Dillon is a worse partner than Siegs was). Nor are his results.
We just have our OTHER pairings playing better than they have in years past, which somehow you all confuse with Dougie being worse.
He brings the same things he brought when we signed him. Was dougie some tough minute eating dman when we signed him?
Meanwhile this thread will continue to claim NJD doesn't generate enough 5v5 offense while also advocating for trading away one of the best 5v5 offense generating dman in the league. The list of guys who generate more than him over the last 3 years is 2-3 guys long (4 if you want to count their partners)
Bouchard (Ekholm)
Burns (Slavin)
Karlsson (Pettersson)
And he's still 8th in the league in 5v5 xGF this year too.
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TheBeerNerd
of the New Jersey Meatwads
I agree, but it's also a big red alarm saying that they need bottom six help.
I'm less concerned about offense than the defense which, once again, played way too loose last night. Did the Canes rattle them so hard that they completely abandoned what worked?
dgibb10
Registered User
NJD with dougie on the ice 5v5 this year: 3.14 goals/60. This would be 1st in the league (WSH at 3.03)
NJD with dougie not on the ice 5v5 this year: 2.09goals/60: This would be 29th in the league.
Anyone suggesting Dougie traded needs to kindly pipe down about NJDs 5v5 offense.
NJD with dougie not on the ice 5v5 this year: 2.09goals/60: This would be 29th in the league.
Anyone suggesting Dougie traded needs to kindly pipe down about NJDs 5v5 offense.
Zippy316
aka Zippo
There’s a serious argument to be made that was discussed a ton already in the last couple months that it makes a ton of sense to move Dougie after this year.
Move him a year early rather than a year too late, get good value for him, resign Kovacevic and bring up Nemec, and let Luke fully take on the top offensive D and PP#1 role.
He’s still a very effective offensive defenseman and anyone saying otherwise is quite frankly just plain wrong.
dgibb10
Registered User
I agree. A trade could make sense
But the second we get into "let's give one of the best OFD away to a contender AND let's give them draft picks for their trouble" it becomes silly.
And trading dougie does mean we keep palat just so everyone is 100% aware.
TheBeerNerd
of the New Jersey Meatwads
So we may need both Casey and Nemec in the future. Luke Hughes will come to his own in driving the offense but it's clear Dougie serves an immediate need, and likely at least a year after this one.
Zippy316
aka Zippo
Timeline wise, I think it makes far more sense to deal Hamilton this summer and deal Palat next summer.
Hamilton will be coming off being PP1 option and Luke likely usurps him next year which would likely cause his numbers to drop if he stays. Then you’d also be able to keep Kovacevic if it’s done this summer.
Palat would be in the final year of his deal and much easier to move as a cap dump, fingers crossed Tampa would be interested in him to let him finish his career there.
Ol Dirty Bstrd
Registered User
Reposting this since this got buried in the locked thread. Not sure we are great trade partners with NSH since they desperately need Cs and we don’t have any to give.
We might have to dump Haula to make this work, but I’d be really interested in O’Reilly at the deadline if Nashville goes that route. Probably wouldn’t come cheap but he’d be an ideal 3C to staple Mercer to and get some offense further down the lineup. Brings the cliche ‘winning pedigree.’ Two more years at a reasonable $4.5M, although he’s obviously older so might fall off a cliff at some point.
Other targets I like at 3C are Gourde who is a UFA that may have lost a step or Laughton who has one more year at $3M (lol at Philly asking for a 1st though).
Please Fitz, stay the hell away from plugs like Jake Evans or Trent Frederic who will command way more than they’re worth (and in Freddie’s case isn’t even a true C). If we’re going cheap, I’d rather offer a 4th and throwaway prospect for Bjugstad who won’t move the needle but is just as effective (arguably more) as those guys.
Ideally I would like to bring in a middle 6 winger too but I’m not sure who fits the bill and how we could afford both (unless we go for a cheaper 3C).
We might have to dump Haula to make this work, but I’d be really interested in O’Reilly at the deadline if Nashville goes that route. Probably wouldn’t come cheap but he’d be an ideal 3C to staple Mercer to and get some offense further down the lineup. Brings the cliche ‘winning pedigree.’ Two more years at a reasonable $4.5M, although he’s obviously older so might fall off a cliff at some point.
Other targets I like at 3C are Gourde who is a UFA that may have lost a step or Laughton who has one more year at $3M (lol at Philly asking for a 1st though).
Please Fitz, stay the hell away from plugs like Jake Evans or Trent Frederic who will command way more than they’re worth (and in Freddie’s case isn’t even a true C). If we’re going cheap, I’d rather offer a 4th and throwaway prospect for Bjugstad who won’t move the needle but is just as effective (arguably more) as those guys.
Ideally I would like to bring in a middle 6 winger too but I’m not sure who fits the bill and how we could afford both (unless we go for a cheaper 3C).
Zippy316
aka Zippo
On the Hall discussion, I’m not the biggest fan of him as a fit, but if the value is cheap say a 3rd + middling prospect, then it could make sense to add him.
Either way, he can’t be the only move as this team really needs to add another center option. With how veteran our forward group is, I’m still in favor of targeting a young center option like Frost or Ryan McLeod.
With Hall + McLeod/Frost, Devils could ice something like:
Palat - Hughes - Bratt
Meier - Hischier - Mercer
Hall - McLeod/Frost - Noesen
Cotter - Haula - Lazar
Tatar - Dowling - Bastian
Either way, he can’t be the only move as this team really needs to add another center option. With how veteran our forward group is, I’m still in favor of targeting a young center option like Frost or Ryan McLeod.
With Hall + McLeod/Frost, Devils could ice something like:
Palat - Hughes - Bratt
Meier - Hischier - Mercer
Hall - McLeod/Frost - Noesen
Cotter - Haula - Lazar
Tatar - Dowling - Bastian
dgibb10
Registered User
Luke is driving expected offense but unfortunately it's not yet translating into actual goals (his forwards cannot f***ing bury for some reason)
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TheBeerNerd
of the New Jersey Meatwads
No kidding. We're only ahead of Nashville in wasting offense with awful finishing.
dgibb10
Registered User
In my mind it's simply a value proposition between 3 guys.
Kovy
Palat
Hamilton
with the variables being:
How much can we recieve in trade for Hamilton now, how much can we recieve next year
How much does it cost to dump Palat, how much will it cost next year
How much does it cost to resign Kovacevic
If it costs a ridiculous amount (1st++) to dump palat, you pivot to moving/losing one of the others.
If Kovy wants a massive AAV high risk deal, you let him walk.
If a team offers you a quality package for dougie, you move him.
