Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I probably dislike Mercer more than anyone on this board, but trading him for a comparable forward is not a good idea IMO.

 

[Devil X]

Carolina and Colorado just traded elite level players midseason. I don't think Mercer for a 3C is going to tank this team's chemistry.

We don’t know what the end result of that is yet. In addition I just to see the point of doing that type of hockey trade mid season. Use assets and add to Mercer unless Mercer is part of a bigger deal bringing in a better overall player.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I would never trade Mercer for Pinto but that's me. If Pinto runs afoul of the NHL again vis a vis gambling he is probably banned for life, and that's just leaving aside the fact that Pinto really doesn't appear to be an on-ice upgrade.

That's fine with disagree on a player. I think Pinto is going to be a very good two-way 3C moving forward bordering on 2C. I actually think Ottawa would decline the trade but if that was on the table I would absolutely trade Mercer for Pinto.

It's just semantics. Please understand that what you are doing is just playing a word game and not actually saying anything. To me, you improve depth by adding another player to what you have. You insert another player on to your depth chart somewhere between 1 and 12, without subtracting anything, or alternately add 2 players and subtract 1, etc. You can improve by trading a worse player for a better player, but you are not improving your depth by doing so.

That's just a silly argument. If I traded our 7th-12th rated forwards for 6 better players would you then say we didn't improve the depth because we have the same number of players? The lack of depth concern is intrinsically linked with quality.

This isn't an example. There is no such thing as 'the next Sam Bennett'. But sure, in your hypothetical example that's meant to make my argument look unsound, I would do that.

The point of the example is to just prove that there's players you're willing to trade Mercer for in order to improve the team. Which is my whole point.

Kakko is a terrible example because he has always struggled to get more than 3rd line ice time - he did that age 21 season and then that was it. Mercer is playing over 17 minutes a game, he's playing on PP2 and PK1; he's 4th among Devils forwards in TOI/game. This is why talking about things in terms of 'top 6' and 'bottom 6' is foolish. If Mercer continues to play that much, there's no difference between trading him now (almost certainly at the lowest point of his value, given on-ice shooting percentages and the like) and trading him next season.

The point with Kakko was to show that past performance/Potential will lose value value over time with age. the further Kakko got from being the 2nd overall pick, the lower his value became. The same logic is extended with Mercer, the further he gets from his age 21 season without producing close to those numbers the lower his value will become.

 

[Normal Devil]

5 more years after this for Miller.

Tough call .. Fitz would have to think he's the missing piece to a title in the next two years or so to do it. I'm guessing he ain't the missing piece.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I probably dislike Mercer more than anyone on this board, but trading him for a comparable forward is not a good idea IMO.

It depends on the player. If the Devils are offered a player they believe could be an elite 3C for multiple years then why wouldn't they trade Mercer? We've seen tons of centers that broke out in their mid 20s (Bennett, Eriksson Ek, Stephenson, Karlsson, etc..) If the Devils pro scouting sees a player become available that they think can have a similar upward development then unless you believe the same for Mercer why would you pass up that kind of deal?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

It depends on the player. If the Devils are offered a player they believe could be an elite 3C for multiple years then why wouldn't they trade Mercer? We've seen tons of centers that broke out in their mid 20s (Bennett, Eriksson Ek, Stephenson, Karlsson, etc..) If the Devils pro scouting sees a player become available that they think can have a similar upward development then unless you believe the same for Mercer why would you pass up that kind of deal?

because if you make that deal, then you need to get another middle 6 winger and it kind of puts us in the same position.

I realize centers are more important, but yea.

 

[Lou Bloom]

because if you make that deal, then you need to get another middle 6 winger and it kind of puts us in the same position.

I realize centers are more important, but yea.

If you're getting a better player at a more important position doesn't that tell you it would be logical to make that deal then?

Not to mention finding middle 6 wingers is a much easier task to find than a high end 3C.

 

[Devil X]

If you're getting a better player at a more important position doesn't that tell you it would be logical to make that deal then?

Not to mention finding middle 6 wingers is a much easier task to find than a high end 3C.

But if done via trade requires the use of more assets. Which in the long run should probably be used in other ways.

Unless your pulling off a Carolina and Colorado trade it doesnt make sense to move out roster players like that in the middle of a season and playoff run. Even still we dont know what kind of impact that trade will end up having on their respective teams. We have all seen trades midseason be duds because the players dont mesh right.

Unless I am getting the significantly better player I'm not sure a "hockey trade" should be done here. Oh and yes if we are talking Miller he is significantly better the Mercer right now.

 

[Maine Fan]

I was glad to read today, Saturday, that Keefe thought Nico would be day to day. We can not afford to lose Nico and Markstorm at the same time. Get well guys.

 

[Lou Bloom]

But if done via trade requires the use of more assets. Which in the long run should probably be used in other ways.

Unless your pulling off a Carolina and Colorado trade it doesnt make sense to move out roster players like that in the middle of a season and playoff run. Even still we dont know what kind of impact that trade will end up having on their respective teams. We have all seen trades midseason be duds because the players dont mesh right.

Unless I am getting the significantly better player I'm not sure a "hockey trade" should be done here. Oh and yes if we are talking Miller he is significantly better the Mercer right now.

Of course it can make sense if you're getting a player you view as better and a better team fit. 2021 Sam Bennett was traded for a 2nd round pick and recently drafted 2nd rounder prospect (Mercer probably has more value than Bennett did at that time). He went to Florida and put up 15 points in 10 regular season games and 5 points in 5 playoff games. He then signed an extension and was a pivotal piece in Florida's Stanley Cup winning team.

Would you not trade Mercer for that outcome of a similarly valued player at a position of greater need because of mid season trade?

 

[Devil X]

Of course it can make sense if you're getting a player you view as better and a better team fit. 2021 Sam Bennett was traded for a 2nd round pick and recently drafted 2nd rounder prospect (Mercer probably has more value than Bennett did at that time). He went to Florida and put up 15 points in 10 regular season games and 5 points in 5 playoff games. He then signed an extension and was a pivotal piece in Florida's Stanley Cup winning team.

Would you not trade Mercer for that outcome of a similarly valued player at a position of greater need because of mid season trade?

If you are asking if i would trade for Sam Bennett sending a 2nd and a prospect at that time yea i would, i would trade for a player of his type now with that same deal.

If you asking me if i would had traded Sam Bennett type now for Dawson Mercer no because Sam Bennett was not that good at the time. He had 12 points in 38 game for the Flames when he was traded. He had broken 30 points once in the previous 6 seasons before that.

The Panthers made a trade to ADD depth to their roster they didn't expect to get what they got.

Bennett is not a better overall player then Mercer he just has more experience. Bennett has never broken 50 points, he got 49 7 seasons into his NHL career Mercer broke 50 in his second.

Mercer in your scenario is the player you would WANT to trade for. They 23 year old who had a couple good early seasons but fell off a little maybe and needs a change. Which is exactly the kind of trade you do in the summer.

Mercer is also the type a of player a team would want back if they are trading a big star or better player for the same reasons highlighted above.

 

[Lou Bloom]

If you are asking if i would trade for Sam Bennett sending a 2nd and a prospect at that time yea i would, i would trade for a player of his type now with that same deal.

If you asking me if i would had traded Sam Bennett type now for Dawson Mercer no because Sam Bennett was not that good at the time. He had 12 points in 38 game for the Flames when he was traded. He had broken 30 points once in the previous 6 seasons before that.

The Panthers made a trade to ADD depth to their roster they didn't expect to get what they got.

Bennett is not a better overall player then Mercer he just has more experience. Bennett has never broken 50 points, he got 49 7 seasons into his NHL career Mercer broke 50 in his second.

Mercer in your scenario is the player you would WANT to trade for. They 23 year old who had a couple good early seasons but fell off a little maybe and needs a change. Which is exactly the kind of trade you do in the summer.

Mercer is also the type a of player a team would want back if they are trading a big star or better player for the same reasons highlighted above.

The point of the hypothetical was to show that a player that is perceived as lower or similar value to Mercer could have a bigger impact both in the short term and long term.

Bennett is clearly the better overall player, it's not just about point totals. Would you make the same argument that Mercer is a better overall player than Blake Coleman because Coleman never surpassed Mercer's 56 season point total?

It's not just about age or change of scenery. Mercer is limited due to his physical tools and overall skill level. It's possible he turns his career around and becomes a legit top 6 option but we're on year 4 now and he's been unable to secure a role next to two elite centers in Hughes and Hischier. If he's going to continue being a sub 40 point 3rd line winger than his value is limited. If a team is willing to buy high on him from his early career point totals/draft status than trading him for an up and coming 3C that can secure that position for multiple years would be ideal.

I'm also fine with trading Mercer in a package for a star if one were to become available. But that doesn't preclude the option of trading him for a similarly valued young center that might be a better short and long term fit. Just because players may be similar in trade value doesn't mean they're on similar career paths/trajectories.

 

[guitarguyvic]

The point of the hypothetical was to show that a player that is perceived as lower or similar value to Mercer could have a bigger impact both in the short term and long term.

Bennett is clearly the better overall player, it's not just about point totals. Would you make the same argument that Mercer is a better overall player than Blake Coleman because Coleman never surpassed Mercer's 56 season point total?

It's not just about age or change of scenery. Mercer is limited due to his physical tools and overall skill level. It's possible he turns his career around and becomes a legit top 6 option but we're on year 4 now and he's been unable to secure a role next to two elite centers in Hughes and Hischier. If he's going to continue being a sub 40 point 3rd line winger than his value is limited. If a team is willing to buy high on him from his early career point totals/draft status than trading him for an up and coming 3C that can secure that position for multiple years would be ideal.

I'm also fine with trading Mercer in a package for a star if one were to become available. But that doesn't preclude the option of trading him for a similarly valued young center that might be a better short and long term fit. Just because players may be similar in trade value doesn't mean they're on similar career paths/trajectories.

This doesn’t add depth to the lineup though. You said yourself this would require making another move for a winger. What’s the point? Might as well just keep Mercer and find other assets to trade for a 3C to add to him.

We need a higher quantity of good bottom six guys, not a higher quality of one single middle six player. You trade Mercer and you’re not doing anything about the quantity of good players on the roster.

 

[Lou Bloom]

This doesn’t add depth to the lineup though. You said yourself this would require making another move for a winger. What’s the point? Might as well just keep Mercer and find other assets to trade for a 3C to add to him.

We need a higher quantity of good bottom six guys, not a higher quality of one single middle six player. You trade Mercer and you’re not doing anything about the quantity of good players on the roster.

You'd be getting a better player at a tougher position to acquire. By your same logic would the Devils not be improving their top 6 if they traded Meier for McDavid because after all that's one good forward going in vs one good forward going out. Might as well just just keep Meier and find other assets for a top 6 improvement.

What's harder to acquire a 3C or a 3rd line winger?

 

[RSeen]

I say this with all due respect

do some of you guys even watch these games?

also, faceoffs are next to meaningless.

Are you acting like Jack actually ever engages physicality at all? He has 5 hits in 51 games, and rarely makes any effort in forechecking - I don't see how anyone can really say differently.

 

[Devils731]

Are you acting like Jack actually ever engages physicality at all? He has 5 hits in 51 games, and rarely makes any effort in forechecking - I don't see how anyone can really say differently.

Jack is kind of a menace on the forecheck, his stick is very active and he’s often looking to catch the opponent being lazy in the breakout.

 

[RSeen]

Jack is kind of a menace on the forecheck, his stick is very active and he’s often looking to catch the opponent being lazy in the breakout.

How often does that work? Rarely...

 

[Devils731]

How often does that work? Rarely...

More often than most forecheckers? Jack creates lots of turnovers on the defensive side of the rink, probably the most on the team.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I would trade Mercer for Pinto but Ottawa isn't going to do that

 

[Devil X]

The point of the hypothetical was to show that a player that is perceived as lower or similar value to Mercer could have a bigger impact both in the short term and long term.

Bennett is clearly the better overall player, it's not just about point totals. Would you make the same argument that Mercer is a better overall player than Blake Coleman because Coleman never surpassed Mercer's 56 season point total?

It's not just about age or change of scenery. Mercer is limited due to his physical tools and overall skill level. It's possible he turns his career around and becomes a legit top 6 option but we're on year 4 now and he's been unable to secure a role next to two elite centers in Hughes and Hischier. If he's going to continue being a sub 40 point 3rd line winger than his value is limited. If a team is willing to buy high on him from his early career point totals/draft status than trading him for an up and coming 3C that can secure that position for multiple years would be ideal.

I'm also fine with trading Mercer in a package for a star if one were to become available. But that doesn't preclude the option of trading him for a similarly valued young center that might be a better short and long term fit. Just because players may be similar in trade value doesn't mean they're on similar career paths/trajectories.

You'd be getting a better player at a tougher position to acquire. By your same logic would the Devils not be improving their top 6 if they traded Meier for McDavid because after all that's one good forward going in vs one good forward going out. Might as well just just keep Meier and find other assets for a top 6 improvement.

What's harder to acquire a 3C or a 3rd line winger?

The biggest flaw i find in your logic is your player comps you're using. They took a shot with a 2nd and a prospect. I would take a shot with a 2nd and a prospect over trading Mercer off the team to then need to still trade away assets to get more depth.

Mid season, playoff run, "hockey trade" they way you are talking dont happen. Find me a trade like the one you are talking about. Because Sam Bennett isnt it that was an asset trade that everyone on this board would do for depth. I get you are just using him but all things being equal Sam Bennett then for Dawson Mercer now I dont think i would do, especially not mid season.

We have different ways of thinking about it. To me that trade is made in the summer not now. You see if differently thats fine. Likely for us Fitz makes these choices haha.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I get being frustrated with Mercer but I’m probably not moving him for a like player mid season. Maybe in the Summer. You don’t want to run the risk in season or taking a step back with the forwards.

This^.
I don't get the sell-low on Mercer just bc he's what teams might want.

You give to get, but in this case a 3C isn't enough to give up Mercer, and I'd give him up only if we get a legit top line scoring LW that at least threatens to push us over the edge.

And that probably means parting with a blue chip D.

 

[billingtons ghost]

That's fine with disagree on a player. I think Pinto is going to be a very good two-way 3C moving forward bordering on 2C. I actually think Ottawa would decline the trade but if that was on the table I would absolutely trade Mercer for Pinto.

That's just a silly argument. If I traded our 7th-12th rated forwards for 6 better players would you then say we didn't improve the depth because we have the same number of players? The lack of depth concern is intrinsically linked with quality.

The point of the example is to just prove that there's players you're willing to trade Mercer for in order to improve the team. Which is my whole point.

The point with Kakko was to show that past performance/Potential will lose value value over time with age. the further Kakko got from being the 2nd overall pick, the lower his value became. The same logic is extended with Mercer, the further he gets from his age 21 season without producing close to those numbers the lower his value will become.

Idk man. The obvious counter here is: the Rags misused him, drove down his value and sold low. Kakko is somewhat flourishing in a bigger role in Seattle.

In seasons past I'm down for a change of scenery deck chair swap, but this year, if we're serious about going for it, you use Mercer to land a big big fish if all possible.

 

[Maine Fan]

We are lucky, if that is possible, Markstrom is going to be out 4 weeks our last Devils game is February 8th the next one is February 22nd so that is 14 days of no Devils play, good healing time for him. We only have 6 game between January 27 and February 22, that is a full 4 week period for him to heal and the Devil's to be without his services. He got injured on January 22nd. This is a good break for our team.

 

[Guadana]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Pinto isn't upgrade over Mercer now, he isn't "Mcdavid over Meier" upgrade at all. He has gambling problem and he can have chemistry questions.
If Devils wants to upgrade this roster they should at least save Mercer and trade third line center for assets. Not just finding player with the same advanced stats and close to the same or lower stats and hope that player will be better.

Devils are not in the situation for "hoping" trade. If they think that some player can be better or much better they should pay less.

 

[britdevil]

View attachment 967767
View attachment 967768

Not good enough and expect more.