Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[RNCDevil]

The top 6, particularly Bratt and Jack were carrying the burden to a great extent. One could argue most team are highly skewed. Noesen to Bratt is 27 points to 48 points. That's 5 players.

After the top 5, no forward has more than 20 points (Mercer). The Jets have 10 players, two of whom have 33 and 37 points as d-men. It's skewed, and the top 6 contributions were masking just how ineffective the bottom 6 were. The 6 don't seem to offer much going forward at all aside from Cotter and Mercer. Haula, Bastian, Lazar, Tatar, McDermid, Dowling have 30 points total (5 points per player).

The defense also has eye test issues. They were forcing passes, missing passes and just not as good positionally as they have been and Dougie getting beat on power and speed happens WAY to much. Some of these can get fixed/regress positively but they need to figure out how to get some more threatening players. Gritty seems like the only scorer (maybe Beckman) in the whole system.

Utica is total garbage. I seriously might consider Casey as a third line winger.

 

[devilsblood]

The top 6, particularly Bratt and Jack were carrying the burden to a great extent. One could argue most team are highly skewed. Noesen to Bratt is 27 points to 48 points. That's 5 players.

After the top 5, no forward has more than 20 points (Mercer). The Jets have 10 players, two of whom have 33 and 37 points as d-men. It's skewed, and the top 6 contributions were masking just how ineffective the bottom 6 were. The 6 don't seem to offer much going forward at all aside from Cotter and Mercer. Haula, Bastian, Lazar, Tatar, McDermid, Dowling have 30 points total (5 points per player).

The defense also has eye test issues. They were forcing passes, missing passes and just not as good positionally as they have been and Dougie getting beat on power and speed happens WAY to much. Some of these can get fixed/regress positively but they need to figure out how to get some more threatening players. Gritty seems like the only scorer (maybe Beckman) in the whole system.

Utica is total garbage. I seriously might consider Casey as a third line winger.

Really just on the PP.

5v5 Noesen and Cotter have as many goals as Jack. Palat has one less 5v5 goal then Jack, All these guys have more 5v5 goals then Bratt. Mercer has one less Bratt.

Nico and Timo are 1 & 2 in terms of 5v5 goals.

 

[My3Sons]

I prefer to believe that you make your own luck

Again over the long haul sure but small sample sizes have a random impact.

 

[MB3]

you can get a 3C pretty easily at the deadline without having to trade a top flight prospect.

Who said anything about trading those guys for a 3C? I said the forward group is so poor that Dowling is a 3C. Trade one of those guys for a legitimate top-6 player with term, and you can scoot Palat or Mercer to the 3rd line where they probably belong.

 

[devilsblood]

Who said anything about trading those guys for a 3C? I said the forward group is so poor that Dowling is a 3C. Trade one of those guys for a legitimate top-6 player with term, and you can scoot Palat or Mercer to the 3rd line where they probably belong.

Can we even do that cap wise?

 

[MB3]

Can we even do that cap wise?

ideally you move a player on his ELC for another player on his ELC.

 

[Lou Bloom]

If Nemec, Saliyev and Casey are still on this team come trade deadline I’ll have an aneurism.

A wealth & abundance of defensive prospects is a great thing unless you white knuckle the f*** out of them while Dowling plays 3C on a team with cup aspirations.

I'm fine with trading one of the RDs but there's no guarantee a player worth trading them for will be available at the trade deadline. You're not trading one of them for a rental, so unless a team decides to trade an impact player with multiple years left on their contact (that's also able to fit into our current cap space) then it doesn't make sense to have a hardline stance on trading them at the deadline.

 

[JimEIV]

Bratt is 21st in 5v5 scoring rate. That's pretty good.

Timo is 112th. Nico is 120th. Jack is 125th. That is not good.

Secondary scoring is an issue, but our top guys are not getting it done 5v5 and that is a bigger issue.

18th in the league 5v5 in scoring rate(it's higher on raw numbers but we've played more games).

If not for a red hot PP early our top guys have not been producing well. And even that was in large part due to Noesen.

Those 4 guys are among the best in the league in scoring.

Bratt is 11th in the league in scoring, Jack is 13th, Nico is 45th, Timo is 89th. 2 players in the top 15 and 4 of our guys in the top 100... that's pretty damn good... yet you are asking more of them...seems a bit unrealistic.

I understand your point on 5v5 scoring but you can't overlook the overall contributions that these players are making to the success we have had. And they have been significant contributions.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Lol at ignoring luck in small sample sizes

Its HOCKEY. No other sport has such random oddities

 

[MadDevil]

Lol at ignoring luck in small sample sizes

Its HOCKEY. No other sport has such random oddities

The word "luck" really triggers some people for some reason.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

The word "luck" really triggers some people for some reason.

Because it can and is used to hand wave almost anything.

Bratt is 21st in 5v5 scoring rate. That's pretty good.

Timo is 112th. Nico is 120th. Jack is 125th. That is not good.

Secondary scoring is an issue, but our top guys are not getting it done 5v5 and that is a bigger issue.

18th in the league 5v5 in scoring rate(it's higher on raw numbers but we've played more games).

If not for a red hot PP early our top guys have not been producing well. And even that was in large part due to Noesen.

Jack as a 5v5 player this year has been super disappointing. For the first 25/30 games I was hoping he just needed to get back up to speed, but I'm not so sure anymore. Needs to pick it up.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I get that their overall production looks good and they have been carrying the team up to this point, but I haven’t been all that impressed with our top guys at 5v5. The whole team has been generally offensively anemic at even strength.

It makes me question whether they can produce at an “elite” level when they’re asked to play a more structured responsible game (AKA not Lindy hockey). It’s pretty annoying that we are several years into it with this core and we still have these kind of lingering question marks.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I get that their overall production looks good and they have been carrying the team up to this point, but I haven’t been all that impressed with our top guys at 5v5. The whole team has been generally offensively anemic at even strength.

It makes me question whether they can produce at an “elite” level when they’re asked to play a more structured responsible game (AKA not Lindy hockey). It’s pretty annoying that we are several years into it with this core and we still have these kind of lingering question marks.

Isn't it fair to say that some time is needed to find that perfect balance between what you dub Lindy hockey and the type of hockey that they are playing now?

The advanced numbers show that we're driving the play and generating the chances at 5 on 5. That is the first step. But when you hit a finishing lull the way the majority of the team has since the break, I am not surprised to see the team try to cheat a bit more for offense because it's not coming naturally. And I think that, in turn, has gotten them away from the defensive stronghold they had through December.

I think that this type of reaction is overblown, personally. The team has played very well overall through the first half of the season. They're currently in a slump. I don't expect it to be something that continues through the remainder of the season.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I get that their overall production looks good and they have been carrying the team up to this point, but I haven’t been all that impressed with our top guys at 5v5. The whole team has been generally offensively anemic at even strength.

It makes me question whether they can produce at an “elite” level when they’re asked to play a more structured responsible game (AKA not Lindy hockey). It’s pretty annoying that we are several years into it with this core and we still have these kind of lingering question marks.

We only have 2 guys that have a credible chance of breaking the franchise points record in a single season while playing very strong team defense. #FraudWatch

 

[Triumph]

Literally any team playing -13 total goals in xG 5v5 over half a season would have questions about it. Just no way to overcome that kind of shooting luck. A person who is inclined towards thinking about history might think about the 1994 and 1995 Devils teams.

There aren't any questions for me.

 

[JimEIV]

And I will throw this out there...

If you don't think the attention to defense that lhas led to all the 20 shot games, has some level of compromise for the offense, you're nuts.


Just a general observation.

 

[NJDfan86]

the last 25 games Devils shooting percentages @ 5v5

Jack - 7.58%
Timo - 6.25%
Haula - 2.94%
Dougie - 2.2%
4th line - all 0.

That's an awful lot of minutes where the pucks are going in at much lower rates than they should. That doesn't mean the Devils shouldn't be looking for offense, because they should be, but I'd be surprised if the anemic performances continue at the pace they have.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Where trade for bottom 6 help

 

[NJDfan86]

Because it can and is used to hand wave almost anything.

Man I can't believe the puck bounced off the glass and into the net! That was an incredibly favorable instance of random variance!.....sounds a lot like humans actually talk, right?

 

[Nocashstyle]

the last 25 games Devils shooting percentages @ 5v5

Jack - 7.58%
Timo - 6.25%
Haula - 2.94%
Dougie - 2.2%
4th line - all 0.

That's an awful lot of minutes where the pucks are going in at much lower rates than they should. That doesn't mean the Devils shouldn't be looking for offense, because they should be, but I'd be surprised if the anemic performances continue at the pace they have.

Yep, that’s unsustainably bad…and they still won a majority of those games too.

That SHOULD correct itself. But like you said, that doesn’t mean a bottom 6 upgrade isn’t need, but at the same time, the sky isn’t falling either.

 

[dgibb10]

I get that their overall production looks good and they have been carrying the team up to this point, but I haven’t been all that impressed with our top guys at 5v5. The whole team has been generally offensively anemic at even strength.

It makes me question whether they can produce at an “elite” level when they’re asked to play a more structured responsible game (AKA not Lindy hockey). It’s pretty annoying that we are several years into it with this core and we still have these kind of lingering question marks.

We are 2nd in the league in 5v5 xGoals rate. Just struggling to finish right now

 

[MB3]

gonna say something and then run away and duck.

JT Miller for Dougie Hamilton, Seamus Casey and a 1st. Dougie would have to waive, which is tough. But..

Meier-Hishier-Noesen
Bratt-Hughes-Palat
Cotter-Miller-Mercer

A lot to love about that 3rd line. Miller preforms in the playoffs and he plays a with an edge. I understand that there've been rifts in the past but he's a pretty f***in unbelievable player.

I remember the Devils adding a guy to put them over the edge who had character concerns, wasn't universally beloved in the locker room, but played like a f***ing deranged asshole. Pretty sure that guy won a Conn Smythe in our jersey.

 

[NJDevs26]

JT Miller produces in the playoffs? Guy has twelve goals in 91 postseason games, Claude had more in one single postseason

 

[NjDevsRR]

JT Miller for Dougie Hamilton, Seamus Casey and a 1st

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

JT Miller is 32 years old lol what the hell man