Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Devs3cups]

Luke has been very productive as of late. Love that.

He had a slow start, even though he looked good. Coming back from injury and no training camp will do that.

1 assist in his first 10 games. 14 Points in the 18 games since then. 9 points in his last 10.

That's with a vastly improved defensive game. He's outstanding. We're blessed to have him for years to come.

 

[JimEIV]

Cotter and Haula are also having a slew of bad luck. Their PDOs are well under 100. At some point that will start to normalize and they will start scoring again. Noesen has spent enough time with them his PDO is down as well.

There's a whole bunch of guys that I just don't trust to deliver during crunch time.
Cotter is an unknown. I simply don't believe in Haula, Bastian or Tatar to deliver in tight games... Palat as well but he has actually stepped up for us and has a history of playoff success...just seems that part of his career is in the rearview mirror.

I think they can play solid, safe hockey. Just not much more.

 

[My3Sons]

There's a whole bunch of guys that I just don't trust to deliver during crunch time.
Cotter is an unknown. I simply don't believe in Haula, Bastian or Tatar to deliver in tight games... Palat as well but he has actually stepped up for us and has a history of playoff success...just seems that part of his career is in the rearview mirror.

I think they can play solid, safe hockey. Just not much more.

the fourth liners play there for a reason. I don't think any team can count on fourth liners to score in the clutch. We will see what shakes out with the third line. It's been a hodgepodge so far. Basically the revolving door of wingers with Jack/Bratt and Timo/Hischier end up on the third line so it's not a surprise to me they haven't been able to find chemistry. Cotter at least provides some physical play and effort. Mercer will almost certainly hit his 20 goals and 40 plus points. That's about what you expect from him. The guy I'd like to see offer more is Haula but I really think Keefe's system puts a big weight on the center for defense and it's hard to create on offense if you aren't really skilled at it.

 

[JimEIV]

the fourth liners play there for a reason. I don't think any team can count on fourth liners to score in the clutch. We will see what shakes out with the third line. It's been a hodgepodge so far. Basically the revolving door of wingers with Jack/Bratt and Timo/Hischier end up on the third line so it's not a surprise to me they haven't been able to find chemistry. Cotter at least provides some physical play and effort. Mercer will almost certainly hit his 20 goals and 40 plus points. That's about what you expect from him. The guy I'd like to see offer more is Haula but I really think Keefe's system puts a big weight on the center for defense and it's hard to create on offense if you aren't really skilled at it.

I don't really care about regular season production per se...I mean I do, but I'm more interested in seeing some of those bottom 6 guys showing flashes of heroics. It's just not there.

I think Mercer has actually shown some signs, he just can't finish right now...but he has made some incredible passes and put himself in the right spots all year. And he's actually performed in the playoffs before. Hopefully he has a breakthrough.

But I don't feel like there is enough in the bottom 6.

And not even just from a scoring perspective but also a meanness is missing. I know no one wants to admit it, but the asshole factor is important and missing too.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Have been a pretty big supporter of Nemec on here and think there’s some serious potential there but the longer this goes the more I think trading him may make the most sense. There’s a point for a young player like him where I think being in the AHL is more harmful than good for his development and with Kovacevic’s emergence and our right side being potentially set moving forward he may be mostly in the AHL for a while still.


In speculating about potential deadline trade partners Seattle is one that makes sense to me. They’re having a tough season and seem to want to bring in some young skilled talent. We also don’t want to just bring a rental and they have some solid veteran forwards with 2-3 years left at reasonable cap hits. Some guys that come to mind.

Bjorkstrand - 2 years at 5.4M
Schwartz - 2 years at 5.5M
Gourde - 1 year at 5.17M (good deadline otherwise too?)
Burakovsky - 3 years at 5.5M
Mcann - 3 years at 5M (long shot)

Varying calibre of players there but think they could all be involved in a deal somehow along with some of Seattle’s prospects and retention.

For example
To NJ:
Oliver Bjorkstrand (50% retained)
Ryan Winterton (2 years left on ELC)
2025 2nd round pick

To Seattle:
Nemec


Might not be as much value as you want for Nemec but think it’s realistic and his value is only going to drop the longer he’s stuck behind Dougie, Pesce, and Kovacevic and in the AHL. Also thought about including Gourde retained but not sure how that would work cap wise unless Haula is going back the other way.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

we have plenty of "meanness". I dont care about any of that. Get the best players possible for the middle 6.

Have been a pretty big supporter of Nemec on here and think there’s some serious potential there but the longer this goes the more I think trading him may make the most sense. There’s a point for a young player like him where I think being in the AHL is more harmful than good for his development and with Kovacevic’s emergence and our right side being potentially set moving forward he may be mostly in the AHL for a while still.


In speculating about potential deadline trade partners Seattle is one that makes sense to me. They’re having a tough season and seem to want to bring in some young skilled talent. We also don’t want to just bring a rental and they have some solid veteran forwards with 2-3 years left at reasonable cap hits. Some guys that come to mind.

Bjorkstrand - 2 years at 5.4M
Schwartz - 2 years at 5.5M
Gourde - 1 year at 5.17M (good deadline otherwise too?)
Burakovsky - 3 years at 5.5M
Mcann - 3 years at 5M (long shot)

Varying calibre of players there but think they could all be involved in a deal somehow along with some of Seattle’s prospects and retention.

For example
To NJ:
Oliver Bjorkstrand (50% retained)
Ryan Winterton (2 years left on ELC)
2025 2nd round pick

To Seattle:
Nemec


Might not be as much value as you want for Nemec but think it’s realistic and his value is only going to drop the longer he’s stuck behind Dougie, Pesce, and Kovacevic and in the AHL. Also thought about including Gourde retained but not sure how that would work cap wise unless Haula is going back the other way.

that would be a brutal trade for us

 

[Captain3rdLine]

we have plenty of "meanness". I dont care about any of that. Get the best players possible for the middle 6.



that would be a brutal trade for us

Why do you say that? The value of top prospects is almost like a cars value once they reach the NHL/AHL level and their 20s. Another year and a half of Nemec being mostly in the AHL and you could probably cut that trade return in half at least.

The return is a top 6 forward for a year and a half at great value. Analytically good, always healthy and consistently solid production. Winterton is not a A prospect but one that I like who could provide some value next year on his ELC and then develop into a solid player.

 

[My3Sons]

I don't really care about regular season production per se...I mean I do, but I'm more interested in seeing some of those bottom 6 guys showing flashes of heroics. It's just not there.

I think Mercer has actually shown some signs, he just can't finish right now...but he has made some incredible passes and put himself in the right spots all year. And he's actually performed in the playoffs before. Hopefully he has a breakthrough.

But I don't feel like there is enough in the bottom 6.

And not even just from a scoring perspective but also a meanness is missing. I know no one wants to admit it, but the asshole factor is important and missing too.

Nobody wants more violence from our bottom six than me and I agree I'd like to add a forward to cheap shot the best players on the other team. But it's been ok. NJ has pushed back this season. They handled Bunting well last game and even Siegs got in on the act. Look at today. Cotter and Dillon answered the bell without hesitation and they still have Noesen and Kovacevic and that assumes MacDermid doesn't play. I think the playoffs are less about the violence as they roll along. Pretty much everyone is broken by the third round. It's more slog and misery than it is antics. I think the important thing is that when the assholes show up you put them in their place. Most NHL guys are frauds when it comes to being tough among their peers. None of the asses will fight a guy well above their weight class and most dont' want to fight anyone even up with them. Bunting turtled against Dillon last game and didn't really want to go at it with Siegenthaler. I agree I'd like to add a forward to cheap shot the guys on the other team who can play on the fourth line instead of Tatar or Bastian in the playoffs. I like Bastian but if he's limited by that face shield I'm not sure how hard he can play when it gets ugly.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Why do you say that? The value of top prospects is almost like a cars value once they reach the NHL/AHL level and their 20s. Another year and a half of Nemec being mostly in the AHL and you could probably cut that trade return in half at least.

trading Nemec for a 30 year old 2nd line wing would be absolutely horrible asset management.

 

[Classic Devil]

Have been a pretty big supporter of Nemec on here and think there’s some serious potential there but the longer this goes the more I think trading him may make the most sense. There’s a point for a young player like him where I think being in the AHL is more harmful than good for his development and with Kovacevic’s emergence and our right side being potentially set moving forward he may be mostly in the AHL for a while still.


In speculating about potential deadline trade partners Seattle is one that makes sense to me. They’re having a tough season and seem to want to bring in some young skilled talent. We also don’t want to just bring a rental and they have some solid veteran forwards with 2-3 years left at reasonable cap hits. Some guys that come to mind.

Bjorkstrand - 2 years at 5.4M
Schwartz - 2 years at 5.5M
Gourde - 1 year at 5.17M (good deadline otherwise too?)
Burakovsky - 3 years at 5.5M
Mcann - 3 years at 5M (long shot)

Varying calibre of players there but think they could all be involved in a deal somehow along with some of Seattle’s prospects and retention.

For example
To NJ:
Oliver Bjorkstrand (50% retained)
Ryan Winterton (2 years left on ELC)
2025 2nd round pick

To Seattle:
Nemec


Might not be as much value as you want for Nemec but think it’s realistic and his value is only going to drop the longer he’s stuck behind Dougie, Pesce, and Kovacevic and in the AHL. Also thought about including Gourde retained but not sure how that would work cap wise unless Haula is going back the other way.

Bjorkstrand is a great target. I don't know about trading Nemec, though. I'd kinda rather trade Hamilton in the offseason and let Nemec and Casey fight for that roster spot.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

trading Nemec for a 30 year old 2nd line wing would be absolutely horrible asset management.

Horrible asset management would be holding onto him while he’s sitting in the AHL with his value tanking. Look at Holtz. Traded him for a 4th liner a year and a half later than I’m talking about trading Nemec.

That’s also a gross miscaracterization of that trade. Apart from the fact that he’s not even 30 yet, you’re getting retention and with that great value cap hit wise, you’re getting a solid Center prospect and a 2nd round pick. Don’t think it’s that far off the mark but could see an argument for more to come back

But as I said, the value of top prospects who aren’t playing in the NHL or are struggling goes down incredibly fast.

Bjorkstrand is a great target. I don't know about trading Nemec, though. I'd kinda rather trade Hamilton in the offseason and let Nemec and Casey fight for that roster spot.

I would rather that too but Dougie has a huge contract and a no-trade clause. It would be very difficult to swing and if we somehow found a suitor that Dougie is okay with we are probably paying them to take him.

The problem is if Nemec gets stuck in the AHL for another a year and a half plus. At that point his value is probably a lot less than what I just mentioned.

 

[MB3]

I really hope the devils don’t send nemec for a package of players and picks.

if they send nemec, I hope it’s Nemec for a stud that checks all the boxes. Not a middle six guy, a prospect and a pick.

Or I hope it’s Nemec in a larger Devils package for a legitimate star - like the Brady Tkachuk move that I can’t stop praying about.

 

[Andre Palot]

I like the idea of Pius Suter if we decide to go bargain shopping

- Great plenty killer
- Great contract for a contender like us who are currently up against the cap ($1.6 million. Contract ends this season)
- Plays both center and wing
- Under 30. Always a plus.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I really hope the devils don’t send nemec for a package of players and picks.

if they send nemec, I hope it’s Nemec for a stud that checks all the boxes. Not a middle six guy, a prospect and a pick.

Or I hope it’s Nemec in a larger Devils package for a legitimate star - like the Brady Tkachuk move that I can’t stop praying about.

Calling Bjorkstrand a middle 6 forward is stupid.

And unfortunately at this point Nemec is not pulling anything close to a Brady Tkachuk back unless there’s other major pieces in play. Nor would it work for us cap wise unless Dougie is somehow gone. Not sure what other major pieces we could offer that would make that work. Also highly doubt Brady Tkachuk is going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The other option I’d be open to is trading Nemec for a similar level forward prospect. Anyone got any names that might make sense?

 

[Oneiro]

Tough part of a Nemec trade right now is that if you move up from the Bjorkstrand / Palmieri tier for a player you think is worth dealing a top D prospect, you need some cap gymnastics to make it work.

I’m not entirely opposed to it. There are a lot of reasons - Casey, losing perceived value, Dougie deal is complex, questions about Nemec’s overall improvement. Yeah I would love to have a player that makes the deal make sense - basically another Meier level guy, sure - but I think it doesn’t make sense cap wise even if you move Dougie / Palat next year. We’ve done well with our cap but even we have our squeeze now.

 

[MB3]

Calling Bjorkstrand a middle 6 forward is stupid.

And unfortunately at this point Nemec is not pulling anything close to a Brady Tkachuk back unless there’s other major pieces in play. Nor would it work for us cap wise unless Dougie is somehow gone. Not sure what other major pieces we could offer that would make that work. Also highly doubt Brady Tkachuk is going anywhere anytime soon.

Middle 6 forward means 2nd or 3rd line. What do you call a 29 year old who’s never broken 30 goals or 60 points?

I’ll save you the google search; he’s currently 6th in ATOI for Seattle forwards. If a number scale goes from 1-12, would you consider ‘6’ to be somewhere in the middle?

 

[Oneiro]

I like the idea of Pius Suter if we decide to go bargain shopping

- Great plenty killer
- Great contract for a contender like us who are currently up against the cap ($1.6 million. Contract ends this season)
- Plays both center and wing
- Under 30. Always a plus.

Yeah he’s low key a guy I’ve wanted on the team the past few years.

It’ll be interesting to see what they do in the summer. Evans + Suter would be pricey for a fourth line but probably one of the best in the league. And plenty of opportunity for both guys to play up in the lineup.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Middle 6 forward means 2nd or 3rd line. What do you call a 29 year old who’s never broken 30 goals or 60 points?

I’ll save you the google search; he’s currently 6th in ATOI for Seattle forwards. If a number scale goes from 1-12, would you consider ‘6’ to be somewhere in the middle?

He’s also a close 2nd on Seattle in points and goals and was last year as well with 59 points. Is also on pace to be a 20+ goal guy for his 7th straight season (25 goal pace over those seasons) and 50+ points guy for the 6th time in his last 7 seasons.

Calling him a middle 6 forward is disingenuous. Anyone putting up 50+ points isn’t a 3rd liner even if they’re 6th in ATOI. He’s a 2nd line forward. Probably as close if not closer to a 1st line forward as a 3rd line one. And he’s an extremely efficient and durable one who would be on a great contract in the hypothetical I did.

 

[Satans Hockey]

Nobody wants more violence from our bottom six than me and I agree I'd like to add a forward to cheap shot the best players on the other team. But it's been ok. NJ has pushed back this season. They handled Bunting well last game and even Siegs got in on the act. Look at today. Cotter and Dillon answered the bell without hesitation and they still have Noesen and Kovacevic and that assumes MacDermid doesn't play. I think the playoffs are less about the violence as they roll along. Pretty much everyone is broken by the third round. It's more slog and misery than it is antics. I think the important thing is that when the assholes show up you put them in their place. Most NHL guys are frauds when it comes to being tough among their peers. None of the asses will fight a guy well above their weight class and most dont' want to fight anyone even up with them. Bunting turtled against Dillon last game and didn't really want to go at it with Siegenthaler. I agree I'd like to add a forward to cheap shot the guys on the other team who can play on the fourth line instead of Tatar or Bastian in the playoffs. I like Bastian but if he's limited by that face shield I'm not sure how hard he can play when it gets ugly.

Who needs more violence from the bottom 6 when you got Bratt Bombs

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I would need more years of control to move Nemec, 2 isn’t enough. Gourde for picks/ lesser prospects would be who I’d target if the money works out.

 

[MB3]

Calling him a middle 6 forward is disingenuous. Anyone putting up 50+ points isn’t a 3rd liner even if they’re 6th in ATOI. He’s a 2nd line forward.

I am still struggling to figure out how calling a ~20 goal, 45 point forward who's had middle-6 deployment this season a "middle 6 winger" is.... sorry, looking for your words to not misquote you: "Stupid" and "Disingenuous".

It's not an insult. That's just not really the type of forward who costs a player like Nemec, and the Devils (owners of three (3) second round picks already) shouldn't be in the business of making 1-for-3+ trades.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I would need more years of control to move Nemec, 2 isn’t enough. Gourde for picks/ lesser prospects would be who I’d target if the money works out.

Ya that was probably my biggest gripe about my own idea. 1 year or 2 more of control would be ideal but also less likely unless the other team is completely selling everything. Tried offsetting it a bit with Winterton (who I really like) and a 2nd.

3 years of Mcann at 5M would the home run long shot from Seattle. Would be very unlikely as he’s probably their best player and still only 28 but maybe if they’re really thinking future and want to run Beniers and Wright as their 1-2 punch.

I am still struggling to figure out how calling a ~20 goal, 45 point forward who's had middle-6 deployment this season a "middle 6 winger" is.... sorry, looking for your words to not misquote you: "Stupid" and "Disingenuous".

It's not an insult. That's just not really the type of forward who costs a player like Nemec, and the Devils (owners of three (3) second round picks already) shouldn't be in the business of making 1-for-3+ trades.

Not even worth having a debate about disingenuous with someone who’s calling a player who put up 59 points last year and is on pace for 56 this year a 45 point forward.

Also 1 for 3+ trades mean absolutely nothing when the devils are getting immediately better as a team. The 2 added pieces are to offset some of the long term value which is an entirely reasonable thing to do. We’re unlikely to get a direct 1 for 1 value swap on a Nemec trade and as I’ve mentioned his value is going to keep dropping a ton at this rate.

 

[Triumph]

For example
To NJ:
Oliver Bjorkstrand (50% retained)
Ryan Winterton (2 years left on ELC)
2025 2nd round pick

To Seattle:
Nemec

I don't mind this. It's at least in the ballpark of the right value.

What Fitzgerald has to think about is, will the Devils ever field a D with Nemec, Casey, Silayev, and L. Hughes? Is that where he wants the Devils' D to be in 2026-27? And if not, which guy has to go? We know Hughes isn't going to go for two reasons, Silayev has limited value because he's in Russia which can function as a no-trade clause, Casey was a 2nd round pick - the odd man out here is theoretically Nemec. Now if Seattle is willing to do Casey for Bjorkstrand at 50% retention, I think about that too, but I kind of doubt that they are with Montour and Dunn in the fold. That's why a Casey trade is almost impossible to win, it's just not a position and player type that teams are willing to throw premium assets at anymore.

The counterpoint to Nemec's trade value cratering is that if he gets back to the NHL and does well, that all goes away very fast. The Devils demoted Larsson in 2013-14 for an extended stretch in his D+3, they signed him to a long-term deal after his D+4 and traded him for a 1st line wing a year older with a more expensive contract that had a year less left on his contract after his D+5. Larsson also totally remade himself, he was drafted rather bizarrely as an offensive D who could move the puck and settled into being a physical 2nd pair guy who can handle D-zone starts and munch minutes.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Bjorkstrand for Nemec would be one of the worst trades ever.

Sure, Nemec started slow this year, but he’s a legit bluechip prospect. A 2nd overall pick who has lived up to the billing since his selection. Trading that for Oliver freaking Bjorkstrand is insanity.

Nemec gets moved in a package for someone like Brady Tkachuk.