Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[DerekDevils30]

23 wins on the season. Just one of them came in OT. This team gets things done in regulation and I think that bodes well come playoff time. 3 on 3 OT success doesn’t translate so I’m glad we’re not relying on skills competitions. We’re fantastic with the lead after 2 periods. The only blemish is the Leafs game which was undeserved. Of course the playoffs are a different beast but I think a lot of what we’re doing now translates nicely to the postseason.

 

[Emperoreddy]

23 wins on the season. Just one of them came in OT. This team gets things done in regulation and I think that bodes well come playoff time. 3 on 3 OT success doesn’t translate so I’m glad we’re not relying on skills competitions. We’re fantastic with the lead after 2 periods. The only blemish is the Leafs game which was undeserved. Of course the playoffs are a different beast but I think a lot of what we’re doing now translates nicely to the postseason.

Also have not lost in regulation when leading after two

 

[Alex NJD]

I think Luke Hughes has been playing like a 1D and even a top ~15 dman in the NHL over the last 15 games. All those analytics and stats seem to think so and my eyes agree

 

[Clam Jensen]

I could get on board with trading Nemo (though I do think he needs some time to ripen on the vine and he will become a top-4 D), but I need something way sexier than Bjorkstrand in return.

I know this isn’t realistic, but someone in the mold of Owen Tippet would be nice: big, fast, 25, can score…

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Nemec is on the no trade list until Kovacevic re-signs.
If Kovacevic signs at a cap hit we can afford, then we can perhaps entertain moving Nemec but we need a young forward or future no. 1 goalie (succession plan after Markstrom) in return.

He can't be used for playoff rentals. We don't need to move Nemec to be active at trade deadline. Two 2nds should be good enough to get a player like Vatrano. And to get a 4C should only cost a 3rd at best.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Nemec gets moved in a package for someone like Brady Tkachuk.

See this is my issue. He doesn’t anymore. Not even close. As I said in my other posts. High end prospects like this lose their trade value insanely fast when they are struggling in the NHL or not in the NHL at all.

Every single trade of guys like that shows this. Jiricek is exhibit A and probably the best possible comparable for what Nemec would return value wise in a trade.

Jiricek brought in 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks and a B prospect. The 2nd round pick and Winterton are a wash with the B prospect and 2nd round pick although a 2025 2nd and Winterton is better than a 2027 2nd and Hunt.

That leaves a late 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick for 1.5 years of Bjorkstrand with retention and 2.5M cap hit. That is comparable value as that is probably at least what Bjorkstrand would fetch as a return.

So as much as we’d love for Nemec to have the value that would fetch us a Tkachuk that isn’t a remotely realistic expectation at this point. And unfortunately the longer he is in the AHL the worse his value gets.

I do agree that there’s a decent chance it sucks long-term if Nemec turns out great but I’m starting to be more concerned about him being stuck in the AHL for too long and it affecting both his value and development.

As someone else mentioned above, this is all dependent on Kovacevic resigning. If they are pursuing that and get something done is when I’d look at potentially trading Nemec. How is he gonna be a full time NHL player anytime soon and develop if we have all of our RD around for multiple more years?

 

[Unknown Caller]

See this is my issue. He doesn’t anymore. Not even close. As I said in my other posts. High end prospects like this lose their trade value insanely fast when they are struggling in the NHL or not in the NHL at all.

Every single trade of guys like that shows this. Jiricek is exhibit A and probably the best possible comparable for what Nemec would return value wise in a trade.

Jiricek brought in 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks and a B prospect. The 2nd round pick and Winterton are a wash with the B prospect and 2nd round pick although a 2025 2nd and Winterton is better than a 2027 2nd and Hunt.

That leaves a late 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick for 1.5 years of Bjorkstrand with retention and 2.5M cap hit. That is comparable value as that is probably at least what Bjorkstrand would fetch as a return.

So as much as we’d love for Nemec to have the value that would fetch us a Tkachuk that isn’t a remotely realistic expectation at this point. And unfortunately the longer he is in the AHL the worse his value gets.

I do agree that there’s a decent chance it sucks long-term if Nemec turns out great but I’m starting to be more concerned about him being stuck in the AHL for too long and it affecting both his value and development.

As someone else mentioned above, this is all dependent on Kovacevic resigning. If they are pursuing that and get something done is when I’d look at potentially trading Nemec. How is he gonna be a full time NHL player anytime soon and develop if we have all of our RD around for multiple more years?

He’s been in the AHL for 14 total games this season. Fourteen. And he’s already shown that he can be excellent in the NHL as a 19 year old.

David Jiricek’s value tanked because the guy absolutely stunk in the NHL. It’s not even close to equivalent scenarios.

If you think Nemec’s value will take a hit because he’s in the AHL developing for the team that has arguably the best defense in the entire league, then just keep him and develop him.

They won’t have Hamilton, Dillon, Kovacevic, etc. forever and Nemec is going to be a top pairing stud once he develops.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

He’s been in the AHL for 14 total games this season. Fourteen. And he’s already shown that he can be excellent in the NHL as a 19 year old.

David Jiricek’s value tanked because the guy absolutely stunk in the NHL. It’s not even close to equivalent scenarios.

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If you think Nemec’s value will take a hit because he’s in the AHL developing for the team that has arguably the best defense in the entire league, then just keep him and develop him.

They won’t have Hamilton, Dillon, Kovacevic, etc. forever and Nemec is going to be a top pairing stud once he develops.

Jiricek is easily the closest comparable for many reasons. Jiricek was fine in the NHL nor is that why his value tanked. Nor are all the teams basing their opinions of the players play off those cards. Nemec may have more value but it’s not gonna be that much more. Once these top prospects get to around 20 everyday they aren’t an NHL regular their value is going down. That’s just how it goes.

I think Nemec could be a top pairing stud. But I think playing in the NHL sooner rather than later is an important part of him becoming that.

If Kovacevic resigns it is entirely likely that the devils current 3RD are here and locked-in for the next 3-4 years. Even if it’s not that long and is only another year or year and a half I think that could be pretty bad for Nemec’s value and also his development.

As anyone who’s seen my past posts on Nemec knows I’m as high on him as anyone here. But at the same time I think what I’m talking about is realistic and I am concerned about Nemec ending up mishandled and us losing out on value.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Jiricek is easily the closest comparable for many reasons. Jiricek was fine in the NHL nor is that why his value tanked. Nor are all the teams basing their opinions of the players play off those cards. Nemec may have more value but it’s not gonna be that much more. Once these top prospects get to around 20 everyday they aren’t an NHL regular their value is going down. That’s just how it goes.

I think Nemec could be a top pairing stud. But I think playing in the NHL sooner rather than later is an important part of him becoming that.

If Kovacevic resigns it is entirely likely that the devils current 3RD are here and locked-in for the next 3-4 years. Even if it’s not that long and is only another year or year and a half I think that could be pretty bad for Nemec’s value and also his development.

As anyone who’s seen my past posts on Nemec knows I’m as high on him as anyone here. But at the same time I think what I’m talking about is realistic and I am concerned about Nemec ending up mishandled and us losing out on value.

Nemec won’t be in the AHL long. The Devils have been lucky in that they haven’t really had a single injury on the backend since Luke and Pesce came back.

Nemec is going to have to step in sooner than later, whether it’s later this season or early next season.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Nemec won’t be in the AHL long. The Devils have been lucky in that they haven’t really had a single injury on the backend since Luke and Pesce came back.

Nemec is going to have to step in sooner than later, whether it’s later this season or early next season.

Agreed but barring a serious long term injury it will likely be temporary. And he’s still not going to get a lot of the Oppotunity (eg powerplay) that would help him develop into that top pairing stud.

As others have discussed the ideal long term plan would be a Dougie trade but that would be nearly impossible to work and possibly be costly.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Nemec is competing with Casey too. He’s in the NHL just about anywhere else in the league.

 

[NJDevs26]

someone must have told jack to stop being a mope in interviews because lately he's been fantastic. actually giving out answers lol

Part of that is just most of his tenure here has been miserable in terms of on ice results aside from two years ago, I’m sure there’s some general maturity in there too - the whole organization needed a maturity reality check last year and we see it more every day this season.

 

[Oneiro]

Casey is pretty much the only reason why I’d be comfortable moving Nemec.

But again, for the kind of player you want at that price, it doesn’t work cap wise. If we juggle this situation into Dougie being gone, then it’ll be interesting.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I love the idea of Bjorkstrand for his skill set. My only concern with trading for a pure winger is we just really don’t have that flexible center depth this year.

In 2022-23, we had Boqvist and Sharangovich who could slide to center in a pinch. This year, it’s Hischier-Hughes-Haula-Lazar-Dowling and that’s pretty much it. Maybe Cotter and Mercer, but I don’t think they ever really looked good at C.

That’s not even considering the elephant in the room as to whether Hughes is going to be a center come playoff time. So far his overall game is trending really well, but who knows what happens come playoff time. If Haula becomes the pseudo-center on Jack’s line, who ends up as 3C?

A high quality 3d line center is what we need to round out our roster. Not necessarily now, or this deadline - I am fine with going into the playoffs with the locker room we now have.

But eventually. A true center. A natural center. Not a hybrid forward like Haula (or the late lamented Zacha), or Cotter, or Mercer . . . Guys who can play center at a pinch but whose talents for dominating the center of the ice aren’t truly instinctive.

Shane Wright in Seattle is shaping up pretty nicely as a natural center in his rookie year, a couple of years after being drafted and curiously falling to #5 or so.

 

[Zippy316]

A high quality 3d line center is what we need to round out our roster. Not necessarily now, or this deadline - I am fine with going into the playoffs with the locker room we now have.

But eventually. A true center. A natural center. Not a hybrid forward like Haula (or the late lamented Zacha), or Cotter, or Mercer . . . Guys who can play center at a pinch but whose talents for dominating the center of the ice aren’t truly instinctive.

Shane Wright in Seattle is shaping up pretty nicely as a natural center in his rookie year, a couple of years after being drafted and curiously falling to #5 or so.

Haula is definitely a center, the current issue is just not have that flexibility to comfortably move anyone else to center.

Todd Cordell mentioned O’Reilly (4.5 AAV with 2 more years). He’s a bit on the older side at 33, but he would be an incredible addition for center on Hughes’ line or to make a strong third line.

The rental market for centers looks pretty bleak, but I do wonder if there are any centers with a year or two left the Devils could add.

 

[Triumph]

Nemec won’t be in the AHL long. The Devils have been lucky in that they haven’t really had a single injury on the backend since Luke and Pesce came back.

Nemec is going to have to step in sooner than later, whether it’s later this season or early next season.

I am not convinced that Nemec is the first callup if someone gets hurt, full stop. That's part of the issue. Now that Casey is out for a few weeks, he will be, but a healthy Casey would mean that Nemec is only the first call if an RH PKer gets hurt - not convinced he would be otherwise.

 

[NJDevs26]

I am not convinced that Nemec is the first callup if someone gets hurt, full stop. That's part of the issue. Now that Casey is out for a few weeks, he will be, but a healthy Casey would mean that Nemec is only the first call if an RH PKer gets hurt - not convinced he would be otherwise.

In a vaccum I don’t think he’s automatic either…but I think he’d be above Casey in the pecking order regardless.

 

[theoptimist]

Todd Cordell mentioned O’Reilly (4.5 AAV with 2 more years). He’s a bit on the older side at 33, but he would be an incredible addition for center on Hughes’ line or to make a strong third line.

Interesting. Keefe is familiar.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Are there any good Devils podcasts out there. The Lets Go Devils Podcasts guys are very hit or miss for me. Sometimes I feel like I’m listening to a bunch of 12 year olds and it’s just too much.

 

[Zippy316]

I am not convinced that Nemec is the first callup if someone gets hurt, full stop. That's part of the issue. Now that Casey is out for a few weeks, he will be, but a healthy Casey would mean that Nemec is only the first call if an RH PKer gets hurt - not convinced he would be otherwise.

It really would depends who gets hurt. Pesce or Kovacevic? Nemec is probably up as a PK option and to play some more defensive minutes. Luke or Hamilton? Casey might be strongly considered for his offensive game. Dillon or Siegenthaler? Probably either Hatakka or Misyul.

In all honesty, I don’t see Casey coming up to the NHL team this year unless it’s an absolute necessity. I feel like they’re just going to let him cook in the minors, especially when they have two veteran depth guys in White and DeSimone and a couple other bubble defenders like Hatakka and Misyul.

 

[My3Sons]

Nemec has probably had to completely rebuild his game and it wouldn’t shock me if he still has some shoulder issues. He hurt it at the very beginning of October. That’s only three months ago from the perspective of his body. Moreover he was playing under the Ruff regime and now has to unlearn all of that and learn what Keefe wants. Nemec’s basic instincts worked much better with Ruff. Nemec likes to wander down from the point when the puck is on the other side of the ice. Keefe’s system isn’t going to allow for that. He has to move in sync with all the other players and play a much more structured game. I have no doubt thr criticism about his AHL play is a byproduct of him still doing the things he did last season. Now they lead to hanging his partner out to dry.

If he’s a smart kid he will realize that he has to learn how to play proper defense. It may take all season. No way I’m moving him absent an overpayment.

 

[NjDevsRR]

 

[Darkauron]

HOT

 

[Clam Jensen]

Are there any good Devils podcasts out there. The Lets Go Devils Podcasts guys are very hit or miss for me. Sometimes I feel like I’m listening to a bunch of 12 year olds and it’s just too much.

Devils insiders is far and away the best but I haven’t listened since they went behind a paywall a couple years back. PDO cast gives the devils a lot of love but theyre not devils specific.

 

[Nubmer6]

The Lets Go Devils Podcasts guys are very hit or miss for me. Sometimes I feel like I’m listening to a bunch of 12 year olds and it’s just too much.

And yet you read the comments on this board?